• JCB Triumph Hurdle

    HEADLINES

    Nicky Henderson has trained 6 winners going back to First Bout in 1985

    Barry Geraghty has ridden 5 of the last 16 winners

    21 mares priced 14/1 and under have run. 3 won, 8 others placed

    Last seven winners all ran in either the Spring or Finesse Hurdle last time out

    Only one winner in 31 years had raced only once over hurdles in GB or Ire

    Five of the last seven finished in first four in the February Leopardstown G1

    11 of the last 14 from the front four in the market

    Last 20 winners last ran between 19 and 55 days before

    Only one of the last 14 had their first hurdle run after 10th January

    15 of the last 16 to have raced on the Flat, had raced at least at 1m 4 f

    Summary

    Race Distance - 2 miles and about a furlong. Started hurdle career between 20th October and 31st January. Winner (if rated) will be at least 80 on the flat or placed in G1 hurdle. All placed horses (if rated) should be over 70. If ran on the flat was tried at some stage over 1m4f or has already won a G1 hurdle. Won or placed at least G2 last time out. Between two and five runs over hurdles. Will have won at least 50% of all hurdle starts. Will be unbeaten in UK or IRE or have run at least three times over hurdles. Last run between 19 and 55 days ago. Irish trained coming to the fore. N Henderson, P Nicholls and A King do well. Not Pipe trained. No headgear unless its the first time in NH races. Any price. Mares do well with their 7lb allowance. Favourite due to get beaten.

  • Evidence

    PRICE - Between 2008 and 2011 none of the first four home started bigger than 20/1. Despite Countrywide Flame at 33s in 2012, the scribes might be right to say that 'because of the Fred Winter and small fields, outsiders winning the Triumph will never happen again'. There has been nothing over 10/1 since 2012, although Tiger Roll was only 6th favourite at 10/1 and Farclas 9/1 5th fav of nine runners last year. Only 12 placed horses in past 22 races to have started at greater than 20/1. Sayo 33s in third last year but the in previous three years all placed 12/1 and under. In 2015 the 1-2-3 Henderson trio all 8/1 and under. 2014 Kentucky Hyden second at 20s, 2013 Sametegal 3rd at 33s. Countrywide Flame, the first winner over 20/1 since Duke Of Monmouth ‘92. Since the introduction of the Fred Winter in 2005, apart from Farclas, Tiger Roll and C Flame, all other eleven winners came from the first four in the betting. To be fair, as a clerk, that would be the spread I would expect.

     

    Only 7 from the last 31 Triumph Hurdle favourites have won (Including three of the last four, Defi Du Seuil on reflection, was a very generous 5/2. Ivanovich Gorbatov 9/2 and Peace and Co 2/1. Before that they were Detroit City '06, Katarino '99, Mysilv '94 at 2/1). Defi makes it 4 favs in the last 20. On course last year getting Apples Shakira beat when backed from 6/4 to about evens was one of the bookmaker results of the Festival, it being the first fav on Gold Cup day.

    12 of last 26 were favourite or second favourite last time out. Farclas joint 2nd fav in Leopardstown Spring Hurdle, Defi Du Seuil had been a short priced jolly in his previous six and won them all. Pleased to see him return to form this season for Mr Hobbs. (not Tiger Roll, Our Conor, Snowdrop or Zarkandar. Tiger Roll was 16s in the Leopardstown Spring G1).
     

    This century 50 beaten favourites (BF) last time out have turned up here. Two winners, Ivanovich beaten at 8/13 Leopardstown and Celestial Halo winner here at 5/1 in 2008, previously BF at 2/5. None ran last year, two in 2017, finished 3rd and 6th.

     

    TRAINERS N Henderson has won 6 of these, the stable got the trifecta up in 2015 paying £95. He had the 2nd in 2014 and the 3rd in 2011. (two unpl 2013 including 5/2 fav, no runner 2012). Charli Parcs 6th 2017. Apples Shakira must have been a bitter disappointment last year, a well beaten fourth. Mirroring that B Geraghty holds the record for the most jockey wins with five. Sir Erec, Fakir d'Oudairies. Adjali was looking the best from N Henderson until blown away on Trials day. Richard Johnson has now won three. A King, two winners, two seconds and two thirds in the last ten. 10 runners in total over the last four, Redicean 7/1 last year, all finished well down the field. P. Hobbs - three winners in last 13, Defi Du Seuil his first runner in the past four years. P Nicholls two winners in last eleven, plus the placed horses behind Our Conor '03 and Calipto unlucky with the tack in 2014. No runner last two years. 2016 Clan Des Obeaux best of his five runnners in 6th. Pipe stable - This race provided Martin with his first Festival winner in Baron Blakeney 1981 at 66/1. Only Kissair '95 has given success since. Only six runners in the last fourteen, all well unplaced.

     

     

    Irish trained - Five winners in the last six 1-2-3 last year, 2-3-4-5 in 2017. To be fair in the Belfast Preview night both David Casey as Willie's assistant trainer and G Elliott felt that Defi Du Seuil was unbeatable. It's worth attending, that Grahams evening. Irish trained hammered it in 2016 with first four home. Aiden/Joseph with Ivanovich followed by three from W Mullins. Tiger Roll and Our Conor had first stopped the Irish drought. 4 out of first 5 home in 2002 (Scolardy, trained by W Mullins) had been the last. Irish trained have only ever won 8 Triumph Hurdles. All three unplaced 2015. As with many Festival races, improving all the time.

     

    WILLIE MULLINS - Poor enough record, they say. Hasn't won it since Scolardy 2002, as we say. 2018, 2nd, 3rd and 5th. 2017, 3rd, 2016 2nd (Apples Jade), 3rd and 4th. 2015 only 5th. 2014. Getting there?

     

    Farclas, Tiger Roll and Our Conor came straight from the Leopardstown G1. Scolardy ’02 won the same race when it was a G3 and Commanche Court ‘97 won Grade 3 event at Punchestown in mid February. Last year Farclas had been 2nd to Mr Adjudicator at Leopardstown, positions reversed here. In 2017 Leop G1 Mega Fortune won from Bapaume, then second and third here to Defi Du Seuil. In 2016 Footpad won in Leopardstown from Lets Dance and Ivanovich. Sir Erec, 109 rated on the Flat made all and galloped clear from a staying on Gardens Of Babylon.

     

    FORM RACES - Defi Di Seuil, Peace and Co followed Katchit in being the only ones to complete the JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial at Cheltenham January/Triumph double since former’s inception in 1985. Fakir D'Oudairies. Hors La Loi did a double up in '99 with the Supreme Novice. Franchoek won the Finesse '08 but beaten by Celestial Halo in the big one. 2013 Rolling Star then fav for this only finished 5th. 2014 Le Rocher didnt come. Last year Apples Shakira blown out at the Festival. Had strolled it in the same manner as Defi Du Seuil. Interestingly, Defi's time at Cheltenham January was 4 mins 17s on 'very soft' and 5 secs faster than Peace and Co in 2015 and 9 secs faster than that of Apples Shakira, all on different varieties of soft ground. Fakir D'Oudairies on good to soft ground Triumph course 4 mins 6 secs.

     

    Last Haydock Victor Ludorum winner to be involved in the finish of this was Ninja, 2nd at 50/1 in ’90. But Une Artiste doubled up with the 4 yr old handicap 2012. Frodon 8th in the Triumph 2016 (what a daisy). Last year Turning Gold went from Haydock to be 5th in the Fred Winter, a sort of form line you'd might expect. 16th Feb 2019 as Quel Destin romped home, Stewart Machin in the commentary box said 'the winner of the Victor Ludorum hasn't won the Triumph in 50 yrs.' I'll take his word for it.

     

    Well fancied mares’ decent record with 7lb allowance. (Shawiya, Mysilv and Snowdrop all won and came here on the back of a win.). 21 have started 14/1 and under. Those 3 won and 8 others were placed (Unaccompanied 2nd in 2011). Stats not helped by Apples Shakira and Stormy Ireland, maybe overraced, beaten when fell last at 9/2. 39 others 14/1 and greater, none placed. Petite Parissienne well beaten 5th 2015 at 14s. No mares 2013 or 2012. 2016 Apples Jade 2nd at 12s, Lets Dance 11s and 4th. Giving Glances. Surin, Laskadine.

     

    4 from last 17 won Adonis Hurdle at Kempton (including Zarkandar and Soldatino). 13 didn’t. 2014 Activial and 2013 Irish Saint both went to Aintree instead. Neither won there. Beltor won on the bridle at Kempton, 6th here at 7/1. 2016 Zubayr 11/2 and 13th. 2017 Master Blueyes 8/1 here and 10th. Last year Redicean 'skipped clear' at Kempton, then 7/1 and only 6th here. May not have appreciated the bog or the track. This century 14 Adonis Hurdle winners have run in this. Apart from the 4 winners, Well Chief 2nd. (Also Flying Tiger, 4th at Kempton, won Fred Winter in 2017).
     

    Zarkandar only winner in 30 odd yrs to be a once-raced hurdler. Didn't work for Saldier last year or Zubayr in 2016. No Adonis winner to double up since Zarkandar in 2011 and Soldatino 2010. Check

     

    Winner of Juvenile Hurdle at Cheltenham in November has provided a placed horse in this in 6 of the past 11 runnings. Not in 2018. Last season won by Apples Shakira from Gumball. Smugly thought Shakira 'too small' in the parade ring that drizzly November day and laid accordingly. Great decision, Bryan, she only won by 17 lengths. 2017 Won by Defi Du Seuil. Not work in 2016. 2015 Hargam 3rd, 2014 Guitar Pete only placed in both. Far West 2nd here 2013. Grandouet placed in both in 2011. '10 Barizan was second in both races.

      

    Defi Du Seuil, Countrywide Flame and Katchit both broke a long term stat in that they have been the only three of the last 21 to have run over hurdles in Britain or Ireland before October 20th. Defi cruised around Ffos Las on 15th Oct, the Flame had actually been out twice by that date. Ivanovich 27th December, Peace And Co 13th Dec, Tiger Roll first run 10th Nov, Our Conor 11th Nov. P Nichols had Zarkardar following Ncky's Soldatino in that their first run in UK was the Kempton Adonis at the end of February.

     

    Against that, since the Fred Winter only Zarkander in 2011 made UK or Irish hurdling debut after 10th January.

     

    WINNING FORM - Farclas became the first maiden to win this since David Elsworth's Heighlin in 1980. Ivanovich Gorbatov, Tiger Roll, Zarkandar, Made In Japan ’04 and Celestial Halo '08 only other 5 winners since ‘90 not to have won twice that season over hurdles. None worse than 4th last time out. The last five all ran in at least G2 last time.

     

    The last seven winners had their last run in the Finesse or the Spring Hurdle, the two before that had their last run in the Adonis.

     

    14 from last 20 won previous race. Four finished second plus Countrywide Flame finishing 3rd, Ivanovich 4th, both in the G1 at Leopardstown.

     

    Five of the last seven Triumph winners all at least in first four in G1 Leopardstown Spring Hurdle. Farclas and Tiger Roll both second, Our Conor won, Countryside Flame finished 3rd. Mr Adjudictor won at Leopardstown last year, places reversed at Cheltenham. 2013 Diakali 2nd at Leopardstown, 4th here. Both Unaccompanied and Hisaabaat won at Leopardstown before being placed here. Sir Erec (Flat Rating 109) skated clear from Garden of Babylon and Surin. Tiger Tap Tap disappointed.

     

    23 from last 27 either unbeaten in UK and Ire or ran at least 3 times previous (Not Farclas, Ivanovich, Tiger nor Celestial who had only ran twice). Zarkandar the only once raced hurdler in win in the last 31 years. (Ivanovich had 4 flat runs in Ire, Zarkandar had three in France, Countrywide Flame had 6 hurdle outings before Cheltenham).

    23 of past 25 had passed the post first in at least half their hurdle starts in UK and Ire. (Not Farclas obviously, Made In Japan, one from three, Scolardy 2002 won but was disqualified from 1st last time).

     

    Apart from Our Conor the previous 16 winners to have run on the flat all tried at distances of 1m 4f plus (including Zarkandar). Our Conor only tried up to 10 furlongs. 16 of last 25 were placed over 1 1/2 miles or further on the flat (including seven from the last eleven). Ivanovich had a Flat rating of 104. Need to have class and to stay to win this?

     

    16 of past 24 had won on a 'fast flat' track e.g. Kempton, Market Rasen. Our Conor 3.54 around Leopardstown 'fast' enough? Both Tiger Roll and Countrywide Flame won at Market Rasen. Peace and Co 4mins.1 at Donc. Not Farclas, two runs at Leopardstown had been 4 mins 6 secs. Not Defi Du Seuil. Ran at Ffos Las, Chepstow and Cheltenham. Times of 4 mins 8, Cheltenham in November, 4 mins 1 sec at Chepstow.

     

    This year's best times - Nelson River at 4 mins 7 secs into a strong headwind Chelt December 2m 1 furlong, (Storm Deirdre etc and having been there that day, I can assure you it was miserable.) Musselburgh check. Sir Erec 3mins 53s 2m 4 mins 7 G1 Leopardstown. Sir Erec's time was actually 5 secs slower the Deloitte/Chanelle Parma G1 an hour later and the elders carried 9lbs more. Adonis check

     

    Defi Du Seuil first winner of the Chepstow Finale Hurdle since Mysilv '94 did the double. Only Countrywide Flame had run in it since Mysilv and he was well beaten at Chepstow. Quel Destin bt Adjali in 4mins 2 secs over 2 miles at Chepstow and then was well beaten by Fakir D'Oudairies in the Finesse on Trials Day 2 m 1f in a time of 4 mins 6 secs good to soft.

     

    There is distant history of 4 yr olds performing well in all aged Conditions races and not following up here and in the Champion Hurdle. Do ok in the Supreme.

     

    All bar Defi Du Seuil, Peace and Co, Katchit and Zaynar of last 22 had previous run in February. All four last ran in January. Last 20 all ran between 19 and 55 days before. Farclas 40 days

     

    BREEDING - 18 from last 22 bred by a Group 1 winning sire including all of last 15 bar Soldatino and Our Conor. Former's sire Graveron never won a race and Jeremy was only placed at G1 level. Peace And Co by Falco, Tiger Roll by Authorized. Ivanovich Gorbatov by Montjeu. Defi by Voix Du Nord, a Prix Lupin winner. Farclas by Jukebox Jury, an Irish St Leger winner, who himself was by Montjeu. I remember people used to say that Montjeus don't go up hills.

      

    FLAT RATING - 57 of last 76 win and placed rated at least 70 on the flat. Mr Adjudicator 2nd at 81. 2017 - Mega Fortune 77, Best flat ratings were Landofhopeandglory 102 and Master Blue Eyes 88, both well behind. 2016 Ivanovich off 104, Who Dares Win next best flat rating off 85 finished second last. No placed horse 2015 had a flat rating though Hargam may have come close with his Listed French flat form. 2014 none of the first three over 70. Both Kentucky and Guitar Pete well under 80. 2013 Our Conor 85, placed horses ex French, no rating. Our Conor the only one of the first 8 home to have a Flat rating. 2012 all placed over 80. 13 placed recently were French NH and Flat without a rating, but Unaccompanied (2nd in '11) was rated 98, '10 Barizan was rated 86 and Alavan 110. '09 Mourad 3rd was 104. ’08 all three passed this one, Spectroscope '03 only winner since '96 rated less than 80 on the flat. This is far from an exact science. Sir Erec 109

     

    HEADGEAR - Only Zaynar '09 (cheekpieces) and Detroit City '06 (visor) of the last 38 to try over 15 years have won. Both were wearing headgear in NH races for the first time although Detroit City had won in a visor on the flat as a three yr old. None ran last year. In 2017 two ranr best Mega Fortune 2nd, 3 tried 2016 best Footpad 3rd in second time hood. 4 tried 2015, best Beltor 6th in first time hood. Guitar Pete placed 2014 in the visor he always wore.

     

    2015 - Maximum number of runners cut from 24 to 22. Don't deem to get big numbers these days, 17 the largest of the last six.

     

     

     

    NEXT RACE >

All Posts
×
×
Wealth Warning.  Any decisions made (or not) or the basis of any information in this site are the sole responsibility of the reader.  There is no obligation on me to follow my own advice.  I take no responsibility for (but am keen to hear of) any factual errors.  (Bgault01@gmail.com, @gaultstats). Previous years ‘stats on stats’ would suggest we may identify a decent priced winner from manageable groups every three or four races.  I tend to improve as a tipster as the week goes on, possibly too worried on the Tuesday.  It is believed that Savello (2014 Grand Annual) took from Golden Chieftain (2013 3m hcap chase) the record for breaking the most stats in a race.  Stands now at 8.  Cole Harden equalised with 8 in the 2015 World Hurdle.  Remember, after you have cursed/laughed at me and given up totally on trends, they will come back to bite.  Always happens.  Usually on Gold Cup Day. Oh yes, and if you're called Rory Delargy, you can't win the quiz too often.

Beware GO SEA - Groundless Optimism Syndrome Encouraged by Alcohol.  A Cotswold condition very common at this time of year.