• JCB Triumph Hurdle

    HEADLINES

    The favourite has won the last three. No Festival race this century has been won by 4 successive different favourites.

    Nicky Henderson has trained 6 winners going back to First Bout in 1985

    Barry Geraghty has ridden 5 of the last 15 winners

    19 mares 14/1 and under have run. 11 were placed

    Only one winner in 31 years had raced only once over hurdles in GB or Ire

    Four of the last 6 finished in first four in the February Leopardstown G1

    10 of the last 12 from the front three in the market

    Last 19 winners ran between 19 and 55 days before

    Summary

    Race Distance - 2 miles and about a furlong. Started hurdle career between 20th October and 31st January. Winner (if rated) will be at least 80 on the flat or placed in G1 hurdle. All placed horses (if rated) should be over 70. If ran on the flat was tried at some stage over 1m4f or has already won a G1 hurdle. Won or placed at least G2 last time out. Between two and five runs over hurdles. Will have won at least 50% of all hurdle starts. Will be unbeaten in UK or IRE or have run at least three times over hurdles. Last run between 19 and 55 days ago. Irish trained coming to the fore. N Henderson, P Nicholls and A King do well. Not Pipe trained. No headgear unless its the first time in NH races. Any price. Mares do well with their 7lb allowance. Favourite due to get beaten.

  • Evidence

    PRICE - Between 2008 and 2011 none of the first four home started bigger than 20/1. Scribes began to tell us that 'outsiders winning the Triumph would never happen again'. Then in 2012 up popped Countrywidewide Flame at 33s. Our Conor then demolished them at 4s but Tiger Roll was only 6th favourite at 10/1. 2015 the 1-2-3 Henderson trio all 8/1 and under. Only 11 placed horses in past 21 races to have started at greater than 20/1. Last two years all 12/1 and under. 2014 Kentucky Hyden second at 20s, 2013 Sametegal 3rd at 33s. Countrywide Flame, the first winner over 20/1 since Duke Of Monmouth ‘92. Since the introduction of the Fred Winter in 2005, apart from Tiger Roll and C Flame, all other ten winners came from the first four in the betting.
     

    Only 7 from the last 30 Triumph Hurdle favourites have won (Including the last three, Defi on reflection, was a very generous 5/2. Ivanovich Gorbatov 9/2 and Peace and Co 2/1. Before that they were Detroit City '06, Katarino '99, Mysilv '94 at 2/1). Defi makes it 4 favs in the last 19.

    11 of last 25 were favourite or second favourite last time out. Defi Du Seuil had been a short priced jolly in his previous six and won them all. No wonder they are disappointed this season. (not Tiger Roll, Our Conor, Snowdrop or Zarkandar. Tiger Roll was 16s in G1 Leopardstown)
     

    This century 50 beaten favourites (BF) last time out have turned up here. Two winners, Ivanovich beaten at 8/13 and Celestial Halo winner here at 5/1 in 2008, previously BF at 2/5. Two last year, finished 3rd and 6th.

     

    The last three favourites have won this. No Festival race this century has been won by 4 successive different favourites. Apples Shakira

     

    TRAINERS N Henderson has won 6 of these, the stable trifecta up in 2015 paid £95. He had the 2nd in 2014 and the 3rd in 2011. (two unpl 2013 including 5/2 fav, no runner 2012). Charli Parcs 6th last year . We Have A Dream, Apples Shakira. Mirroring that B Geraghty holds the record for the most jockey wins with five. Apples Shakira. Richard Johnson has now won three. A King, two winners, two seconds and two thirds in the last nine. 7 runners in total over the last three, all well down the field. P. Hobbs - three winners in last 12, Defi Du Seuil his first runner in the past three three years. P Nicholls two winners in last ten, plus the placed horses behind Our Conor '03 and Calipto unlucky with the tack in 2014. No runner last year. 2016 Clan Des Obeaux best of his five runnners in 6th. Pipe stable - This race provided Martin with his first Festival winner in Baron Blakeney 1981 at 66/1. Only Kissair '95 has given success since. Only six runners in the last thirteen, all well unplaced.

     

     

    Irish trained - Four winners in the last five. 2-3-4-5 last year. To be fair in the Belfast Preview night both David Casey as Willie's assistant trainer and G Elliott felt that Defi Du Seuil was unbeatable. It's worth attending, that Grahams evening. Irish trained hammered it in 2016 with first four home. Aiden/Joseph with Ivanovich followed by three from W Mullins. Tiger Roll and Our Conor had first stopped the Irish drought. 4 out of first 5 home in 2002 (Scolardy, trained by W Mullins) had been the last. Irish trained have only ever won 8 Triumph Hurdles. All three unplaced 2015.

     

    Tiger Roll and Our Conor came straight from the Leopardstown G1. Scolardy ’02 won the same race when it was a G3 and Commanche Court ‘97 won Grade 3 event at Punchestown in mid February. Last year at Leopardstown G1 Mega Fortune won from Bapaume, then second and third here. In 2016 Footpad won in Leopardstown from Lets Dance and Ivanovich. Mr Adjudicator, outstayed Farclas, Espoir D'Allen, short priced jolly, pulled too hard.

     

     

     

    FORM RACES - Defi Di Seuil and Peace and Co followed Katchit in being the only ones to complete the JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial at Cheltenham January/Triumph double since former’s inception in 1985. Apples Shakira. Hors La Loi did a double up in '99 with the Supreme Novice. Franchoek won the Finesse '08 but beaten by Celestial Halo in the big one. 2013 Rolling Star then fav for this only finished 5th. 2014 Le Rocher didnt come. This year in January Apples Shakira strolled it in the same manner as Defi Du Seuil. Interestingly, Defi's time at Cheltenham January was 5 secs faster than Peace and Co in 2015 and 9 secs faster than that of Apples Shakira, all on different varieties of soft ground.

    Last Haydock Victor Ludorum winner to be involved in the finish of this was Ninja, 2nd at 50/1 in ’90. But Une Artiste doubled up with the 4 yr old handicap 2012. Frodon 8th in the Triumph 2016. Don Bersy NR last year. Turning Gold from Cornerstone Lad at Haydock this year

     

     

    Well fancied mares’ decent record with 7lb allowance. (Shawiya, Mysilv and Snowdrop all won and came here on the back of a win.). 19 have started 14/1 and under. Those 3 won and 8 others were placed (Unaccompanied 2nd in 2011). 39 others 14/1 and greater, none placed. Petite Parissienne well beaten 5th 2015 at 14s. No mares 2013 or 2012. 2016 Apples Jade 2nd at 12s, Lets Dance 11s and 4th. Stormy Ireland, Apples Shakira.

     

    4 from last 17 won Adonis Hurdle at Kempton (including Zarkandar and Soldatino). 13 didn’t. 2014 Activial and 2013 Irish Saint both went to Aintree instead. Neither won there. Beltor won on the bridle at Kempton, 6th here at 7/1. 2016 Zubayr 11/2 and 13th. 2017 Master Blueyes 8/1 here and 10th. This century 13 Adonis Hurdle winner have run in this. Apart from the 4 winners, Well Chief 2nd. (Also Flying Tiger, 4th at Kempton, won Fred Winter in 2017).
     

    Zarkandar only winner in 30 yrs to be a once-raced hurdler. Didn't work for Zubayr in 2016. No Adonis winner to double up since Zarkandar in 2011and Soldatino 2010. Like those two Redicean won very readily at Kempton.

     

    Winner of Juvenile Hurdle at Cheltenham in November has provided a placed horse in this in 6 of the past 11 runnings. Won by Defi in last season. Not work 2016. 2015 Hargam 3rd, 2014 Guitar Pete only placed in both. Far West 2nd here 2013. Grandouet placed in both in 2011. '10 Barizan was second in both races. Apples Shakira toyed with Gumball, one of my worst lay decisions of the season, so far.

      

    Defi Du Seuil, Countrywide Flame and Katchit both broke a long term stat in that they have been the only two of the last 21 to have run over hurdles in Britain or Ireland before October 20th. Defi cruised around Ffos Las on 15th Oct, the Flame had actually been out twice by that date. Ivanovich 27th December, Peace And Co 13th Dec, Tiger Roll first run 10th Nov, Our Conor 11th Nov. P Nichols had Zarkardar following Ncky's Soldatino in that their first run in UK was the Kempton Adonis at the end of February. This broke the stat of all 37 in the previous 11 races who made their hurdle debut later than January did not win. Soldatino had won a hurdle in France. All 6 since Zarkandar out before end of January.

     

    WINNING FORM - Ivanovich, Tiger Roll, Zarkandar '11, Made In Japan ’04 and Celestial Halo '08 only 5 winners since ‘90 not to have won twice that season over hurdles. None worse than 4th last time out. The latest four ran in at least G2 last time.

    14 from last 19 won previous race. Three were second and Countrywide Flame finished 3rd, Ivanovich 4th in the G1 at Leopardstown.

     

    Four of the last six Triumph winners all at least in first four in G1 Leopardstown Hennessey Day. Tiger Roll was second to Guitar Pete, Our Conor won, Countryside Flame finished 3rd. 2013 Diakali 2nd at Leopardstown, 4th here. Both Unaccompanied and Hisaabaat won at Leopardstown before being placed here.Mr Adjudicator, outstayed Farclas, Espoir D'Allen, short priced jolly, pulled too hard.

     

    23 from last 26 either unbeaten in UK and Ire or ran at least 3 times previous (Not Ivanovich, Tiger nor Celestial who had only ran twice). Zarkandar the only once raced hurdler in win in the last 31 years. (Ivanovich had 4 flat runs in Ire, Zarkandar had three in France, Countrywide Flame had 6 hurdle outings before Cheltenham).

    23 of past 24 had passed the post first in at least half their hurdle starts in UK and Ire. (Not Made In Japan, one from three, Scolardy won but was disqualified from 1st last time).

     

    Apart from Our Conor the previous 15 winners to have run on the flat all tried at distances of 1m 4f plus (including Zarkandar). Our Conor only tried up to 10 furlongs. 15 of last 24 were placed over 1 1/2 miles or further on the flat (including six from the last ten). Ivanovich Flat rating of 104.

    16 of past 23 had won on a 'fast flat' track e.g. Kempton, Market Rasen. Our Conor 3.54 around Leopardstown 'fast' enough?. Both Tiger Roll and Countrywide Flame won at Market Rasen. Peace and Co 4mins.1 at Donc. Not Defi Du Seuil. Ran at Ffos Las, Chepstow and Cheltenham. Times of 4 mins 8, Cheltenham in November, 4 mins 1 sec at Chepstow. Mega Fortune 4mins 1 secs in the best standard time of Irish Gold Cup day.

     

    This year's best times - Apples Shakira 4 mins 5 Chelt Decmber, We Have A Dream 3 mins 46 at Musselburgh, Stormy Ireland 4 mins 12 Fairyhouse Inner course, Mr Adjudicator 4 mins 7 G1 Leopardstown. MrAdjudicator's time was the best of the day against standard and actually 2 secs faster than Samcro slightly later. He did carry 10lb less. Redicean 3 mins 50 secs for Adonis

     

    Sectional times better explained by Simon Rowlands. http://cheltenham.attheraces.com/sectional-spotlight/sectional-spotlight-juvenile-hurdlers-and-bumper-horses

     

    Defi Du Seuil first winner of the Chepstow Finale Hurdle since Mysilv '94 did the double. Only Countrywide Flame had run in it since Mysilv and he was well beaten at Chepstow. We Have A Dream bt Sussex Ranger on heavy ground, pair well clear. Defi de Suil won it on unseasonable good to soft.

    There is distant history of 4 yr olds performing well in all aged Conditions races and not following up here and in the Champion Hurdle. Do ok in the Supreme.

    All bar Defi Du Seuil, Peace and Co, Katchit and Zaynar of last 22 had previous run in February. All four last ran in January. Last 19 all ran between 19 and 55 days before.

     

    BREEDING - 17 from last 21 bred by a Group 1 winning sire including all of last fourteen bar Soldatino and Our Conor. Former's sire Graveron never won a race and Jeremy was only placed at G1 level. Peace And Co by Falco, Tiger Roll by Authorized. Ivanovich Gorbatov by Montjeu. Defi by Voix Du Nord, a Prix Lupin winner. Yes, I have no idea, too.

      

    FLAT RATING - 56 of last 73 win and placed rated at least 70 on the flat. Mega Fortune 77, Best flat ratings were Landofhopeandglory 102 and Master Blue Eyes 88, both well behind. 2016 Ivanovich off 104, Who Dares Win next best flat rating off 85 finished second last. No placed horse 2015 had a flat rating though Hargam may have come close with his Listed French flat form. 2014 none of the first three over 70. Both Kentucky and Guitar Pete well under 80. 2013 Our Conor 85, placed horses ex French, no rating. Our Conor the only one of the first 8 home to have a Flat rating. 2012 all placed over 80. Eleven placed recently were French NH and Flat without a rating, but Unaccompanied (2nd in '11) was rated 98, '10 Barizan was rated 86 and Alavan 110. '09 Mourad 3rd was 104. ’08 all three passed this one, Spectroscope '03 only winner since '96 rated less than 80 on the flat. This is far from an exact science. Mr Adjudicator rating 81

     

    HEADGEAR - Only Zaynar '09 (cheekpieces) and Detroit City '06 (visor) of the last 38 to try over 14 years have won. Both were wearing headgear in NH races for the first time although Detroit City had won in a visor on the flat as a three yr old. 2 last year best Mega Fortune 2nd, 3 tried 2016 best Footpad 3rd in second time hood. 4 tried 2015, best Beltor 6th in first time hood. Guitar Pete placed 2014 in the visor he always wore.

     

    2015 - Maximum number of runners cut from 24 to 22.

     

     

     

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Wealth Warning.  Any decisions made (or not) or the basis of any information in this site are the sole responsibility of the reader.  There is no obligation on me to follow my own advice (Gary).  I take no responsibility for (but am keen to hear of) any factual errors.  Previous years ‘stats on stats’ would suggest we may identify a decent priced winner from manageable groups every three or four races.  I tend to improve as a tipster as the week goes on, possibly too worried on the Tuesday.  It is believed that Savello (2014 Grand Annual) took from Golden Chieftain (2013 3m hcap chase) the record for breaking the most stats in a race.  Stands now at 8.  Cole Harden equalised with 8 in the 2015 World Hurdle.  Remember, after you have cursed/laughed at me and given up totally on trends, they will come back to bite.  Always happens.  Usually on Gold Cup Day

Beware GO SEA - Groundless Optimism Syndrome Encouraged by Alcohol.  A Cotswold condition very common at this time of year.