• JLT Novices Chase 2m abt 4f

    (Registered as the Golden Miller Novices Chase)

    HEADLINES

     

    All winners aged 6 or 7 years

    None of the winners previous run was in the Scilly Isles or Flogas Chases

    All seven had run within 54 days of this race

    All seven had run at the previous Festival but only three were winning there for the second time

    Irish Trained have won six of the seven

    The last 6 winners all won their last completed chase

    Six of the seven returned no bigger than 7/1

    Only one winner had less than three chase runs. He was unbeaten over fences.

    Summary

    Race Distance - 2 miles 4 furlongs. In 2014 became a Grade 1 (now making 14 in all). Had been a new race in 2011. As a Grade 1 and 2 novice chase all carry 11st 4 lbs. Mares receive 7lbs. My personal view is that the 2011 version was just OK but as the race ages, the quality is definitely improving. With Vautour and Yorkhill it seemed to rise to a new level. Not sure about 2016.

     

    Aged 6 or 7 years. Irish trained (sorry Jonjo) lead 5-1. Willie Mullins has won the last three. Quality course form becoming important or at least a Festival novice hurdle run last year. Top rated has only won it once. Take on beaten favourites last time, those that have fallen in a chase and those with less than 3 chase runs unless Mullins trained, of course. Had been placed in G1 chase or won at least a G3 last time. Ran within last 54 days and won. Novice hurdler last season.

  • Evidence

    2011 - AP got off the mark for the week on Noble Prince (rating 146, 4/1 2nd fav). He was an Irish Trained 7 yr old who hadn't been outside the first two on his three previous starts that season. His last two runs finished second in two Leopardstown Grade 1s over 2 miles. Wishful Thinking 2nd and fav top rated on 155. One mare unplaced, Blazing Tempo. One blinkered runner unplaced, Mr Thriller. Winner had previously been 5th in a County Hurdle.

     

    2012 - Sir Des Champs a 6 yr old off 148 beat Champion Court 150 and For Non Stop 151. Winner unbeaten over 3 that season and 3/1 2nd fav. Previous two wins were small field Irish G2s over 2m 4f. Zaynar only blinkered runner and unplaced. Winner had won 2011 Martin Pipe Hurdle and was then 2nd in 2013 Gold Cup.

     

    2013 - Benefficient 147 came back up the run in to beat Dynaste 161 by 4l. Had won a two finisher Irish Arkle as his prep. 20s was big. Three seven yr olds filled the places. Marito may have got close but fell two out. No runners blinkered. Bryan Cooper's career took off.
     

    2014 - Jonjo said it was his week's best chance and Taquin De Seuil 7/1 ridden by a very sore AP got up to beat Uxizandre. Taquin De Seuil won both here and at the Paddy Power Meeting 2013. Was a Class 2 Chase Course winner and over the trip. Rated 147. Won last time. Not out of first three that season. A seven yr old beat a six year old. Latter wore cheekpieces.
     

    2015 - Ruby made all on Vautour, rating at the time of 154. Impressive. Backed from 5/2 to 6/4 during the day. A long way behind were Apache Stronghold and Valseur Lido beaten 15l. Ages were 6, 7 and 6 respectively. Vautour's third chase. Form figures 121. Came here from winning G2 over 19f at Leoperdstown in January.

     

    2016 - There was a mess at the start when Zabana unseated Davy Russell and Outlander was hampered. A 7yr old Black Hercules jogged it. Off 152 backed down to 4/1co fav of three. (after all the scribes saying he should be in the 4 miler), Bristol De Mai (top rated) caught L'Ami Serge for second on the run in. A surprise, that.

     

    2017 - Willie had had no winners in first two days with Douvan bat at 1/4. People were saying Willie had lost the power of his legs. A G1 four timer kicked off by Yorkhill 6/4 fav settled that.

     

    All seven winners ran at the previous years Festival. Willie Mullins has trained 4 out of the seven winners. None of his winners priced bigger than 4/1.

     

     

    In 2011 1st, 2nd and 4th all ran well in 3 different 2010 Festival handicap hurdles. In 2012 first three home all repeated the good runs in 2011 hurdles. Benefficient had been unpl behind Simonsig in Neptune. Trainer stated immediately after this win that 'he just didn't act on the sharper 'old' course'. Placed horses 2013 had no festival hurdle form although Dynaste had been a seven length second to Big Bucks in a Cleeve Hurdle. 2014 only previous Festival form was Double Ross (3rd in this) filled similar position in 2013 Martin Pipe Hurdle. 2015 - Vautour had strolled home by 6l in the 2014 Supreme. 2016 didn't work. Black Hercules well beaten in Albert Bartlett. L'Ami Serge, well punted, only 4th in Supreme. 2017 Yorkhill completed a Festival double after his win in the Neptune in 2016.

     

    7 year olds lead 6 yr olds 5-2. No other age.

     

    8 of the 12 G1 Chase winners have been placed.

     

    14 beaten favs last time have run in this in the past 6 years. One winner Black Hercules 4/1. Yorkhill became the first top rated horse to win this.

     

    6 of the seven winners were no bigger than 7/1. 6 were novice hurdlers last season. 5 of the last six won last time out (Black Hercules F). 4 of the 7 had finished in the first three in a Grade 1 chase. Yorkhill had yet to run in a G1 Chase but had won three G hurdles. Sir Des Champs had won a G2, and I think Black Hercules would have won a Navan G2 if he hadn't crumpled at the last.

     

    Yorkhill only one with less that 3 runs over fences. He had two unbeaten runs. All seven winners ran within 54 days, Yorkhill 53, Black Hercules was 32.

     

    Of the 82 total runners, 14 hadn't completed all their starts. One winner, Black Hercules.

     

    No winners came from the Scilly Isles Sandown though Top Notch was a clos second in this last year. Terrefort from Cyrname. None came from the PJ Moriarty/Flogas 2m 5f chase at Leopardstown though Outlander may have been a little unlucky. He fell four out here when travelling well enough behind Black Hercules in 2016. Monalee in a great race from Al Boum Photo and Invitation Only.

     

     

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Wealth Warning.  Any decisions made (or not) or the basis of any information in this site are the sole responsibility of the reader.  There is no obligation on me to follow my own advice (Gary).  I take no responsibility for (but am keen to hear of) any factual errors.  Previous years ‘stats on stats’ would suggest we may identify a decent priced winner from manageable groups every three or four races.  I tend to improve as a tipster as the week goes on, possibly too worried on the Tuesday.  It is believed that Savello (2014 Grand Annual) took from Golden Chieftain (2013 3m hcap chase) the record for breaking the most stats in a race.  Stands now at 8.  Cole Harden equalised with 8 in the 2015 World Hurdle.  Remember, after you have cursed/laughed at me and given up totally on trends, they will come back to bite.  Always happens.  Usually on Gold Cup Day

Beware GO SEA - Groundless Optimism Syndrome Encouraged by Alcohol.  A Cotswold condition very common at this time of year.