• Marsh Novices' Chase 2m abt 4f

    (Registered as the Golden Miller Novices Chase)


    All winners aged 6 or 7 years

    None of the winners previous run was in the Scilly Isles or Flogas Chases

    Seven of the eight had run within 54 days of this race

    All eight had run at the previous Festival but only three were winning there for the second time

    Irish Trained have won seven of the eight

    The last 7 winners all won their last completed chase

    Seven of the eight returned no bigger than 7/1

    Only one winner had less than three previous chase runs. He was unbeaten over fences.


    Race Distance - 2 miles 4 furlongs. In 2014 became a Grade 1 (now making 14 in all). Had been a new race in 2011. As a Grade 1 and 2 novice chase all carry 11st 4 lbs. Mares receive 7lbs. My personal view is that the 2011 version was just OK but as the race ages, the quality is definitely improving. With Vautour and Yorkhill it seemed to rise to a new level. Not sure about 2016.


    Aged 6 or 7 years. Irish trained (sorry Jonjo) lead 7-1. Willie Mullins has won four of the eight. Quality course form becoming important or at least a Festival novice hurdle run last year. Top rated has only won it once. Last four rated at least 151 after mares allowances. Take on beaten favourites last time, those that have fallen in a chase and those with less than 3 chase runs unless Mullins trained, of course. Had been placed in G1 chase or won at least a G3 last time. Won last time. Novice hurdler last season. Check G1 hurdle winners.

  • Evidence

    2011 - AP got off the mark for the week on Noble Prince (rating 146, 4/1 2nd fav). He was an Irish Trained 7 yr old who hadn't been outside the first two on his three previous starts that season. His last two runs finished second in two Leopardstown Grade 1s over 2 miles. Wishful Thinking 2nd and fav top rated on 155. One mare unplaced, Blazing Tempo. One blinkered runner unplaced, Mr Thriller. Winner had previously been 5th in a County Hurdle.


    2012 - Sir Des Champs a 6 yr old off 148 beat Champion Court 150 and For Non Stop 151. Winner unbeaten over 3 that season and 3/1 2nd fav. Previous two wins were small field Irish G2s over 2m 4f. Zaynar only blinkered runner and unplaced. Winner had won 2011 Martin Pipe Hurdle and was then 2nd in 2013 Gold Cup.


    2013 - Benefficient 147 came back up the run in to beat Dynaste 161 by 4l. Had won a two finisher Irish Arkle as his prep. 20s was big. Three seven yr olds filled the places. Marito may have got close but fell two out. No runners blinkered. Bryan Cooper's career took off.

    2014 - Jonjo said it was his week's best chance and Taquin De Seuil 7/1 ridden by a very sore AP got up to beat Uxizandre. Taquin De Seuil won both here and at the Paddy Power Meeting 2013. Was a Class 2 Chase Course winner and over the trip. Rated 147. Won last time. Not out of first three that season. A seven yr old beat a six year old. Latter wore cheekpieces.

    2015 - Ruby made all on Vautour, rating at the time of 154. Impressive. Backed from 5/2 to 6/4 during the day. A long way behind were Apache Stronghold and Valseur Lido beaten 15l. Ages were 6, 7 and 6 respectively. Vautour's third chase. Form figures 121. Came here from winning G2 over 19f at Leoperdstown in January.


    2016 - There was a mess at the start when Zabana unseated Davy Russell and Outlander was hampered. A 7yr old Black Hercules jogged it. Off 152 backed down to 4/1co fav of three. (after all the scribes saying he should be in the 4 miler), Bristol De Mai (top rated) caught L'Ami Serge for second on the run in. A surprise, that.


    2017 - Willie had had no winners in first two Festival days with Douvan beat at 1/4. People were saying Willie had lost the power of his legs. A Thursday four timer with three G1s kicked off here by Yorkhill 6/4 fav settled that.


    2018 - Gordon's first JLT with Shattered Love at 4/1 outstaying the 3/1 fav Terrefort.


    All eight winners ran at the previous years Festival. Willie Mullins has trained four out of the eight winners. None of his winners priced bigger than 4/1.


    In 2011 1st, 2nd and 4th all ran well in 3 different 2010 Festival handicap hurdles. In 2012 first three home all repeated the good runs in 2011 hurdles. Benefficient had been unpl behind Simonsig in Neptune. Trainer stated immediately after this win that 'he just didn't act on the sharper 'old' course'. Placed horses 2013 had no festival hurdle form although Dynaste had been a seven length second to Big Bucks in a Cleeve Hurdle. 2014 only previous Festival form was Double Ross (3rd in this) filled similar position in 2013 Martin Pipe Hurdle. 2015 - Vautour had strolled home by 6l in the 2014 Supreme. 2016 didn't work. Black Hercules well beaten in Albert Bartlett wins. L'Ami Serge, well punted only 4th in Supreme, placed 3d in this. 2017 Yorkhill completed a Festival double after his win in the Neptune in 2016. Last year Shattered Love had been the Pricewise tip in the 2017 Ballymore, ran poorly there.


    12 G1 winning hurdlers have run, four have won.


    7 year olds lead 6 year olds 6-2. No other age group involved.


    9 of the 13 G1 Chase winners to run have been placed. Terrefort only qualifier last year, second.


    16 beaten favs last time have run in this in the past 7 years. One winner Black Hercules 4/1. Yorkhill is the only top rated horse to win this.

    Last four winners rated at least 151 after Shattered Love's 7lb allowance taken into account


    Seven of the eight winners were no bigger than 7/1. Seven were novice hurdlers last season. Six of the last seven won last time out (Black Hercules F). 5 of the 8 had finished in the first three in a Grade 1 chase. Shattered Love won the G1 3 mile novice chase at Leopardstown Christmas. Yorkhill had yet to run in a G1 Chase but had won three G1 hurdles. Sir Des Champs had won a G2, and I think Black Hercules would have won a Navan G2 if he hadn't crumpled at the last.


    Yorkhill only one with less that 3 runs over fences. He had two unbeaten runs. Shattered Love hadn't been seen since Xmas, the other seven winners ran within 54 days, Yorkhill 53, Black Hercules was 32.


    Of the 82 total runners, 16 hadn't completed all their chase starts. One winner, Black Hercules.


    No winners came from the Scilly Isles Sandown though Terrefortand and Top Notch were both second in this last two years. Defi Du Seuil bt Lost In Translation. None came from the PJ Moriarty/Flogas 2m 5f chase at Leopardstown though Outlander may have been a little unlucky. He fell four out here when travelling well enough behind Black Hercules in 2016. Last year Monalee and Al Boum Photo went to the RSA, Invitation Only third at Leopardstown PU here. La Bague Au Roi





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Wealth Warning.  Any decisions made (or not) or the basis of any information in this site are the sole responsibility of the reader.  There is no obligation on me to follow my own advice.  I take no responsibility for (but am keen to hear of) any factual errors.  (Bgault01@gmail.com, @gaultstats). Previous years ‘stats on stats’ would suggest we may identify a decent priced winner from manageable groups every three or four races.  I tend to improve as a tipster as the week goes on, possibly too worried on the Tuesday.  It is believed that Savello (2014 Grand Annual) took from Golden Chieftain (2013 3m hcap chase) the record for breaking the most stats in a race.  Stands now at 8.  Cole Harden equalised with 8 in the 2015 World Hurdle.  Remember, after you have cursed/laughed at me and given up totally on trends, they will come back to bite.  Always happens.  Usually on Gold Cup Day. Oh yes, and if you're called Rory Delargy, you can't win the quiz too often.

Beware GO SEA - Groundless Optimism Syndrome Encouraged by Alcohol.  A Cotswold condition very common at this time of year.