• Randox Health County Handicap Hurdle

    HEADLINES

    Irish Trained have won six of the last nine, Willie Mullins with four.

    15 of the last 16 were either novices or second season hurdlers

    Only two course winners have won since 1991. Both were second season novices.

    12 of last 13 all rated between 128 and 139

    All winners since 1994 had already run in a h'cap

    12 of the last 13 achieved their best RPR of at least 129 on a left handed track,

    12 of the last thirteen achieved best RPR within their last three runs

    Clear favourite hasn't won since 2004

    Summary

    Race Distance - 2 miles and abt a furlong. Winner will be aged 5 or 6 yrs, a novice or else placed in Boylesports/Betfair Hurdle/previous County. No more than second season over hurdles or else W Mullins trained. If full handicap, will carry under 11st 1lb unless finished 1st or 2nd in a Class 1 Handicap Hurdle. Not more than 1lb out of the handicap. Will have had at least three previous runs this season unless W Mullins. Between 4 and 17 previous runs over hurdles. Will be rated between 128 and 139 unless W Mullins. No headgear unless P Nicholls/W Mullins. Either Irish/P Nicholls/D Skelton trained. Not a previous course winner unless called Bennys Bridge. Not a handicap debutante. If P Nicholls winner, has been beaten here in a hurdle. Can win this under a penalty. May already have ran in a top hurdle race this season. Any price. Don't back a conditional who has yet to win at least Class 2 level. Has a best RPR of at least 129 on a left handed track. Career best RPR achieved within last three runs. Favourite due.

  • Evidence

    AGE 8 yr olds and above. 5 winners since ‘91 and only 6 since 1959 (Last year Remiluc a fine second at 9yrs t 50/1, three others unplaced. In 2017 Arctic Fire at 8 Yrs proved what a class act he is (and a fine trainer he has) under a cool Paul Townend ride, five others unplaced. 2012 Alderwood won from 4 triers, '07 Pedrobob). Remiluc had been 5th in a Betfair Hurdle and thrived on soft ground. Had won the 2 mile h'ap hurdle that closes Trials Day. (That cool ride by Paddy Brennan on Benny's Bridge. Only went up to 126, might struggle to get in).

     

    Arctic Fire's last run had been 418 days previous, 15 lengths second to Faugheen in an Irish Champion Hurdle. 8 yr olds Pedrobob and '02 Rooster Booster last runs were to be placed in a Totesport/Betfair Hurdle. Alderwood was still a novice. Four ran in 2016, great performance by Fethard Player in 2nd. 2015 Two, best was 9th. In 2013 - Manyriverstocross 25s 3rd as a 8 yr old and had been previously placed in a Betfair. Arcalis placed in 2010 as a 10 year old and a previous Festival winner. Only aged horses in this year's Betfair are check

     

    5 yr olds have won 10 of the last 20 from under 30% of total runners. 7 from 27 last year, best was Whiskey Sour in 3rd. 2017 - 6 from 25, best was Ivanovich Gorbatov in 6th. Backed down to 5/1 fav at the off. 2016, 8 from 26 ran 1st and 4th. 12 from 25 in 2015, best 4th. First three home were 6 yr olds, 7 five yr olds from 28 in 2014 finished 1-2-4-5-6. 2013 5 ran, best Shadow Catcher in 4th. 2012 8 from 26, finished 2nd, 3rd, 4th. In 2011 Final Approach won as one of 6 five yr olds from 26 runners. '09 American Trilogy strolled home, 5 from 28. '08 Silver Jaro won, 4 qualifiers from 22 runners. Mohaayed was a six year old in 2018

     

    NOVICES - 7 winning novices since '93 including three from the last seven (Lac Fontana and Alderwood at 139. Ted Veale 134 and the rest of the novices in those years not rated above 135). Three ran last year again best Whiskey Sour in 3rd. 5 in 2017, best Air Horse One in 4th. 2016 3 best Wait for Me in fourth. 2015, 5 tried best Max Dynamite under Ruby in 4th rating 137. (that was when he was heard saying something(s) under his breath when Wicklow Brave jogged past under P Townend. Mind you he was probably even more cross two years later when he was on 11/1 shot Rennetti and Paul went past again, this time on Arctic Fire).

     

    That means that the last 16 winners were 6 novices and 9 second season hurdlers. Plus Arctic Fire who had placed in this before and in a Champion Hurdle. 20s from 25s (Sounds so easy now. You knew, Gary, you knew).

     

    WEIGHT - Only 4 since 1960 have carried over 11st 2 lb but having said that, 6 of last 21 carried over 11st to victory. Arctic Fire plus Blowing Wind, Spirit Leader and Rooster Booster. The latter three all started 10/1 or under. Blowing Wind came straight from Sandown's Imperial Cup. The other two were 1st and 2nd in a Tote Gold Trophy. Alderwood at 20s 11st 1 lb was in a compressed handicap where bottom weight had 10st 8lbs. Bottom weight last year 10st off 128, 2017 it was 10st 2lb, Bottom weight won it in 2016 off 10st 12lbs. 2015 bottom weight 11st. This stat becoming a little irrelevant at times. (Aren't they all?)

     

    Arctic Fire at 11st 12lb first winner to carry over 11st 8lbs since 1960. Diakali impressive in 4th 2014 with 11st 12lb. Only the second horse to be placed with over 11st 8 lbs since 1979. (Backed it up when beaten on the line by The New One in the Aintree Hurdle) Fethard Player 2nd in 2016 carrying 11st 6lb. Remiluc highest weighted placed horse in 2018 carrying 11st 2 lb.

     

    Mohayeed off 139. (Dan Skelton was all for pulling him out because of the ground). Flash The Steel now 127. Arctic Fire's winning rating was 158. Beat L'Ami Serge off 152. Previous 12 rated between 128 and 139. Superb Story, also from the Skeltons, 138. 18 from last 20 rated between 128 and 144. (Fire 158, Sporazene 151, thirteen winners in the 130s).

     

    All bar Mohayeed of the last 13 achieved their best RPR minimum of 129 on a left handed track. Of those twelve all bar Arctic Fire achieved that within their last three runs. His was when 11/2 lengths second to Faugheen in the Champion Hurdle. Mohayeed achieved his best RPR of 147 last time out when 6l third to Buveur D'Air in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton. (Chesterfield, 4th here, had been last of four at Kempton). Mohaayed had achieved a 145 RPR with his previous run at Doncaster.

     

    Difficult to win from more than 1lb out of the handicap. Lots have tried and failed to do so since Prince of Bermuda last achieved this feat in 1980. (No runners from out of the handicap in the last eleven years, ’07, 8 qualifiers, none placed).

     

    PRICE - Mohaayed 33s, Arctic Fire 20s, Superb Story 8s (and Pricewise), Wicklow Brave 25s, Lac Fontana was 11s. Ted Veale 10s, Final Approach was 12/1. Used to not cross the 16/1 barrier. However going back 2012 Alderwood, 20s, '08 Silver Jaro 33s, American Trilogy and Thousand Stars also both at 20s. Two favs and two joint favs in the last 19. Desert Quest 4/1jf 2006, Last clear favourite to win Sporazene 7/1 in 2004. Both were trained by P Nicholls. Becoming due.

     

    Since '94 only Ted Veale, Master Tern and Silver Jaro have won this having been beaten favourite last time out. Best paying race in the Festival this century for backing beaten favs last time. Two from 37 have won - profit £26 for £1 stake. Silver Jaro at 50s profited from the Pyscho ride by P Carberry? (That's mischief now, remember Solwit, Bellvano, Very Wood, Nicanor and others). Three ran last year, best Lagostovegas in 5th. Three beaten favs ran also in 2017. L'Ami Serge BF in 2nd had been caught up the run in by Agrapart in the New Years Day Relkeel hurdle. No BFs last time ran in the 2016 County Hurdle. You would nearly expect the same horses to race against each other all season in these types of races. Both Ted Veale and Silver Jaro Irish trained.

     

     

    Irish trained winners - Last year 11 of the 27 runners were trained between Willie Mullins, Gordon Elliott and Joseph O'Brien. Willie returned the best result with 3rd and 5th home. In 2017 Willie Mullins' Arctic Fire won , 6 ran. In 2016 from 9 runners, only Fethard Player finished in the first seven home. In 2015 13 from the 25 runners were Irish Trained. Filled the first 6 places. W Mullins 1st, 4th, 5th and 6th. However last year from 9, only Fethard Player finished in the first seven home. In 2014 only 2nd, 4th and 5th from 7 runners. 2013 Ted Veale from Tennis Cap (from 9 runners), 2012 Alderwood (8 runners), 2011 Final Approach (5 runners), 2010 Thousand Stars (6 runners), Silver Jaro '08 won from Psycho (7 runners), Pedrobob '07. Spirit Leader ’03 was first Irish trained winner since ’76. Also placed 2012 Sailors Warn and Plan A. Eight winners in the last twelve. Any wonder the numbers going across tend to be increasing. All Irish trained winners (inc Whiskey Sour 3rd and Sort It Out 2nd) except Arctic Fire and Wicklow Brave had recent Leopardstown Form. Not Fethard Player. Hidden from view since Down Royal in early November.

     

    Willie Mullins has had 26 runners in the past 9. Four winners. Thousand Stars 20s, Final Approach 10s, Wicklow Brave 25s, Arctic Fire 20s. Also seconds with Arctic Fire 7s, Tennis Cap 11s, a third with Whiskey Sour and 4ths with Diakali 5s Max Dynamite 14s. Useful trainer. Yet to have a Festival h'cap winner over more than 2m 5f.

     

    Tony Mullins (Willie's brother) trained both Alderwood 20s and Pedrobob. Pedrobob only a second season hurdler as an eight year old.

     

    Paul Nicholls used to be the man. 4 wins in the last 14. The only home trainer able to hold the Irish hordes at bay. ’04 Sporazene, ’06 Desert Quest, '09 American Trilogy and 2014 Lac Fontana. Also ’06 Pirate Flagship 4th ’07 Ouninpohja 2nd. '08 Imsingingtheblues, last of 22 coming around the corner, finished 7th. 2012 Edgardo Sol, 2nd at 25/1, also finished 6th in 2013. Divin Bere 33s pu in 2018

     

    And Ruby is the most successful jockey ever with 4 wins. His finish on Final Approach 2011 was a cracker. But hasn't won it since.

     

    BLINKERS, CHEEKPIECES etc Arctic Fire wore his usual hood. Apart from him only one blinkered winner in previous 19 (American Trilogy, his second run in blinkers). 3 tried last year, all unplaced, Apart from Arctic Fire 5 others tried in 2017, all unplaced. Eleven went to post in 2016, including three first timers, best Fethard Player in the hood he always wears. Nine tried in 2015, best finisher 5th. A massive 12 from 28 wore headgear in 2014 (No, I don't know if that's a record) best finishers Arctic Fire 2nd and Diakali 4th both in hoods. 7 failed to win in 2013.

     

    25 of last 32 in first 4 on previous outing (Not '14, '12, '10 or '09) Mohayeed 3rd of four. Not get too excited.

     

    All since 1993 had already run in a handicap. Mohaayed was 7th here in 2017 and then 3rd in a Scottish Champion Hurdle at Ayr. Arctic Fire previously placed in this. Superb Story put away by the Skeltons since finishing second in the Greatwood. 4 of last 14 ran 'well' in the Totesport/Betfair Trophy (plus Remiluc last year). Placed horses there were check. Lac Fontana and Remiluc won the Cl2 Handicap which finishes the card on Cheltenham Trials day. Bennys Bridge

     

    No winner of the Dovecote that year has won a Festival handicap hurdle in the last 30 yrs Southfield Stone

     

    Flaxen Flare, 5th here, had been 2nd in the Boylesports (now the Coral Hurdle). Ted Veale was 3rd in the Boylesports in 2013 before winning. Final Approach won Boylesports. Silver Jaro had been 3rd in it, two races before this. Thousand Stars unplaced in Boylesports in his year. In last years Boylesports Modem was 2nd but well down the field here. 2016 Henry Higgins Leopardstown winner unpl here. 2017 Coral Hurdle none of the first three home ran here. In 2018 three unplaced at Leopardstown also unplaced here. At the 2019 Dublin Festival Off You Go outstayed Jezki. Off You Go also won it last year but wasn't seen til October.

     

    COURSE WINNERS - Lac Fontana became only the second horse after Master Tern (both second season novices) to win this as previous course winners since at least 1991. Both had won the same course handicap hurdle in January. Of the eight course winners to run here last year Remiluc went close. Arctic Fire had finished second twice in two previous Festivals.

     

    12 from the last 17 winners had no course placed form. Only 7 from last 20 had actually run at a previous Festival. Arctic Fire by far the best course form of those.

    9 from the last 13 had no previous Festival Form.

    However 13 from last 17 had all been beaten here before in a hurdle (including last five) Ted Veale, Alderwood, Final Approach and Spirit Leader had not run here before).

     

    Maiden hurdle at Cheltenham in October usually run on good ground has had an interesting history. '10 King of the Night won easy in Oct 'still right there when fell 4 out' in Sir Des Champs's Festival win. '09 The Jigsaw Man won 4 races after. In '07 race was won easy by Snap Tie who went on to finish 3rd in the Supreme Novices. 2012 winner Court Minstrel didn't run at festival but won G2 at Ayr in April. 2014 Lac Fontana did the double. But hasn't worked in the last four years. Thomas Darby bt Elixir Du Nuts and Bang On Frankie.

     

    Skybet Supreme Novice Trial at Cheltenham has produced American Trilogy and Lac Fontana. Most likely runners from that might be Elixir Du Nuts beat Itchy Feet.

     

    Imperial Cup (weekend before). 5 winners of that event since 1990 ran in the County. Moody Man and Blowing Wind won under a big weight and Carlito Brigante finished second. Floyd also did the double in 1985. Last two Pipe trained Imperial winners Gaspara and Ashkazar took the easier route with the 4 yr old handicap. '09 Dave's Dream 7/2 fav here and unplaced. '11 Alarazi unplaced favourite here. No luck in the next three. 2015 Ebony Express won at Sandown and then finished 19th behind Wicklow Brave who had refused to go a yard at Sandown at 9/1. 2016 Flying Angel 2nd in Imperial Cup then 2nd in Martin Pipe Conditionals. In 2018 Mr Antoloni bt Call Me Lord but none of the Sandown principals came to this.

     

    20 from last 24 had ran at least 4 times that season (not Arctic Fire, not at all, Superb Story, twice, Lac Fontana, 3 runs, Final Approach just the two). Wicklow Brave at least had started four races. 28 of the last 31 winners all had at least 3 previous runs that season (Fire, Superb and Final Approach, the exeptions). 15 of the last 23 had been out at least 5 times. I usually use the phrase 'battle hardened' here but I'm not sure that is now correct.
     

    Last 22 between 4 and 17 total runs over hurdles. (Mohayeed 9, Arctic Fire 17, Ted Veale and American T only 4). 11 from the last 13 no more than 12 runs over hurdles.

     

    13 from last 21 ran in the last 35 days (not those that came direct from the Boylesports or Trials day, Mohayeed Boxing Day). 3 of the last 19 won carrying a penalty (from small numbers, no qualifiers in the last thre years).

     

    WINNING CONDITIONAL JOCKEYS - Bridget Andrews (3) joins Katie Walsh (3) 2010, Jimmy Moffatt (3) on a famous win with Home Counties 1995, David Bridgewater (7) Winnie The Witch 1991. (The latter two winning for their fathers). Five others last year, Harry Reed (5) in second, and Daniel Sansom (5) in fourth. Seven in 2017, best finisher JJ Slevin (3) in 6th. 5 in 2016 best David Mullins (3) on Fethard Player. 4 in 2015 best Shane Shortall (5), 3rd on QuickJack. 4 in 2014, all unplaced. 8 tried in 2013 best H Derham 6th on Edgardo Sol, 3 tried in 2012, H Derham best again in 2nd.

     

    David Mullins had already won a G1 Morgiana on Nichols Canyon, Katie had already won the 4 miler that week on Poker de Sivola, Harry Derham had won a G3 Greatwood Hurdle on Brampour. This was Bridget's first major success, though had won Cl2 handicap hurdle at Haydock.

     

    Don't be betting with a bookie who doesn't pay 5th place. A lot will go six places.

     

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Wealth Warning.  Any decisions made (or not) or the basis of any information in this site are the sole responsibility of the reader.  There is no obligation on me to follow my own advice.  I take no responsibility for (but am keen to hear of) any factual errors.  (Bgault01@gmail.com, @gaultstats). Previous years ‘stats on stats’ would suggest we may identify a decent priced winner from manageable groups every three or four races.  I tend to improve as a tipster as the week goes on, possibly too worried on the Tuesday.  It is believed that Savello (2014 Grand Annual) took from Golden Chieftain (2013 3m hcap chase) the record for breaking the most stats in a race.  Stands now at 8.  Cole Harden equalised with 8 in the 2015 World Hurdle.  Remember, after you have cursed/laughed at me and given up totally on trends, they will come back to bite.  Always happens.  Usually on Gold Cup Day. Oh yes, and if you're called Rory Delargy, you can't win the quiz too often.

Beware GO SEA - Groundless Optimism Syndrome Encouraged by Alcohol.  A Cotswold condition very common at this time of year.