• Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle

    HEADLINES

    12 of the 15 had been 1st or 2nd last time out in Graded Class

    Seven winners of the G2 late January 2m 5f course trial have run. 3 won, two placed.

    12 of the last 14 were six or seven years of age.

    Only one French Bred winner in last 14

    Penhill is W Mullins' only winner from 35 runners.

    Seven of the 15 were course winners. Six others had never been here before.

    Eight from the last ten were rated 140+

    Minella Indo only winner having had less than 3 runs over hurdles.

    Six from the last seven winners started hurdling in 2 mile races.

    No winner with an SP under 11/1 since 2014.

    Summary

    Race Distance - about 3 miles. Going 15 years. Winner to be 6 or 7 years old. Has won hurdle race over at least 2m 4f. Harry Senior solid chance on the record of January course form. May not have already run over 3 miles. At least 3 runs over hurdles or Graded place last time out. 1st or 2nd last time out in Graded Class or ran in Challow Hurdle. Hasn't come from the Flat unless W Mullins. Irish trained have recently punched above their numbers. Course winner if given the chance. Irish or Eng Bred. Due something under 10/1. Not beaten favourite last time unless placed in a Graded shorter trip. Rated 140+, if rated.

  • Evidence

     

    The 2m 4f plus Graded races at Cheltenham earlier in the season have produced winners in this.

    2010 - Berties Dream had been 3rd to Tell Massini in November G2, Restless Harry, fell last here, had previously won G2 in January.
    2011 - Mossley in 2nd hadwon the 3 mile December Novice. In the G2 in January 2011, Bobs Worth beat Rock On Ruby who was subsequently touched off in the line.
    2012 - Nothing placed figured in Brindisi Breeze's year had raced here before.
    2013 - In January, At Fishers Cross beat The New One. Fishers then won this.

    2014 - Nothing placed had been here before. 1st and 3rd Irish trained

    2015 - First four home Irish trained. All never been here before.

    2016 - Unowhatimeanharry won Albert Bartlett Trial in December. Shantou Village won 2m 5f Neptune Trial, started 7/2 fav here PU. Champers on Ice, 3rd here, had finished 2nd to Shantou.

    2017 - 1-2 Irish Trained. Wholestone in 3rd had won both of the two previous course novices.

    2018 - Kilbricken Storm won the 3m G2 December Novice, OK Corral in 2nd, had never been here before. Santini in 3rd, had beaten Black Op in the January 2m 5f novice.

    2019 - Irish 1-2-3 had never raced in the UK before this. Lisnagar Oscar in 5th had been 2nd to Rockpoint Dec 3m Rockpoint finished last. Dinons won 3m in October, PU here

     

    CHELTENHAM TRIALS - This season October 3m Novice Ramses De Teillee from The Butcher Said on heavy getting 8lb.

     

    Ballymore Novice November Cheltenham 2m 5f on soft ground, Thyme Hill beats Champagne Well and Happygolucky.

     

    Albert Bartlett trial in December won by Redford Road outstaying Champagne Well with Mossy Fen in 4th on soft. 8 winners of that have turned up in March, 4 winners. Unowhatimeanharry 2016 first since Nenuphar Collonges in 2008. Wholestone 3rd here in 2017.

     

    January 1st Ballymore Listed over 2m 5f went to Protektorat just from Imperial Alkazar. Winner 3rd since on course in January to Harry Senior.

     

    January Trials Day 2m5f G2 went to Harry Senior when King Roland seemed to pull too hard, Prokektorat in 3rd. Soft ground. Only 6 winners of this race have lined up for the Albert Bartlett, 3 won, Santini and Wholestone both 3rd, Restless Harry fell at the last when still pitching against Berties Dream. Birchdale last year PU in Albert Barlett. Trainer said after Harry Senior's win, 'he looks like a stayer.'

     

    AGE - Apart from Moulin Riche and Very Wood (5 yrs) , Unowhatimeanharry (8 yrs) the remaining 12 were all six or seven years of age.

     

    Penhill became the only winner since Moulin Riche to have run on the flat. (That man Willie Mullins again. No respect for stats). Apart from him Minella Indo, 'Harry and Kilbricken Storm all came from Irish point to points. 5 from the last 8 won a p2p.

     

    African Gold (2nd 2013) was the first River Don winner at Doncaster late January to get involved in the finish of this. Barters Hill 4th here in 2016. 2017 N Henderson's Constantine Bay bt No Hassle Hoff in a hard race at Doncaster. Again finished a very credible fourth here. 2018 Enniscoffey Oscar well behind here. His Doncaster 6 mins 07 was 12 seconds slower than each of the previous two years. Nadaitak won at Donc good ground 5 mins 54, finished 12th here last year. Ramses De Tellee really outstayed Champagne Well in GtoS Donc 6 mins 3 secs.

     

    IRISH TRAINED - 84 of the total 275 runners have been Irish Trained (29%). 9 from 20 last year, 7 from 20 last year, 6 from 15 in 2017, 8 out of 20 in 2016. Have produced six of the last eleven winners with Minella Indo 50s, Penhill 16s Martello Tower 16s, Very Wood 33s, Berties Dream '10 Weapon's Amnesty '09, seven seconds (Commander Of Fleet 4/1 fav, Monalee 8s Fagan 33s) and five thirds. 1-2-3 last year from three different Irish trainers. 2012 Boston Bob 6/5 fav couldn't get to Brindisi Breeze. Irish trained would have produced another second if Black Harry hadn't fallen tired at the last against Wichita Lineman. Latest Exbibition, Cobblers Way, Fury Road, Longhouse Poet, Monkfish, The Big Getaway.

     

    The G3 Mercedes-Benz run at Clonmel in 2019 featured Alloha beating Minella Indo. Places reversed here. The race in 2020 moved to Punchestown 18th February. A race won in previous years by Chris's Dream, Monalee, Roi Des Francs and, Don Poli. Run Wild Fred tough and game from Lord Royal.

     

    W Mullins - Penhill winner in 2017 from 35 runners including three short priced favourites. Ran three last year best Alloha 3rd (IMHO Ruby seemed to get caught out of his ground by Rachel as they came round the last bend) Three entries 2018 best Ballyward in 4th. Ran 6 of the eight Irish in 2016, best Balko Des Flos in 5th.

     

    Nathaniel Lacey Solicitors G1 at the Dublin Racing Festival was a G2 2m 4f. Has now been upgraded to a 2m 6f G1 novice has produced Martello Tower, Liskennett (2nd), Weapons Amnesty and Boston Bob. 2016 Nothing came. Tower Bridge won in Dublin, finished 5th here. Latest Exhibition, Cobbles Bay, Longhouse Poet, Fury Road. Berties Dream finished 4th in the Boyne Hurdle before winning this. He was a trier. Strongly tipped up by his jockey Andrew Lynch 33s Belfast Preview Night. Penhil strolled home in G2 Limerick late December bog. A good ground stayer on the Flat. (Delta Work came from this race 2018) Derrinross unplaced last year. Fury Road. Unowhatimeanharry threw in winning an Exeter Pertemps Qualifier after a Cheltenham G2 before coming here.

     

    Brindisi Breeze hadn't run at Cheltenham before but came form the G2 Albert Bartlett race at Haydock in mid February. The Worlds End won at Haydock then fell here 'upsides' two out. Chef Des Obeaux PU 2018, Lisnagar Oscar 5th last year, good winner of Haydock Albert Bartlett Trial. Won in 2012 by Brindisi Breeze. Ramses de Teillee stayed on from Kalooki.

     

    13 from the 15 had won a hurdle race over 2m 4f or further (Kilbricken 3 miles 'Harry and Martello Tower had each won twice over 3 miles, Not Minella Indo, a maiden over hurdles had won a p2p at Dromahane, (left handed, stiff climb to finish), not Very Wood. He had won a 4 yr old 3m Oldcastle P2P (left handed, stiff climb to finish) Had finished 3l 3rd in 2m 4f Naas G2. Moulin Riche 2nd in his Haydock race had won over 2m 4f in France.

     

    8 of the 15 had 3 or 4 runs over hurdles. indo only two, second to Alloha in a 3m Clonmel G3. 'Harry and Berties had 14, Moulin 8 both second season novices, Martello Tower and At Fishers Cross, both 6 hurdle runs, Penhill had seven. The latter had been on the go since May, possibly originally seen as a summer hurdler.

     

    See Simon Rowlands Sectional Times Analysis on ATR

     

    https://cheltenham.attheraces.com/features/sectional-spotlight/novice-hurdlers

     

    Minella Indo buried the stat that all 36 horses that had contested less than three hurdle races had been beaten. Birchdale, Dickie Diver had also only two runs. Alloha had one hurdle run in France before coming to Ireland. Two qualifiers in 2018, Santini (fav) and Ballyward.

     

    Moulin Riche had won at Listed level in France, 10 others had won a Graded hurdle, Indo, Berties Dream and Very Wood just placed .

     

    12 of the 15 were 1st or 2nd last time out in Graded class (Kilbricken 3rd in a Challow Newbury bog, Very Wood 3rd, Berties had been 4th).

     

    Eight of the last ten winners were officially rated 140+. Indo had only ran twice so had no official rating.

     

    7 were course winners, Berties placed. indo, Penhill, Martello Tower, Very Wood, Brindisi and Weapon's Amnesty had never been here before. Moulin Riche beaten both in Triumph and in a Chelt 2m 4f novice earlier that season.
     

    Black Jack Ketchum only unbeaten horse to win this. 'Harry, Bobs Worth and At Fishers Cross were unbeaten that season.

     

    6 of the 15 had raced around Cheltenham as least twice. 9 hadn't.

     

    All bar Minella Indo of the last 7 winners and 9 from the15 started their hurdling career over no more than 2 miles. Indo already seen as a stayer, started over 2m 4f

     

    36 from the 45 win and placed so far were all 1st or 2nd last time out. Won't be much of a discriminator.

     

    Only 28 from 45 win and placed had already raced over 3 miles hurdle races. 1st and 3rd last year had run in that Clonmel 3m G3. 2018 Just the winner,, Kilbricken Storm 1-2-3 in 2017 and 1-2 in 2016 had done so. Placed horses in 2015 had run over 2m 6f. In 2014 none of the first three if you recall the number of front runners in that race picked off by Very Wood. Both At Fishers and Brindisi had raced over 3 miles, previous two winners hadn't.
     

    BREEDING - Both Penhill and 'Harry ENG bred. Nenuphar and Moulin were FRE, the rest Irish bred.

     

    SHORT PRICED FAVOURITES - Santini 11/4, Death Duty 13/8, Black Hercules, Briar Hill, Boston Bob and Brewster in '05 favourites under 3/1 and beaten. last year Commander Of Fleet was the 4/1 jolly and ran well. 2016 PU fav was Shantou Village at 7/2, 4 other favourites under 3/1 have won (including Bobs Worth and Black Jack Ketchum). But also two 33/1 shots and a 14/1 winner in 2016. 'Harry returned 11s. In 2014 Kings Palace was also backed from 4s in to 5/2 second fav.
     

    29 last time beaten favourites have ran. One winner, Weapons Amnesty at 9/1 (had ran over 2m 4f G2)

     

    BLINKERS - Very Wood 2014 won in first time cheek pieces with a masterful Paul Carberry ride. Also Nenuphar Collonges 2007 from a total of 19 qualifiers in total. Nenuphar always wore blinkers and won this off a rating 134. It is now a G1. Four ran last year, best finisher First Approach in 11th. Paisley Park unplaced 2018 in a first time visor which he didn't take to. In 2017 threeunpld headgear wearers. Champers On Ice 3rd in cheekpieces only qualifier 2016. Two failed in 2014 including Tea For Two in first time hood.

     

    Penhill first winner of this to return and win any Festival hurdle. Paisley Park first horse to get beat in this and return to win a Festival race. As a novice chaser Wichita Lineman was carried home by AP to win the JLT 3 mile H'cap Chase. We will never see the like of AP again.

     

    Horses beaten in the Albert Bartlett to return and win at the Festival? To follow Paisley Park Santini, Real Steel, Allaho? My thanks to Rory Delargy for pointing out to me this list of subsequent Festival winners to have suffered the same fate. Chief Dan George, Bostons Angel, Oscar Park, Cape Tribulation, Teaforthree, The Druids Nephew, O'Faolins Boy, Black Hercules, Blaklion, Native River, Balko Des Flos. Also throw in other NH big guns such as Carruthers and Elegant Escape, Chris's Dream.

     

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Wealth Warning.  Any decisions made (or not) or the basis of any information in this site are the sole responsibility of the reader.  There is no obligation on me to follow my own advice.  I take no responsibility for (but am keen to hear of) any factual errors.  (Bgault01@gmail.com, @gaultstats). Previous years ‘stats on stats’ would suggest we may identify a decent priced winner from manageable groups every three or four races.  It is believed that Savello (2014 Grand Annual) took from Golden Chieftain (2013 3m hcap chase) the record for breaking the most stats in a race.  Stands now at 8.  Cole Harden equalised with 8 in the 2015 World Hurdle.  Remember, after you have cursed/laughed at me and given up totally on trends, they will come back to bite.  Always happens.  Usually on Gold Cup Day. 

Beware GO SEA - Groundless Optimism Syndrome Encouraged by Alcohol.  A Cotswold condition very common at this time of year.