• Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle


    11 of the 14 had been 1st or 2nd last time out in Graded Class

    6 winners of the G2 January 2m 5f course trial have lined up. 3 won, two placed

    11 of the last 13 six or seven years of age

    Only one French Bred winner in last 13

    Willie Mullins is no respecter of Cheltenham Stats

    Seven of the 14 were course winners. Five others had never been here before.

    Eight from the last nine were rated 140+

    No horse has won having less than 3 runs over hurdles.

    Last 6 winners started hurdling in 2 mile races


    Race Distance - about 3 miles. Going 14 years. Winner to be 6 or 7 years old. Has won hurdle race over at least 2m 4f. Birchdale solid chance on the record of January course form. May not have already run over 3 miles. At least 3 runs over hurdles. 1st or 2nd last time out in Graded Class or ran in Challow Hurdle. Hasn't come from the Flat unless W Mullins. Irish trained have recently punched above their numbers. Course winner if given the chance. Irish or Eng Bred. Any price. Not beaten favourite last time unless placed in Graded shorter trip. Rated 140+

  • Evidence


    The 2m 4f plus Graded races at Cheltenham earlier in the season produce winners here.

    2010 - Berties Dream had been 3rd to Tell Massini in November G2, Restless Harry, fell last here, had previously won G2 in January.
    2011 - Mossley in 2nd hadwon the 3 mile December Novice. In the G2 in January 2011, Bobs Worth beat Rock On Ruby who was subsequently touched off in the line.
    2012 - Nothing placed figured in Brindisi Breeze's year had raced here before.
    2013 - In January, At Fishers Cross beat The New One. Fishers then won this.

    2014 - Nothing placed had been here before. 1st and 3rd Irish trained

    2015 - First four home Irish trained. All never been here before.

    2016 - Unowhatimeanharry won Albert Bartlett Trial in December. Shantou Village won 2m 5f Neptune Trial, started 7/2 fav here PU. Champers on Ice, 3rd here, had finished 2nd to Shantou.

    2017 - 1-2 Irish Trained. Wholestone in 3rd had won both of the two previous course novices.

    2018 - Kilbricken Storm won the 3 m G2 December Novice, OK Corral in 2nd, had never been here before. Santini in 3rd, had beaten Black Op in the January 2m 5f novice.


    CHELTENHAM TRIALS - This season October 3m Novice Dinons eased home from De Name Evades Me on good to soft giving him 8lb.


    Albert Bartlett trial in December won by Rockpoint outstaying Lisnagar Oscar on good to soft. 7 winners of that have turmed up in March, 4 winners. 'Harry first since Nenuphar Collonges in 2008. Wholestone 3rd. Trial.


    January 1st Balymore Listed over 2m 5f went to Jarveys Plate over AI Can't Explain. Winner well beaten since by Birchdale.


    January Trials Day 2m5f G2 went to Birchdale left in front when Brewin'Upastorm fell at the last when well in contention, the pair clear. Soft ground. Only 6 winners of this race have lined up for the Albert Bartlett, 3 won, Santini and Wholestone both 3rd, Restless Harry fell at the last when still pitching against Berties Dream.


    AGE - Apart from Moulin Riche and Very Wood (5 yrs) , Unowhatimeanharry (8 yrs) the remaining 11 were all six or seven years of age.


    Penhill became the only winner since Moulin Riche to have run on the flat. (That man Willie Mullins again. No respect for stats). Last 2 before 'Harry and Kilbricken Storm came from Irish point to points.


    African Gold (2nd 2013) was the first River Don winner at Doncaster late January to get involved in the finish of this. Barters Hill 4th here in 2016. Last year N Henderson's Constantine Bay bt No Hassle Hoff in a hard race at Doncaster. Again finished a very credible fourth here. Last year Enniscoffey Oscar well behind here. His Doncaster 6 mins 07 was 12 seconds slower than each of the previous two years. Check


    Lisnagar Oscar since good winner of Haydock Albert Bartlett. Won in 2012 by Brindisi Breeze.
    IRISH TRAINED - 75 of the total 255 runners have been Irish Trained (29%). 7 from 20 last year, 6 from 15 in 2017, 8 out of 20 in 2016. Have produced five of the last ten winners Penhill 16s Martello Tower 16s, Very Wood 33s, Berties Dream '10 Weapon's Amnesty '09, six seconds (Monalee 8s Fagan 33s) and four thirds. 2015 7 from 20 runners. 2012 Boston Bob 6/5 fav couldn't get to Brindisi Breeze. Irish trained would have produced another second if Black Harry hadn't fallen at the last against Wichita Lineman. Commander Of Fleet, Dinons, Relegate, Derrinross

    W Mullins - Penhill winner in 2017 from 32 runners including three short priced favourites. Ran three last year best Ballyward in 4th. Ran 6 of the eight Irish in 2016, best Balko Des Flos in 5th.


    Nathaniel Lacey Solicitors G1 at the Dublin Racing Festival was a G2 2m 4f. Has now been upgraded to a 2m 6f G1 novice has produced Martello Tower, Liskennett (2nd), Weapons Amnesty and Boston Bob. 2016 Nothing came. Tower Bridge won in Dublin, finished 5th here. Commander Of Fleet from Rhinestone, the pair six lengths clear. Berties Dream finished 4th in the Boyne Hurdle before winning this. He was a trier. Tipped up by Andrew Lynch 33s Belfast Preview Night. Penhil strolled home in G2 Limerick late December bog. A good ground stayer on the Flat. (Delta Work came from this race last year) Derrinross beat Defi Bleu. Unowhatimeanharry threw in winning an Exeter Pertemps Qualifier after a Cheltenham G2 before coming here.


    Brindisi Breeze hadn't run at Cheltenham before but came form the G2 Albert Bartlett race at Haydock in mid February. The Worlds End won at Haydock then fell here 'upsides' two out. Chef Des Obeaux PU last year. Check


    13 from the 14 had won a hurdle race over 2m 4f or further (Kilbricken 3miles 'Harry and Martello Tower had each won twice over 3 miles, Not Very Wood but had won a 4 yr old 3m Oldcastle P2P (left handed, stiff climb to finish) Had finished 3l 3rd in 2m 4f Naas G2. Moulin Riche 2nd in his Haydock race had won over 2m 4f in France.


    8 of the 14, 3 or 4 runs over hurdles ('Harry and Berties had 14, Moulin 8 both second season novices, Martello Tower and At Fishers Cross, both 6 hurdle runs ,Penhill had seven, on the go since May, possibly originally seen as a summer hurdler). All 36 horses that had contested less than three hurdle races have been beaten. Two qualifiers last year, Santini (fav) and Ballyward.


    Moulin Riche had won at Listed level in France, 10 others had won a Graded hurdle, Berties and Very Wood just placed .


    11 were 1st or 2nd last time out in Graded class (Kilbricken 3rd in a Challow Newbury bog, Very Wood 3rd, Berties had been 4th).


    Eight of the last nine winners were officially rated 140+


    7 were course winners, Berties placed. Penhill, Martello Tower, Very Wood, Brindisi and Weapon's Amnesty had never been here before. Moulin Riche beaten both in Triumph and in a Chelt 2m 4f novice earlier that season.

    Black Jack Ketchum only unbeaten horse to win this. 'Harry, Bobs Worth and At Fishers Cross were unbeaten that season.


    6 of the 14 had raced around Cheltenham as least twice. 6 hadn't


    The last 6 winners and 9 from the 14 started their hurdling career over no more than 2 miles.


    33 from the 42 win and placed so far were all 1st or 2nd last time out. Won't be much of a discriminator.


    Only 26 from 42 win and placed had already raced over 3 miles hurdle races. Just the winner last year, 1-2-3 in 2017 and 1-2 in 2016 had done so. Placed horses in 2015 had run over 2m 6f. In 2014 none of the first three if you recall the number of front runners in that race picked off by Very Wood. Both At Fishers and Brindisi had raced over 3 miles, previous two hadn't.

    BREEDING - Both Penhill and 'Harry ENG bred. Nenuphar and Moulin were FRE, the rest Irish bred.


    SHORT PRICED FAVOURITES - Santini 11/4, Death Duty 13/8, Black Hercules, Briar Hill, Boston Bob and Brewster in '05 favourites under 3/1 and beaten. 2016 PU fav was Shantou Village at 7/2, 4 other favourites under 3/1 have won (including Bobs Worth and Black Jack Ketchum). LOL. But also two 33/1 shots and a 14/1 winner in 2016. 'Harry returned 11s. In 2014 Kings Palace was also backed from 4s in to 5/2 second fav.

    28 last time beaten favourites have ran. One winner, Weapons Amnesty at 9/1 (had ran over 2m 4f G2)


    Sectional Spotlight - Simon Rowlands ATR




    BLINKERS - Very Wood won in first time cheek pieces with a masterful Paul Carberry ride. Also Nenuphar Collonges 2007 from 15 triers in total. Nenuphar always wore blinkers and won this off a rating 134. It is now a G1. Paisley Park unplaced last year in a first time visor which he didn't take to. In 2017 3 unpld headgear wearers. Champers On Ice 3rd in cheekpieces only qualifier 2016. Two failed in 2014 including Tea For Two in first time hood.


    Penhill first winner of this to return and win any Festival hurdle. As a novice chaser Wichita Lineman was carried home by AP to win the JLT 3 mile H'cap Chase. We will never see his like again.


    Horses beaten in the Albert Bartlett to return and win at the Festival? Paisley Park, OK Corral, Ballyward, Santini, Reel Steel. For those concerned with the fact that Paisley Park was well beaten in last year's Albert Bartlett, my thanks to Rory Delargy for pointing out to me this list of subsequent Festival winners to have suffered the same fate. Chief Dan George, Bostons Angel, Oscar Park, Cape Tribulation, Teaforthree, The Druids Nephew, O'Faolins Boy, Black Hercules, Blaklion, Native River, Balko Des Flos. Also throw in other NH big guns such as Carruthers and Elegant Escape. Not any Stayers winners I grant you, and not all in the immediate year after, but grounds for hope I would suggest.



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Wealth Warning.  Any decisions made (or not) or the basis of any information in this site are the sole responsibility of the reader.  There is no obligation on me to follow my own advice.  I take no responsibility for (but am keen to hear of) any factual errors.  (Bgault01@gmail.com, @gaultstats). Previous years ‘stats on stats’ would suggest we may identify a decent priced winner from manageable groups every three or four races.  I tend to improve as a tipster as the week goes on, possibly too worried on the Tuesday.  It is believed that Savello (2014 Grand Annual) took from Golden Chieftain (2013 3m hcap chase) the record for breaking the most stats in a race.  Stands now at 8.  Cole Harden equalised with 8 in the 2015 World Hurdle.  Remember, after you have cursed/laughed at me and given up totally on trends, they will come back to bite.  Always happens.  Usually on Gold Cup Day. Oh yes, and if you're called Rory Delargy, you can't win the quiz too often.

Beware GO SEA - Groundless Optimism Syndrome Encouraged by Alcohol.  A Cotswold condition very common at this time of year.