• Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle

    HEADLINES

     

    10 of the 12 had been 1st or 2nd last time out in Graded Class

    Only 4 winners of the G2 January 2m 5f course trial have lined up. 3 won

    10 of the last 11 six or seven years of age

    Willie Mullins has never won this, even with three short priced favourites

    6 were course winners. 4 others had never been here before.

     

    Summary

    Race Distance - about 3 miles. Going 12 years. Winner to be 6 or 7 years old. Has won hurdle race over at least 2m 4f. Wholestone big chance on the record of January course form. May not have already run over 3 miles. Al least 3 runs over hurdles. 1st or 2nd last time out in Graded Class. Hasn't come from the Flat. Irish trained have recently punched above their numbers. Course winner or Graded course form if given the chance. Irish Bred. Any price. Not beaten favourite last time unless placed in Graded shorter trip. W Mullins having a bit of bother here (14 of his stable left in at 6 day stage).

  • Evidence

    The 2m 4f plus Graded races at Cheltenham earlier in the season produce winners here.

    2010 - Berties Dream had been 3rd to Tell Massini in November G2, Restless Harry, fell last here, had previously won G2 in January.
    2011 - Mossley 2nd won the 3 mile December Novice. In the G2 in January 2011, Bobs Worth beat Rock On Ruby who was subsequently touched off in the line.
    2012 - Nothing placed figured in Brindisi Breeze's year had raced here before.
    2013 - In January, At Fishers Cross beat The New One. Fishers then won this.

    2014 - Nothing placed had been here before. 1st and 3rd Irish trained

    2015 - First four home Irish trained. All never been here before.

    2016 - Unowhatimeanharry won Albert Bartlett Trial in December. Shantou Village won Nov Neptune Trial, started 7/2 fav here PU. Champers on Ice, 3rd here, had finished 2nd to Shantou.

     

    This year in the November Neptune Trial Peregrine Run bt Wholestone and West Approach on good ground.

     

    Albert Bartlett trial in December won by Wholestone getting up from Ami Desbois. 7 winners of that have turmed up in March, 3 winners. 'Harry first since Nenuphar Collonges in 2008.

     

    January 2m5f G2 went to Wholestone. Only 4 winners of this race have lined up for the Albert Bartlett, 3 won and Restless Harry fell at the last when still pitching against Berties Dream.

     

    After Moulin Riche the next 10 all six or seven years of age. Then Unowhatimeanharry was an eight year old

     

    After Moulin Riche last 10 had not run on the Flat. Last 2 before 'Harry came from Irish point to points.

     

    African Gold (2nd 2013) first River Don winner at Doncaster late January to get involved in the finish of this. Barters Hill 4th here in 2016. Constantine Bay from No Hassle Hoff in a hard race. It tends to be. Their Doncaster 5mins 55 was a very similar time to Barters Hill in 2016.
     
    IRISH TRAINED - 62 of the total 220 runners were Irish Trained (28%). 8 out of 20 last year. Have produced four of the last eight winners Martello Tower 16s, Very Wood 33s, Berties Dream '10 Weapon's Amnesty '09, five seconds (Fagan 33s) and four thirds. 2015 7 from 20 runners. 2012 Boston Bob 6/5 fav couldn't get to Brindisi Breeze. Irish trained would have produced another second if Black Harry hadn't fallen at the last in '07.
     

    W Mullins - 0 from 24 here including three short priced favourites. Ran 6 of the eight last year, best Balko Des Flos in 5th.

     

     

    G2 2m 4f Novice Hurdle (Leopardstown, late January) has produced Liskennett (2nd), Weapons Amnesty and Boston Bob, and Windsor Park. Nothing came last year. Lets Dance 6l from Kemboy Berties Dream finished 4th in the Boyne Hurdle before winning this. He was a trier. Tipped up by Andrew Lynch 33s Belfast Preview Night.

     

    Brindisi Breeze hadn't run at Cheltenham before but came form the G2 Albert Bartlett race at Haydock in mid February. The Worlds End nine lengths from No Hassle Hoff.

     

    11 from the 12 had won a hurdle race over 2m 4f or further ('Harry and Martello Tower had each won twice over 3 miles, Brindisi Breeze came form the heavy ground 3m novice at Haydock won this year by check. Not Very Wood but had won a 4 yr old 3m Oldcastle P2P (left handed, stiff climb to finish) Had finished 3l 3rd in 2m 4f Naas G2. Moulin Riche 2nd in his Haydock race had won over 2m 4f in France.

     

    7 of the 12, 3 or 4 runs over hurdles ('Harry and Berties had 14, Moulin 8 both second season novices, Martello Tower and At Fishers Cross, both 6 hurdle runs).

     

    Moulin Riche had won at Listed level in France, 9 others had won a Graded hurdle, Berties and Very Wood just placed .

     

    10 were 1st or 2nd last time out in Graded class (Very Wood 3rd, Berties had been 4th).

     

    6 were course winners, Berties placed. Martello Tower, Very Wood, Brindisi and Weapon's Amnesty had never been here before. Moulin Riche beaten both in Triumph and in a Chelt 2m 4f novice earlier that season.
     

    Black Jack Ketchum only unbeaten horse to win this. 'Harry, Bobs Worth and At Fishers Cross were unbeaten that season.

     

    6 of the 12 had raced around Cheltenham as least twice. 6 hadn't

     

    28 from the 36 win and placed so far were all 1st or 2nd last time out. Only covered 15 of the 20 runners last year. Won't be much of a discriminator.

     

    Only 22 from 36 win and placed had already raced over 3 miles hurdle races. 1-2 last year had done so. Placed horses in 2015 had run over 2m 6f. In 2014 none of the first three if you recall the number of front runners in that race picked offby Very Wood. Both At Fishers and Brindisi had raced over 3 miles, previous two hadn't.
     

    BREEDING - 'Harry by Sir Harry Lewis and ENG bred. Nenuphar and Moulin were FRE, the rest Irish bred.

     

    SHORT PRICED FAVOURITES - Black Hercules, Briar Hill, Boston Bob and Brewster in '05 favourites under 3/1 and beaten. 2016 Surely not the devil 's letter B with Barters Hill? No. he started second fav at 4/1. (PU fav was Shantou Village at 7/2) 4 other favourites under 3/1 have won (including Bobs Worth and Black Jack Ketchum). LOL But also two 33/1 shots and a 14/1 winner in 2016. 'Harry returned 11s. In 2014 Kings Palace was also backed from 4s in to 5/2 second fav. A long Gold Cup day of wonderful results for bookmakers.
     

    25 last time beaten favourites have ran. One winner, Weapons Amnesty at 9/1 (had ran over 2m 4f G2)

     

    BLINKERS - Very Wood won in first time cheek pieces with a masterful Paul Carberry ride. Also Nenuphar Collonges 2007 from 15 triers in total. Nenuphar always wore blinkers and won this off a rating 134. It is now a G1. Champers On Ice 3wrd in cheekpieces only qualifier last year. Two failed in 2014 including Tea For Two in first time hood.

     

    No previous winner of this has yet to come back and win any Festival hurdle. Unowhatimeanharry. As a novice chaser Wichita Lineman was carried home by AP to win the JLT 3 mile H'cap Chase. We will never see his like again.

     

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Wealth Warning. Any decisions made (or not) or the basis of any information in this site are the sole responsibility of the reader. There is no obligation on me to follow my own advice (Gary). The Stats Proverb says 'Relevance Is In The Eye Of The Beholder.' I take no responsibility for (but am keen to hear of) any factual errors. Previous years ‘stats on stats’ would suggest we may identify a decent priced winner from manageable groups every three or four races. I tend to improve as a tipster as the week goes on, possibly too concerned on the Tuesday. It is believed that Savello (2014 Grand Annual) took from Golden Chieftain (2013 3m hcap chase) the record for breaking the most stats in a race. Stands now at 8. Cole Harden equalised with 8 in the 2015 World Hurdle. Remember, after you have cursed/laughed at me and given up totally on trends, they will come back to bite. Always happens. Usually on Gold Cup Day

Beware GO SEA - Groundless Optimism Syndrome Encouraged by Alcohol. A Cotswold condition very common at this time of year.