• Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle

    HEADLINES

    11 of the 13 had been 1st or 2nd last time out in Graded Class

    5 winners of the G2 January 2m 5f course trial have lined up. 3 won, one placed

    11 of the last 12 six or seven years of age

    Only one French Bred winner in last 12

    Willie Mullins is no respecter of Cheltenham Stats

    Six were course winners. Five others had never been here before.

     

    Summary

    Race Distance - about 3 miles. Going 13 years. Winner to be 6 or 7 years old. Has won hurdle race over at least 2m 4f. Santini solid chance on the record of January course form. May not have already run over 3 miles. Al least 3 runs over hurdles. 1st or 2nd last time out in Graded Class. Hasn't come from the Flat unless W Mullins. Irish trained have recently punched above their numbers. Course winner if given the chance. Irish or Eng Bred. Any price. Not beaten favourite last time unless placed in Graded shorter trip.

  • Evidence

     

    The 2m 4f plus Graded races at Cheltenham earlier in the season produce winners here.

    2010 - Berties Dream had been 3rd to Tell Massini in November G2, Restless Harry, fell last here, had previously won G2 in January.
    2011 - Mossley 2nd won the 3 mile December Novice. In the G2 in January 2011, Bobs Worth beat Rock On Ruby who was subsequently touched off in the line.
    2012 - Nothing placed figured in Brindisi Breeze's year had raced here before.
    2013 - In January, At Fishers Cross beat The New One. Fishers then won this.

    2014 - Nothing placed had been here before. 1st and 3rd Irish trained

    2015 - First four home Irish trained. All never been here before.

    2016 - Unowhatimeanharry won Albert Bartlett Trial in December. Shantou Village won Nov Neptune Trial, started 7/2 fav here PU. Champers on Ice, 3rd here, had finished 2nd to Shantou.

    2017 - 1-2 Irish Trained. Wholestone in 3rd had won both of the two previous course novices.

     

    CHELTENHAM TRIALS - This season in the course November Ballymore Trial On The Blind Side bt Momella and Poetic Rhythm on good to soft. Poet Rhythm giving weight to the first and second. Good form.

     

    Albert Bartlett trial in December won by Kilbricken Storm outstaying Mount Meribel. on soft. 7 winners of that have turmed up in March, 3 winners. 'Harry first since Nenuphar Collonges in 2008. Wholestone 3rd

     

    January 1st Balymore Listed over 2m 5f went to Tikanbar over Aichea. Both beaten since.

     

    January 2m5f G2 went to Santini from Black Op, the pair clear. Soft ground. Only 5 winners of this race have lined up for the Albert Bartlett, 3 won, Wholestone last year got 3rd, Restless Harry fell at the last when still pitching against Berties Dream.

     

    AGE - Apart from Moulin Riche (5 yrs) and Unowhatimeanharry (8 yrs) the remaining 11 were all six or seven years of age.

     

    Penhill became the only winner since Moulin Riche to have run on the flat. (That man Willie Mullins again. No respect for stats). Last 2 before 'Harry came from Irish point to points.

     

    African Gold (2nd 2013) first River Don winner at Doncaster late January to get involved in the finish of this. Barters Hill 4th here in 2016. Last year N Henderson's Constantine Bay bt No Hassle Hoff in a hard race at Doncaster. Again finished a very credible fourth here. This year Enniscoffey Oscar in another hard Doncaster race outstayed Shannon Bridge. Their Doncaster 6 mins 07 was 12 seconds slower than each of the previous two years.
     
    IRISH TRAINED - 68 of the total 235 runners have been Irish Trained (29%). 6 from 15 last year, 8 out of 20 in 2016r. Have produced five of the last nine winners Penhill 16s Martello Tower 16s, Very Wood 33s, Berties Dream '10 Weapon's Amnesty '09, six seconds (Monalee 8s Fagan 33s) and four thirds. 2015 7 from 20 runners. 2012 Boston Bob 6/5 fav couldn't get to Brindisi Breeze. Irish trained would have produced another second if Black Harry hadn't fallen at the last in '07. Cracking Smart (ante post fav inj). Next Destination, Duc Des Genievres, Chris's Dream
     

    W Mullins - Last years winner from 29 runners including three short priced favourites. Ran 6 of the eight Irish in 2016, best Balko Des Flos in 5th.

     

    G2 2m 4f Novice Hurdle (Leopardstown, late January) has produced Martello TowerLiskennett (2nd), Weapons Amnesty and Boston Bob, and Windsor Park. Nothing came last year. Now a 2m 6f G1 Novice. Tower Bridge half a length from Jetz. Berties Dream finished 4th in the Boyne Hurdle before winning this. He was a trier. Tipped up by Andrew Lynch 33s Belfast Preview Night. Penhil strolled home in G2 Limerick late December bog. A good ground stayer on the Flat. Unowhatimeanharry threw in winning an Exeter Pertemps Qualifier after a Cheltenham G2 before coming here.

     

    Brindisi Breeze hadn't run at Cheltenham before but came form the G2 Albert Bartlett race at Haydock in mid February. The Worlds End won at Haydock then fell here 'upsides' two out. Chef Des Obeaux comfortably this year at Haydock

     

    12 from the 13 had won a hurdle race over 2m 4f or further ('Harry and Martello Tower had each won twice over 3 miles, Brindisi Breeze came from the heavy ground 3m novice at Haydock won this year by Chef Des Obeaux. Not Very Wood but had won a 4 yr old 3m Oldcastle P2P (left handed, stiff climb to finish) Had finished 3l 3rd in 2m 4f Naas G2. Moulin Riche 2nd in his Haydock race had won over 2m 4f in France.

     

    7 of the 13, 3 or 4 runs over hurdles ('Harry and Berties had 14, Moulin 8 both second season novices, Martello Tower and At Fishers Cross, both 6 hurdle runs ,Penhill had seven, on the go since May, obviously seen as a summer hurdler).

     

    Moulin Riche had won at Listed level in France, 10 others had won a Graded hurdle, Berties and Very Wood just placed .

     

    11 were 1st or 2nd last time out in Graded class (Very Wood 3rd, Berties had been 4th).

     

    6 were course winners, Berties placed. Penhill, Martello Tower, Very Wood, Brindisi and Weapon's Amnesty had never been here before. Moulin Riche beaten both in Triumph and in a Chelt 2m 4f novice earlier that season.
     

    Black Jack Ketchum only unbeaten horse to win this. 'Harry, Bobs Worth and At Fishers Cross were unbeaten that season.

     

    6 of the 13 had raced around Cheltenham as least twice. 7 hadn't

     

    31 from the 39 win and placed so far were all 1st or 2nd last time out. Only covered 10 of the 15 last year, 15 of the 20 runners in 2016. Won't be much of a discriminator.

     

    Only 25 from 39 win and placed had already raced over 3 miles hurdle races. 1-2-3 last year and 1-2 in 2016 had done so. Placed horses in 2015 had run over 2m 6f. In 2014 none of the first three if you recall the number of front runners in that race picked off by Very Wood. Both At Fishers and Brindisi had raced over 3 miles, previous two hadn't.
     

    BREEDING - Both Penhill and 'Harry ENG bred. Nenuphar and Moulin were FRE, the rest Irish bred.

     

    SHORT PRICED FAVOURITES - Death Duty 13/8, Black Hercules, Briar Hill, Boston Bob and Brewster in '05 favourites under 3/1 and beaten. 2016 Surely not the devil 's letter B with Barters Hill? No. he started second fav at 4/1. (PU fav was Shantou Village at 7/2) 4 other favourites under 3/1 have won (including Bobs Worth and Black Jack Ketchum). LOL. But also two 33/1 shots and a 14/1 winner in 2016. 'Harry returned 11s. In 2014 Kings Palace was also backed from 4s in to 5/2 second fav. A long Gold Cup day of wonderful results for bookmakers.
     

    25 last time beaten favourites have ran. One winner, Weapons Amnesty at 9/1 (had ran over 2m 4f G2)

     

    BLINKERS - Very Wood won in first time cheek pieces with a masterful Paul Carberry ride. Also Nenuphar Collonges 2007 from 15 triers in total. Nenuphar always wore blinkers and won this off a rating 134. It is now a G1. 3 unpld last year. Champers On Ice 3rd in cheekpieces only qualifier 2016. Two failed in 2014 including Tea For Two in first time hood.

     

    No previous winner of this has yet to come back and win any Festival hurdle. Penhill. As a novice chaser Wichita Lineman was carried home by AP to win the JLT 3 mile H'cap Chase. We will never see his like again.

     

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Wealth Warning.  Any decisions made (or not) or the basis of any information in this site are the sole responsibility of the reader.  There is no obligation on me to follow my own advice (Gary).  I take no responsibility for (but am keen to hear of) any factual errors.  Previous years ‘stats on stats’ would suggest we may identify a decent priced winner from manageable groups every three or four races.  I tend to improve as a tipster as the week goes on, possibly too worried on the Tuesday.  It is believed that Savello (2014 Grand Annual) took from Golden Chieftain (2013 3m hcap chase) the record for breaking the most stats in a race.  Stands now at 8.  Cole Harden equalised with 8 in the 2015 World Hurdle.  Remember, after you have cursed/laughed at me and given up totally on trends, they will come back to bite.  Always happens.  Usually on Gold Cup Day

Beware GO SEA - Groundless Optimism Syndrome Encouraged by Alcohol.  A Cotswold condition very common at this time of year.