• Magners Cheltenham Gold Cup

    HEADLINES

    This century no horse has:

     

    A. Won this having been a beaten favourite last time out

    B. Won having run on officially heavy ground that season

    C. Won aged 10 years or over, including four favourites

     

    No winner in the last 30 yrs won a GC without a previous chase run that season.

    Only Native River of the last 12 has won a GC having run in it before

    Only one horse wearing headgear has won in 17 years

    Only 2 winners this century had raced over further than the GC trip

    11 of the last 14 were rated 166+ before their win

    17 of last 19 no more than 12 chase runs

    11 of last 12 not more than three chase runs that season

    18 of the last 19 were previous G1 chase winners

    No King George/GC double since 2011

    No trainer has ever won Ch Hurdle, QM and GC in the same year

    Summary

    Race Distance - 3 miles and abt two and a half furlongs. Will be aged between 7 and 9. Doesn't need to have run in the Newbury Hennessy, King George or Lexus Chases. Will have finished placed at a previous Festival or in a G1 this season or will be at least a course winner. Must have run at previous Festival unless a novice. No worse than placed last time. Has not ran on officially heavy ground this season. At least 31 days off before coming here. No more than three previous runs this season. Has won this season or won a G1 Chase at the 2018 Festival. Unlikely to have been beaten in a previous Gold Cup. Has had between 5 and 12 times runs over fences. Is a previous Grade 1 Chase winner or placed in this before. Not blinkered. Something 16/1 or bigger to be placed. Winner BHA rated 166+. Time to be about 6 mins 40. Not Pipe trained. Last prep run was over 3 miles or Tramore. Hasn't raced over more than GC trip unless won a Welsh National. Not F, U, PU this season. Second season chasers outperform their numbers. Not beaten favourite last time out.

  • Evidence

     

    AGE - Long Run in 2011 as a 6yr old, Cool Dawn ’98 and Cool Ground ’93, both 10 yr olds are only winners since Desert Orchid '89 to have not been aged 7, 8 or 9 years. No horse older than 10 has won this since What A Myth ’69. In last 12yrs, of those 10 yrs or older to have run, On His Own, Denman (twice), Kauto Star, Mon Mome, Hedgehunter ’06 and See More Business '02 all placed. Four ran over the past two years, all unplaced. None finished in the first three in the last five years or in the first four in 2015. First three home last year aged 7, 9 and 8 respectively. In 2018 it was 8, 9 and 8. In 2017 all placed were seven yr olds. Unplaced 10 yr olds have included Thistlecrack at 12/1 last year, 2016 Cue Card 5/2 fell three out (its a faint memory now, but no, Paddy, no, don't go to pass there, not the third last). Cue Card again fell 2017, Kauto 3/1 pu behind Synchronised, Kauto 8/11 and fell in 2010, See More Business 9/4 fav in '00, Looks Like Trouble 9/2 fav '02, Commanche Court 8/1 '03, Grey Abbey 15/2 '05, Beef or Salmon 4/1 fav in '06. Both Cool Dawn and Cool Ground mentioned above were 25/1 outsiders.

    10 yrs and older possibles for 2020 include Native River, Alpha Des Obeaux, Bellshill. No six year olds entered for 2020.
     

    Mac Vidi 1980 oldest ever placed horse at 15 yrs of age.

     

    Apart from Don Cossack (18), Kauto (20) no other winner in past 20 years had more than 14 chases before GC win (Al Boum Photo 7, Native River 12, Sizing John 9, Coneygree, a novice with 3, Lord Windermere 9, Bobs Worth only 5, Long Run had 9). To praise Paul Nicholls, See More Business was placed at 40/1 as a 12 yr old (his 26th chase). The Giant Bolster placed again 2014 on his 20th Chase. Going back from 2013, the previous 14 before that had between 6 and 12 runs over fences before winning. The Fellow ’94, 28th run over fences but only eleven in GB (might have won more with a pilot other than Monsieur Kondrat, some say). Even Best Mate’s third success was only his 13th chase( (Frodon 26, Elegant Escape 16, Bristol De Mai 25). Presenting Percy only 9 chases, seems to have been around forever.

     

    BETTING - 8 of the last 17 favourites have won but only one of the last six. (First run in this format in 1924, 30 favourites have won this from 91 runnings - pointless but wonderful information). Before Best Mate’s second win in 2003, 7 of previous 11 favourites had been 5/2 and under and all of those were beaten. Before Best Mate’s two successes as winning favourite, the last 11 favourites who started 7/4 and under were all beaten. Presenting Percy 100/30 fav last year, finished 8th and lame.

     

    ANOTHER OUTSIDER DUE? - Happened last year Al Boum Photo 6th fav at 12/1. Placed horses 22/1 and 18/1. Al joined Lord Windermere at 20s and Sizing John (2017 4th fav at 7/1) as the only winners going back to See More Business (16s 1999) who weren't from first three in the market. Longest priced of all those others winners - Sychronised 8/1 co third favourite from 14s. He was probably only third favourite because of Pricewise that morning. In the 2018 race it was two of the front three the whole way after Our Duke @ 9/2 was pulled up. In 2016 the first four in the market were the only ones ever involved, if Don Poli only distantly. I work as an on course clerk. no stats to prove it, but these things go round. I did say last year - 'Might be due another one 10s or above.'

     

    BIG PRICED PLACERS - Having said that Annibale Fly 33s and 22s, Bristol De Mai 18s ensures that there is every chance that a 'fat' one will get placed. Minella Rocco 18s in 2017. Before the 2014's placepot busting 1-2-3 of Lord Windermere/On His Own/The Giant Bolster, the last 21 Gold Cups have had those starting 16/1 or bigger producing 23 top three finishes in total. That makes it now three wins, ten runners up and ten thirds in last 21. The Giant Bolster 50/1 runner up 2012, Mon Mome 50/1 third 2010.

     

    STAYERS - Lots of extremely talented but non staying horses have been found out over 3 miles 2 furlongs. Examples include Djakadam, Wayward Lad, Celtic Shot, Bradbury Star, Merry Gale, Dublin Flyer, One Man, Strong Promise and Florida Pearl. (I will fight anyone who says Cue Card). However only 16 of last 28 had previously won over a distance in excess of 3m. (Al Boum Photo had only won over 2 m6f at Tramore, Native River a Welsh National, Sizing John won an Irish Gold Cup, Don Cossack over 3m 1f at Punchestown, Lord Windermere and Bobs Worth both won RSAs, Coneygree only had won over 3m). Before Kauto regained GC in '09, Denman '08 was first of 5 to have previously run in a race in excess of 3 miles. Santini won the Cotswold Chase over 3m, 1 1/2 f.

     

    This century only Synchronised and Native River had previously run over further than the GC trip. Both Welsh National winners

     

    Against all of that, 13 horses this century had never run in excess of 3 miles before and started in single figure prices. 7 won, including Sizing John and Coneygree. (Matt Tombs, knows his stuff). No qualifiers last year, all those in single figure prices had run at distances over 3 miles, in 2018 only qualifier Killultagh Vic 8/1 PU.

     

    Talking about stayers, Minella Rocco and Native River 1st and 2nd in the 2016 now G2 National Hunt Chase filled the places here in 2017 behind Sizing John.

     

    Coneygree first novice successful since Captain Christy ’74. Dawn Run won on only her 4th chase, Dorans Pride finished 3rd as a novice in 1997. (None ran in the 10 before Coneygree and he himself had no idea how experienced were those trailing behind him in his wake). Last four novices were 2000 Gloria Victis 13/2 fell 2 out when still in contention, 2003 Beef Or Salmon 5/1 fell, 2004 Therealbandit 15/2 fell, 2006 Iris's Gift 16s PU. Can't see any novices this year. None ran 2019.

     

    IRISH TRAINED In last 20, 6 winners and 17 placed from 71 runners (9 from 16 last year resulting in a 1-2, 9 from 15 runners 2018, best in third. 4 from 13 in 2017, winner and fourth, 6 from 10 in 2016 gave a 1-2-3-4, 7 from 16 in 2015, Djakakam and Road To Riches placed, 1-2 in 2014, Sir Des Champs on his own, 2nd in 2013, China Rock on his own 2012, 8th). Big squad this year again? Al Boum Photo, Delta Work, Presenting Percy, Kemboy, Monalee, Chris's Dream... W Mullins has trained 6 runners up, Djakadam twice, On His Own, Sir Des Champs, Hedgehunter and Florida Pearl. Djakadam also finished fourth and fifth. A warrior. And also trained Al Boum Photo.
     

    GALWAY PLATE - Don't recognise any Gold Cup winners in Galway Plate winner's roster. Clarcam won in 2018. Nothing came here and I can't see anthing this year. Balko Des Flos won it in 2017 and then went on to stroll past Un De Sceaux in 2018 Ryanair.

     

    RED MILLS Chase - Can't see a GC Winner in the role of honour although Anibale Fly finished 2nd in both last year. Monalee won at Gowran last year but was outpaced in the Ryanair. In 2017 Our Duke won from Presenting Percy, the latter's next run was to win the RSA. Chris's Dream from Shattered Love, pair well clear.

     

    M/D.Pipe. 3 placed horses in career total of 30 losers. No entries in last decade. Its over.
     

    P Nicholls - Kauto/Denman/See More Business Clan Des Obeaux, Frodon. Clan didnt seem to take to the race/track/occasion last year, 5th at 5/1 second fav. Saphir Du Rheu PU 2018. Jonjo ONeill has had 10 runners in this, Synchronised winning Minella Rocco 2nd, Exotic Dancer 2nd, 5th and 3rd in consecutive years, Holywell 4th 2015 and unlucky that the rains came overnight that year.None in last two years and nothing on the horiizon.

     

    CLASS - King George Winners - Since Arkle, Desert Orchid, Best Mate ‘03, Kicking King, Kauto Star (twice) and Long Run 2011 have done the King George/Gold Cup double in the same season. Best Mate was second in King George ‘01. (and didn’t run in King George ‘03 before winning GC in '04). Bobs Worth didn't run between Hennessey and Gold Cup. Silviniaco Conti never seemed to act on the track. Cue Card may have gone close. Might Bite a very honourable second in 2018. Clan Des Obeaux disappointing 5th last year but once again excelled at Kempton.

     

    Placed in this season's King George. 11 of the last 21 Gold Cup winners competed in that years King George. However record of placed horses in that season's King George is patchy at best. '94 The Fellow and '97 Mr Mulligan both won after solid performances in the Kempton race. Since '97, 12 of those finishing 2nd or 3rd at Kempton have taken their chance in March. Best Mate won, Exotic Dancer finished 2nd at Cheltenham, both Kauto 2011 and Long Run 2012 3rd. Captain Chris 6th in 2013 GC, Albertas Run unpl '09 won Ryanair '10. See More Business and Looks Like Trouble both won Gold Cups after being pulled up at Kempton in December. 2016 KG, plenty of debate as to where Don Cossack might have finished after falling two out. 2017 Cue Card well beat by Thistlecrack at Kempton, then fell at the same bloody fence in the GC but beaten at the time. Double Shuffle NR and Tea For Two Unpl 2018. Thistlecrack PU but Native River 3rd at Kempton, 4th here last year. It might be said that daylight was second in the 2019 King George because for the first time that I can remember, neither the 2nd, nor 3rd have bothered to enter the 2020 Gold Cup. Last home, Lostintranslation is still there.

     

    NEWBURY - Three from last 13 came from the Hennessey. Denman and Bobs Worth won it as favourites, Lord Windermere finished 8th. 2017 Native River was 3rd in GC. Apart from The Tank and Bobs Worth, Jodami and Bregawn are the only four to do the GC double in the past 46 years. 2018 Total Recall fell three out here when still in with a shout. The Conditional, Elegant Escape

     

    WELSH NATIONAL - Master Oats '95 last one to do the double in one season. Welsh National was run at Newbury due to weather problems at Chepstow. (Thankyou Paul Jones for correction). Burrough Hill Lad 1983 the one before that. He was a huge horse. Synchronised won at Chepstow in 2010 before taking the Gold Cup in 2012. Native River did the 2016 - 2018 double. Elegant Escape would be the only one with this type of form. Won a Welsh National, placed in two Newbury Hennesseys.

     

    Previous quality track form. 16 of the last 22 Gold Cup winners had finished placed at a previous Festival. Not Al Boum Photo, fell and broke Ruby's leg at the scond last when 3rd behind Presenting Percy in the 2018 RSA. Native River was placed in a 4 miler and a GC, Sizing John 2nd in an Arkle, 3rd in a Supreme. Don Cossack 3rd in a Ryanair, B Cooper was called a lot of names, even by G Elliott. Not Coneygree, Synchronised, Kauto (the first time), Imperial Call, See More Business. 26 from last 31 either course winners or placed at a previous festival (exceptions include Al Boum Photo, Synchronised, Imperial Call, and Kauto). Synchronised came here from a facile Lexus win, Imperial Call won an Irish Hennessey. War of Attrition came from being 2nd to Beef or Salmon in a Irish GC at Leopardstown and had won a G2 in November. Coneygree and Kauto both came from winning the G2 (now called) Denman Chase. Kauto had won the King George that season). Coneygree twice won course G2 Novice Hurdles. Coneygree only winner in the last 22 not to have run in a previous Festival. Lots of contenders in 2020 with quality course form. Al Boum Photo, Bristol De Mai, Delta Work, Native River, Frodon, Presenting Percy. Those without the placed Festival Form or course win include Clan Des Obeaux, Kemboy, Chris's Dream

     

    Imperial Call '96 and Jodami '93 last two Gold Cup winners without any previous course experience. Both came directly from winning the Irish Hennessey. Delta Work has won a Pertemps and been placed in an RSA.

     

    All bar Native River of the last 18 were previous Grade 1 Chase winners (including Coneygree with a Feltham). Lots of them here. Al Boum Photo had won a Ryanair Gold Cup at Fairyhouse at Easter. Not Chris's Dream
     

    HEAVY GROUND - No winner this century has won this having run on heavy ground this season (Matt Tombs - How To Bet and Win at the Festival). Can't believe that Don Cossack's jog in the Kinloch Brae at Thurles 2016 was on soft ground? Looked like a swamp to me. In 2018 this stat correctly took out Our Duke, the 9/2 second fav. Elegant Escape. In all Grade 1 chases at the Festival going back to 2005 of the last 50 to have run on heavy ground within the last 30 days, 6 placed, no winners. In fairness, most of those were big prices.

      

    Red Mills chase at Gowran mid February has been going since 1990. Don't see any winners of that having been placed at the Festival. Mind you Presenting Percy 2nd in 2018 was then a very impressive RSA winner. Anibale Fly second at Gowran last year, then second in GC. Monalee, the winner, then fourth to Frodon.
     

    Kauto Star only horse to have won the Betfair Million. Still will be.

     

    THISTLECRACK - No Winner of the World Hurdle/Stayers has gone on to win GC since 1972. Not running this year. Brown Lad was the Stayers winner '75 closest being 1976 and '78 as GC runner up both times. Brown Lad was some horse. Didn't make his debut until he was an eight yr old and went on to be the only horse to win three Irish Grand Nationals, the last one in 1978 at the age of 12. I stood at the last fence when he jogged round Down Royal one day in late 1977. Seemed a lovely, huge placid animal in parade ring.

     

    Apart from Lord Windermere and Imperial Commander, all back to See More Business '99 at least all won that season. Both the exceptions were G1 Festival winners the previous year. Commander had been beaten a nose at Haydock in Betfair Chase in his GC season. Al Boum Photo, one run, one win at Tramore.

     

    28 out of last 32 finished at least 3rd last time (exceptions are Lord Windermere 6th in Irish Hennessey, Imperial Commander unpl King George, Cool Dawn PU with an injury problem and Mr Mulligan, fell at last when second in King George). Problems here for Lostintranslation, Elegant Escape, amongst others.

     

    Irish Breds have won the 14 from last 22 (Sizing by Midnight Legend ENG bred, Don Cossack by Sholokhov GER bred. Coneygree by Karinga Bay and Imperial Commander by Flemensfirth both English Bred. Al Boum, Kauto and Long Run, all French Bred). Last year, 6 of the 14 runners were FR bred, resulting in a 1-2-3-5.

     

    Now called the Cotswold Cup Cheltenham Trials day. Is a G2. First became a recognised Gold Cup Trial in ’95 when Master Oats did the double. Since then only winners to have competed in both are Looks Like Trouble (Gold Cup Winner), See More Business ’99 was third in January before winning the Gold Cup that year. 2016 Djakadam fell in January and then 2nd here. Smad Place won in January, 6th here. 2016 Thistlecrack outstayed by warrior Many Clouds. In the last 10 yrs only Neptune Collonges and The Giant Bolster have come from this race to be placed in GC. Last year Frodon (went elsewhere) from Elegant Escape 6th here. Santini from Bristol De Mai.

     

    Synchronised first to do the Lexus/Savilles double since ‘96. (Delta Work). Road To Respect 4th here last year in Ryanair. Don Poli, Road To Riches both won at Leopardstown before finishing 3rd here.

     

    Al Boum Photo,Native River, Sizing John, Coneygree and Bobs Worth first since Cool Dawn 1998 not to have run in that season's King George or Savilles Chase. Neither had Djakadam first time placed. Becoming less and less of a trend. (None of Al Boum Photo, Santini, Native River, Bristol De Mai, Frodon have run in either this season).

     

    Kauto Star, Desert Orchid 1989 the last winner of this to compete in a graded non novice race over 2 miles. Kauto ran in a QM and won a Tingle Creek. Not sure of the significance but thank you Nick Mordin wherever you may be.

     

    Alverton '79 only horse to win an Arkle and a Gold Cup. Neither Duc De Genievres nor Footpad are entered this year. Not applicable this year.

     

    Al Boum Photo, Sizing John, Don Cossack and Lord Windermere first Irish Trained winners since Captain Christy in '74 not to have run well in that season's John Durkan. Min beat Hardline with Presenting Percy in third.

     

    The winner of the Charlie Hall chase has not won that season's Gold Cup since at least 1988. Even Silviniaco Conti couldn't overcome that bogey. Looks Like Trouble 2000 was third at Wetherby and then did the Cotswold/Gold Cup double. Definitly Red unplcd last year. Ballyoptic beat Elegant Escape

     

    PREVIOUS RUNS - 22 from last 24 no more than 4 previous runs that season (Al Boum Photo, one run, Native River, one run in the Denman, 'couldn't overcome the bounce factor' said Timeform. Long Run 2 in 2011, Synchronised 3, Bobs Worth only 1, Lord Windermere and Coneygree both 3). Al Boum, Native River, Bobs Worth first since Garrison Savannah '91 to have just one run that season. Latter two join Garrison as well being the last two winners not to have run since before Boxing Day. Apart from The Fellow and Kauto (first time) all other winners at least 31 days off before this (15th February). Al Boum 73 days.

     

    Only Easter Hero in 1929 won having not had a run over fences that season. Presenting Percy tried it unsuccessfully last year. Al Boum, Native River, Bobs Worth, and Garrison Savannah all one after one race that season, all in chases. Bregawn '83 ran in a chase ten days before the Gold Cup. What A Myth initially jogged around in a Hunters Chase before winning GC two runs and three weeks later.

     

    Since '87 all bar Al Boum Photo, Nortons Coin and Don Cossack had their prep run over 3 miles. (The Tramore G3 is only 2m 5 1/2 furlongs, but its so sharp, they jump the fence in front of the stands four times). G Elliott sent Don Cossack to the Kinloch Brae after the King George. Obviously concerned about another Cheltenham Stat, winning off the back of a fall.

     

    Apart from Al Boum (1st January), Native River (10th Feb) Sizing John (27th Dec), last 30 all had their seasonal debuts before Christmas. 10 of the past 18 not run since January 1st.

     

    9 of the last 23 achieved a F, B, P or U in their form figures that season. Only Don Cossack F in KG from the last nine. Lord Windermere's season form figures were 876. Lostintranslation P

     

    RSA - GOLD CUP DOUBLE - Completed by Lord Windermere, Bobs Worth, Denman '07, Looks Like Trouble ‘00 and Garrison Savannah ‘91. That is, five from the last 16 to try. Topofthegame inj. Presenting Percy disappointed, Might Bite was second, Blaklion didn't come. Of the eight to come 10/1 and under in this, three winners, a second and three thirds. Mr. Mulligan second in the RSA when short priced favourite and Florida Pearl was placed twice in this race after winning the RSA. To back that up, 15 from the last 28 were either a novice or a second season chaser from a smaller percentage of numbers. Al Boum was a second season chaser. Not Native River but second and third were. 1-2-3 in 2017, 3rd 2016, 1-2-3 in 2015, 1st in 2014 from 3 runners. First and second in 2013 from 3 qualifiers. Delta Work, Santini, Lostintranslation, Real Steel.

     

    Native River joined Kauto Star 2007 (second time) first winners since Bregawn ’83 to improve on a placed effort to win the next season's Gold Cup. Bristol De Mai. And the first two since Kerstin in ‘58 to improve from runner up to winner 12 months later. Big stats. Anibale Fly not entered.

     

    Matt Tombs' ONE CHANCE SALOON - Native River stabbed this stat in 2018. Since The Fellow, all bar Native River, See More Business and Kauto of the last 87 to get beat in a Gold Cup and come back again have been beaten again. Apart from Native River in 2018, four others turned up to get beaten again. This years suspects will include Bristol De Mai, Clan Des Obeaux, Elegant Escape, Native River, Presenting Percy, Shattered Love. And poor old See More Business wasn't actually beaten. He was carried out after half a circuit by AP trying to pull up Cyborgo. (Shssh, no one remembers that). It is probably easier to say that only Native River of the last 12 winners had raced in the race before. Similar sort of stat to the Queen Mother (ignoring Sprinter Scare and Special Tiara) and worth considering.

     

    Can't find a winner who was beaten in first GC, won second GC, beaten in third GC, won 4th GC. Native River As Tom Segal Pricewise says, 'they have only got so many races of this quality in them.'

     

    Kauto Star first horse to ever regain the Gold Cup. Long Run gallantly finished third when trying. Before Kauto, See More Business was the only GC winner to try and regain it since Jodami. He tried twice, best 3rd once at 40s as a 12 yr old. Between '89 and '95, 5 tried, all no hopers apart from Jodami '95 7/2 unpl and injured after coming from an Irish Hennessey win. Desert Orchid 4/1 3rd to Garrison Savannah in '91 after 4/6 winner of 4 runner limited handicap Agfa Diamond Chase. Conclusion - being the first to regain the GC may not be the wonder stat it has been painted however even being able to attempt it illustrates the fragility of racehorses and the skills of PN Nicholls. Native River would have to be really special.

     

    RATINGS - 16 from last 19 rated 166+ before win (Al Boum Photo 164, War Of Attrition 157). Native River 166, Sizing John 167, Don Cossack 175, underrated Synchronised was 166. Lord Windermere was only 152. Coneygree 166. Seven of the 14 last year 166+ best Bristol De Mai. 2018 Five of the fifteen runners were rated 166+ including 1st and 2nd home. In 2017 it was 6 from 13 including 1st and third. After the 2019 Irish Gold Cup, Irish Ratings Al Boum Photo 175, Delta Work 171, Kemboy 175, Monalee 166, Presenting Percy 166 and Chris's Dream 160. In UK Lostintranslation 173, Frodon 169, Clan Des Obeaux 173

     

    TIMES - Last year Al Boum Photo, 6 mins 40 secs in G to S. Fastest time of the day against standard by at about 8 secs. 2018 in soft ground Native River slugged it round in 7 mins 3 secs. In 2017 Sizing John, 2016 6.36 (fastest of the day against standard), Don Cossack in 6 mins 35secs, two seconds faster than standard. 2015 Coneygree 6mins 43 secs on soft ground. Comparing 2014 6mins 44secs on good ground would suggest that Coneygree went some lick up front. (Watch it again and see how fast they went over the first two fences). 2013 (Bobs Worth) on rain sodden ground 7 mins 6 secs. 2012 (Synchronised) below standard 6.36. In Long Run's 2011 they went round in a track record in just under 6 mins 30 secs, 7 secs under standard, In 2010 (Imperial Commander) the ground was also given as good - time was 6 mins 49. Only Looks like Trouble 6.30 (Good to Firm) and War of Attrition 6.31 faster. The roll then reads Mr Mulligan 6.35, Cool Dawn and Best Mate (2) 6.39, Kauto, See More Business 6.41, Kicking King and Best Mate (3) 6.42 and Best Mate (1) 6.50.

     

    2019 Irish Gold Cup, Delta Work did 6 mins 27 secs (yielding), 8 seconds slower than he did with allegedly the same ground at Xmas, 2017 Savilles/Lexus time 6 mins 8 secs on yielding ground. 2018 Irish Gold Cup 6.25 on soft. Santini Cotswold Chase 2020 6 mins 59 secs. 2019 Frodon 6 mins 36 on G to S. 18 seconds faster than Definitly Red in 2018 admittedly on heavy ground. King George Kempton Clan Des Obeaux did 6mins 10secs on soft ground at Kempton, 10 secs faster than on Good to Soft last season. This December he was 7 secs faster than Slate House in the Feltham an hour earlier. Novices carry three lbs less., 2017 Might Bite 6 mins 7 secs, soft ground but some 14 seconds slower than Thistlecrack's KG win in 2016 and even slower than Might Bite's own performance in the Feltham in 2016.

     

    Native River jogged round the Denman Chase 2020 in 5 mins 56 (good ground), did win well but was in a time 4secs slower than the handicap chase an hour later won by Sussex Ranger off a rating of 126.

     

    BLINKERS - Last year 2 ran, Native River best. 2018 Native River wins in blinkers he always wears, Road To Respect 4th in his usual hood. Only winner in last 17 yrs from 43 triers. Minella Rocco 2nd 2017 cheekpieces, Holywell 4th was best of six in 2015. The Giant Bolster wore a visor in 3rd 2014, Long Run 3rd in 2013 in blinkers.

     

    BEATEN FAVOURITE LAST TIME - This century 29 beaten favourites last time have tried their luck. No winners. Elegant Escape, Might Bite last year. No qualifiers 2018. In 2017 Djakadam (once again) and Bristol De Mai. Qualifiers 2020 Elegant Escape, Kemboy, The Conditional.

     

     

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Wealth Warning.  Any decisions made (or not) or the basis of any information in this site are the sole responsibility of the reader.  There is no obligation on me to follow my own advice.  I take no responsibility for (but am keen to hear of) any factual errors.  (Bgault01@gmail.com, @gaultstats). Previous years ‘stats on stats’ would suggest we may identify a decent priced winner from manageable groups every three or four races.  It is believed that Savello (2014 Grand Annual) took from Golden Chieftain (2013 3m hcap chase) the record for breaking the most stats in a race.  Stands now at 8.  Cole Harden equalised with 8 in the 2015 World Hurdle.  Remember, after you have cursed/laughed at me and given up totally on trends, they will come back to bite.  Always happens.  Usually on Gold Cup Day. 

Beware GO SEA - Groundless Optimism Syndrome Encouraged by Alcohol.  A Cotswold condition very common at this time of year.