Wealth Warning. Any decisions made (or not) or the basis of any information in this site are the sole responsibility of the reader. There is no obligation on me to follow my own advice (Gary). The Stats Proverb says 'Relevance Is In The Eye Of The Beholder.' I take no responsibility for (but am keen to hear of) any factual errors. Previous years ‘stats on stats’ would suggest we may identify a decent priced winner from manageable groups every three or four races. I tend to improve as a tipster as the week goes on, possibly too concerned on the Tuesday. It is believed that Savello (2014 Grand Annual) took from Golden Chieftain (2013 3m hcap chase) the record for breaking the most stats in a race. Stands now at 8. Cole Harden equalised with 8 in the 2015 World Hurdle. Remember, after you have cursed/laughed at me and given up totally on trends, they will come back to bite. Always happens. Usually on Gold Cup Day
Beware GO SEA - Groundless Optimism Syndrome Encouraged by Alcohol. A Cotswold condition very common at this time of year.
AGE - 5 yr olds. 2016 4 ran best Top Notch in 5th. 2015 two outsiders outclassed, 2014 Our Conor 5s tragically killed, Petit Zig 6th at 28s. 2013 Countrywide Flame 3rd (16s) Balder Success (UR). Before Katchit, only Persian War, Night Nurse and See You Then won as 5 yr olds.
To summarise, all 73 five yr olds since '85 were beaten, until 2008. Since then six of the 26 to try, have been placed. Apart from Binocular (2nd in Supreme) the other five finished in the first 4 in the previous year's Triumph (Footpad). Since Detroit City '06, the winner of the Triumph has ran 7 times in the following year's Champion Hurdle finishing 1/2/3/5/3/F/Last. (Peace and Co has yet to train on) (Ivanovich Gorbatov)
Katchit and Persian War '68 only two Triumph winners to win this the following year. See You Then was only second in the Triumph '84.
Last years Triumph form - Pretty good. Apples Jade is the only 4 year old ever to win the Hattons Grace. Footpad and Lets Dance have won G3s. Clan Des Obeaux and Frodon are very decent chasers. Well down the Triumph field we have Sceaux Royal and Who Dares Win who have won at the least Listed hurdles. As good a form Triumph as I can remember.
Faugheen, Katchit in 2008, Istabraq and Hardy Eustace are the only winners of Festival novice hurdles since 1984 to have returned to Cheltenham and won any hurdle race the following year, all in the Champion Hurdle. Ivanovich Gorbatov
Since 1992, 8 novices competed in this. None of them were five year olds. Ex Flat runners Royal Gait, Alderbrook and Make A Stand all won, Rhinestone Cowboy was 3rd, Ashley Park and Self Defense 4th. (None ran in last eight years).
Hurricane Fly was the first since Rooster Booster winner ‘03 to win at aged 9 yrs. The New One. One before that since Royal Gait in 1992. In the last 16 renewals, four eight year olds and two nine years old have won. 3 of the 5 were returning to win it again. Only 4 winners older than 8 since 1951. To summarise, 10 of the last 11 aged between 6 and 9 years.
Sea Pigeon '81, last 11 yr old to win Champion Hurdle. One before that was Hatton's Grace '51. Both also won it as 10yr olds.
REGAINING CROWN - Hurricane Fly and Comedy Of Errors in 1975 only ones to regain. The Fly won 22 Grade 1s, three in his final season beating the current champion on each occasion. Up with the greatest 2 mile hurdlers there have ever been, if not the best.
M/D Pipe - two winners and a two thirds from their 8 runners that started under 16/1 (‘08 Osana 2nd at 9/2, but stuffed in '09 at 13/2). Nothing good enough to compete last six years. No Northern trained winner for 35 years. N Henderson and Peter Easterby are current record holders with 5 wins each.
Last years Champion Hurdle - Annie Power laughed at My Tent Or Yours and Nichols Canyon, The New One fell. In the last 17, 8 winners ran in the previous year's race. No winner was unplaced in last years race since Fakey Dove 1994 (hard to believe, but that mare ran 11 times flat and hurdles between Champion races).
Result repeated at Punchestown. Same result in Aintree Hurdle. Vroum Vroum took the Punchestown G1. 4 of the last 11 winners finished 3rd in previous year's race. Nichols Canyon.
BETFAIR HURDLE/TOTE GOLD TROPHY - Make A Stand only winner in last 27 to have its last race before Cheltenham in a handicap. Make A Stand joins Persian '68 as the only winners of both in the same season. Persian War then won the second of his three Ch Hurdles in '69. Last Tote Gold Trophy winner to run in this 13 months later was '03 Copeland 25/1 allegedly 'every chance when fell 3 out' in Rooster's year. I must have been watching a different race. In '94 Flakey Dove finished 3rd at Newbury then won here. Agrapart didn't come here last year.
INTERNATIONAL/BULA HURDLE - Rooster Booster ’03 first Bula/Champion Hurdle double since Comedy Of Errors ’74. Since 1987 18 winners of the 'Bula' have attempted the double. Apart from Rooster, Valiramix probably was going to win here before tragedy happened. 4 have finished 2nd (including three of the last five), one was third, one fell and the rest were unplaced (including The New One in 2014, unlucky). Rooster is the only one of the 18 who had won at the Festival in the previous year. The New One bt My Tent or Yours.
Rooster Booster only horse to do County Hurdle then Champion Hurdle (2003). Rooster came here on the back of 4 wins including Bula. Arctic Fire was beaten in the County off 141 then finished second to Faugheen. Superb Story NR
SUPREME NOVICES ‘16 - A great vintage. Altior, Min Buveur D'Air 3rd. Tombstone 4th, Petit Mouchoir only finished 8th. First 11 home have all won decent races. Some have said that even the ambulance has been placed since. Very much a rival to the vintage of 2013. None of the 2014 or 2015 Supreme made any impression on last years Champion Hurdle. All went to other races.
NEPTUNE NOVICE HURDLE - Faugheen won the Neptune '14 by 4 1/2 lengths. In the last 20 years Hardy Eustace and Istabraq also doubled up. Danoli, French Holly, Peddlers Cross and The New One all placed in the Champion the year after winning Neptune. Rock On Ruby won the 2 mile championship the year after his sh hd defeat in the Neptune. It has become very obvious that the Neptune is a better guide than the Supreme to Champion Hurdle contenders. Nichols Canyon has been 3rd in each race. Yanworth going to Champion Hurdle after finishing second to Yorkhill last year.
Timed - In the fastest Champion Hurdle time of the last decade, 3 mins 45.1 secs, Annie Power went round one second faster that Altior had done a little earlier. In 2015 3 47 in goodish ground, Douvan's 2015 Supreme was 3 secs faster than Faugheen 2 hrs later. In 2014 Champagne Fever timed in 3 mins 46 secs in goodish ground, one second slower than Jezki. Novices carry 3lb less. Rock On Ruby's 3 mins 50 in 2012 Champion was 6 seconds faster than the Fly in 2013 and 2 seconds faster than the Fly in 2011. Jezki did 3 mins 45.25 second fastest of the last ten Champion Hurdles. (I wonder who presses the stopwatches) Faugheen 3.48 at Kempton 2015, two secs slower that previous year. He was 3.54 for Irish Champion, Fly 3.57 for same race in 2015. Petit Mouchoir 3mins 55s Leopardstown at Xmas, 3 mins 41s for Irish Champion Hurdle, fastest time against standard for the day.
Bula '71 only horse ever to do Supreme/Champion double in consecutive years. Browne's Gazette '85 should... (its ok, its ok, I hardly ever think of it now). Hors La Loi and Brave Inca did win both but not in consecutive years. Since '84, only 10 have tried and only the Gazette, Like A Butterfly and Go Native (all unplaced) came to the Champion Hurdle on the back of that G1 success. Not happening this year or in the last two.
Faugheen joined Kribensis ’90 of the last 24 Kempton Xmas Hurdle winners to come to complete the Champion double. Yanworth
Up to the introduction of the WBX Million Bonus in '08 it was true to say that anything involved in the Fighting Fifth/Kempton Hurdles had little chance here. Even though the bonus no longer exists the Fighting Fifth now does tend to attract a stronger line up. Irving bt Apples Jade. Petit Mouchoir fell two out when challenging. In the 8 years before 2016 something at least was placed in the Champion which featured at Newcastle. 3 winners and 5 seconds. Arctic Fire 3rd at Newcastle, 2nd here. My Tent or Yours 2nd 2014, Countrywide Flame 3rd 2013, Overturn 2nd 2012, Peddlers Cross 2nd all after winning the Fighting Fifth. Punjabi only one to do the double. Binocular and Katchit both won Champion Hurdles after being beaten at Newcastle. In 2016 both Identity Thief and Top Notch unplaced in Ch Hurdle.
NOVICES - Royal Gait, Alderbrook, and Make A Stand. None
No horse has won this without having a prep run that season. Faugheen injured and not putting it to the test.
Both Beech Road 1989 and Morley Road 1991 gave up novice chase careers that season to return to hurdles and win this. Both won trial hurdles between novice chase career and Champion Hurdle Buveur D'Air won Contenders at Sandown.
All bar Faugheen and Rock On Ruby of the last 20 winners seen out since the Saturday before AIG Irish Champion Hurdle (26th January- 44 days). All bar those two of the last 22 and 29 from last 34 winners all ran since Jan 1. Faugheen and Rock On Ruby first since Granville Again to come straight from the Christmas Hurdle. Even in 2014 N Henderson brought out My Tent Or Yours to win a February jumpers bumper at Kempton to 'get the freshness off him'. Nicky may know his stats but Willie doesn't seem to care for them?
Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton has a reasonable record if not recently. Kribensis '90, Alderbrook '95 won both and Punjabi was third in '09 before Cheltenham. Of the last 14 winners of the Kingwell, 10 went onto the Champion Hurdle. Hors la Loi '02 and Katchit both won, 3 others were placed. Rayvin Black NR 2016. No Kingwell runner up in the last 16 years has gone on to win at Cheltenham that year. Yanworth got home from Ch'tibello and Sceaux Royal.
20 of last 27 previous course winners. Not Jezki (3rd in Supreme), Rock On Ruby(2nd in Neptune), not Binocular (had been 2nd in Supreme Novice and Ch Hurdle), Punjabi (had been 3rd in '08 Champion), Sublimity (4th in a Supreme Novice), Make A Stand (had been beaten in a h'cap). Both Royal Gait and Alderbrook were novices and had never been here before but were both Group 2 Flat winners. Hurricane Fly also not been here before his first win. Came here on the back of beating Solwhit in 4 successive G1s. Wouldn't get up the hill, they said.
No Cheltenham Champion Bumper winner has ever been placed in a Champion Hurdle. Perhaps not relevant this year either.
16 of last 18 were placed at a previous Festival. 11 from last 19 were previous Festival winners. (Faugheen, Fly, Istabraq three times, Hardy Eustace twice, Rooster Booster, Brave Inca, Hors La Loi and Katchit. Not Annie although she would have gone close in the 2015 Mares).
27 of last 33 won on most recent start, exceptions being Celtic Shot ’88, 2nd in an Agfa Hurdle, Granville Again ’93, 3rd in a Christmas Hurdle, Hardy Eustace ‘04 2nd in a Red Mills, Punjabi 3rd in a Kingwell, Rock On Ruby 2nd in Xmas Hurdle, Jezki last in the 2014 AIG. All the wins were over 2m or 2m1f.
25 from last 28 were favourite or second favourite on last run.
Only Rock On Ruby and Sublimity of the past 11 had yet to win a Grade 1.
All bar Annie Power, Faugheen, Jezki, Rock On Ruby and Hardy Eustace of the last 19 winners had run at least 18 times (Flat and Jumps combined) and had won at least 6 times (includes Sublimity). Annie was 15 runs, 13 wins, Faugheen was unbeaten over 9 races, Jezki was 14 and 9, Rock On was 10 and 6, Hardy was 15 and 5 in ‘04. Hurricane Fly was 21 and 11 in 2011, Binocular was 18 and 11 in 2010.
17 from last 20 (not Faugheen (7), Rock On Ruby or Sublimity) had run between 9 and 25 times over hurdles.
16 of last 20 had previously won a Grade I hurdle. Rock On Ruby short head 2nd in a Neptune. Rooster Booster came here from winning the Bula G2, Make A Stand from the G3 Tote Gold Trophy. 16 from the last 20 had won a Grade I or 2 Hurdle that season. Annie won a G1 at the Punchestown Festival. Sublimity broke both these stats but was a listed Flat winner.
Since 1984 only 6 winners were unplaced in any completed run that season. (Jezki most recent, Binocular 5th in a Fighting Fifth). Only Jezki, Punjabi and Binocular of last 14 unplaced in any of previous 2 runs (latter two in Kempton Xmas Hurdle, Punjabi fell when challenging).
Faugheen only winner since at least 1993 started his racing career in a 4 yr old Irish p2p. To be fair can't think of any other runners from that route.
HEADGEAR - Blinkered runners in last 13 races - 3 wins (Hardy Eustace, great rides from C O'Dwyer, Jezki never in blinkers but straight to first time hood) and 6 placed from 36. My Tent always wears a hood. Rock On Ruby won without blinkers but wore them for the first time when second to the Fly in 2013.
Record of previous years winner P11PR21324693244. Annie Power unfortunately out. Hardy Eustace 2005 last to win two in a row.
Punjabi in 2009 only winner this century having been beaten favourite last time out. 2 last year, My Tent and Peace and Co.
BREEDING - 4 mares have won this in 90 years, Annie Power first since Flakey Dove '94, Dawn Run '84. Not many run.
PRICE - 20 of last 24 winners found in first five in the market. Not Sublimity, Hardy Eustace ‘04, Punjabi or Binocular. You would expect that. Four favourites have won in the last six. Maybe enough for a while?