×

Wealth Warning. Any decisions made (or not) or the basis of any information in this site are the sole responsibility of the reader. There is no obligation on me to follow my own advice (Gary). The Stats Proverb says 'Relevance Is In The Eye Of The Beholder.' I take no responsibility for (but am keen to hear of) any factual errors. Previous years ‘stats on stats’ would suggest we may identify a decent priced winner from manageable groups every three or four races. I tend to improve as a tipster as the week goes on, possibly too concerned on the Tuesday. It is believed that Savello (2014 Grand Annual) took from Golden Chieftain (2013 3m hcap chase) the record for breaking the most stats in a race. Stands now at 8. Cole Harden equalised with 8 in the 2015 World Hurdle. Remember, after you have cursed/laughed at me and given up totally on trends, they will come back to bite. Always happens. Usually on Gold Cup Day

Beware GO SEA - Groundless Optimism Syndrome Encouraged by Alcohol. A Cotswold condition very common at this time of year.

  • Sun Bets Stayers Hurdle Race

    HEADLINES

     

    In its 44 race existence only six horses aged nine or older have won. All six were previous Festival winners.

    No five year old has ever won this race

    No Stayers winner ever ran in the Albert Bartlett

    14 from the last 15 all 1st or 2nd last time out.

    10 from the last 11 had no more than 3 runs since the Punchestown Festival

    No headgear winners have won this since Nomadic way in 1992

     

     

     

    Summary

    Race Distance - about 3 miles. Will be aged 6 or 7 yrs or previous winner . If given the chance will have been placed at least in Grade 1 hurdle at 2016 Festival. If not given a Festival chance either has good/winning course form. A second season hurdler. 1st or 2nd last time out and won't have finished outside the first two in hurdles this season. Has run between 6 and 17 times over hurdles or is unbeaten over career. No more than 3 previous runs this season. Irish trained runner to be placed. If good ground race should be run in about 5 mins 45secs. Won’t be wearing headgear. Placed horse to have ran in this season's Cleeve Hurdle. Not needed to have Graded place form over 3 miles. Not beaten favourite last time out nor beaten in this before.
     

  • Evidence

    AGE In its 44 race existence only Solwhit, Gaye Chance, Crimson Embers, Galmoy, Inglis Drever and Big Bucks have won this race when aged 9 or over. Solwhit was a 6 time G1 winner. The six were previous Festival winners and of those only Gaye Chance had not won this race before. Gaye Chance was the last of Fred Rimell's 27 Festival winners. Clondaw Warrior, Jezki, Monksland, Unowhatimeanharry, Zarkandar.

     

    6 and 7 year olds. They have taken 19 from the last 26. As 8 year olds, Inglis Drever and Baracouda were winning for the second time, Big Bucks for the third. The other three were Thistlecrack, Anzum and Balasani (of which I can find nothing else in common). Cole Harden and More of That at 6 yrs were first time winners. Going back 23 races, first time winners were aged Solwhit (9), Thistlecrack, Anzum (8) in 1999, Balasani (8) in 1994. The other 19 first time out winners were aged 6 or 7.

    No 5 year old has ever won this race. French bred 5 yr olds such as Le Coudray, Cyborgo and Escartifigue went close and Smad Place was third in 2012. What would have happened if he had been allowed to lead? 5 of the 11 five year olds to run in the last 14 editions have been placed (and 4 of the last 6). None ran in the last three years. Footpad, Lets Dance, Apples Jade.

    Crimson Embers won as a 7 yr old and then in 1986 as the only 11 yr old to succeed . If I remember right he was also returning from an injury. Some present in 1985 say he was unlucky not to be awarded the race as a 10 yr old when allegedly the victim of 'slight' interference from stable mate/same owner and favourite Rose Ravine (see Youtube). There was no objection.

    HISTORY - Only Rose Ravine, Inglis Drever, Big Bucks (twice) and Thistlecrack have done the Cleeve Hurdle/Stayers double. Unowhatimeanharry from Cole Harden. Saphir De Rheu 2nd here after winning on Trials Day. Cole Harden when he won only fourth home in the January soft ground. 2013 At Fishers Cross (2nd in January, 3rd in March). Bacchanal and Inglis were 2nd in the Cleeve and Anzum unplaced in January before coming to win here. The Cleeve was only upgraded to 3 miles and Grade 2 status in '05. The last 9 winners of the Cleeve to run here have finished 2/3/1/1/0/2/1/4/1 in this race. In '07 Inglis was 2nd to Blazing Bailey in Cleeve before winning World Hurdle. In '10, Time for Rupert 2nd in Cleeve and 2nd here. Grand Crus in 2011 won the Cleeve and finished runner up in March. 2013 Reve De Sivola winner was 4th in March.

    Inglis Drever, Big Bucks and Thistlecrack only horses to have done the Long Distance Hurdle (Newbury Hennessey day)/World Hurdle double. Unowhatimeanharry Thistlecrack, Big Bucks and My Way De Solzen have both done the Long Walk/Stayers double although My Way's Long Walk was held at Chepstow. Unowhatimeanharry. (seems like a theme here)

    Big Bucks only ran one season in all of the Long Distance at Newbury, the Long Walk and the Cleeve winning them all by 5l, 8l and 7l respectively. Thistlecrack has won all three this season by 6l, 8l and 12l respectively. Unowhatimeanharry won all three by 6l, 4.5l and 1.75l respectively. (seems like a theme here)

    No horse has done the Haydock Trial/World Hurdle double. Baracouda did win both when the Rendlesham was held at Kempton. Zarkandar in a canny ride from Harry Cobden from Aux Ptit Soins.

    Faugheen, Katchit in 2008, Istabraq and Hardy Eustace are the only winners of Festival novice hurdles since 1984 to have returned to Cheltenham and won any hurdle race the following year. Nothing has come from the Albert Bartlett. Unowhatimeanharry

    No World Hurdle winner has ever ran in the Albert Bartlett Unowhatimeanharry

    22 of last 24 had shown 'good' if not winning previous course form (not Solwhit or My Way De Solzen, Long Walk Winner. Both SP under 9/1). More of That won the G2 Relkeel. Cole Harden 3rd of 7 in a Relkeel, 4th of 6 in the Cleeve. Good course form? Not sure.

    14 of last 16 had won at least a G2 Hurdle over less than 2m 5f. Not Cole Harden nor Thistlecrack. The latter went straight from 5th in the Imperial Cup Sandown h'cap to cruising home in the G1 Aintree 3 mile novice. Never looked back from there.

    IRISH TRAINED - Solwhit first Irish Trained winner since Dorans Pride ‘95. Also, Annie Power (11/8 fav 2nd), Voler La Vedette, Mourad, Powerstation (3rd in 2010 and 2009) joined Kazal, Rule Supreme, Limestone Lad (twice), Golden Cross, Bannow Bay and Le Coudray as all placed in the last 15 races. Solerina and Sallie's Girl were also 4th. In total 13 placed from 48 competitors over that time. Voler La Vedette and Powerstation in 2010 only ones who were not the shortest priced of the Irish runners. 3 last year best Alpha Des Obeaux in 2nd. Five tried in 2015, a disappointing bunch, best home was 8th. Vroom Vroom Mag, Lets Dance, Footpad, Shaneshill, Clondaw Warrior.

     

    All bar Solwhit of the last 5 Irish winners came from the Boyne Hurdle at Navan in mid February. Golden Cross was 2nd here. Sutton Place going to Aintree Solwhit won the 2m 4f Limestone Lad hurdle at Naas. Sutton Place.

    Mares with their 7 lbs allowance. 18 have tried in the past 21; 1 winner, 3 seconds, 2 thirds and three fourths. (Voler La Vedette 2nd under a great ride by Andrew Lynch in 2012, Annie Power 2nd 2014). None last year.

    29 from last 31 winners all 1st or 2nd in either of last two runs. Not Cole Harden. Everything since ’86 had finished in the first four last time out. All bar Cole of the last 14 winners were 1st or 2nd last time out. All bar Cole of the last 14 winners did not finish outside the first 2 in any hurdle run that season. More of That unbeaten throughout career before this.

    13 of the last 21 were second season hurdlers. 6 other versions were won by multiple winners after their first win. Solwhit the first exception to this all since Anzum '99. 'Harry is hurdling for the third season

    15 of last 16 had won that season (’04 Iris’s Gift – one run 2nd). Cole Harden won the Wetherby G2 on Charlie Hall day.

    Last 16 winners number of previous runs that season between 1 and 4. Cole had 4. The nine previous winners had no more than 3 runs.
     

    Cyborgo '96 and the great Baracouda '03, last two to have their prep run pre Christmas. Cyborgo hadn't been seen since the previous year's race.

     

    Solwhit's win in 2013 was his 20th race over hurdles, Big Bucks' fourth win was his 29th, Inglis's third win was his 21st over hurdles. Besides those, 14 of last 18 had between 6 and 17 runs over hurdles before this. Other exception was More Of That, only 4 previous runs. Big Bucks retired after 33 runs over hurdles.

      

    Rustle, Karshi, Trapper John, Inglis Drever all placed in previous years Neptune Novice Hurdle before winning this. Cole Harden had finished 7th. N/A in 2016 Unlikely that Yanworth and Itsafreebee to show up.
     

    More Of That (Haydock 2m 4f Fixed Brush), Big Bucks (first time) and My Way De Solzen ran in a handicap hurdle in the same season they won this.

    No headgear winners from 49 triers (Only At Fishers Cross last year, his third attempt. Four tried in 2015, Zarkandar 3rd).

    FORM RACES Cole Harden and My Way de Solzen only ones of the last 18 not to have been placed (at least) in a Grade I hurdle in the previous years Festival if given the chance (Solwhit injured in 2012 - no appearance). Doran’s Pride as well, but he fell at the last when disputing second in the Sun Alliance Novice Hurdle. Thistlecrack went to Aintree.

    Of the 25 different winners since ’83 only Cole Harden, Big Bucks, My Way, Doran’s, Balasani and Shuil Ar Aghaidh had been unable to gain a place at the previous Festival when given the opportunity to do so. The latter pair had been unplaced in one of the handicap hurdles. (Big Bucks unplaced in Jewson '08)

    The Relkeel was won by Camping Ground with Cole Harden well behind in 2015. Relkeel had been won in 2013 by More Of That. Agrapart (needs soft ground, says N Williams)

    Can't find a winner of this who finished unplaced in it the previous year. Alpha Des Obeaux chasing, Bobs Worth retired.

    PRICE Cole Harden biggest priced winner since 1999. More Of That 15/2 2014. There have been 7 favourites win in last 16. The previous three went 40/1, 16/1 and 20/1. In '09 first three home came from the first five in market, in the three years before that all the placed horses came from the first four in the market. 9 horses outside the first 4 in the betting have been placed since 2002. (Bobs Worth 33s, Celestial Halo 40s, Smad Place 9s, Powerstation did it twice. Not a remarkable stat).

    Cole Harden first frontrunner to be successful since Cyborgo in ’96. Limestone Lad placed in '03 giving his all behind the Fish (Baracouda - pet name. It was easier to shout Come On The Fish or Allez Thierry). Bog Warrior a gallant 5th in 2013. Fractured his near fore coming down the hill.

    TIMES: Fastest recent time was Bacchanal ‘00 in 5 mins 36 secs on good to firm followed by My Way De Solzen in 5.38. Cole Harden 5mins 41 the same time as Call The Cops in the Pertemps. Thistlecrack 5mins 43s, 6 secs faster than Mall Dini, an hour earlier Iris Gift did it in 5.49, the Fish in ’03 was 5.41. More Of That 5 mins 49s was again the same time as the earlier h'cap.

    Solwhit's 2013 World Hurdle win was timed at 6 minutes 25 secs on officially good to soft ground. This was a full 25 secs slower than Holywell's win in the earlier handicap hurdle and the latter carried only 6lbs less.

     

    Times for three 3 mile novice hurdles run on the next day: Black Jack Ketchum 5.38 (same time as that years Stayers) and Witchita Lineman in 5.43 which was three seconds faster than his elders. Very Wood 5.50 in 2014. Martello Tower 6 mins dead after overnight rain. Unowhatimeanharry 5 mins 48 secs. Novices carry 5 lb less.

     

    FORM OVER 3 MILES. Since 1989 there have been 21 different winners of this race. 7 of them were attempting 3 miles for the first time. They were More Of That, Solwhit, Inglis Drever, Bacchanal, Karshi, Princeful and Nomadic Way. Inglis actually came here from winning the Haydock Champion Hurdle Trial and then the Kingwell at Wincanton in 3m 47secs. He had been second to Fundamentalist in the Neptune Novice Hurdle the previous season. The New One. Up to 2013, only 4 of the previous 33 win and place had not won over 3 miles. Inglis was joined by Kazal and Crystal D'Ainay who were placed in Graded 3 milers before this and Smad Place 2011 on his first run over 3 miles. Kazal had won a Graded Race over 2m 6f in a Limerick bog. .

     

    None of More of That, Annie Power, Solwhit or Celestial Halo had previously tried 3 miles over hurdles. All placed horses in 2015 and 2016 had winning form over 3 miles. Agrapart, Lets Dance, Footpad Nichols canyon.

     

    Solwhit became the first ex champion hurdle contender to win since Nomadic Way in 1992. He had been 6th to Binocular in 2010. Since Nomadic Way, Zaynar, Ashkazar, Hardy Eustace and Oscar Whisky tried unsuccessfully. Celestial Halo ran with merit when 2nd to Solwhit. He had been 4th to Binocular and 2nd to Punjabi in Champion Hurdles. Nichols Canyon, Jezki. 

     

    NEXT RACE>

All Posts
×