• Unibet Champion Hurdle

    Headlines

     

    Four favourites have won in the last seven
    Hurricane Fly only winner this century not to have run at a previous Festival
    10 of the last 12 had already won a Grade 1
    Only 2 of the last 26 Kempton Christmas Hurdle winners have completed the double
    Since 1984 only 6 winners were unplaced in any completed run that season
    Only one of the last 11 had run more than 12 times over hurdles
     

    Summary

    Race Distance - 2 miles and abt half a furlong. Winner has been placed at least at a previous Festival or hasn't been there before. Aged between 6 and 9 years. Won last time out and over a trip not more than 2m 1f. Has won a Graded race this season, either on the flat or over jumps. Won’t have had last run in a handicap. Has not finished unplaced in any run this season. Was favourite or second favourite on previous run. Will have a total racing record of at least 10 runs with 6 wins or be unbeaten. Will have run no more than 12 times over hurldes. Has been out within the last 45 days. Bula/International double with this race is a collector's piece. Favourites on top recently. Has won a G1 or gone very very close. Not blinkered unless placed in previous Festival G1. Not beaten favourite last time out. Look out for last years Neptune form. Buveur D'Air to be placed at least as Fighting Fifth representative.  Winner needs a seasonal prep run. Horses have come back from novice chase careers to win this.

  • Evidence

    AGE - 5 yr olds first.

     

    2017, Footpad 4th, Sceau Royal 6th, 2016 4 ran best Top Notch in 5th. 2015 two outsiders outclassed, 2014 Our Conor 5s tragically killed, Petit Zig 6th at 28s. 2013 Countrywide Flame 3rd (16s) Balder Success (UR). Before Katchit, only Persian War, Night Nurse and See You Then won as 5 yr olds.

     

    To summarise, all 73 five yr olds since '85 were beaten, until 2008. Since then six of the 27 to try, have been placed. Apart from Binocular (2nd in Supreme) the other five finished in the first 4 in the previous year's Triumph (Defi Du Seuil). Since Detroit City '06, the winner of the Triumph has ran 7 times in the following year's Champion Hurdle finishing 1/2/3/5/3/F/Last. (Ivanovich Gorbatov failed in the County Hurdle)

     

    Katchit and Persian War '68 only two Triumph winners to win this the following year. See You Then was only second in the Triumph '84.
    Defi Du Seuil.

     

    Last years Triumph form - Not so good. Apples Jade, Footpad, Lets Dance, Sceau Royal, Who Dares Wins, Clan Des Obeaux and Frodon came from the 2016 vintage. From last year, Defi Du Seuil scraped home at 4/11 at G1 Aintree and the rest are not world beaters, so far. Mind you 2016 was as good a form Triumph as I can remember.

    Yorkhill, Faugheen, Katchit in 2008, Istabraq and Hardy Eustace are the only winners of Festival novice hurdles since 1984 to have returned to Cheltenham and won any hurdle race the following year, all in the Champion Hurdle. Penhill

      

    Since 1992, 8 novices competed in this. None of them were five year olds. Ex Flat runners Royal Gait, Alderbrook and Make A Stand all won, Rhinestone Cowboy was 3rd, Ashley Park and Self Defense 4th. (None ran in last nine years).

    OLDER HORSES - Hurricane Fly was the first since Rooster Booster winner ‘03 to win at aged 9 yrs. The New One and Faugheen are 10yrs old, My Tent Or Yours is 11yrs. One before that Royal Gait in 1992. In the last 176 renewals, four eight year olds and two nine years old have won. 3 of the 5 were returning to win it again. Only 4 winners older than 8 since 1951. To summarise, 11 of the last 12 aged between 6 and 9 years.

    Sea Pigeon '81, last 11 yr old to win Champion Hurdle. One before that was Hatton's Grace '51. Both also won it as 10yr olds.

     

    'He was what he was and hopefully he can come back to that, but age isn't on his side, so if isn't to be, it isn't to be.' W Mullins 26th Feb, talking about Faugheen

     

     

    REGAINING CROWN - Hurricane Fly and Comedy Of Errors in 1975 only ones to regain. The Fly won 22 Grade 1s, three in his final season beating the current champion on each occasion. Up with the greatest 2 mile hurdlers there have ever been, if not the best. Faugheen won the race 3 years ago.

     

    Since 1990 (and unlike the Gold Cup), 8 winners of this had been beaten in the previous year's renewal. My Tent Or Yours, Chi'tibello, Wicklow Brave,

    TRAINERS - Irish Trained 12 winners from the last 19. Fighting with the Supreme to be the best performing race in the Festival for Irish trained winners. Buveur D'Air, Rock On Ruby, Punjabi, Binocular, Katchit, Hors La Loi and Rooster Booster since ’97 have won for the home team. Before Hurricane Fly nothing Irish placed in years '08 - '10. No Red Mills Hurdle winner has doubled up since Hardy Eustace 2005. Faugheen, Wicklow Brave, Mick Jazz


    M/D Pipe - two winners and a two thirds from their 8 runners that started under 16/1 (‘08 Osana 2nd at 9/2, but stuffed in '09 at 13/2). Moon Racer PU last year Nothing good enough to compete in the previous six. No Northern trained winner for 35 years. N Henderson leads Peter Easterby six wins to five.

    Last years Champion Hurdle - Buveur D'Air skipped clear from My Tent Or Yours, second in consecutive years. In the last 18, 9 winners ran in the previous year's race. No winner was unplaced in last years race since Fakey Dove 1994 (hard to believe, but that mare ran 11 times flat and hurdles between Champion Hurdles). Buveur D'Air jogged home at Aintree over 2m 4f, Wicklow Brave stole it at Punchestown. 4 of the last 11 winners finished 3rd in previous year's race. Petit Mouchoir chasing this season.


    BETFAIR HURDLE/TOTE GOLD TROPHY - Make A Stand only winner in last 28 to have its last race before Cheltenham in a handicap. Make A Stand joins Persian '68 as the only winners of both in the same season. Persian War then won the second of his three Ch Hurdles in '69. Last Tote Gold Trophy winner to run in this 13 months later was '03 Copeland 25/1 allegedly 'every chance when fell 3 out' in Rooster's year. I must have been watching a different race. In '94 Flakey Dove finished 3rd at Newbury then won here. Ballyandy unplaced in last years Supreme. Kalashnikov goes to Supreme.

     

    INTERNATIONAL/BULA HURDLE - Rooster Booster ’03 first Bula/Champion Hurdle double since Comedy Of Errors ’74. Since 1987 18 winners of the 'Bula' have attempted the double. Apart from Rooster, Valiramix probably was going to win here before tragedy happened. 4 have finished 2nd (including three of the last five), one was third, one fell and the rest were unplaced (including The New One in 2014, unlucky). Rooster is the only one of the 18 who had won at the Festival in the previous year. My Tent or Yours bt The New One, the reverse of the 2016 result.
     

    Rooster Booster only horse to do County Hurdle then Champion Hurdle (2003). Rooster came here on the back of 4 wins including Bula. Arctic Fire was beaten in the County off 141 then finished second to Faugheen. Arctic Fire ret

     

    SUPREME NOVICES ‘17 - As with the Triumph, does not compare with the 2016 vintage. Melon the only one to progress to the seniors and all he has achieved do far is to jog around a G2 at Down Royal. Compare 2016. Altior, Min, Buveur D'Air 3rd. First 11 home have all won decent races. Some have said that even the ambulance has been placed since. Very much a rival to the vintage of 2013.
     

    NEPTUNE NOVICE HURDLE - Faugheen won the Neptune '14 by 4 1/2 lengths. In the last 20 years Hardy Eustace and Istabraq also doubled up. Danoli, French Holly, Peddlers Cross and The New One all placed in the Champion the year after winning Neptune. Rock On Ruby won the 2 mile championship the year after his sh hd defeat in the Neptune. It has become very obvious that the Neptune is a better guide than the Supreme to Champion Hurdle contenders. Nichols Canyon had been 3rd in each race. Not happening in 2018 Neon Wolf no longer with us. Willoughby Court chasing.

     

    Timed - In the fastest Champion Hurdle time of the last decade, 3 mins 45.1 secs, Annie Power in 2016 went round one second faster that Altior had done a little earlier in the Supreme. In contrast yhe 2017 Champion Hurdle was 6 seconds slower. In 2015 3 mins 47secs in goodish ground, Douvan's 2015 Supreme was 3 secs faster than Faugheen 2 hrs later in the Champion Hurdle. In 2014 Champagne Fever timed in 3 mins 46 secs in goodish ground, one second slower than Jezki. Novices carry 3lb less. Rock On Ruby's 3 mins 50 in 2012 Champion was 6 seconds faster than the Fly in 2013 and 2 seconds faster than the Fly in 2011. Jezki did 3 mins 45.25 second fastest of the last ten Champion Hurdles. (I wonder who presses the stopwatches) Faugheen 3.54 for 2016 Irish Champion, Fly 3.57 for same race in 2015.

     

    Fastest times this year. Mick Jazz 4mins 5 Ryanair Hurdle, the day Faugheen stopped. Faugheen 4 mins dead in Morgiana. Buveur D'Air

    3 mins 58 Kempton at Christmas, 4.10 Fighting Fifth jog. My Tent Or Yours 4 mins 8 for a soft ground Bula. Supasundae bt Faugheen in 4 mins 1sec in Irish Champion Hurdle.

     

    See Simon Rowlands view on sectional times link to ATR site

    http://cheltenham.attheraces.com/sectional-spotlight/sectional-spotlight-champion-hurdle

     

    Bula '71 only horse ever to do Supreme/Champion double in consecutive years. Browne's Gazette '85 should... (its ok, its ok, I hardly ever think of it now, but if you watch you tube, after losing 200 yds at the start, the crook had him in second coming round the corner before fading). Labaik injured. Hors La Loi and Brave Inca did win both but not in consecutive years. Since '84, only 10 have tried and only the Gazette, Like A Butterfly and Go Native (all unplaced) came to the Champion Hurdle on the back of a G1 success. Not happening this year or in the last three.

     

     

    Only Hardy Eustace and Granville Again have won a Champion Hurdle after losing their last three starts (My Tent Or Yours)

    Best form races Irish Champion (Brave Inca, Hardy Eustace Istabraq and Theatreworld, Hurricane Fly) (2017 Petit Mouchoir bt Footpad in 3mins 41 secs, best course time of the day, finished third and fourth at Cheltenham). Supasundae bt Faugheen

     


    Faugheen joined Kribensis ’90 of the last 25 Kempton Xmas Hurdle winners to come to complete the Champion double. Buveur D'Air

    Up to the introduction of the WBX Million Bonus in '08 it was true to say that anything involved in the Fighting Fifth/Kempton Hurdles had little chance here. Even though the bonus no longer exists the Fighting Fifth now does tend to attract a stronger line up. Buveur D'Air cantered home. In 8 of the last 9 years something at least was placed in the Champion which featured at Newcastle. Petit Mochoir fell last year at Newcastle when in contention. 3 winners, 5 seconds and a third. 2015 Arctic Fire 3rd at Newcastle, 2nd here. My Tent or Yours 2nd 2014, Countrywide Flame 3rd 2013, Overturn 2nd 2012, Peddlers Cross 2nd all after winning the Fighting Fifth. Punjabi only one to do the double. Binocular and Katchit both won Champion Hurdles after being beaten at Newcastle. In 2016 both Identity Thief and Top Notch unplaced in Ch Hurdle.

     

    No horse has won this without having a prep run that season.

     

    Buveur D'Air, Beech Road 1989 and Morley Road 1991 gave up novice chase careers that season to return to hurdles and win this. All three trial hurdles between novice chase career and Champion Hurdle. Buveur D'Air has won Contenders at Sandown past two seasons.


    All bar Faugheen and Rock On Ruby of the last 21 winners seen out since the Saturday before AIG Irish Champion Hurdle (26th January - 44 days). All bar those two of the last 23 and 30 from last 34 winners all ran since Jan 1. Faugheen and Rock On Ruby first since Granville Again to come straight from the Christmas Hurdle. Even in 2014 N Henderson brought out My Tent Or Yours to win a February jumpers bumper at Kempton to 'get the freshness off him'. Nicky may know his stats but Willie doesn't seem to care for them.
     

    Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton has a reasonable record if not recently. Kribensis '90, Alderbrook '95 won both and Punjabi was third in '09 before Cheltenham. Of the last 15 winners of the Kingwell, 11 went onto the Champion Hurdle. Hors la Loi '02 and Katchit both won, 3 others were placed. Yanworth unpl 2017. Elgin. No Kingwell runner up in the last 16 years has gone on to win at Cheltenham that year. Ch'tibello

    20 of last 28 previous course winners. Not Buveur D'Air nor Jezki (both 3rd in Supreme), Rock On Ruby (2nd in Neptune), not Binocular (had been 2nd in Supreme Novice and Ch Hurdle), Punjabi (had been 3rd in '08 Champion), Sublimity (4th in a Supreme Novice), Make A Stand (had been beaten in a h'cap). Both Royal Gait and Alderbrook were novices and had never been here before but were both Group 2 Flat winners. Hurricane Fly also not been here before his first win. Came here on the back of beating Solwhit in 4 successive G1s. Those sired by Montjeu wouldn't get up the hill, they said.

     

    No Cheltenham Champion Bumper winner has ever been placed in a Champion Hurdle. Not relevant this year either.
      
    17 of last 19 were placed at a previous Festival. 11 from last 20 were previous Festival winners. (Faugheen, Fly, Istabraq three times, Hardy Eustace twice, Rooster Booster, Brave Inca, Hors La Loi and Katchit. Not Annie Power although she would have gone close in the 2015 Mares).

    28 of last 34 won on most recent start, exceptions being Celtic Shot ’88, 2nd in an Agfa Hurdle, Granville Again ’93, 3rd in a Christmas Hurdle, Hardy Eustace ‘04 2nd in a Red Mills, Punjabi 3rd in a Kingwell, Rock On Ruby 2nd in Xmas Hurdle, Jezki last in the 2014 AIG. All the wins were over 2m or 2m1f.

    26 from last 29 were favourite or second favourite on last run.

     

    Only Rock On Ruby and Sublimity of the past 12 had yet to win a Grade 1.

    All bar Buveur D'Air, Annie Power, Faugheen, Jezki, Rock On Ruby and Hardy Eustace of the last 20 winners had run at least 18 times (Flat and Jumps combined) and had won at least 6 times (includes Sublimity). Buveur D'Air 15 runs, 12 wins. Annie Powr was 15 runs, 13 wins, Faugheen was unbeaten over 9 races, Jezki was 14 and 9, Rock On was 10 and 6, Hardy was 15 and 5 in ‘04. Hurricane Fly was 21 and 11 in 2011, Binocular was 18 and 11 in 2010. Against all that, only Hurricane Fly of the last 11 had run more than 12 times over hurdles.

    17 from last 21 (not Buveur D'Air (6), Faugheen (7), Rock On Ruby or Sublimity) had run between 9 and 25 times over hurdles.

    17 of last 21 had previously won a Grade I hurdle. Rock On Ruby short head 2nd in a Neptune. Rooster Booster came here from winning the Bula G2, Make A Stand from the G3 Tote Gold Trophy. Kalashnikov. 16 from the last 21 had won a Grade I or 2 Hurdle that season. Annie won a G1 at the Punchestown Festival. Sublimity broke both these stats but was a listed Flat winner. Buveur D'Air only won a Contenders Listed Hurdle at Sandown.

    Since 1984 only 6 winners were unplaced in any completed run that season. ( Jezki most recent, Binocular 5th in a Fighting Fifth ). Only Jezki, Punjabi and Binocular of last 14 unplaced in any of previous 2 runs (latter two in Kempton Xmas Hurdle, Punjabi fell when challenging).
     

    Faugheen only winner since at least 1993 started his racing career in a 4 yr old Irish p2p. To be fair can't think of any other runners from that route.


    HEADGEAR - Blinkered runners in last 13 races - 3 wins (Hardy Eustace, great rides from C O'Dwyer, Jezki never in blinkers but straight to first time hood) and 6 placed from 39. My Tent always wears a hood. Rock On Ruby won without blinkers but wore them for the first time when second to the Fly in 2013.

    Record of previous years winner P11PR21324693244. Annie Power unfortunately out. Hardy Eustace 2005 last to win two in a row.

     

    Punjabi in 2009 only winner this century having been beaten favourite last time out. Only Wicklow Brave qualified last year, unplaced.

    BREEDING - 4 mares have won this in 90 years, Annie Power first since Flakey Dove '94, Dawn Run '84. Not many run. Verdana Blue

    PRICE - 21 of last 25 winners found in first five in the market. Not Sublimity, Hardy Eustace ‘04, Punjabi or Binocular. You would expect that. Four favourites have won in the last seven.

     

     

     

     

     

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Wealth Warning.  Any decisions made (or not) or the basis of any information in this site are the sole responsibility of the reader.  There is no obligation on me to follow my own advice (Gary).  I take no responsibility for (but am keen to hear of) any factual errors.  Previous years ‘stats on stats’ would suggest we may identify a decent priced winner from manageable groups every three or four races.  I tend to improve as a tipster as the week goes on, possibly too worried on the Tuesday.  It is believed that Savello (2014 Grand Annual) took from Golden Chieftain (2013 3m hcap chase) the record for breaking the most stats in a race.  Stands now at 8.  Cole Harden equalised with 8 in the 2015 World Hurdle.  Remember, after you have cursed/laughed at me and given up totally on trends, they will come back to bite.  Always happens.  Usually on Gold Cup Day

Beware GO SEA - Groundless Optimism Syndrome Encouraged by Alcohol.  A Cotswold condition very common at this time of year.