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Wealth Warning. Any decisions made (or not) or the basis of any information in this site are the sole responsibility of the reader. There is no obligation on me to follow my own advice (Gary). The Stats Proverb says 'Relevance Is In The Eye Of The Beholder.' I take no responsibility for (but am keen to hear of) any factual errors. Previous years ‘stats on stats’ would suggest we may identify a decent priced winner from manageable groups every three or four races. I tend to improve as a tipster as the week goes on, possibly too concerned on the Tuesday. It is believed that Savello (2014 Grand Annual) took from Golden Chieftain (2013 3m hcap chase) the record for breaking the most stats in a race. Stands now at 8. Cole Harden equalised with 8 in the 2015 World Hurdle. Remember, after you have cursed/laughed at me and given up totally on trends, they will come back to bite. Always happens. Usually on Gold Cup Day

Beware GO SEA - Groundless Optimism Syndrome Encouraged by Alcohol. A Cotswold condition very common at this time of year.

  • Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate Handicap Steeple Chase

    HEADLINES

     

    All the last six winners had no placed chase course form

    Five of the last six winners and the 2016 runner up had all been well beaten in a New Course chase no later than the previous year's Festival.

    Only Empire Of Dirt from the last eight had won a Graded race

    D Pipe has won three of the past seven

    17 from the past 18 had run between 3 and 16 times over fences

    18 from the past 20 carried no more than 10st 11lbs

    Salut Flo only favourite to win this century

    19 from the last 20 previous successful at trips between 2m 3f and 2m 5f

     

     

    Summary

    (Calling it 'The Mildmay' is usually easier. In 2015 the race distance returned to 2m and abt 5f after one year at 2m 4f.)

    Not carrying over 10st 11lb unless previous placed Festival form. Rated between 130 and 145. Winner not older than 10. Older horses do get placed. If backing a 10 yr old or older prefer one with placed course form. Winner will have won at Class 3 level and at a distance between 2m3f and 2m5f. Will either have competed in a previous festival race or will have less than 12 chase runs.
    Has run between 3 and 16 times over fences. If out at all, will have run between 3 and 8 times this season or be Pipe trained. Could have finished anywhere last time out. May not have been seen on course since November. Did not gain a place in this season’s on course 2m 5f Graded Handicap Chases. Any price. Novice, Irish trained and a French Bred to gain place. Watch for French Bred 6 yr olds. Not blinkered. Conditional jockeys do win this. Seriously consider D Pipe and Venetia Williams. Not P Nicholls. May not have won this season. Wasn't beaten favourite last time. Sorry, did I mention watch for Pipe trained especially when 12/1 or shorter? Winner likely to have been given a 'sighter' in a course chase no later than last year's Festival and has no course win or placed form .

  • Evidence

    WEIGHT Mister McGoldrick '08 11st 7 and Non So ’06 11st 3 are the only ones since Elfast '94 to carry over 11st to victory. Apart from Half Free (3 time Festival winner) and dual winners Elfast and The Tsarevich, no other winner since ’77 has carried more than 11st to victory. (2016 Empire Of Dirt 10st 11, 2nd and 3rd carried over 11st. 7 qualifiers. 2015 10 carried over 11st, Buywise best in 3rd. 2014 3 carried over 11st, Colour Squadron 2nd and Johns Spirit 4th. 2013 8 over 11st best Hunt Ball in 4th, 2012 5 over 11st best Divers in 4th, '11, 8 over 11st, best Consigliere in 4th) The Ryanair seems to take the best 155+ rated horses though placed horses can carry big weights.

     

    18 from last 20 carried no more than 10st 11lbs including Empire, 1-2 in 2015 and the 1-3 in both of the previous two years and the 1-2-3 in each of the three years before that. All last 15 rated between 128 and 147. - Empire 142, Darna and Ballynagour both at 140 Carrickboy 136, Salut Flo 137, Holmwood Legend 130, Great Endeavour - 135, Something Wells - 139. (27 from last 29 not rated above 142). Last year ratings went from 157 to 135 with 10st 4 the bottom weight before claims. Ratings in 2015 ranged from 155 to 137. Bottom weight carried 10st 9 before jockeys claims.

    4 of last 26 winners out of handicap. Last one Tikram 3lb 'wrong' in '04. '09 Ping Pong Sivola 1lb 'wrong', favourite and 2nd. 2012 two out of the handicap and unplaced.

    Seven of the last 17 runners carrying a penalty have been placed. None ran last year. Shangani unpl 2014. 2012 Niceonefrankie unpl, '11 Holmwood only qualifier and won, '09 sole qualifier Pop was 'going ok when fell 4 out’.

     

    PRICE - Salut Flo at 9/2 first favourite since Majadou '99 and then before that Political Pop '81. Besides Salut Flo the last 14 winners ranged between 12/1 and 66/1. Last 4 winners returned at (a sweet) 16s, 33s (Darna Pricewise paper tip at 40s), 12s and Carrickboy at 50s (This race has probably the current worst record for favs in Festival). 15 of last sixteen 12/1 or bigger.

    TRIP - 19 from last 20 previously been successful over trips between 2m3f and 2m5f (plus Non So who may have been, if he hadn’t fallen two out in one such chase).

    AGED 10 AND ABOVE - Holmwood Legend was 10 yrs old, Mr McGoldrick 11 when he won (at tote price £147/1) Young Spartacus 10ys old in '03 . Apart from them, in last 14 years only eight others paid a place dividend (2014 Tatenen 3rd at 33s, 2013 Tartak 4th, both 10 yr olds, '10 Mr McGoldrick (13 yrs old) 33/1 4th, In 2008 Fundamentalist, a 10 yr old, was third @28s to Mr McGoldrick, an 11yr old @66s). 11 ran last year and 7 in 2015, best placing in both was 6th.

    As stated, in the last 14 renewals there have been 11 placed aged 10 and above including the 3 winners. All bar Holmwood had previous placed course form. These 11 came from a total of 34 horses aged 10 and above running with previous course placed form. (Tatenen was a G2 Chase course winner). Prices of the 11 ranged from 14s to 66s. Worth considering however if they are aged 10+ and running in this, it is likely that a few of them have been round here before.

     

    RETURNERS can run well in this race. Two dual winners, Elfast and The Tsarevich. Mr McGoldrick, Dublin Flyer, Smartie Express, King of the Lot and Fondmort were placed on more than one occasion. Palarshan 2nd '07 finished 5th '08. In 2012 Divers finished 4th in this a year after winning the novice handicap chase on the Tuesday. Tartak finished 5th and 3rd in 2012 and 2013, the first time as top weight, 2013 he was bottom weight. Didn't happen in 2016. Empire Of Dirt, Tango De Juilley, Kings Palace, Full Shift

     

    I like this. Apart from Empire, the previous five winners of this and Tango De Juilley 2nd at 33s had no course win or placed form and all had actually been well beaten in a previous course chase. Four of those five had been given a course 'sighter' in the season they won. Carrickboy 6th in the novice hcap chase the previous year. All 5 had previous experience of the New Course. Only Tango and Dare Me unpl passed this stat last year.

    Every winner this century bar Empire of Dirt and Great Endeavour (a novice with only 3 runs) had contested a race at the track. Only Young Spartacus this century had previously won a course chase.

    19 from last 25 had competed at a previous Festival (the other 6 had less than 12 chase runs, Empire 11). 4 had run in the County. Ballynagour 8th to Carrickboy in 2013, Carrickboy 6th in a Poultney, Great Endeavour unpl in '09 Coral Cup. Something Wells 'disputing 4th when fell in '08 Jewson. Mister McGoldrick placed in '06 Queen Mother. Half of the winners this century were in their 3rd season chasing.

     

    All last 20 had won at Class 3 level or higher. But only Empire of Dirt of the last 8 had won a Graded Race (the £60k Leopardstown Chase)

     

    TRAINERS

    M/D.Pipe. Seven winners in last 18. Pretty good. M Pipe won four in five years between '97 and '02 with four different horses and four different jockeys. (Names please? Answers at foot of page) D. Pipe has now won three in seven years with Kings Palace 3rd at 11s last year and Monetaire 11/2 fav second in 2015 after a tardy start. 5 unplaced years before Great Endeavour winner 2010. 2011 Consigliere 4th, Matuhi 6th. 2013 4 runners all unpl including Ballynagour 7/2 fav. That year Matuhi suffered a fatal fall at the last when in 3rd. Ballynagour won in 2014. Out of a total of 16 runners in David's seven years. The three winners were returned 8/1, 9/2f and 12/1. According to the Racing Post race reports they all shortened in price in the run up to the race. Imagine that. During the seven years the only other 2 horses running at single figure prices were Ballynagour 7/2 fav unpl and Notus de la Tour 8/1 fell at the third fence in Salut Flo's year.

    N Henderson Two winners, a third and a fourth in the last ten. (2016 Full Shift 4th, nothing placed in the previous six years). P Nicholls has never won this (and is well aware of the fact if you read his column). 2016 three tried including Stilletto 11/2 jfav F, and Art Mauresque PU at 11s. Caid Du Berlais 11/1 unpl 2015.
    Poquelin PU 2013. Crack Away Jack pu in 2012 went off at 13/2. Gwanako 2nd '08 and 5th '10.

     

    V Williams 3 winners and two seconds in the last ten. Usually not the obvious one. Tango 2nd at 33s last year. Idole First winner at 12s, Carrickboy 50s, Something Wells was 33s

     

    IRISH TRAINED - Empire Of Dirt became the second Irish Trained winner of this in 60 races after Doubleuagain in 1982. Take a bow, Colm Murphy. 3 others tried last year, best of the rest Ballycasey in 5th. In the previous 22, 2015 Rawnaq 3rd at 25s from 4 runners, 2012 Glam Gerry 3rd from 2 runners @33s, 2011 Beautiful Sound 3rd, only entry and fav, '10 Notable D'Estruval 3rd. Cregg House ‘03 and Its Time For A Win '02 were placed. Sraid Padraig Unpl 2014. Punch well above numbers.   

     

    Novices - 5 winners, two seconds, two thirds and a fourth in past 21 races. 4th last year from 2 runners. 2015 3rd and 5th from 4 runners. Nothing placed previous two years. 2012 Pipe trained Notus de La Tour only novice 8/1 fell at the 3rd. None placed 2011, 1st and 2nd 2010 from 5 qualifiers, ’04 Tikram. Last 4 novices to win this all had at least placed course form. Also Ping Pong Sivola, 2nd as a novice in '09 also had winning course form. Last two novice winners rated 133 and 135. Would have had difficulty getting a run in the past two renewals.

     

    17 from last 18 winners ran between 3 and 16 times over fences. Empire 11, Darna 9, Ballynagour 8 runs, Carrickboy 16 runs. Mister McGoldrick (152/1 tote, I know a boy that day who didn't think it was big enough) previously third in a QM had 33 previous chases before winning this.

     

    JOCKEYS - 7 of the last 27 winners ridden by conditional jockeys including 2009, '10, '11. Jack Kennedy (3) only placed one in the last three.

    THAT SEASON 27 of last 32 winners all between 3 and 8 previous runs that season. (Not Ballynagour, one run, Salut Flo, one run, Holmwood - seven)

    22 of last 33 first or second in either of last two runs (not in '07, '08, '10, '12 '14 or 2015). Not a helpful fact in the search for a form selection.

    Only 22 of last 31 had won in the same season.

    18 of last 25 had not finished worse than 4th last time. (’02 Blowing Wind 5th, ’03 Young Spartacus not been out that season, Mister McG had been 5th, Salut Flo 12th in G3 course Handicap chase, Carrickboy and Ballynagour both PU, Darna 7th in 2m4f h'cap on Cheltenham Trials Day. Had a breathing op since that).

    Darna, Salut Flo, Idole First, Liberthine and Sacre D’or only winners since ’83 to have run in the Graded December or January 2m 4f Handicaps at Cheltenham that season. Ballynagour first winner to have run in the Paddy Power since Half Free '84. None of the last 11 were placed in any of the big Cheltenham 2m 5hcaps that season. The 2m 4f handicap chase at Kempton in mid January has produced 3 of the last 14. (Foxtail Hill from Rothman)
     

    Last five winners hadn't been seen for at least 42 days. Hidden?

     

    BREEDING French breds have won 7 of the last 15 and finished placed in 7 others (Tango and Full Shift last year from 6 runners, Monetaire 2015, none placed 2014, 10 ran in 2013, finished 2nd and 3rd. 6 in 2012 finished 1st and 4th, 1 - 2 - 3 in '09 from 12 runners). Three of the four winners aged less than 7 were French breds. (exception Great Endeavour).

     

    BLINKERS CHEEKPIECES ETC - No winners in 14 from 47 triers. ten in total last two years, all unplaced. Two in 2014 wore first time headgear, both unpl.
     

    This century 27 beaten favourites last time ran. No winners. Kings Palace and Full Shift BFs last time.



    23 runners in 2016 and only BET365, Betfred, Betway and Skybet paid 5 places

     

     

    Terao, T Murphy. Majadou, AP. Dark Stranger, R Johnson. Blowing Wind, Ruby (what a ride)

     

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