• Glenfarclas Cross Country Steeple Chase 3m abt 7f



    Last 12 had all won over at least 3 miles

    Nine from the last 11 were aged no older than 10 yrs.

    No winners younger than 8 years

    10 from the last 11winners of the December Course Conditions race came from the market front two

    Only Any Currency of all the March winners had run in more than 6 cross country races

    Paul Nicholls and Willie Mullins have never won this

    On the day itself, Enda Bolger has not won any of the last 7


    Race Distance - 3 miles 6 furlongs. (My friends continue to look down their noses at this. 'I've never had a bet on that nonsense' is the usual quote. Well, I need money to bet. This 'steeplechasing in its purist form' (not my words, those of Davy Russell) has provided me with a steady little stream of income over the years. Even last year when Josies Orders was backed ew at 10s in November. Not sure what to do about the stats since the disqualification of Any Currency. We will go on the official result. The same horses do tend to be involved each time.)


    Winner to be trained in Ireland. English trained horse to be placed. Will have raced over the Cheltenham C & D this season on ran in the PP Hogan Punchestown. Aged 8, 9 or 10 yrs of age. Has been placed at least over these obstacles at either Cheltenham or Punchestown. Has won over at least 3m. Unlikely to be ridden by a claimer. No headgear. Favourite due to win on the day. Enda Bolger might be nervous and would like to win it. Has not ran in more than 6 Cross Country races. Still best to avoid beaten favourites last time.


    From 2016 this is now a Conditions Race and not a Handicap. Bear that in mind though course experience and not weight has tended to be more important. The 16 still turned up last year as usual and yes, no bookie went 4 places

  • Evidence

    First ran in 2005.


    In 2016 Any Currency a 13 yr old held on from Josies Orders and Bless The Wings. Nina got a wee bit behind and Josies came with a late flourish (for want of a better word). Any Currency started running in these X Country races in March 2013 and had been close before in ?this one. Disqualified later in 2016 for a drugs irregularity. Not sure anyone really cared, not even JP? Do these people not realise how difficult it makes it for stats? Mssrs Keighley and Coleman could do with the Festival winner.

    In 2015 Davy Russell won this on Rivage D'Or at 16s for Tony Martin and Gigginstown. A 10 yr old who had been pulled up in a point to point on his last run and had never raced over these type of fences before. He had schooled a lot with Paul Carberry, they said. Sure, that was easy to find. Well, it was Davy's 5th consecutive winning Festival ride, his confidence must have been high and he has happy memories of this race. His first Festival winner was in 2006 on Native Jack trained by PJ Rothwell. Rivage D'Or got 15lbs from Any Currency in 2nd and 13lbs from Uncle Junior (14 yrs young) in 3rd, Dogora (levels) 4th. However there was carnage at the second last fence where Quantitiveeasing was carried out by Toutancarmont. The Q horse (8/1) with Nina on board was going very easy at the time. All those mentioned bar Rivage had oodles of experience at these types of obstacles.


    Balthazar King 2012 and 2014 the only English trained winner in the 12 runnings. 1-2 for English trained 2014 with Keighley trained Any Currency and Duke of Lucca in 4th. Wedger Pardy 2012, Le Duc and Lacdoudal (two more Hobbs trained) are the only other English trained horses to be placed in the last nine runnings (7 from 16 English trained last year, 6 from 16 2014, 5 from 16 in 2013, best finisher 9th). Ireland have supplied 35 of the 46 win and place returns including the other 10 winners. '11 Maljimar best of the English in fourth when favourite, '10 Lacdoudal only English trained finisher in first 7 home.


    3 winners of P P Hogan Memorial Cross Country Chase at Punchestown early February won this '06 to '08, In 2017 Auvergnat beat Usuel Smurfer and Ballybroker Bridge. 2016 Ballybroker Bridge beat Cantlow (11/10 fav). Finished 4th in this, Cantlow finished 2nd last. 2015 PP Hogan Ballybroker Bridge 25s beat Owens Pride 66s, Federici 3rd at 3/1, Quantitiveeasing 8/11 only 4th). In 2013 and 2014 Big Shu finished 2nd in the P P Hogan races before winning this in 2013 and 3rd in 2014 to Balthazar King. L'Ami 2nd here in '09, '10 Another Jewel finished third.


    Officially, Enda Bolger has trained 5 out of the 11 winners with four seconds, three thirds and two fourths. (Josies and the Q horse last year. 2015 only runner was Quantitiveeasing unlucky, 4 unplaced runners in 2014, 2013 Arabella Boy 7th at 9/4, Garde Champetre broke down 2012). Spotthedifference finished 4th in this in '06 at the age of 14 carrying 11st 12lb. Without the disqualification Enda has not won any of the last seven and was O from 20. The December Conditions race this season was won by Cantlow from Bless The Wings. Cantlow was mugged in the Trials day h'cap by a fine ride on Urgent de Gregaine by Felix de Giles.

    Big Shu, Balthazar King, Le Duc, Freneys Well and Josies Orders at 8 yrs were the youngest to win/place. Ages of the first five home in 2015 were 10, 12, 14, 6 and 12 respectively. All win and placed 2014 at least 9 yrs of age. In the first running in 2005 7 of the 16 runners were aged in single figures. 2016 it was 8 from 16. No real difference. Apart from the Shu and the Balt, all winners aged between 9 and 12 years of age. Only two winners older than 10 in last 11. Any Currency. In the 2013/14 season's December C & D handicap Pasquini Rouge, a French trained 5 yr old, was placed.


    Paul Nicholls has only ever won two of these types of races. No winners from 16 runners in this. Sire Collonges. Willie Mullins is 0 from 10 here.


    Urgent de Gregaine, Rivage D'Or and Uncle Junior in November '11 became the only horses in 38 races to win first time over these type of fences. Wonderkid, Dec '07, Sire Collonges and Josies Orders only 7 yr olds to win one of these types of races at Cheltenham. Dogora is the only horse under 8 yrs of age to be placed in this and he was only six last year.


    All had won over at least 2m 6f. Last 12 had all won over at least 3m.


    9 of the 12 winners had raced over the Cheltenham course and distance in the same season. Rivage D'Or unpl Pertemps Final 2011, Big Shu never been here before. Along with Native Jack, the latter's only racecourse run that season came from the PP Hogan.


    RATINGS (won't matter now - all level weights) Balthazar King and Garde Champetre won off 150. The other 8 winners were rated between 126 and 143. 11st 12lbs carried to win three times with the Balt, Spot and Garde Champetre. Rivage D'or 134. Big Shu carried 10st 5lb, rating 136. Spot won the first one in '05 off top weight rating 143, Uncle Junior top rated 2013 off 157, 14lbs higher.

    8 out of 12 had won a cross country chase at either Cheltenham or Punchestown. A New Story and Sizing Australia had been previously placed at Cheltenham over these obstacles. Balthazar King (first time) had only ran once over the course, carried out when in contention. Was a previous dual course chase winner over the park fences both successes being over at least 24 furlongs. And Rivage d'Or.

    No winner of this had run more than 6 times in Cross Country races. Josies Orders (5). Any Currency probably 15


    PRICE - the front three in the market have won 18 of the last 21 races over this course and 9 of the 12 runnings of this race. You might expect betting stats like that. Big Shu 14s SP and 20s in running. A 100/1 shot has been placed. No winning fav paid out on the day since Heads In The Ground 2007.


    This century 17 horses who were the beaten favourite last time out have competed. Only Any Currency at 11/1 was successful.


    JOCKEYS - R Johnson has now won this twice. Nina Carberry has now won 4 times for Enda. Adrian Heskin on A New Story 40s 2010 is the only claimer to have won this. Josh Halley (7) 3rd 2013 on Outlaw Pete for Mr McManus. 2 claimers unpl 2015. May not be allowed to claim anymore since is now a conditions race.



    BLINKERS CHEEKPIECES etc - Any Currency always wears cheekpieces but Josies does not Therefore officially nNo winners from 36 triers. 8 in each of the last two years (no first timers) best finished officially 2nd and 3rd each year, 5 in 2014 wore different types of headgear producing 2nd and 4th. Shakervilz cheekpieces and 2nd in 2013.


    Hills and Ppower only went 1/5 odds three places. Nonsense.




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Wealth Warning. Any decisions made (or not) or the basis of any information in this site are the sole responsibility of the reader. There is no obligation on me to follow my own advice (Gary). The Stats Proverb says 'Relevance Is In The Eye Of The Beholder.' I take no responsibility for (but am keen to hear of) any factual errors. Previous years ‘stats on stats’ would suggest we may identify a decent priced winner from manageable groups every three or four races. I tend to improve as a tipster as the week goes on, possibly too concerned on the Tuesday. It is believed that Savello (2014 Grand Annual) took from Golden Chieftain (2013 3m hcap chase) the record for breaking the most stats in a race. Stands now at 8. Cole Harden equalised with 8 in the 2015 World Hurdle. Remember, after you have cursed/laughed at me and given up totally on trends, they will come back to bite. Always happens. Usually on Gold Cup Day

Beware GO SEA - Groundless Optimism Syndrome Encouraged by Alcohol. A Cotswold condition very common at this time of year.