• OLBG Mares' Hurdle

     

    HEADLINES

    Apart from Quevega , winners Vroum Vroum Mag, Apples Jade and Glens Melody were also placed in different years.

    28 out of the last 30 win and placed had won over at least 2 and 1/2 miles

    No winner of this began their career on the Flat in GB or Ireland

    Vroom Vroom Mag and Quevega '10-'14 had at least 6lb in hand on handicap ratings

    Willie Mullins has trained nine of the last 10 winners.

    No headgear wearers placed in the last 10.

     

    Summary

     

    Race Distance - 2 miles and abt 4 furlongs. Stats on this would still feel a little bit silly. A page that hasn't taken much updating over the years. Quevega won it a lot, Annie Power would have hacked home, Vroum Vroum Mag had a leisurely stretch in 2016 and last year Apples Jade beat off Vroum Vroum and Limini. In 2018 Apples Jade surprisingly turned over by Benie Des Dieux. Winner and all placed horses previously won over at least 2 and a half miles. OLBG means On Line Betting Guide. Irish trained get placed as well. Winner not wearing headgear. Didn't start career on Flat. Due something outside front three in the betting.
     
     
  • Evidence

    First run 2008. Upgraded to G1 in 2015.

     

    Apart from Whiteoak 2008, L'Unique 2014 and Legacy Gold 2016 all the other 30 win and placed had previously won over at least 2 and 1/2 miles. Whiteoak had been winner last time out and had placed form in a G2 Novice hurdle. L'Unique had won a 4yr G1 at Aintree.

     

    Whiteoak, a 5 yr old, held on to win the inaugural running when Refinement pulled herself up in the final furlong.

     

    Quevega hacked home 6 times between 2009 and 2014, her final win achieved as a 10 yr old. A fantastic training performance. 'In command' was the phrase used about her in RP race notes 2014 and exactly the same phrase used about the racing position of Annie Power before her misfortune in 2015. 'In command' would describe Quevega's relationship with this race. In '09 she had won last time out, '10 she won by 4l after returning from injury. In 2011, on her first run for 327 days, she wins by 10l and more checks should have been carried out to prove that she hadn't joined in at halfway. In 2012 it was only 313 days off so the rest of them decided to jog for over 2 miles and sprint up the hill. She wins by 4 lengths. 'Readily' was an understatement. I did suggest in 2013 that 'Maybe they should tie her back legs together and start her pointing in the opposite direction'. Well, she got hampered, shuffled back and nearly fell on the flat at the top of the hill. She touched 4s with Betfair, and still won, 'going away'. Finished like Nijinsky (relatively) over the final 3 furlongs. In 2014 it looked for a second that Glens Melody might have got away from her as they came round the corner. Just for a second.

     

     

    They all carry 11st 5lb. Ratings 2018 Benie Des Dieux 147, Midnight Tour 145, Apples Jade 158. 2017 Apples Jade 153, Vroum Vroum Mag and Limini both 154. Next best 144. Vroum Vroum rated 154 in 2016. Next two top rated Bitofapuzzle 148 and Desert Queen 147 both flopped. To be fair to the performance of Annie Power in 2015 she was rated 162, Polly Peachum only 7lb behind on 155 and Glens Melody 150. In 2014 2nd top rated to Quevega was 22lbs lower.

     

    Irish trained - 10 wins, four runners up, six thirds and a fourth.

     

    PRICE - Benie Des Dieux second fav at 9/2, Apples Jade won as third favourite at 7/2. Going backwards from 2016, the three Mullins hotpots had the SPs of 4/6, 1/2, 8/11 (twice) 4/7, 5/6, 6/4 and 2/1. All favourites. Quevega and Apples Jade won this as a five year olds, Benie Des Dieux was a seven year old.

     

    Apples Jade was the first four year old ever to win a Hattons Grace. Has now won three of them

     

    No winner outside front three in the betting since Whiteoak '08

     

    The OLBG Mares Hurdle at Ascot registered as the Warfield is a fair trial. Three runners in it finished second to Quevega. United and Sparky May won at Ascot before finishing second here. Both Kentford Grey Lady 2012 and Refinement 2008 finished second in both races in the same season. Ran over soft ground in 2017, Le Bague Au Roi won easy at Ascot but disappointed here. Magic Of Light bt Jester Jet.

     

    No winner began their career on the Flat in GB or Ireland.

     

    Apart from Quevega no other horse had finished in the first three more than once until Glens Melody in 2015. Second favourite has finished placed 4 times in the ten races.

     

    Headgear winners are 0 from 24. None placed.

     

     

     

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Wealth Warning.  Any decisions made (or not) or the basis of any information in this site are the sole responsibility of the reader.  There is no obligation on me to follow my own advice.  I take no responsibility for (but am keen to hear of) any factual errors.  (Bgault01@gmail.com, @gaultstats). Previous years ‘stats on stats’ would suggest we may identify a decent priced winner from manageable groups every three or four races.  I tend to improve as a tipster as the week goes on, possibly too worried on the Tuesday.  It is believed that Savello (2014 Grand Annual) took from Golden Chieftain (2013 3m hcap chase) the record for breaking the most stats in a race.  Stands now at 8.  Cole Harden equalised with 8 in the 2015 World Hurdle.  Remember, after you have cursed/laughed at me and given up totally on trends, they will come back to bite.  Always happens.  Usually on Gold Cup Day

Beware GO SEA - Groundless Optimism Syndrome Encouraged by Alcohol.  A Cotswold condition very common at this time of year.