• Daylesford (Dawn Run) Mares Novices Hurdle

    Race distance - 2 miles and about a furlong. All carry 11st 2lbs apart from 4 yr olds - 10st 12lbs. Penalties for having won Class 1 or 2 hurdle.

     

    2016 - Limini capped a good day for Irish trained and short priced treble kings after Thistlecrack and Vautour. An Irish bred five year old, carrying 11 st 7lb trained by Willie Mullins and steered by Ruby Walsh. 8/11 fav. Not out since strolling the G3 Solerina Mares Novice Hurdle over 2m2f at Fairyhouse 46 days ago by 11 lengths.

     

    2017 - Lets Dance capped a great day for Ruby and Willie with another short priced treble after Yorkhill and Un De Sceaux. A nicer 4 timer if you had thrown in Nichols Canyon. A FRE Bred five year old, carrying 11st 7lb trained by Willie Mullins and steered by Ruby Walsh. 11/8 fav. Not out since strolling the Nathaniel Lacy G2 Novice Hurdle over 2m4f at Leopardstown 46 days ago by 6 lengths.

     

    2018 - Laurina made it a Closutton treble. A French Bred 5 yr old, carrying 11st 7lb trained by Willie Mullins and steered by Paul Townend (Ruby injured the day before). 4/7 fav. Not out since strolling the G3 Solerina Mares Novice Hurdle over 2m2f at Fairyhouse 47 days ago by 11 lengths.

     

    2019 - Any fool would have realised that the only way to go here was seven £5 singles on all of Willie's runners. (No, don't be silly). Eglantine Du Seuil (FR), a fine ride by Noel Fehily got up from Concertista and Danny Mullins. Both 5 yr olds carried 11st 2 lb. Noel immediately announced his retirement, Danny has yet to ride a Festival winner and was unlucky here. SPs? 50/1 beats 66/1. Who knows what was the Betfair SP. Another stat to prove that Willie in the novices sometimes just gets them here. Even he may not know which one is the one. Winner had previously won a maiden hurdle but hadn't been seen out since 3rd at Listowel in September. G Elliott trained finished 3rd and 4th. That made 4 from 4 for Clusotton. Epatante well beaten at 15/8 fav, Posh Trish well punted at 3/1 also. 2 BFs unplaced.

     

    2020 - World and his aunt was all over Willie's Concertista (FR), once ATR's Tony Keenan @RacingTrends tipped her up the Tuesday before. The 2019 second to Eglantine du Seuil. Had run a very decent third last time off 135 in the Grade B 2m 2f 59k Mares H'cap Hurdle at the DRF.

     

    20s went early, 12s still available 48hrs beforehand, returned 9/2. Once Darryl disentangled himself and appeared just before the last, gone. His first Festival win 'in double green' and his first at all since Lac Fontana in the 2014 County. Great steer job by Darryl. Off the cold list. Won by a conservative 12l. He has been riding since like a man possessed or like a man with a weight off his back. A Willie 1-2-4. Second home was Dolcita, previously third to MInella Melody in the Solerina Mares. Places well reversed there. Dolcita now with F O'Brien.

     

    But the stats are

     

    Only Tintangle 3rd 2019 has been placed wearing any sort of headgear in any of the five races. 5 BFs ran last year, best Rayna's World 100/1 in third. All 5 winners French bred.

     

    • W Mullins has trained all five winners.  The first three were simple.  Limini, Let’s Dance and Laurina.  All short priced favourites. Their BHA ratings were 145, 147 and 144 respectively.
    • Eglantine Du Seuil completed the Closutton four timer in 2019.  But at 50/1.  Got up close home to beat Concertista, at 66/1, another runner for W Mullins.  In 2019 he ran 7 mares in this race, only one of which was shorter than 20/1 in the betting.
    • Concertista 2020 at 9/2 won by at least 12 lengths.  Concertista's previous run was 3rd in the Mares H'cap hurdle at the DRF.  Telmesomethinggirl
    • All bar Concertista were five year olds.  Limini was Irish bred, the other four were French breds.
    • The three short priced winners carried 11st 7lbs to victory having already won at least a G3.  All those three were unbeaten since the Punchestown Festival. Concertista had last finished 3rd in a Dublin Festival 51k Mares h'cap.
    • The three short priced winners had their previous runs in the last week of January, two winning the G3 Mares Novice Hurdle at Fairyhouse.  Eglantine Du Seuil had been 3rd in an Oct Listowel Novice Hdle.
    • In the five races there have been placed horses returned at 80/1, 66/1, 50/1, 40/1 and 100/1.
    • Apart from Concertista, Alan King trained Dusky Legend to be placed in this race twice.  Gordon Elliott has had two mares placed behind the Mullins’ winners.
  •  

    Honours Board

    Year |||Form||| Winner |||Age |||Weight||| OR||| SP |||Trainer||| Jockey||| Runners||| Last Race (No of days)

    2020 |||433 |||Concertista||| 6||| 11-2||| 141||| 9/2||| W Mullins (IRE)||| D Jacob||| 22 |||3rd £50 Leop M H'cap DRF 2 m 2f (39)

    2019||| 13 |||Eglantine du Seuil |||5 |||11-2||| - |||50/1||| W Mullins(IRE)||| N Fehily |||22||| 3rd Listowel Nov Hdle 2m (180)

    2018||| 11 |||Laurina |||5 |||11-7||| 144||| 4/7F||| W Mullins(IRE)||| P Townend||| 14||| 1st G3 F'house M Nov Hdle 2m 2f (48)

    2017 |||21111 |||Let's Dance |||5 |||11-7||| 147||| 11/8F |||W Mullins(IRE) |||R Walsh |||16||| 1st G2 Nathaniel Lacy Nov 2m 4f (46)

    2016 |||11||| Limini||| 5||| 11-7||| 145 ||| 8/11F |||W Mullins(IRE) |||R Walsh||| 16 |||1st G3 F'house M Nov Hdle 2m 2f (47)

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Wealth Warning.  Any decisions made (or not) or the basis of any information in this site are the sole responsibility of the reader.  There is no obligation on me to follow my own advice.  I take no responsibility for (but am keen to hear of) any factual errors.  (Bgault01@gmail.com, @gaultstats). Previous years ‘stats on stats’ would suggest we may identify a decent priced winner from manageable groups every three or four races.  It is believed that Savello (2014 Grand Annual) took from Golden Chieftain (2013 3m hcap chase) the record for breaking the most stats in a race.  Stands now at 8.  Cole Harden equalised with 8 in the 2015 World Hurdle.  Remember, after you have cursed/laughed at me and given up totally on trends, they will come back to bite.  Always happens.  Usually on Gold Cup Day. 

Beware GO SEA - Groundless Optimism Syndrome Encouraged by Alcohol.  A Cotswold condition very common at this time of year.