• Paddypowers G2 Mares Chase


    The picture is of the man most likely to win it?


  • The trend below refers to the Grand Annual. This G2 Mares Chase now takes its place. At the time of writing it reminds me of the old Cathcart. The stat is important (lol) in that it is the last opportunity for non-conditional professionals to get a Cheltenham Festival winner THIS YEAR. Because of that, sometimes they ride like maniacs.


    MOMENTUM - You would think that the winning rider in the GC would be too busy with presentations, photographs and interviews to pay any attention to his/her only other possible ride left in the day? No. Three of the last 11 Grand Annuals have been won by the GC winner. Paddy Brennan, Davy Russell, and Robbie Power. The latter on Rock The World said he just 'floated round'. Four others in the 11 didn't have a ride in the handicap. Only two Grand Annual winning jockeys in the last 11 finished unplaced in the GC an hour earlier, Tom Scudamore was last home on The Giant Bolster before winning here on Next Sensation for his brother. Last year Davy Russell was still in contention before falling at the second last on Presenting Percy before jogging round here on Chosen Mate. As Pricewise always says, 'pay more attention to the pilots'. This century Paul Nicholls in 2007, Nigel Twiston Davies (with Paddy Brennan) 2011, Jessica Harrington (with Robbie Power) 2017, have trained the double. Since 2010 only three other GC winning trainers actually had runners in the Grand Annual. N Henderson won the GC in 2011 and 2013. In those years, as is his want, he saddled a total of 8 runners in the Grand Annual. Kid Cassidy came close in 2nd 2013but no cigar.

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Wealth Warning.  Any decisions made (or not) or the basis of any information in this site are the sole responsibility of the reader.  There is no obligation on me to follow my own advice.  I take no responsibility for (but am keen to hear of) any factual errors.  (Bgault01@gmail.com, @gaultstats). Previous years ‘stats on stats’ would suggest we may identify a decent priced winner from manageable groups every three or four races.  It is believed that Savello (2014 Grand Annual) took from Golden Chieftain (2013 3m hcap chase) the record for breaking the most stats in a race.  Stands now at 8.  Cole Harden equalised with 8 in the 2015 World Hurdle.  Remember, after you have cursed/laughed at me and given up totally on trends, they will come back to bite.  Always happens.  Usually on Gold Cup Day. 

Beware GO SEA - Groundless Optimism Syndrome Encouraged by Alcohol.  A Cotswold condition very common at this time of year.