Year |||Form||| Winner||| Age||| Weight |||OR||| SP |||Trainer||| Jockey||| Last race (No of days)
2020||| 221||| Ferny Hollow||| 5||| 11-5||| 124||| 11/1||| W Mullins(IRE) |||P Townend |||1st F'house Bumper (18)
2019||| 111||| Envoi Allen |||5 |||11-5||| 127 |||2/1F |||G Elliott(IRE)||| Mr JJ Codd |||1st G2 Leop Bumper (39)
2018 |||11 |||Relegate |||5 |||10-12 |||120||| 25/1 |||W Mullins(IRE)||| Ms K Walsh||| 1st G2 Leop Ms Bumper (39)
2017 |||811||| Fayonagh |||6||| 10-12||| 129||| 7/1 |||G Elliott(IRE)||| Mr JJ Codd |||1st Lstd F'house Ms Bumper (39)
2016 ||| 1121||| Ballyandy |||5 |||11-5 |||134 |||5/1 |||N Twiston-Davies||| S Twiston-Davies||| 1st Lstd Newbury Bumper (32)
2015||| 1 ||| Moon Racer||| 6 |||11-5 |||132 |||9/2F |||D Pipe||| T Scudamore |||1st Chelt Bumper (144)
2014||| 1 |||Silver Concorde||| 6 |||11-5||| 119||| 16/1||| D Weld (IRE)||| Mr R McNamara||| 1st Leop Bumper (74)
2013||| 1 ||| Briar Hill||| 5 |||11-5||| 118||| 25/1 |||W Mullins(IRE)||| R Walsh |||1st Thurles Bumper (69)
2012 |||21 |||Champagne Fever |||5||| 11-5||| 136||| 16/1 |||W Mulllins(IRE)||| Mr PW Mullins |||1st F'house Bumper (52)
2011 |||21||| Cheltenian |||5 |||11-5 |||122||| 14/1 |||P Hobbs||| R Johnson||| 1st Kempton Bumper (33)
AGE - Five and six yr olds. Ten of the field last year were aged 6, Appreciate It, fav, the only one to finish in the first four. Hard to believe but no 6 yr olds ran in the field in 2019. They didn’t used to win this before ’05 Missed That, ’06 Hairy Molly (only 2 that year), Silver Concorde, Moon Racer and Fayonagh. Three 6 yr old winners in the last seven. First since Dunquib '09. 17 from the last 24 have been five year olds but better to say four from the last five. 2014 2nd to 7th behind Silver Concorde were all five year olds. In 2016 first seven home were all five year olds. In 2017 places 2nd to 6th went to two four years and three five year olds. 2018 Relegate and Tornado Flyer in 3rd were five year olds.
4 yr olds - Rhythm Section '93, Dato Star ’95 only 4 year old winners before Cue Card demolished the field in 2010. None since. Rhythm Section trained by Homer Scott, the other two in England. Four ran last year, best Ocean Wind in 6th. In 2019 Blue Sari, Willie's only representative, was one of two 4 yr olds in the 14 strong field. Strongly fancied at 7/2, finished second to Envoi Allen. Acey Milan 9/2F 4th in 2018, Debuchet 10/1 2nd in 2017, New Years Eve 9/2F 2nd in 2012. All four year olds
This century four favourites and three second favourites have obliged. Ferny Hollow 11/1 5th fav. Envoi Allen went from 9/2 to 2/1 fav in 15 minutes before the off (Blue Sari usurped as jolly) Relegate was 25/1. Fayonagh 7/1 jt third fav. Envoi Allen , Moon Racer 2015 ,Missed That at 7/2 in 2005 and Liberman 2/1 in 2003 this centuries four successful jollies.
SHORT PRICED FAVOURITES - Envoi Allen and Liberman 2/1f 2003 are only winners from 12 favourites in this that were sent off 11/4 or less. 8 of those other shorties finished runner-up. Last year Appreciate It was 'unbeatable' at 15/8f, To be fair to the layers Envoi Allen and Appreciate It are the only two bumper favs in the last decade to be returned shorter than 3/1.
'10 Shot From The Hip backed from 6s to 3s in the fifteen minutes before the off. Mr JP Magnier didn't see where Cue Card went. (You rarely see the RP use the phrase 'romped clear') 2014 Shanehill 7/2f 2nd. Moon Racer 9s to 9/2f on the day. In 2016 bookies went 8s the field in the morning finished Augusta Kate 7/2 fav, Ballyandy 5s, New To This Town 6s, 10s bar. 2017. Skelton's Cause Toujours backed down to 9/2 fav. Hard to understand why. In 2018 Acey Milan started 9/2 fav. Punters obviously didn't see Aidan Coleman falling off him on the way to the start. In Envoi Allen's year with a small field the SP overround was 121%. In each of the previous three years, the SP Overround was at least 128%. Last year with 23 runners it was 134% That's what happen in the ring for every bumper for every race meeting. Advisable to take win bet on machine or a morning price (and BOG if you can get it).
This century all 21 runners who had been beaten favourite BF last time out failed to win. Four in total tried between the last four years. No triers 2016.
Big prices, Ferny Hollow 11s, Relegate 25s, Silver Concorde 16s, Briar Hill 25s Champagne Fever 16s, Cheltenian 14s, Cue Card 40s all winners in the last decade.
FORM - All bar Monsignor and Liberman of the 28 winners were successful on most recent start. Won't be that much of a help.
Only 14 of the 28 were unbeaten. However all bar Ferny Hollow and Ballyandy of the last eight unbeaten in bumpers since July.
Eight winners this century had ran at least 3 times in bumpers. 12 hadn't. Ferny Hollow improved for hood and a fast pace. Envoi Allen unbeaten in three, Ballyandy ran in 4 previous bumpers.
The last five winners had all ran inside 40 days before this. Ferny Hollow 18 days Envoi Allen 39 Relegate 38 days (both last ran at the DRF). Fayonagh 39. Moon Racer 144 days since winning course bumper at October meeting. Against that 6 of last 18 not seen since Christmas. Silver Concorde won at Leopardstown on 28th December.
Envoi Allen, Fayonagh, Ballyandy and Moon Racer top BHA rating when allowances taken into consideration. Not Ferny Hollow nor Relegate. Handicapper had Relegate 12lbs inferior to Acey Milan despite having won a DRF G2 last time.
6 of the last 25 won a Leopardstown Xmas Bumper. 19 didn't. Appreciate It best qualifier last year in 2nd. Also cruised home in DRF, won same G2 as Envoi Allen. Sempo best qualifier 2019, 6th here, Ballybow best qualifier 2018, 5th. Bacardys best in 2017, 3rd here. This years qualifiers,
Gigginstown are not keen on what can be a rough race Eddie O'Leary, Racing Post 19th Feb 2016 'I wouldn't imagine we'll send one this year.' Darling Daughter unplaced last year after good win in Relegates DRF Mares G2. Nothing sent in 2019, Felix Desjy only runner 2018, 6th. None came in 2017, one unplaced in 2016. Neither of G Elliotts bumper winners were owned by Gigginstown.
Neither P Nichols nor N Henderson tend to target this race. No runners for each in 2020. In 2019 PN ran two who had been unbeaten in bumpers. Finished 9th and 10th. Dan Skelton's 2020 Festival Nap (Castle Carey Preview Night) was Third Time Lucki, a respectable 4th at 16/1.
17 from last 19 had won a bumper worth at least £4k to the winner (Not Cue Card or Cheltenian but £4k bumpers not that common in England nowadays. All Irish bumpers usually worth at least £4k. Ferny Hollow's Fairyhouse win was only for £5k. Envoi Allen had already won £78k in first place prize money. Moon Racer 50s first time out won big Fairyhouse bumper prize of £34k by 7 lengths. Michael Ronayne, the trainer must have had a wonderful shock that day. (I know, who? Said the horse was only three quarters fit). Ballyandy had won two £11 bumpers. Fayronagh won a 23k euro to the winner Listed Mares Bumper at Fairyhouse by 20 lengths. Relegate also won G2 Leopardstown 44k euro first prize.
Fayonagh joined the W Mullins trained Missed That to be the only winners to have finished outside the first 4 on any previous run. Both had been well out with the washing on their first run. But won their next two. All bar Fayonagh of the last 13 winners have finished outside 1st or 2nd in any bumper run. Liberman 2003 last one not to have won last time out.
MARES - Relegate, Fayonagh, Total Enjoyment (7/1 2nd fav) 2004, Mucklemeg (7/2f) 1994 have won this for Irish trainers. Augusta Kate all the rage getting 7lb, only 7th. Last year Queens Brook finished 3rd at 6/1, well tipped up by G Elliott. Two others unplaced. Since the arrival of the big Aintree and Punchestown Mares Bumpers I can only find 7 mares unplaced in the last 9 runnings of this. The Glancing Queen finished a respectable 5th here in 2019, before winning at Aintree. Returned here last year to finish 8th. Colreevy 7th of 23 in 2018 at 50s, went on to win well at Punchestown. Irish Roe well beaten in 2017. When Total Enjoyment and Mucklemeg won, mares also finished second.
23 of the 28 successful previously in fields of 11 or more (including all the last six but not the three before that. Silver Concorde had finished 2nd of 22 in a Galway Bumper at odds on).
TRAINERS - Irish Trained have won seven of the last nine, W Mullins and G Elliott the last four between them.
DUBLIN RACING FESTIVAL - Now in its fourth year, previous three were won by Appreciate It (2nd at Cheltenham), Envoi Allen (WON), Blackbow (5th). Nothing beaten at the DRF then placed at Cheltenham. Kilcruit. ('What's that coming over the hill, it's a monster, it's a monster...')
W Mullins. 10 winners from the last 24. 1-2 last year (and Five Bar Brian ran well for a long way) Blue Sari his only runner, second in 2019. Relegate was his first winner since Briar Hill in 2013 but there were two seconds in that gap. Some did said during that time that he was gone at the game. 4 winners were his only runner, 6 when he went with more than one. The 4 wins with single runners came from his first five successes. He has had 73 runners in last 24 races. His best performance came in 2018, 5 runners finishing 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 7th. Hard to beat that. Two runners in 2017 best Next Destination in 4th, Carter McKay unpl. Seven came in 2016 giving him 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 7th and 8th.
Eight of his nine winners were 5 yr olds. All bar Ferny Hollow and Relegate of his 5yr old winners had won their sole outing prior to arriving at Cheltenham. Relegate had two previous runs and was the fourth most fancied of his five runners at 25s. The hood had previously worked for Ferny Hollow.
2015 he had six runners and his best finisher was Belshill in 10th (yes, 10th). Best backed 2015 was Bordoni 7s and pulled up. Three ran in 2014 finishing 2nd, 4th and 6th. Three in 2013 with Briar Hill priced up as the outsider. Wins at 25s. Two runners 2012 - Pique Sous finished third. Cousin Vinny (3 runners) and Joe Cullen (4). Five of his winners had only one previous run. With Briar Hill at 25s, Willie must be in front for level stakes. Ferny Hollow, Champagne Fever and Briar Hill all came from the Point to Point route.None of his last six winners returned with an SP of less than 11/1. As I said last year Willie probably sometimes just tries to get them here and then whatever happens, happens. When he brings more than one, he may not even know himself which one is the one?
Of his total 74 runners in this event, only two four yr olds, Blue Sari last year, Shady Willow unpl 2006 33s. The latter had previously strolled home in a 4 yr olds bumper at Punchestown. 22nd Feb 2019, Sporting Life site. Willie says, '4 yr olds have old won three bumpers, I believe.' You would wonder why he bothers to know his Chelt stats since he smashes so many!
Gordon Elliott has trained two of the last four. Both ridden by the supremo, Mr JJ Codd. A third last year for them with Queens Brook with Eskylane 16/1 in 5th.
Only 7 English trained winners from 28 (from about two thirds of the total runners - 15 runners from 23 last year, 9 from 14 in 2019r, 17 from 24 2018, 15 in both the previous two years. However, they have only won two from the last nine. Before Ballyandy and Moon Racer, Cheltenian 2011 and Cue Card 2010 first since Liberman '03. Ballyandy, Al Ferof and Ericht won same Newbury bumper (Betfair Hurdle day) as Monsignor finished 4th in his year. Ocean Wind 6th here after an easy Newbury win in 3 mins 48 secs on good ground. Acey Milan 4th here after strolling around Newbury in 2018. Barters Hill won that bumper in 2015 and then won at Aintree. A great trier. English trained filled first four places in 2015. English trained have finished 2nd five times out of the seven when English trained won. A wonderful fact.
Naas £8k to winner bumper 21st Feb has produced Pizarro, Hairy Molly and Rite of Passage. Battleford 2nd in 2016 came from Punchestown Bumper early February. Farouk D'alene didn't come last year..
Paul Webber – has trained two 4 yr olds to be placed Press Gang ’06, De Soto ‘05. It was some time ago. But returns to success with Indefatigable in the Martin Pipe Hurdle.
Edward O’Grady only 5 runners in last 26 runnings, 2 winners and a third. '10 Shot From The Hip. Seems a long time since Pizarro kept the race in 2002 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xpt3OL-Vq-Q Shocking result by the stewards? On reflection, I'm not so sure.
BREEDING - 22 from the 28 winners were Irish bred. Ballyandy by Kayf Tara and GB. First five home last year and first four finishers in 2018 all bred in Ireland.
Simon Rowlands Sectional Analysis.
FRE BRED - Two unplaced last year. Envoi Allen is a French Bred. Five of the 2019 field were French Bred achieving a 1-2-5. Three ran in 2018, best Felix Desjy in 6th. Five French Breds ran in 2017 including the four year old Debuchet in 2nd, Bacardys 3rd 2016, Cheltenian and Al Ferof (2nd) first success for the 50 French Breds. 3 ran in 2016 all unplaced. Bordoni only (FR) bred in 2015 pulled up. No French breds ran 2014, three tried in 2013, Le Vent D'Antan 7/1jt fav best in 7th.
JOCKEYS - Amateur or conditionals have had no claim in this race for the last eight renewals. No success until '07 when Pauline Ryan went very close on Sophocles and then '08 Patrick Mullins beat Nina Carberry with all the professionals in their wake. '09 Being an amateur didn't seem to cause much of a problem to Mr B T O'Connell on Dunguib. Mind you, you might have fancied your own chances at steering that. 2010 Joe Tizzard took off on Cue Card from Ruby and Al Ferof ('What was that, Joe?' Ruby is alleged to have asked). 2011 R Johnson from Aidan Coleman. 2012 Mr PW Mullins. 2013 Ruby on the far side on the track was 'practising his apologies' to the Wylies before Briar Hill deigned to get involved and took off.
2014 Mr Robbie McNamara rode his first Festival winner with a fine ride on Silver Concorde to be followed up the next day on Spring Heeled in the Kim Muir. 2015 T Scudamore for D Pipe. 2016 was a good day for the Twiston Davies family. 2017 Mr JJ Codd hampered at the start, then flew up the hill on Fayonagh. Went round them all. Fantastic. With an even wetter sail, Katie Walsh again round the outside on Relegate having also decided to give them a start. Half a mile from home, WHOOSH. Jamie then steered Envoi Allen home in 2019 and Paul Townend did the same on Ferny Hollow last year. A fast pace and the hood worked. Three of the last four winners have now come from last place. Amateurs definitely hold their own in this. Have won five of the last nine.
OWNERS - Cheveley Park own both Envoi Allen and Ferny Hollow. The first owner to win two Champion Bumpers. No owner has won three of these, never mind back to back. Sir Gerhard.
BLINKERS, CHEEKPIECES etc - Ferny Hollow the first winner of this in 18 yrs wearing some type of headgear. Hooded for the second time. (Willie Mullins dissing lovely stats again). Only nine have tried in 18 years. A no hoper 2019, 2018 Felix Desjy lone qualifier, in 6th. One in 2017, may still be looking for it, none in 2016, two qualifiers. 2015, best Modus 2nd in first time hood having finished eighth in 2014.
Fleminsfirth is the big breeding stat. With Relegate he became the only horse so far to sire two winners of this. The other different sires have been (in order) from the start, Montelimar, Where to Dance, Strong Gale, Accordion, Welsh Term, Florida Son, Glacial Storm, Mister Lord, River Falls, Broken Hearted, Teenoso, Flemensfirth, Overbury, Shernazar, Fasliyief, Bob Back, Presenting, Kings Theatre, Astarabad, Stowaway, Shantou, Dansili, Saffron Walden, Kayf Tara, Kalanisi, (F), Muhtathir and Westerner. Does show how quickly sires can go in and out of fashion (and pass away).
Fleminsfirth's two winners were Total Enjoyment and Relegate, both mares.
Envoi Allen's sire Muhtathir was a miler on the Flat. That fact hasn't seem to hold him back.
Wealth Warning. Any decisions made (or not) or the basis of any information in this site are the sole responsibility of the reader. There is no obligation on me to follow my own advice. I take no responsibility for (but am keen to hear of) any factual errors. (Bgault01@gmail.com, @gaultstats). Previous years ‘stats on stats’ would suggest we may identify a decent priced winner from manageable groups every three or four races. It is believed that Savello (2014 Grand Annual) took from Golden Chieftain (2013 3m hcap chase) the record for breaking the most stats in a race. Stands now at 8. Cole Harden equalised with 8 in the 2015 World Hurdle. Remember, after you have cursed/laughed at me and given up totally on trends, they will come back to bite. Always happens. Usually on Gold Cup Day. Beware GO SEA - Groundless Optimism Syndrome Encouraged by Alcohol. A Cotswold condition very common at this time of year.