• Weatherbys Champion Bumper

    HEADLINES

    Only Fleminsfirth has sired two Champion Bumper winners. Both were mares.

    No horse this century has won having been beaten favourite last time out

    No 4 yr old winner since Cue Card in 2010.

    Six of the last seven unbeaten since July.

    12 of last 13 hadn't ever finished outside of the first two.

    The last four winners all raced within 40 days of this.

    W Mullins has trained nine of the last 22 winners. Four when only one runner and five when he had more than one. Yet to win it with a four yr old

    Of the 27 Mullins runners sent off shorter than 11/1, one winner.

    Gordon Elliott has won two of the last three.

    English trained have only won two of the last eight.

    Liberman 2003 last winner not to have won previous race.

    Irish trained mares have won two of last three.

    Summary

    Race Distance - 2 miles and half a furlong. Winner will be 5 or 6 yrs old or a 4 yr which won its only run. Watch for French bred 4 yr olds. Will have won last time out. Has won a £4k bumper. Ran inside the last 40 days. Unbeaten since July. Will have been successful in fields of 13 or more or trained by W Mullins. English trained not performing to their numbers. Any price. Will not have finished worse than 2nd unless had three runs and won its last two. Irish trained. The market is no guide to W Mullins's best chance. Sire of the winner could be hard to name. Check bumper, Newbury Betfair Hurdle day. Not blinkered/cheekpieces. Not beaten favourite last time. Could be ridden by anyone. Amateurs strong recent record but not conditionals. Gigginstown unlikely to risk their best young prospects. Mares a very fair record. Take an BOG early price or back on exchanges. Overround tends to be in bookies favour.

  • Evidence

    AGE - 6 yr olds. Hard to believe but no 6 yr olds ran in the field in 2019. 6 yr olds didn’t used to win this before ’05 Missed That, ’06 Hairy Molly (only 2 that year), Silver Concorde, Moon Racer and Fayonagh (RIP). Three 6 yr old winners in the last six. First since Dunquib '09. 16 from the last 23 have been five year olds2014 it was 2nd to 7th behind Silver Concorde were all five year olds. In 2016 first seven home were all five year olds. In 2017 places 2nd to 6th went to two four years and three five year olds. Last year Relegate and Tornado Flyer in 3rd were five year olds.

     

    4 yr olds - Rhythm Section '93, Dato Star ’95 only 4 year old winners before Cue Card demolished the field in 2010. None since. Rhythm Section trained by Homer Scott, the other two in England. Blue Sari, Willie's only representative, was one of two 4 yr olds in last years field. Cascova unpl. Acey Milan 4th in 2018 and Debuchet 2nd in 2017, New Years Eve 2nd in 2012 . Another John Ferguson four yr old, Purple Bay, 5th 2013. No 4 yr olds ran in 2015 or 2016.

     

    This century four favourites and three second favourites have obliged. Envoi Allen went from 9/2 to 2/1 fav in 15 minutes before the off (Blue Sari usurped as jolly) Relegate was 25/1. Fayonagh 7/1 jt third fav. Envoi Allen , Moon Racer 2015 ,Missed That at 7/2 in 2005 and Liberman 2/1 in 2003 this centuries favoured four.

     

    SHORT PRICED FAVOURITES - Envoi Allen and Liberman only winners from 11 favourites in this to be sent off 11/4 or less. 7 of the other shorties finished runner-up. ('14 Shanehill 7/2f, '13 Regal Encore 7/1jf 2nd, '12 New Years Eve 9/2 '11 Ericht 5/1 fav and 6th. '10 Shot From The Hip backed from 6s to 3s in the twenty minutes before the off. Unplaced.) Moon Racer backed from 9s to 9/2 throughout the day. In 2016 bookies went 8s the field in the morning finished Augusta Kate 7/2 fav, Ballyandy 5s, New To This Town 6s, 10s bar. 2017. Skelton's Cause Toujours backed down to 9/2 fav. Hard to understand why. In 2018 Acey Milan started 9/2 fav. Punters obviously didn't see Aiden Coleman falling off him on the way to the start. In 2019 with a small field the SP overround was 121% In each of the previous three years, the SP Overround was at least 128%. Advisable to take a morning price (and BOG if you can get it). Appreciate It

     

    This century all 21 runners who had been beaten favourite BF last time out failed to win. Four tried between the last three years. No triers 2016.

     

    Big prices, Relegate 25s, Silver Concorde 16s, Briar Hill 25s Champagne Fever 16s, Cheltenian 14s, Cue Card 40s all winners in the last decade.

     

    FORM - All bar Monsignor and Liberman of the 27 winners were successful on most recent start. Won't be that much of a help.

    Only 14 of the 27 were unbeaten. However all bar Ballyandy of the last seven unbeaten in bumpers since July.

    11 from the last 17 had ran at least 3 times in bumpers. 6 hadn't. Envoi Allen unbeaten in three, Ballyandy ran in 4 previous bumpers. All bar Fayonagh and Relegate unbeaten in their previous two runs.

     

    The last four winners had all ran inside 40 days before this. Envoi Allen 39 Relegate 38 days (both last ran at the DRF). Moon Racer 144 days since winning course bumper at October meeting. Against that 6 of last 17 not seen since Christmas. Silver Concorde won at Leopardstown on 28th December.

     

    Envoi Allen, Fayonagh, Ballyandy and Moon Racer top BHA rating when allowances taken into consideration. Not 2018. Handicapper had Relegate 12lbs inferior to Acey Milan despite having won a DRF G2 last time.
     

    6 of the last 24 won a Leopardstown Xmas Bumper. 18 didn't. Sempo best qualifier last year, 6th, Ballybow best qualifier 2018, 5th. Bacardys best in 2017, 3rd here. This years qualifiers, Appreciate it, Eric Bloodaxe, Forged In Fire, Risk Factor. One for Willie, three for Joseph. Appreciate It also won the G2 DRF Saturday that Envoi Allen won in 2019.

     

    Gigginstown are not keen on what can be a rough race Eddie O'Leary, Racing Post 19th Feb 2016 'I wouldn't imagine we'll send one this year.' Nothing sent last year, Felix Desjy only runner 2018, 6th. None came in 2017, one unplaced in 2016. Eric Bloodaxe, Forged In Fire, Ragnar Lodbrok.

     

    Neither P Nichols nor N Henderson tend to target this race. PN ran two last year who were unbeaten in bumpers. Finished 9th and 10th.

     

    16 from last 18 had won a bumper worth at least £4k to the winner (Not Cue Card or Cheltenian but £4k bumpers not that common in England nowadays. All Irish bumpers usually worth £4k Envoi Allen had already won £78k in first place prize money. Moon Racer 50s first time out won big Fairyhouse bumper prize of £34k by 7 lengths. Michael Ronayne, the trainer must have had a wonderful shock that day. (I know, who? Said the horse was only three quarters fit). Ballyandy had won two £11 bumpers. Fayronagh won a 23k euro to the winner Listed Mares Bumper at Fairyhouse by 20 lengths. Relegate also won G2 Leopardstown 44k euro first prize.

     

    Fayonagh joined the W Mullins trained Missed That as having been only winner outside the first 4 on any previous run. Both had been well out with the washing on their first run. All bar Fayonagh of the last 13 winners have finished outside 1st or 2nd in any bumper run. Liberman 2003 last one not to have won last time out.
     

    MARES - Relegate, Fayonagh, Total Enjoyment (7/1 2nd fav) 2004, Mucklemeg (7/2f) 1994 have won this for Irish trainers. Augusta Kate all the rage getting 7lb, only 7th. Since the arrival of the big Aintree and Punchestown Mares Bumpers I can only find 5 other mares unplaced at big prices in the last 8 runnings of this. The Glancing Queen finished a respectable 5th here last year before winning at Aintree, Colreevy 7th of 23 in 2018 at 50s, went on to win well at Punchestown. Irish Roe well beaten in 2017. When Total Enjoyment and Mucklemeg won, mares also finished second.

     

    23 of the 27 successful previously in fields of 13 or more (including the last fivebut not the three before that. Silver Concorde had finished 2nd of 22 in a Galway Bumper at odds on).

     

    TRAINERS - W Mullins. 9 winners from the last 23 races. Blue Sari his only runner, second last year. Relegate was his first winner since Briar Hill in 2013 but two seconds in that gap. 4 winners were his only runner, 5 when he went with more than one. The 4 wins with single runners came from his first five successes. He has had 70 runners in last 22 races. His best performance 2018, 5 runners finishing 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 7th. Hard to beat that. Two runners in 2017 best Next Destination in 4th, Carter McKay unpl. Seven came in 2016 giving him 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 7th and 8th.

     

    Seven of his nine winners were 5 yr olds. All bar Relegate of his 5yr old winners had won their sole outing prior to arriving at Cheltenham. Relegate had two previous run and was the fourth most fancied of his five runners at 25s.

     

    2015 he had six runners and his best finisher was Belshill in 10th (yes, 10th). Best backed 2015 was Bordoni 7s and pulled up. Three ran in 2014 finishing 2nd, 4th and 6th. Three in 2013 with Briar Hill priced up as the outsider. Wins at 25s. Two runners 2012 - Pique Sous finished third. Cousin Vinny (3 runners) and Joe Cullen (4). Five of his winners had only one previous run. With Briar Hill at 25s, Willie must be in front for level stakes. Both Champagne Fever and Briar Hill came from the Point to Point route. As I said last year Willie probably sometimes just tries to get them here and then whatever happens, happens. When he brings more than one, he may not know which one is the one?

     

    Of his total 74 runners in this event, only two four yr olds, Blue Sari last year, Shady Willow unpl 2006 33s. The latter had previously strolled home in a 4 yr olds bumper at Punchestown. 22nd Feb 2019, Sporting Life site. Willie says, '4 yr olds have old won three bumpers, I believe.' Knows his stats.

     

    Gordon Elliott has trained two of the last three winners.

     

    Only 7 English trained winners from 27 (from about two thirds of the total runners - 9 runners from 14 last year, 17 from 24 2018, 15 in both the previous two years. However, they have only won two from the last eight. Before Ballyandy and Moon Racer, Cheltenian 2011 and Cue Card 2010 first since Liberman '03. Ballyandy, Al Ferof and Ericht won same Newbury bumper (Betfair Hurdle day) as Monsignor finished 4th in his year. Cancelled due to Equine flu in 2019. Ocean Wind won easy this year in good ground in 3 mins 48 secs. Acey Milan only 4th here after strolling around Newbury in 2018. Barters Hill won that bumper in 2015 and then won at Aintree. A great trier. English trained filled first four places in 2015. English trained have finished 2nd five times out of the seven when English trained won. A wonderful fact.

     

    Naas £8k to winner bumper 21st Feb has produced Pizarro, Hairy Molly and Rite of Passage. Battleford 2nd in 2016 came from Punchestown Bumper early February. Check

    Paul Webber – has trained two 4 yr olds to be placed Press Gang ’06, De Soto ‘05. It was some time ago.

    Edward O’Grady only 5 runners in last 25 runnings, 2 winners and a third. '10 Shot From The Hip. Seems a long time since Pizarro kept the race. Shocking result. It was 2002.

     

    BREEDING - 21 from the 27 winners were Irish bred. Ballyandy by Kayf Tara and GB. First four finishers in 2018 all bred in Ireland.

    FRE BRED - Envoi Allen is a French Bred Five of last year's field were French Bred achieving a 1-2-5. Three ran in 2018, best Felix Desjy in 6th. Five French Breds ran in 2017 including the four year old Debuchet in 2nd Bacardys 3rd 2016, Cheltenian and Al Ferof (2nd) first success for the 48 French Breds. 3 ran in 2016 all unplaced. Bordoni only (FR) bred in 2015 pulled up. No French breds ran 2014, three tried in 2013, Le Vent D'Antan 7/1jt fav best in 7th.

     

    JOCKEYS - Amateur or conditionals have had no claim in this race for the last eight renewals. No success until '07 when Pauline Ryan went very close on Sophocles and then '08 Patrick Mullins beat Nina Carberry with all the professionals in their wake. '09 Being an amateur didn't seem to cause much of a problem to Mr B T O'Connell on Dunguib. Mind you, you might have fancied your own chances at steering that. 2010 Joe Tizzard took off on Cue Card from Ruby and B Geraghty. 2011 R Johnson from Aiden Coleman. 2012 Mr PW Mullins. 2013 Ruby on the far side on the track was 'practising his apologies' to the Wylies before Briar Hill deigned to get involved.

     

    2014 Mr Robbie McNamara rode his first Festival winner with a fine ride on Silver Concorde to be followed up the next day on Spring Heeled in the Kim Muir. 2015 T Scudamore for D Pipe. 2016 was a good day for the Twiston Davies family. 2017 Mr JJ Codd hampered at the start and then flew up the hill on Fayonagh. Went round them all. Fantastic. With an even better wet sail Ms K Walsh having also decided to give them a start. Eugene, on my couch, was being using very uncomplimentary language to Katie for about a mile and a half before Relegate went whoosh. Jamie Codd steered Envoi Home last year. Amateurs definitely hold their own in this. Have won four of the last six

     

    BLINKERS, CHEEKPIECES etc - Only seven tried in 17 years, none won. No hoper last year, 2018 Felix lone qualifier, in 6th. One in 2017, may still be looking for it, none in 2016, two qualifiers 2015, best Modus 2nd in first time hood having finished eighth in 2014. No qualifiers in 2014.

     

    Fleminsfirth breaks the big breeding stat. With Relegate he became the only horse so far to sire two winners of this. The other different sires have been (in order) , Montelimar, Where to Dance, Strong Gale, Accordion, Welsh Term, Florida Son, Glacial Storm, Mister Lord, River Falls, Broken Hearted, Teenoso, Flemensfirth, Overbury, Shernazar, Fasliyief, Bob Back, Presenting, Kings Theatre, Astarabad, Stowaway, Shantou, Dansili, Saffron Walden, Kayf Tara, Kalanisi and last year, Muhtathir. Does show how quickly sires can go in and out of fashion.

     

    Fleminsfirth's two winners were Total Enjoyment and Relegate, both mares.

     

    Envoi Allen's sire Muhtathir was a miler on the Flat. That fact didn't seem to hold back last years winner

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Wealth Warning.  Any decisions made (or not) or the basis of any information in this site are the sole responsibility of the reader.  There is no obligation on me to follow my own advice.  I take no responsibility for (but am keen to hear of) any factual errors.  (Bgault01@gmail.com, @gaultstats). Previous years ‘stats on stats’ would suggest we may identify a decent priced winner from manageable groups every three or four races.  It is believed that Savello (2014 Grand Annual) took from Golden Chieftain (2013 3m hcap chase) the record for breaking the most stats in a race.  Stands now at 8.  Cole Harden equalised with 8 in the 2015 World Hurdle.  Remember, after you have cursed/laughed at me and given up totally on trends, they will come back to bite.  Always happens.  Usually on Gold Cup Day. 

Beware GO SEA - Groundless Optimism Syndrome Encouraged by Alcohol.  A Cotswold condition very common at this time of year.