• Turners Novices Chase

    All winners bar Samcro aged 6 or 7 years

    Nine of the 11 previously raced within 54 days of this.

    All 11 winners ran at a previous Festival but only five were winning there for the second time

    Irish trained eight of the 11, seven of those no bigger than 4/1

    Nine of the last 10 won their last completed chase

    Seven of the last 10 had won a Graded chase.

    All bar Chantry House ran in a Graded chase last time

    Six of the last seven no returned bigger than 4/1

    Only Yorkhill had less than three previous chase runs. He was unbeaten over fences.

    Yorkhill the only one to win Turners/Ballymore in successive years

    Last seven rated at least 151 after mares allowances.

    Only Defi Du Seuil ran in either the Flogas or Scilly Isles G1 chases.

    21 G1 winning hurdlers have lined up, six winners.

    Summary

    Going 11 years. 2 miles 4 furlongs. In 2014 became a Grade 1 (now making 14 in all). Had been a new race in 2011. As a Grade 1 and 2 novice chase, all carry 11st 4 lbs. Mares receive 7lbs. The 2011 version was just OK but as the race ages, quality is definitely improving. With Vautour and Yorkhill it rose to a new level and that has been continued.

     

    Aged 6 or 7 years if raced at Festival last year. Irish trained shorties (sorry Jonjo) lead 8-3. Gordon and Willie Mullins have won five of the last seven. Quality course form becoming important or at least a Festival novice hurdle run last year. Ran at a previous Festival. Top rated has only won it once. Last seven rated at least 151 after mares allowances. Take on beaten favourites last time unless Mullin/Elliott, and those with less than 3 chase runs unless unbeaten Mullins trained, of course. Has been placed in G1 chase or won at least a G3 last time. Scilly Isles form of questionable value. Not British Bred.

  • Honours Board

    Year |||Form||| Winner||| Age||| Weight||| OR||| SP||| Trainer||| Jockey |||Runners ||| Last race (No of days)

    2020 ||| 131 ||| Chantry House ||| 7||| 11-4 ||| 151 ||| 9/1 ||| N Hnderson ||| N de Boinville ||| 8 ||| 1st CL4 Nov Wetherby (29)

    2020||| 1F2 ||| Samcro |||8||| 11-4||| 157||| 4/1 |||G Elliott(IRE)||| D Russell |||10 ||| 2nd G1 Limerick 2m4f (77)

    2019||| 5121||| Defi du Seuil |||6 |||11-4 |||151||| 3/1F |||P Hobbs |||B Geraghty ||| 10 |||1st G1 Scilly Isles Sandown 2m4f

    2018||| 11211||| Shattered Love||| 7||| 10-11||| 144 |||4/1||| G Elliott(IRE)||| J Kennedy||| 9||| 1st G1 Leop 3m (77)

    2017 |||11||| Yorkhill |||7 |||11-4||| 155||| 6/4F |||W Mullins(IRE)||| R Walsh||| 8 ||| 1st G3 Leop 2m 3f (53)

    2016||| 11F |||Black Hercules||| 7 |||11-4||| 152||| 4/1CF |||W Mullins(IRE)||| R Walsh |||9 ||| F G2 Navan Ten Up 3m (32)

    2015 |||1121 ||| Vautour |||6||| 11-4||| 154 |||6/4F||| W Mullins(IRE)||| R Walsh||| 8 ||| 1st G2 Leop 2m 3f (53)

    2014 |||11321||| Taquin du Seuil |||7||| 11-4 |||147 |||7/1 ||| JJ O'Neill |||AP McCoy||| 12 |||1st G2 Haydock 2m 4f (54)

    2013||| 21241||| Benefficient |||7 |||11-4 |||147||| 20/1 |||A Martin(IRE) ||| B Cooper||| 13 |||1st G1 Leop Irish Arkle 2m 1f (47)

    2012||| 111 |||Sir des Champs |||6||| 11-4 |||148 |||3/1 |||W Mullins(IRE) |||D Russell |||10 |||1st G2 Leop 2m 5f (47)

  • Evidence

    2011 - AP got off the mark for the week on Noble Prince (rating 146, 4/1 2nd fav). He was an Irish Trained 7 yr old who hadn't been outside the first two on his three previous starts that season. His last two runs finished second in two Leopardstown Grade 1s over 2 miles. Wishful Thinking 2nd and fav top rated on 155. Winner had previously been 5th in a County Hurdle.

     

    2012 - Sir Des Champs a 6 yr old off 148 beat Champion Court 150. Winner unbeaten over 3 that season and 3/1 2nd fav. Previous two wins were small field Irish G2s over 2m 4f. Winner had won 2011 Martin Pipe Hurdle and then went on to be 2nd in 2013 Gold Cup.

     

    2013 - Benefficient 147 came back up the run in to beat Dynaste 161 by 4l. Had won a two finisher Irish Arkle as his prep. 20s was big. Seven yr olds filled the places. Bryan Cooper's career took off.
     

    2014 - Jonjo said it was his week's best chance and Taquin De Seuil 7/1 ridden by a very sore AP got up to beat Uxizandre. Taquin De Seuil won both here and at the Paddy Power Meeting 2013. Was a Class 2 Chase Course winner and over the trip. Rated 147. Won last time out.
     

    2015 - Ruby made all on Vautour, rating at the time of 154. Impressive. Backed from 5/2 to 6/4 during the day. A long way behind were Apache Stronghold and Valseur Lido beaten 15l. Ages of first three were 6, 7 and 6 respectively. It was Vautour's third chase. Form figures 121. Came here from winning G2 over 19f at Leopardstown in January.

     

    2016 - There was a mess at the start when Zabana unseated Davy Russell and Outlander was hampered. 7yr old Black Hercules jogged it. Off 152 backed down to 4/1 co fav of three. (the schroods said he should have been in the 4 miler but Willie knew better, 'he was too keen'), Bristol De Mai (top rated) caught L'Ami Serge for second on the run-in. That bit was a surprise.

     

    2017 - Willie had had no winners in the first two Festival days with Douvan (inj) beat at 1/4. On course I heard it said that Willie couldn't train and had actually lost the power of his legs. A Thursday four timer settled that with three G1s kicked off here by Yorkhill 6/4 fav..

     

    2018 - Gordon Elliott's first JLT with the mare Shattered Love at 4/1 outstaying the 3/1 fav Terrefort by 7 lengths.

     

    2019 - A good quality race. Defi Du Seuil 3/1fav had too much pace up the run-in for the front running Lostintranslation, the pair clear.

     

    2020 - Melon continued his fine Festival performances but Patrick just couldn't get my 25s back up on the line. I'm still not sure.. Two strides from making Samcro into the new Harchibald. Fine training and riding performances for both horses.

     

    2021 - 'Himself' or Envoi Allen fell at 8/15. Harry Skelton did a misjudged scalded cat on Shan Blue, Nico better paced on 9/1 Chantry House for Nicky H. Winner off 151. Only won a Cl4 novice at Wetherby last time.

     

    THE DRINMORE - This century 15 winners of the Fairyhouse G1 have raced at the Festival. None of them have won. Not even Envoi Allen who started 2/11 at Fairyhouse and 4/9 here. To be fair to him only Valseur Lido of the winners ran in the Marsh where stablemate Vautour destroyed him. Beacon Edge. Willie's late change of mind must have delighted the O'Learys that day. Not. (Coincidently, horses beaten in the Drinmore have done very well at the Festival. Recent examples include Samcro, Ronald Pump, Discorama, Rathvinden, Road To Respect, Cause Of Causes, Apache Stronghold, Bostons Angel. Thank you Matt Tombs. The 2020 Drinmore winners did not oblige at Cheltenham but from three novices behind Envoi Allen in 2020, Assemble has won the Kerry National and Coko Beach the Thyestes). Fury Road, Gabynako, Midnight Run, Cape Gentleman.

     

    Gordon Elliott has trained 6 winners of the Drinmore. Four of them came to the Festival. No winners. Against that he has won two of the last four Turner chases. (And Envoi Allen).

     

    Samcro 2020 and Defi Du Seuil 2019 are the only winners not to run at the previous year's Festival. Samcro won the 2018 Ballymore and Defi won the 2017 Triumph. Chantry House was third in Shihshkin's Supreme.

     

    IRISH TRAINED - Eight of the 11. Seven of those eight didn't start any bigger than 4/1.

     

    G Elliott - Two of the last four winners and had Mengli Khan finish 3rd in another.

     

    W Mullins - Four out of the last 10, Melon might have been second at SP 14s and three thirds including Asterion Forlonge last year at 14s. None of his winners priced bigger than 4/1.

     

    FESTIVAL HURDLE FORM - In 2011 1st, 2nd and 4th all ran well in 3 different 2010 Festival handicap hurdles. In 2012 first three home repeated the good runs of 2011 hurdles. Benefficient had been unpl behind Simonsig in Neptune. Trainer stated immediately after this win that 'he just didn't act on the sharper 'old' course'. Placed horses 2013 had no festival hurdle form although Dynaste had been a seven length second to Big Bucks in a Cleeve Hurdle. 2014 only previous Festival form was Double Ross (3rd in this) filled a similar position in 2013 Martin Pipe Hurdle. 2015 Vautour had strolled home by 6l in the 2014 Supreme. 2016 didn't work. Black Hercules well beaten in Albert Bartlett wins. L'Ami Serge, well punted only 4th in Supreme, placed 3rd in this.

     

    2017 Yorkhill completed a Festival double after his win in the Neptune in 2016. 2018 Shattered Love had been the Pricewise tip in the 2017 Ballymore, ran poorly there. All placed horses in 2018 had never run here before. As stated Defi Du Seuil won the Triumph two years before this, the placed horses had ran in the 2018 Supreme, Lostintranslation 7th and Mengli Khan 3rd. 2020 Samcro had won the Ballymore and Melon had been second in a Supreme and two Champion Hurdles. Faugheen finished 3rd and well, his Festival from.. None of the rest of that year's field could hold a candle to their level of Festival hurdle form. Trifecta paid £258. No, never dawned on me..

     

    2021 Chantry House's 3rd to Shishkin, Asterion had taken out half the field. To summarise, five of the last seven have been placed at least in Festival novice hurdles. Four of those won G1 novice hurdles the year before, two of those over 2 miles. Bob Olinger

     

    21 G1 winning hurdlers have run, six have won. All in the last nine renewals. Four qualifiers last year, including 2nd, 3rd and Envoi. Chantry House was one of those 'whatever he does over hurdles...' Mengli Khan 3rd 2019 had won a Royal Bond.

     

    The winners of all three G1 novice hurdles have never all returned to win their respective novice chase the next year. Only Bob Olinger and Vanillier trying in 2022. After Shishkin and Monkfish last year, Envoi Allen did have the chance to scupper this..

     

    Bob Olinger's time in the Ballymore was four seconds faster than Heaven Help Us an hour later and no one could say that Ritchie Condon was hanging about. Envoi Allen's Ballymore time in the Ballymore was six seconds faster than that of Dame de Compagnie. This was the faster difference between the two races in 15 years. Faugheen 2014 three seconds difference.

     

    7 year olds lead 6 year olds 7-3. Samcro was eight yrs of age. Five yr olds 0-6

     

    The last 12 yr old to win any Novice race at the Cheltenham Festival was Beau Caprice in the Gloucester Hurdle (Supreme) Div 1 in 1966 (R Delargy). Faugheen didn't do achieve the feat in 2020 but it's a lovely stat.

     

    11 of the 18 G1 Chase winners to run have been placed at least. Neither Envoi, Shan Blue nor Itchy Feet made the places over the last two races, Defi only qualifier 2019, Terrefort only qualifier in 2018, second.

     

    Samcro with eight is the winner with the most hurdle runs. Chantry, three only, and the previous eight to Samcroe no more than 7 hurdle runs in UK and Ire before going chasing.

     

    Seven of the eleven ten had already won a graded chase. Not Chantry, a couple of odds on novices. Not Samcro. Just a November beginners jog around Down Royal.

     

    BF LAST TIME OUT - 21 beaten favs last time have run in this. Samcro joined Black Hercules as winners both 4/1. Shan Blue, again too fast early, mugged by a poor jumping Sporting John in a Scillly Isles. Two BFs ran in 2019, both unplaced.

     

    Yorkhill is the only top-rated horse to win this. Envoi 164 last year, 8 lbs clear of Chantry House. Faugheen 158 3rd, Real Steel finished 6th in 2019, top-rated off 152.

     

    The last seven winners rated at least 151 after Shattered Love's 7lb allowance taken into account

     

    Nine of the eleven winners were no bigger than 7/1. Eight were novice hurdlers the previous season. Eight of the last ten won last time out (Samcro 2nd and Black Hercules the exceptions). Seven of the eleven had finished in the first three in a Grade 1 chase. Defi Du Seuil won the Scilly Isles from Lostintranslation. Shattered Love won the G1 3 mile novice chase at Leopardstown Christmas. Yorkhill had yet to run in a G1 Chase but had won three G1 hurdles. Sir Des Champs had won a G2, and I think Black Hercules would have won a Navan G2 if he hadn't crumpled at the last.

     

    British Breds are 0-9.

     

    Yorkhill only one with less than 3 runs over fences. He had two unbeaten runs. Chantry and Samcro three, Defi had four. Samcro and Shattered Love hadn't been seen since Xmas, the other nine winners ran within 54 days, Defi 40, Yorkhill 53, Black Hercules was 32.

     

    Of the 112 total runners, 21 hadn't completed all their chase starts. Two winners, Samcro and Black Hercules. Envoi Allen unbeaten in 11 NH runs before this last year. Cruel, cruel..

     

    Defi Du Seuil first to double up wins with the Scilly Isles Sandown though Terrefort and and Top Notch, winners at Sandown were both second here. Shan Blue and Itchy Feet disappointed, both for different reasons imho. None came from the PJ Moriarty/Flogas 2m 5f chase at Leopardstown though Outlander may have been a little unlucky. He fell four out here when travelling well enough behind Black Hercules in 2016. Faugheen famously won at Leopardstown, third here. 2019 La Bague Au Roi went to Aintree. In 2018 Monalee and Al Boum Photo went to the RSA, Invitation Only third at Leopardstown PU here.

     

    TIMES

    Check

     

     

    On a mischievous note, the last multiple Gold Cup winner to win his first when older than seven was Cottage Rake in 1948. Envoi Allen was 7yrs old last year, Bob Olinger 7yrs old, this.

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Wealth Warning.  Any decisions made (or not) or the basis of any information in this site are the sole responsibility of the reader.  There is no obligation on me to follow my own advice.  I take no responsibility for (but am keen to hear of) any factual errors.  (Bgault01@gmail.com, @gaultstats). Previous years ‘stats on stats’ would suggest we may identify a decent priced winner from manageable groups every three or four races.  It is believed that Savello (2014 Grand Annual) took from Golden Chieftain (2013 3m hcap chase) the record for breaking the most stats in a race.  Stands now at 8.  Cole Harden equalised with 8 in the 2015 World Hurdle.  Remember, after you have cursed/laughed at me and given up totally on trends, they will come back to bite.  Always happens.  Usually on Gold Cup Day. 

Beware GO SEA - Groundless Optimism Syndrome Encouaged by Alcohol.  A Cotswold condition very common at this time of year.