• Brown Advisory Novices (Broadway Chase)

    The last 12 winners had between 6 and 13 runs in total over fences and hurdles

    All bar Don Poli of the last 15 aged 7 or 8 yrs.

    No FRE bred winners in last 15.

    14 of the last 15 already 1st or 2nd in at least G2 chase. (Might Bite unlucky)

    Last seven all from the top three in the betting

    No mare since Brief Gale in '95.

    Only Don Poli this century with only two chase runs

    No winner since 2002 made their chase debut over 3 miles

    12 from the last 14 had won over at least a Listed or £20k hurdle

    Nine from the last ten rated at least 143 over hurdles

    This century only Champ came here on the back of a fall.

    13 of the last 15 had run at a previous Festival

    All 21 Kauto Star Ch winners to come here have been beaten

    G Elliott has yet to win this

    Summary

    Race Distance - 3 miles and abt half a furlong. Winner will be 7 years of age or from the front of the market. Not the Feltham winner but could have been beaten in it. Will have been 1st or 2nd last time completed. Has been placed in a G1 or G2 chase. Last time out either won a graded chase over at least 2m 5f or was at least a ‘staying on’ placed over 3m. However first chase run was short of 3 miles. Will have run between three and five times over fences or be unbeaten and trained by W Mullins. Unlikely to be unbeaten over fences unless trained by W Mullins. Will not have finished unplaced in any completed chase start apart from their first one. Could be any price but fav not due. Won't be blinkered. W Mullins horse and other Irish trained to place at least. Not Northern trained. Winner not run for at least 24 days but has been out since Christmas Day. Probably a Novice hurdler last season. Has a hurdle rating of at least 143. Listed or £20k winner over hurdles. Either a course winner or has strong Festival form from 2020. Between 6 and 13 runs in total over hurdles and chases. NH sire and bred in Ireland. Check Albert Bartlett placings in 2019. Mullins, Henderson and Nicholls have strong win records. Elliott not so. Davy Russell best jockey stats. No more than one career non-finish.

  • Honours Board

    Year |||Form||| Winner||| Age||| OR||| SP||| Trainer||| Jockey||| Runners ||| Last Race (No of days)

    2021 ||| 111||| Monkfish ||| 7 ||| 164 ||| 1/4F ||| W Mullins(IRE) ||| P Townend ||| 6 ||| 1st G1 Leop Flogas Ch 2m 5f (38)

    2020||| 11F||| Champ||| 8 |||153||| 4/1 |||N Henderson||| B Geraghty||| 10 |||F Chelt Dipper Ch 2m 4f (70)

    2019||| 22||| Topofthegame||| 7||| 155 |||4/1 |||P Nicholls||| H Cobden||| 12||| 2nd G1 Kempton Kauto Star Ch (77)

    2018||| 13112||| Presenting Percy||| 7 |||158||| 5/2F |||P Kelly(IRE)||| D Russell |||10 |||2nd Gowran Red Mills Ch 2m 4f (26)

    2017||| 21F1 |||Might Bite||| 8||| 154||| 7/2F||| N Henderson||| N de Boinville||| 12||| 1st Donc Nov Ch 3m (34)

    2016 |||4F121||| Blaklion||| 7||| 150||| 8/1||| N Twiston-Davies||| R Hatch||| 8 |||1st G2 Wetherby Towton Nov Ch (39)

    2015 |||11||| Don Poli||| 6 |||156||| 13/8F |||W Mullins(IRE) |||B Cooper||| 8||| 1st G1 Leop Topaz 3m Nov Ch (72)

    2014||| 2P1 |||O'Faolains Boy||| 7 |||144||| 12/1 |||R Curtis |||B Geraghty||| 15||| 1st G2 Ascot Reynoldstown Ch (25)

    2013||| 22123 |||Lord Windermere||| 7 |||145 |||8/1 |||J Culloty(IRE)||| D Russell |||11 |||3rd G1 Leop Flogas Ch 2m 5f (32)

    2012||| 132||| Bobs Worth||| 7||| 151||| 9/2||| N Henderson||| B Geraghty |||9||| 2nd G2 Ascot Reynoldstown (25)

  • Evidence

    AGE - Since Minnehoma ’92 all 32 horses aged 9 and above have been beaten. None ran the last four years. So close for Whisper 2017 but Might Bite would have been unlucky to lose that race. No qualifiers in the previous four years to that, Call The Police 3rd in 2012). 23 of last 28 winners were 7 or 8 years of age. Seven year olds have won 12 of the last 15. Exceptions were Champ and Might Bite both at 8 years, Don Poli at 6 yrs. You then have to go back to the 5yr old Star De Mohaison ’06 (with a big allowance). Three 6 yr olds, Florida Pearl ’98, Young Hustler ’93 and the Don in 2015. Those are the only three six year olds to have won since 1978. Sporting John fell last year, three six ran in 2020, best Alloha in third. 2019 Delta Work 3rd. Burton Port 2nd in 2011.

     

    5yr olds recently - None since Adriana Des Mottes 4th in 2015, Unioniste 3rd as fav 2012, Long Run 3rd 2010 at 11/4. Ten five year olds have run in the last 31 years, Star De Mohaison won and three others were placed. Star got a 10lb allowance in 2006. Now only 2lb and mares 7lbs. The three 6 yr olds winners were priced 11/8 fav, 9/4 2nd fav and 13/8 fav respectively in what were, with hindsight, uncompetitive renewals. A 1-2 for seven year olds in 2021, 2019 and 2018.

     

    PRICES - From '07 to '09 Cooldine, Albertas Run and Denman all won as jollies. Don Poli, Might Bite, Presenting Percy and Monkish since. That's four in the last seven. Champ was morning paper fav, ended up third favourite. Going back, Nick Dundee, Royal Athlete, Mr. Mulligan, Harcon, Barton Bank, One Man, Keen Leader, Our Vic, Comply or Die and since 2009, Punchestowns, Time For Rupert, Long Run, Grand Crus, Unioniste, More Of That (6/4), Delta Work (15/8) and Alloha (5/2). These were all 3/1 or under and beat.

     

    23 of the last 29 were in the first four in the market. That means 6 weren't. Not a shock. Mind you, O'Faolains Boy, 12/1 in 2014 is the only winner above 8/1 in the last ten. Might suggest we are due another one.

     

    THE REYNOLDSTOWN, YE OLDE BOGEY RACE - O'Faolains Boy 2014 joined Albertas Run 2008 in completing the Reynoldstown/Broadway double, first since Killiney ’73. 22 have tried, 11 started favourite at Cheltenham, only 6 others achieved a place. Remastered went NH Chase 5th, 2020 Copperhead 6/1, fell when beat. Mister Malarkey 4th 2019, Black Corton, fifth to Presenting Percy 2018. Bobs Worth '12, Nahthen Lad '96, Envopak Token, The West Awake and Kildimo all beaten in the Reynoldstown went on to win at Cheltenham. Ms Parfois, 2nd at Ascot, just outstayed by Rathvinden in the 4 miler.

     

    Back to the Reynoldstown. In 2016 Vyta Du Roc won at Ascot but 5th here. Minella Rocco (2nd at Ascot) took the 4 miler and Ballyalton (F) won the 2m 4f nov h'cap. Since 1996 only 10 horses have ran in the Broadway Chase after being beaten in a Reynoldstown. Bobs Worth only winner. Nothing beat at Ascot came here last two year.


    THE NEW BOGEY RACE - All 21 Kempton Feltham (now the Kauto Star Novices Chase) winners to come here have failed to do the double. Some have said this stat survives thanks to Darryl Jacob wrestling Might Bite to the ground at the last fence in the 2016 race when 'slightly' ahead of Royal Vacation. Otherwise this stat may have been consigned to dust. Last year Shan Blue beat The Big Breakaway. Shan was well beaten at Aintree and the Tizzard horse struggled round in 3rd here behind Monkfish. 2020 Slate House won at Kempton and then finished a distant last in this. I've lost some money on Slate House. In 2019 La Bague Au Roi took the easier 68k at the DRF, then Aintree. Topofthegame was second at Kempton and won here. Kempton 2017 Black Corton beats Elegant Escape and then only 5th to Presenting Percy. Another fortunate winner at Kempton after Fountains Windfall RIP fell going strongly 4 out. Annacotty well beaten here 2014, 2012 Dynaste was beat in the Jewson. Even Trabolgan the '05 winner was beaten a short head at Kempton before coming here.

     

    It's an oft quoted stat - Kauto Star winners are 0/22 in the Broadway, finishing 65P84366326 this century The last 6 winners to take on horses they beat at Kempton: Black Corton Royal Vacation Annacotty Grands Crus Joe Lively Ungaro all had the form turned round at Cheltenham. Bravemansgame from Ahoy Senor

     

    Last 18 Broadway (RSA) winners all placed at least in a Grade 1 or 2 chase. Not Might Bite but I am going to give it to him (Kempton). Monkfish two Leopardsown G1s, Champ fell in the Dipper but had previously won the G2 Berkshire Ch at Newbury. Presenting Percy second in G2 RedMills at Gowran. Blaklion won the G2 Towton at Wetherby.

     

    This century 'second season' novice chasers are 4 from 14.

     

    Last year's Neptune Hurdle winner hasn't figured in the finish of this since at least 1991. City Island couldn't jump but Champ did, just about. Samcro went another route. Envoi Allen fell in the Marsh at 8/15. Bob Olinger

     

    Red Mills Chase Gowran Park over 2m 4f has been going since 1990. Presenting Percy the first to run there and then win here. At Gowran he was second to Our Duke on heavy ground. Presenting Percy also damaged the stat that 'In all Grade 1 chases going back to 2005 of the last 50 to have run on heavy ground in the last 30 days, only 6 placed, no winners.'

     

    Topofthegame joined Don Poli to be the exceptions in the last 56 winners had a run since 31 December. Don Poli won G1 Leopardstown on the 29th December. Goes back to Boxing Day now, that stat. Champ fell in the Dipper on New Year's Day

     

    Apart from Hussard Collonges’ success in 2002, Royal Emperor placed ‘04 and According To John's 3rd in '07, 32 other Northern based have failed to reach frame in the last 15. Those to flop recently include Seeyouatmidnight, Corrin Wood, Vintage Star, Mr Moonshine, Wymott. '10 legend Knockara Beau finished 4th. 2010 Aye Right came down from Jedburgh. Rated 146 100/1 5th of six finishers. None last year and none in the previous three years to that.

     

    FORM Last time out - 42 from last 47 winners were 1st or 2nd last time (exceptions Kildimo 4th in a Reynoldstown, Lesley Ann Fell, Hanakham, 3rd in the Wincanton Gold Cup Trial and, after a gap of 16 yrs, Lord Windermere 3rd G1 PJ Moriarty, then Champ F). The better stat is that this century all bar Lord Windermere and Lord Windermere finished 1st or 2nd last time out.

     

    26 of last 29 had run no more than 5 times over fences. 26 from last 28 had run at least three times over fences (Topofthegame, three chases over two seasons. Exceptions to last Florida Pearl and Don Poli - but they were unbeaten over 2 chases. W Mullins doesn't give a monkeys about stats,

     

    5 of the last 7 Irish Winners ran in the Flogas Chase on Dublin Festival Day. Monkfish first since Lord Windermere in 2013. Monalee was second at Cheltenham to Presenting Percy. Faugheen went Marsh Chase instead.

     

    Neville Hotels Chase Xmas Leopardstown - Monkfish, Bostons Angel and Don Poli won both, No More Heroes 4th at Cheltenham when 5/2, Delta Work third when fav. 2020 Battleoverdoyen 7s, a distant 4th in the Broadway. Fury Road

     

    Young Hustler '93 last horse to win this with more than 10 previous chase runs. He had run in 13 chases. That's a lot.

     

    Champ joins Lord Windermere, Cooldine, Brief Gale, Florida Pearl and Star De Mohaison to be the only 6 of the last 35 winners yet to be tried in a chase over at least 3 miles. Champ's ability to stay won it for him. Had won the 3m G1 Sefton Novice Hurdle at Aintree. From Cooldine backwards, they all won their previous start, all bar Star in a Graded race. Lord Windermere's notes say 'kept on well' in Moriarty. To be honest, you wouldn't have backed him in a fit three out here until Boston Bob fell at the last, with the race at his mercy. Of the other 29 of these only Topofthegame, Hussard Collonges (2nd twice, ‘staying on’), Nahthen Lad and Bobs Worth (both 2nd in a Reynoldstown) and Trabolgan (short head 2nd in a Feltham) had not been successful over that chase distance. Bobs Worth had won an Albert Bartlett.

     

    No winner since Hussard Collonges 2002 made their chase debut over 3 miles.

     

    Seven of the last 12 were beaten on chase debut.

     

    16 from last 22 'raced up with the pace' or 'tracked leaders'. Champ not so, neither Percy. Monkfish and Might Bite very much so. Not O'Faolains Boy, Weapon's Amnesty, Bobs Worth or Lord Windermere. Last 23 hadn't run within the last 24 days. Percy and O'Faolains Boy at 25 days the most recent runner of the 23 (and he would never have won if Smad had been allowed to go on and make the effing pace. Two years later Wayne Hutchinson in the 2015 Hennessey decides to go against trainer instructions, take the lead after half a circuit and wins by an ever increasing 12 lengths. Alan King asked gently on C4 by AP after he won the Cotswold. 'Do you think he could make the running? Placed in the Stayers as a five year old. Never going to get any faster. Hey ho, pocket talking).

     

    Last 23 winners had 81 completed starts over fences. Only seven unplaced completions, three of which were in Irish Grade 1 Chases. Lord Windermere 3rd of 6 beaten 1/2 length. Might Bite made a hash of the last when 2nd of 3 in his first chase, Blaklion was 4th of 7 in his, O'Faolains Boy was 2nd of 4 in his first chase. Monkfish, Don Poli, Denman, Florida Pearl, and Rolling Ball in 1991 the last five to have 100% success rate over fences before this race. Monkfish Don Poli and Denman the only three in the last 15.

     

    The last 12 had all between 6 and 13 runs in total over hurdles and chases. Monkfish 11, Champ 12, Topofthegame 10, Percy 13, Might Bite 9.

     

    THE LETTER F - Champ and Might Bite the first since Hussard last one to fall in any of their last three starts. Blaklion only other one in the last ten to have fallen that season.

     

    No mares have won since Brief Gale in '95. 11 have tried. (None last two years, Drinks Interval 100/1 PU 2019, Briery Belle 25s and PU 2017, Adriana Des Mottes in 4th in 2015, only ones to run in last decade. The latter ran when as a five year old and got a 9lb allowance).

     

    BLINKERS CHEEKPIECES etc - No headgear winners in last 20 - Castlebawn West well beat 2020, Delta Work 3rd 2019 in his usual hood, Full Irish PU 2017 Royal Vacation PU regularly wore blinkers. In 2019 five of the 11 runners wore some sort of headgear but neither of the first two home.

    BEATEN FAVS LAST TIME - Best race in Festival this century for beaten favourites last time winning. 4 from 27 qualifiers. Champ had been 4/9 in the Dipper when demolishing 2 out, Presenting Percy had been evens fav at Gowran. First since Trabolgan 2005 then Hussard Collonges in 2002

     

    BREEDING - 27 of last 29 NH Bred. 21 from last 26 Irish NH Bred (Monkfish by Stowaway, Champ by Kings Theatre, Topofthegame by Fleminsfirth, Presenting Percy by Sir Percy (GB), fast ground Derby winner. Might Bite by Scorpion, Irish Bred. Blaklion by Kayf Tara (GB), Star De Mohaison and Hussard the French-bred exceptions. French Breds are now 0-36 over the last 15 years. Eklat De Rire F last year only qualifier of the 6 runners. Bostons Angel sired by Winged Love, a dual-purpose sire).

     

    7 of the last 15 had won an Irish p2p.

     

    Since '94 no ex Flat horse has gained a place.

     

    TIMES - Monkfish 6mins 11 in G to S Champ 6 29 in soft, 2019 6 17 in soft, 2018 6 32 also in soft, 2017 6 09 including that bit when Might Bite went missing. 2014's fast time of 6 mins dead would confirm a good pace and good ground. O'Faolains Boy, surprisingly for a son of Oscar, hadn't run over good ground since he won an Irish point.

     

    Conclusion - Previous times have not been much help as an indicator. However, let's not be negative. Best times for this years candidates so far:-

     

    Kauto Star - Bravemansgame 6 18 three secs slower than Tornado Flyer. 2020 Shan Blue 2 secs faster than Frodon.

    Leopardstown Flogas Chase -

    Leopardstown Neville Hotels Chase Xmas Fury Road 6 20 Monkfish 6 24, both on yielding ground

     

    COURSE FORM - Five of last 17 placed at least in a course chase that season but only Blaklion of the last ten. Haven't included Champ in the five even though he was coming to win Dipper. Had been second in the Ballymore. Monkfish won an Albert Bartlett. Topofthegame had been touched off in the previous year's Coral Cup at 9/1. Percy strolled the Pertemps in 2017 (when vastly overhandicapped, I believe). Might Bite had won a £10k novice hurdle but had not impressed in two attempts at course novice chases. Bostons Angel PU in an Albert Bartlett, Cooldine 7th in the Bumper 2 years previous, Lord Windermere had never been here before, O'Faolains Boy 17l 4th in Albert Bartlett. Don Poli won the Martin Pipe hurdle. Nine of the last ten nine winners either a C win or strong form from the previous Festival.

     

    13 of the last 15 had ran at a previous Festival. Not Might Bite nor Lord Windermere.

     

    Topofthegame joins Might Bite as being the first since Lord Noelie '00 to have raced two seasons over hurdles. The latter two had only one hurdle in one of those seasons. Topofthegame came back to hurdles from one unsuccessful chase. Rolling Ball in 1991 the last winner of this to have previously spent two full seasons over hurdles.

     

    HURDLES RATING- Last seven winners rated at least 143 over hurdles (Monkfish 152, Champ 152 Topofthegame 154, Percy 157, Might Bite 148, Blaklion 144, Don Poli 153. O'Faolains Boy 4th in an Albert Bartlett under 143, Lord Windermere 135, Bob Worth 150+ Bostons Angel 139, Weapons Amnesty 140+), 11 before that weren't. Bravemansgame 149, Fury Road 153, Ahoy Senor 152.

     

    25 of last 28 were novice hurdlers the previous season. Not Topofthegame.

     

    The winners of all three G1 novice hurdles have never all returned to win their respective novice chase the next year. Doesn't look likely this year, either

     

     

    ALBERT BARTLETT G1 HURDLE - Going 16 years. Blaklion, Bostons Angel and O'Faoloins were beaten in the Albert Bartlett before coming to win this race. Monkfish, Bobs Worth and Weapons Amnesty both did the double. Minella Indo and Alloha did justice for the AB in 2020. Santini and Monalee placed in both races. Elegant Escape placed here after finishing 7th in an Albert Bartlett. No More Heroes 4th here after being 3rd in AB. That's 6 winners from the last 12. Vanillier, Oscar Elite, Streets Of Doyen

     

    12 of the last 15 winners had all won listed/graded races over hurdles (not Might Bite, O'Faolains Boy or Bostons Angel. Might Bite had won a £20k Cl2 at Kempton). Champ an Aintree G1.

     

    Naas Business Club Novices Chase G3 January. No winner has come from that race. Most tend to go to the 4 miler. Wounded Warrior was third to Don Poli in 2015 after winning at Naas. CHECK 

     

    TRAINERS - Nicky Henderson has now trained four winners including three of the last ten. And a second with Santini. Paul Nicholls has won three '06, '07 and 2019. All three winners ran at Exeter before the New Year. Bravemansgame didn't.

     

    IRISH TRAINED - Willie Mullins has now trained five winners. Moves one ahead of NH and Fulke Walwyn top the all-time Broadway leaderboard. Of Willie's other 18 runners in this, three were second, three thirds, one fourth. (Alloha 3rd, no runner 2019, Al Boum Photo fell in third at the second last in 2018, Bellshill 3rd 2017, Shanehill 2nd 2016, 2015 Don Poli, 2014 Ballycasey 4th, 2013 Boston Bob fell 2 out when right there, 2012 Call The Police 3rd.

     

    Only 7 Irish trained victories since 1985 but 7 of the last 13 and four runners up in Minella Indo, Shaneshill, Horner Woods and Lyreen Legend, 3rds in 2014 with Morning Assembly and with Delta Work, Alloha. All bar Presenting Percy of the last 7 Irish trained winners finished in the first three at Leopardstown over Christmas, four in a 3m G1, one in a 2m 1f G1 and one in a beginners chase. Fury Road, Galopin du Mesnil, Run Wild Fred, Haut de Couleurs.

     

    The last seven Irish trained were from 5 different trainers. Five of the Irish winners ran in PJ Moriarty/Flogas at Leopardstown DRF. Not Percy, not Poli.

     

    Gordon Elliott has yet to win this. However Davy Russell has the best current jockey stats by far. 12 rides, 3 wins, 4 placed. Nico has had 3 rides, resulting in 2 wins.
     

    NEXT RACE>

     

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Wealth Warning.  Any decisions made (or not) or the basis of any information in this site are the sole responsibility of the reader.  There is no obligation on me to follow my own advice.  I take no responsibility for (but am keen to hear of) any factual errors.  (Bgault01@gmail.com, @gaultstats). Previous years ‘stats on stats’ would suggest we may identify a decent priced winner from manageable groups every three or four races.  It is believed that Savello (2014 Grand Annual) took from Golden Chieftain (2013 3m hcap chase) the record for breaking the most stats in a race.  Stands now at 8.  Cole Harden equalised with 8 in the 2015 World Hurdle.  Remember, after you have cursed/laughed at me and given up totally on trends, they will come back to bite.  Always happens.  Usually on Gold Cup Day. 

Beware GO SEA - Groundless Optimism Syndrome Encouaged by Alcohol.  A Cotswold condition very common at this time of year.