• Pertemps Handicap Hurdle

    Gordon Elliott had nine runners between 2017 and 2020. Three won and the other six finished at least 5th

    Apart from Sire Du Berlais in 2020, the last nine had no more than nine hurdle runs

    Only two in the last 20 actually won a qualifier. Their last run was to win one no more than 35 days before this final

    The last six were Irish trained

    The last six wore tongue ties

    No winner this century had their prep run at Cheltenham

    Only Presenting Percy of the last 12 won more than once that season

    Of the last seven winners, only Sire Du Berlais in 2020 was older than seven yrs

    Six of the last seven Irish Trained winners ran in the Leopardstown Qualifier

    5 from the last 14 won last time out from about 18% of qualifying runners

    Nine from the last eleven rated at least 138

    No conditional jockey has won since 2011

    This century no BF last time has won

    Willie Mullins and Paul Nicholls yet to win

    Summary

    Race Distance - about 3 miles. Unlikely to have won a Pertemps Qualifier unless last run was winning one inside 35 days of the Final. Not older than seven unless previous winner. Look for those 7yrs and under with a starting price under 10s. Top weights can win this. Placed at least at Cl2 level. Has won a race between 2m 4f and 2m 6f or previous winner. Rated at least 138. Irish novices. Look for those outside the first three in the Leopardstown Qualifier. Between 6 and 10 hurdle runs or previous winner. Not a previous course winner unless won this or G1 Hurdle. Upset due?  Not blinkered unless previous Festival placed. Conditional jockeys can get placed but rarely win. JP likes to lay one out. Last time out winners perform just above their numbers. Not a beaten favourite last time. Gordon Elliott deserves total respect. As does D Russell. Tongue ties seem important. Hasn't won more than once this season unless worried about getting in.


    Was switched to the New Course in 2005. New entry rule for 2016 - need to have finished in the first 6 in a Pertemps Qualifier to get in. The skill seems not to win the qualifier but finish 4th, 5th or 6th and make sure your BHA rating is above 135. Check the Chepstow Qualifier. The Sponsors deserve every credit.

  • Honours Board

    Year||| Form||| Winner||| Age||| Weight||| OR||| SP||| Trainer||| Jockey||| Last race (No of days)

    2021 ||| 1324F ||| Mrs Milner ||| 6 ||| 10-9 ||| 134 ||| 12/1 ||| P Nolan(IRE) ||| B Cooper ||| Fell £52k Leop H'cap (39)

    2020 |||494||| Sire du Berlais |||8||| 11-12 |||152||| 10/1 |||G Elliott(IRE)||| B Geraghty |||4th Warwick Qual (61)

    2019||| 86 |||Sire du Berlais |||7 |||11-9 |||145 |||4/1F |||G Elliott(IRE)||| B Geraghty ||| 6th Leop Qual. (76)

    2018 |||33243||| Delta Work||| 5||| 10-10 |||139||| 6/1 |||G Elliott(IRE)||| D Russell |||3rd Punch'twn Qual (23)

    2017||| 11541 |||Presenting Percy |||6 |||11-11 |||146 |||11/1||| P Kelly(IRE) |||D Russell |||1st F'house H'cap Hdle (19)

    2016 |||21433 |||Mall Dini |||6 |||10-11||| 139 |||14/1 |||P Kelly(IRE) |||D Russell |||3rd F'house h'cap hdle (26)

    2015 |||41||| Call The Cops |||6 |||10-12 (5ex) |||133 |||9/1 |||N Henderson |||A Tinkler |||1st Donc H'cap Hdle (12)

    2014 |||1||| Fingal Bay||| 8 |||11-12 |||148 |||9/2F |||P Hobbs |||R Johnson |||1st Exeter Qual. (32)

    2013 |||2222||| Holywell ||| 6 |||11-4 |||140||| 25/1||| JJ O'Neill||| R McClernon |||2nd Warwick Qual. (61)

    2012||| 5P504 |||Cape Tribulation |||8 |||10-11||| 142 |||14/1 |||M Jefferson||| D O'Regan |||4th Hayd. Qual. (26)

  • Evidence

    THE FUTURE OF THE PERTEMPS - David Jennings, Racing Post, 15th January has started a campaign to 'get rid of the Pertemps.' David seems a lovely fella on Upping The Ante but I'd like to oppose that. My view is to 'Preserve Our Pertemps.' 2022 is the end of their current three year sponsorship deal. That firm has supported over 300 qualifiers and finals in the UK and IRE Racing Calendars since 2002. I have no idea how much money they have put in but the prize fund for the recent Leopardstown Christmas Qualifier totalled over 25k euro and the final last year had £73k.

     

    Cheltenham Festival sponsors come and go. As I write we're meant to be enthralled by the prospect of a blue riband 'Boodles' Gold Cup and as for the JLT/Marsh/Turners/Brown Advisory la-di-da, it's getting pretty hard to keep up with the names and the races they support. As each new sponsor comes and goes, I am afraid to say I am less and less interested. And I'm a Festival nerd.

     

    David complains that the winners of Qualifiers rarely win the main event. True, but those that do, like Fingal Bay, came from recent qualifiers and probably have kept their form better than some who have won at Wincanton on Boxing Day or even before. There are actually six qualifiers before the end of November. He also complains about the 'plots'. Well, it's a horse race with a handicap, David. Plots? Who knew? IMHO with the change in qualification, the plots have become a little more difficult. You have to finish in the first six in a qualifier and nowadays usually be rated 135 to get a run in the Final. Gone are the days when M Pipe declared Unsinkable Boxer for a qualifier and then made him a nonrunner. And still got a run.

     

    Not as easy to hide your light under a bushel these days. The Irish qualifiers are always very competitive events. The UK events not so. Hardly the fault of one of National Hunt's finest sponsors. I did note that all jockeys seemed to want to win that recent 7 runner 'dirty' qualifier at Warwick. David seems aggrieved that Willie Mullins doesn't seem to win it. Oh dear. Why is that a problem? Maybe a chance for other trainers to have Festival success? He has also yet to win any Festival h'cap chase. Gordon Elliott does seem to like this race.

     

    And finally, David says 'do we need this race? It's the NH Festival, for goodness sake.' Well, we do. There seems to be a big movement of racing press who want Cheltenham to scrap all these awful h'caps and turn it into a very boring Grade 1 two day event full of small fields and short priced favourites. The Hunters Chase will be next on their hit list, no doubt. I first attended this wonderful event in 1985 and I say to them, it is the Cheltenham National Hunt Festival and not the Cheltenham National Hunt Grade 1 Festival. The Festival should be for all and an event to celebrate all parts of this wonderful sport. Rant over.

     

     

    QUALIFIERS - Pertemps are good enough to sponsor qualifiers for this throughout the season on 16 different courses (Market Rasen has joined since 2019), 14 in the UK plus Leopardstown and Punchestown. The December qualifier at Wincanton is over 2m 5f, the only one not over 3 miles. You have to finish in the top six to qualify and then be a high enough handicap mark to get in. That is usually about 135. Last year the bottom weight got in off 131 and finished last.

     

    Rating needed to get a run from 2021 back to 2013 - 126, 131, 134, 135, 137, 135,135,135,135. It could be that with no patrons allowed in 2021 due to COVID, some runners didn't take a place.

     

    Last year Mrs Milner led at the last driven out by an excellent Bryan Cooper from staying on The Bosses Oscar. 5 lengths. The 1-2 had finished 4-2 in the Leopardstown Qualifier. Third was Come On Teddy who had been 3rd at Warwick.


    In 2020 Sire Du Berlais could only finish 9th in the Xmas Leopardstown Qualifier so G Elliott took him to Warwick where he finished 4th. (Holywell 2013 also came from Warwick when 2nd) The coveted 6th place in the Leopardstown Qualifier had once again gone to Davy Russell but this time he was on The Storyteller, jt fav and 2nd here to Sire, the back to back Festival winner. In third was Noel Meade's Tout Est Permis who was two places in front of The Storyteller in December. In second at Leopardstown was Ronald Pump then 2nd in the Stayers.

     

    In 2019 Davy Russell steered Sire Du Berlais to a beautiful 'never threatening' 6th in the Christmas Leopardstown Qualifier. Only raised from 142 to 145 for the 2019 Cheltenham. Whether it was the first time blinkers in 2020 as opposed to the first time cheekpieces in 2019, Barry Geraghty never had a moment's bother with him in the 2020 Final. Said a 'different horse.' They are not machines but maybe it was a different horse? Just joking. In 2019 Ian Bartlett finished his course commentary with 'and Barry Geraghty has carried this home.' Agreed. Barry had just opened his 2019 Festival account on Defi Du Seuil in the JLT. Obviously bouncing with momentum but was 'getting after' Sire Du Berlais throughout the last mile here. And he practically lifted him over the line. Ride of the 2019 Festival, in my opinion.

     

    WIN A QUALIFIER? - Fingal Bay 2014 and Ballyfitz 2008 are the only winners in the last 23 to win this after actually winning a Pertemps Qualifier. In both cases the final was their next run and within 35 days of their win in the Qualifier. Musselburgh, Exeter, Haydock, and Chepstow qualifiers are covered by the 35 day stat. The Big Galloper, Emmpressive Lady, Foillan, Ballyandy

     

    Last year four qualifier winners ran in the Final, best finisher Dandy Mag 7th. Four ran in the 2020 final, Third Wind best in 4th, had won the 2m 5f Wincanton qualifier on Boxing Day. Eight qualifier winners turned up for the 2019 final, best placed was Not Many Left in 3rd, won Huntingdon for Jessica Harrington. In 2018 seven of the qualifier winners made it to Cheltenham. The wonderfully named Taj Badalandabad the best of the seven in 4th. The 1-2-3 that year had each finished third in the Punchestown, Leopardstown and Musselburgh qualifiers respectively. In 2017 none of the qualifier winners turned up in the final. Presenting Percy had previously jogged around in fifth at Leopardstown. In 2017 both placed horses Barney Dwan (Exeter) and Jury Duty (Chepstow) had made it to the Final through one of the last three qualifiers. In 2016, all the first four home had finished in the first three of a qualifier. Mall Dini, 3rd at Leopardstown, Arpege D'Alene won at Chepstow, If In Doubt won at Wincanton, Tagliatelle 3rd at Musselburgh.

     

    Irish Trained have won the last six Pertemps Finals. All bar Delta Work of those six (and Kadoun in 2006 long before the qualification changes) contested the Leopardstown Xmas Qualifier. (albeit in 2020 Sire Du Berlais didn't qualify from there), finishing 49654. Would have been the last six winners if Glenloe hadn't been beaten by a nose by Delta Work at Cheltenham. Poor Barry got some slating that year. The 6 qualifiers this December from Leopardstown are: Panda Boy, Winter Fog, Futurum Regem, A Great View, Dunboyne and Pour Pavore.

     

    Qualifier winners this season are (those entered in bold) - Kansas City Chief, Stoney Mountain, Koshari, Calva D'Auge, Teescomponent Lad, Pileon, Flight Deck, Orbys Legend, Sporting John. Sassy Yet Classy, Panda Boy, Risk And Roll , The Big Galloper, Empressive Lady, Foillan, Ballyandy

     

    Three of the last six winners actually ran in the Punchestown Qualifier. This season this has been moved from February to November. Delta Work needed to qualify. Presenting Percy and Mall Dini, Pat Kelly's two winners may have needed at the time to raise their rating to get in. Mall Dini ran off 129 at Leopardstown, put up to 139 at Cheltenham. In 2015 Zabana also finished third in this qualifier before being touched off by Aux Ptit Soins in the Coral Cup. His rating that day was 144. Percy in 5th 2017 was rated 129, ran off 146 at Cheltenham. This year's Punchestown Qualifiers are Sassy Yet Classy, Dallas Des Pictons, Whatsnottoknow, De Name Escapes Me, Mars Harper, Folcano.

     

    Jessica Harrington has run 5 horses in this race. Three finished in the first five.

     

    THE CHEPSTOW QUALIFIER - Only going since 2014 and is the very last one before Cheltenham. Has an interesting pedigree. 2019 Tobefair 2nd, then 2nd in the Final at 40s. 2018 Connetable qualified at Musselburgh, ran down the field at Chepstow, then 3rd in the Final at 33s. 2017 Jury Duty 2nd at Chepstow, 3rd in the Final. 2016 Arpege D'Alene won at Chepstow, 2nd in Final at 14s. Ballyandy won well from Jepeck and Brinkley.

     

    AGE - 5 yr olds - It's over for Pragada, the 1988 winner. One of the Cheltenham Stats big beasts brought to its knees when Delta Work 2018 became the first five year old to win this in 31 yrs and only the second its 45 year history. Like Pragada, Delta Work was a novice but unlike Pragada, he had not won his previous 3 races. The Josh Gifford trained Pragada started at 16s and won by 12 lengths.

     

    NOVICES - Delta Work, the only novice to run in 2018. Both Presenting Percy and Mall Dini were novices. Everglow 8th last year, two unplaced in 2020, two ran in 2019, Cuneo best 4th. One other in 2016 finished 12th. Before that Son Amix (2nd in 2011) was only the 8th to have been placed, 5 of which were Pipe trained. Since 1983 8 novices have won off ratings up to 146 including the three winners before Sire du Berlais. Also Cuneo 4th 2019 Southfield Theatre 2nd in 2014 was a second season novice. (Darryl didn't take to been beaten by a nose, if I remember).

     

    The last 10 all aged six, seven or eight yrs. But all bar Sire du Berlais of the last seven aged six or seven. Hope that makes sense.

     

    Since ’91, The Tourad Man 4th 2017, Pineau De Re 3rd 2014 both at 11yrs only the 7th and 6th horses aged 10 or above to be placed. Buena Vista won as a 10 yr old in 2011. Last double-figure aged before him was Willie Wumpkins aged 13 in 1981. Both won this more than once. Berties Dream 33s 5th 2013 when aged 10. Nothing older than an 8 yr old ran in 2016. 2018 Mine Now was the oldest runner at 10, and unplaced. 2020 Tobefair 2nd 40s as a nine yr old, only Abolitionist 11yrs PU. Last year nothing older than 8 finished in the first seven.

     

    WEIGHT - Only Buena Vista (10st 3lb and 10st 1lb), Creon ‘04 and Generosa ’99 in past 25 runnings carried 10st 5lbs or less after jockeys allowances. Creon first winner out of the handicap in 29 years and may be the last for a long time. 16 from last 22 carried no more than 11st 2lb. However Sire De Berlais, 11st 12 and 11 9 , Presenting Percy jogged around under 11st 11. Bottom weight last year a surprising Milliner 10st 1 finished 4th. 2020 it was 10st 5lb plus a 7lb claimer. In 2019 it was 10st 12lb all placed in that carried at least 11st. 2018 it was 10st 6 lbs. Bottom weight in 2017 was only 11st 2lb so it wasn't like Percy was giving lumps away. The 11st 2 lb 'barrier' broken by Holywell 11st 4 in 2015 and Fingal Bay 11st 12lb in 2014. Bottom weight in those two years was 10st 13lbs and all placed horses in 2013 and 2014 carried over 11st. In 2016 bottom weight was 10st 7. Placed horses all carried at least 11st 4 lbs. As with all Festival handicaps, it is usually harder now to get a run.

     

    FORM - Only 14 from last 24, 1st, 2nd or 3rd in last completed start. All bar Mrs Milner, Sire De Berlais (twice) of the last nine finished in the first three last time. 13 from last 26 did win last time out from about 18% of total runners. Usually a field of 24. Only three last time winners in both of the last two renewals, best 12th last year, 4th in 2020. Of the 19 renewals this century that had had at least one last time out winner, 7 were won by last time out winners. (Hope that one makes sense, too). Five last time out winners 2019, best Not Many Left, 3rd. Only three last time out winners in 2018. None of them finished in the first 10. 8 qualifiers in 2017, Percy, the winner, the only one placed. 2016, 6 qualifiers including 2nd and 3rd. 7 qualifiers in 2015 including 1st and 2nd. 6 qualifiers in each of the previous two years, Fingal Bay winning in 2014, Shutthefrontdoor best in 4th 2013. In 2011, 3 from 23 best the great Knockara Beau in 4th. I'm told that if you had backed all last time out winners this century to win, you'd be in front. Hmmm. Not sure by how much.

     

    Only Presenting Percy of the last 12 won more than once that season. None of the last twenty had their prep run at Cheltenham.

     

    FESTIVAL FORM - This would have been handy in 2020. Sire De Berlais joined Buena Vista to be the only horses this century to have won this having been placed at a previous Festival. He was 4th in the Martin Pipe, Buena had been 2nd in this 2009 to Kayf Aramis

     

    COURSE WINNERS - Sire du Berlais, Fingal Bay and Buena Vista are the only previous Course winners to win this since at least 1991. Obviously two of those had won this before. Last year two turned up, best Come On Teddy in 3rd. IIn 2020 there were 8 runners with a C to their name, finishing 1-2-5. In 2019 5 course winners in the field, first home was First Assignment in 9th. 2018 had three course winners, all unplaced. In 2017, 7 of the 24 strong field were course winners. Best placing achieved was 8th. 2016 two course winners ran including unplaced 11/2 fav Leave At Dawn. Apart from Fingal, four other course winners in 2014 including Southfield Theatre beaten a nose (with Whisper winning the Coral Cup it was not a good year for this theory).

     

    10 from last 15 had won at least at Class 2 level (not Sire De Berlais first time, had never won a race in UK or Ire, not Delta Work, only a maiden hurdle winner but placed in two Graded novices, not Holywell, best before was 2nd in G3 handicap Haydock in November). Davy Russell did his best not to win a 15k Fairyhouse hurdle on Percy by too far. Fun to watch again. Mall Dini only a winner of a £7k Thurles maiden hurdle. Mrs Milner won a 17k euro Mares h'cap at Galway.

     

    19 from last 22 between 6 and 15 hurdle runs (Sire second time 12 in UK and Ire. Sire, first time 7 in UK and IRE Delta Work 7 runs, Percy 6 runs, Mall Dini 7 runs. Buena Vista - 21 in 2010, 29 in 2011). Better to say that 12 of the last 15 between 6 and 10 total runs over hurdles. Plus two back to back winners.

     

    Front runners. Used to be never placed. In the last 13 Berties Dream, Ballyfitz, Kayf Aramis, Buena Vista (twice) and some of the placed horses were kept prominent. As this race is now run on the New Course where they only jump 2 hurdles in the last mile, maybe less chance of making up ground? However front runners swallowed up in the last seven. Connetable, 3rd in 2018, was up with the pace. In 2015 both 1st and 2nd home were up with the pace.

     

    Irish trained have won 11 of last 27 from a small proportion of runners. But, more importantly, have won the last six. Five of the 22 runners last year returning a 1-2-4. Not bad. Eight of the 24 in 2020, finishing 1-2-3-5. Not bad either. The Storyteller and Relegate in 5th were the 11/2 jtfavs (the latter a decent Festival return for trainer CA Murphy). Six ran in 2019 finishing 1-3-4-5. Five in 2018, 1-2 for Gordon Elliott (who incidentally on Preview Nights, was all over Glenloe against Delta Work). Five ran in 2017, 1st and 3rd home. There have also been sis Irish trained runners up in the last eleven races. Seven ran in 2016, 1st and 4th. Only Edeymi at 8s ran 2015, unplaced. 3 in 2014, best Jetson in 5th warming up for Quevega at Punchestown. 2013, 5 ran best again Jetson 'never nearer' third. 6 ran 2012, Catch Me 2nd. 6 in 2011 best Son Amix 2nd, Sivota 3rd. 8 in 2010, best Prince Erik in 2nd). Well on top.

     

    GORDON ELLIOTT - Between 2016 and 2020 he had nine runners. They all finished in the first five. 1-2 in both 2020 and 2018. (The Bosses Oscar 100/30 fav second last year was the only Cullentra representative).

     

    Tongue ties - the last six winners wore them. G Elliott has only put tongue ties on four of his nine runners. They finished 1151. (No tongue tie on The Bosses Oscar last year).

     

    Willie Mullins and Paul Nicholls have never won this. Dandy Mag 7th his first runner in four years. Paul Nicholls has run 19 in this, six placed, including Connetable 3rd 2018 at 33s. Storm Arising came last year with NH form figures of 141, 14th.

     

    TRIP - Only 21 of last 30 had previously won over a minimum of 3 miles (Ok, Fingal Bay only 2m 7.5f at Exeter. Only Sire (second time, obviously, of the last six Irish trained. Holywell hadn't won over 3m. Percy won that 2m 4f h'cap, Mall Dini had won a 2m 6f maiden. Holywell had been close 2nd in the Warwick Qualifier and was fitted here with first time blinkers. Not Buena in 2010 but 2nd in this in '09). 11 from last 14 winning form over 2m4f to 2m 6f. Not Sire nor Delta Work, had only won a two mile maiden. Fingal Bay had won the Challow three seasons before in 2011. Mrs Milner had only won over 2m.

     

    JP McManus has owned 5 winners, two of which were priced 50/1. Does run a few. Last year Champagne Platininum 5th at 17/2, Unowatimeanharry jogged round as a 13 yr old. Sire De Berlais returned 10/1 and 4/1 fav. 4 other JP owned unplaced 2020. Sire Du Berlais has been the shortest priced JP horses in his both wins, Aspen Colorado unpl in 2019, Glenloe fav 2nd in 2018 from four (poor jump at the last for Barry may have cost him though he got his 'revenge' on Davy last year). Only For Good Measure in 2017, 9th. 6 in 2016, first home was If In Doubt 10s in 3rd. Leave At Dawn was the 11/2f that year unpld.

     

    BREEDING - Another stat told to sit down. Sire De Berlais joins Delta Work to became the first French Breds to win this since Tindari 1994. 88 other French breds have tried since Tindari. Two ran in 2021, Dandy Mag 7th. Four others in 2020 Tout Est Permis 3rd also. Five others behind Sire in 2019, Cuneo 4th as well. Nicholls trained Arpege D'Alene close 2nd in 2016.

     

    RATINGS - Fingal Pay in 2014 on 148 broke a bit of a glass ceiling. Previous 12 rated between 120 to 142. Since Fingal Bay going back we have had Mrs Milner 134, Sire on 152 and 145, Delta 139, Percy 146, Mall Dini 139, Call the Cops off 138. It's not surprising that before 2020 the previous eight winners rated from 138 to 148. In 2020 only 131 needed to get a run in the Final but that was unusually low - the previous 7 renewals had needed 135-137. Check the entres to see how the Leopardstown qualifiers stand.

     

    20 of the last 31 had not run in the previous 30 days. Mrs Milner 39, Sire 2020 62, previous 76 (first one this century not to have run in the calendar year), but Delta 22 days, Percy 19 days, Mall Dini 26 days since last run, Call The Cops won 12 days before this and was winning under a 5lb penalty.

     

    BLINKERS ETC - 8 headgear wearers last year including three first timers. Best finished was Champagne Platinum in 5th in his usual cheekpieces. 10 headgear wearers in 2020 resulting in a 1-3, Sire Du Berlais in first time blinkers. Eight headgear wearers last year resulting in a 1-3, Sire Du Berlais in first time cheekpieces. 10 Headgear wearers in 2018 finishing 1st, 3rd and 4th. All those three had worn their headgear before. In 2017 the three headgear wearers finished down the field. 7 headgear wearers in 2016 including 2 first timers, Tagliatelle 4th in blinkers always worn. 7 Headgear wearers in 2015 including 3 first timers, best Henryville in 4th in a hood he always wore. 2013 Holywell won in first time blinkers (7 others tried 2013). Before that, Buena Vista, in 2010 was first blinkered runner to win in 14 races from 66 triers (2010 also Chamirey 3rd. '09 5 qualifiers Bueno Vista 2nd, Pennek 3rd). Buena also wore blinkers to victory 2011. Not particularly conclusive.

     

    PRICE - Sire Du Berlais returned at 10/1 and 4/1 fav, nothing in the last eight above 14/1. Before 2014 Fingal Bay 9/2 fav the previous 10 winners average price over 25/1. Inching Closer 2003 at 9/2 the only other favourite to win since '98. Delta Work 5/1 second fav to Glenloe, Percy 11s, Mall Dini at 14s. Three winning favourites this century. About fair, you'd say.

     

    In the last 12 years 46 horses aged 7 yrs or under have started at under 10s. Bosses Oscar 2nd last year at 100/30 fav (Come on Teddy was 10/1 in third). Relegate of three best in 5th 2020. Winner 2019, 1-2 2018. Jury Duty placed at 9s in 2017. Call The Cops winner 2015.

     

    Sire Du Berlais the sixth horse to repeat success. Ratings 145 and 152. Buena Vista's ratings were 133 and then 138. Willie Wumpkins '79, '80, '81 the previous multiple winner. Mrs Milner

     

    JOCKEYS - Since 1992 8 conditional/amateur jockeys have won this. But none recently. None since Conor O'Farrell claimed 5lbs off Buena Vista second time around in 2010. Nineteen claiming jockeys spread over the past four years, Jordan Gainford (7) on the fav in second the best last year, Liam Harrison (7) in 6th and Eoin Walsh (7) in third 2020 the only ones to finish in the first seven home in any of the four years. In 2017, 8 claiming jockeys tried, best Kevin Dowling (10) in fourth. 4 tried in 2016, best Jack Kennedy(3) also fourth. 3 in 2015 where Mr. W Biddick (3) had a great spin in fourth.

     

    Barry Geraghty and Davy Russell lead this with three each. Level with Jim Wilson on Willie Wumpkins. Between them Barry and Davy have won five of the last. Davy had actually no ride in 2019 having won it three years in a row. Scandalous! And was injured last year

     

    This century no beaten fav last time out has won this. Five tried last year including 3rd and 4th home. Jatiluwih tried in 2020 under Mr David Maxwell (3), finished 7th. Five tried in 2019, Cuneo best finisher in 4th. Three unpl triers between 2018 and 2017

     

    If your bookie doesn't pay at least 5 places in this, with 24 runners every year, they are stealing from you. Take your custom somewhere else.

     

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Wealth Warning.  Any decisions made (or not) or the basis of any information in this site are the sole responsibility of the reader.  There is no obligation on me to follow my own advice.  I take no responsibility for (but am keen to hear of) any factual errors.  (Bgault01@gmail.com, @gaultstats). Previous years ‘stats on stats’ would suggest we may identify a decent priced winner from manageable groups every three or four races.  It is believed that Savello (2014 Grand Annual) took from Golden Chieftain (2013 3m hcap chase) the record for breaking the most stats in a race.  Stands now at 8.  Cole Harden equalised with 8 in the 2015 World Hurdle.  Remember, after you have cursed/laughed at me and given up totally on trends, they will come back to bite.  Always happens.  Usually on Gold Cup Day. 

Beware GO SEA - Groundless Optimism Syndrome Encouaged by Alcohol.  A Cotswold condition very common at this time of year.