• Sporting Life Arkle Chase

    Last eleven winners all aged either 6 or 7 years.

    12 of last 14 already rated 151+

    Only one winner this century not favourite or second favourite on the previous run

    N Henderson has ran nine with hurdle rating 145+. Five won, three others second

    Only Western Warhorse of the last 21 wore headgear.

    Mullins or Henderson have won eight of the last ten.

    14 of the last 15 winners had previously raced at Cheltenham.

    Seven of the last ten favourites have won. All at odds on.

    Shishkin only horse to do the Doncaster Lightning Chase double.

    Last twelve winners won last time out.

    13 of last 15 were rated 142+ over hurdles.

    This century only 2 winners had fallen this season.

    15 from the last 17 had three or four chase runs, the other two were unbeaten.

    All winners this century had already won a race with today's jockey

    Summary

    Not 8 yrs of age or older unless Grade 1 Chase winner and rated in high 150s. Hasn’t finished outside the first two on any completed chase start in England or Ireland. Won last time out and has should have had previous run since Jan 1. Has won at least 50% of all completed chase starts or trained by W Mullins. Unlikely to have fallen this season but if so, has won all other races. At least 7 total runs over hurdles/fences. Won’t have run more than five times over fences. A chase win in a time under 4 minutes 1 sec or Grade 2 Hurdle winning time under 4 minutes is likely. French bred to be placed. Likely to have been rated over hurdles in excess of 142 or unbeaten over fences. Favourite or second favourite last time out or course chase winner. Check 2021 Festival novice hurdle form. Unlikely to be wearing blinkers. Course winner or decent previous Festival run. Form over 2m 4f would be useful. Can't get away from N Henderson runners with hurdle rating above 145. Not beaten favourite last time. The Supreme/Arkle double no longer a collector's item. RPR recent hurdle rating of 160+ is handy. At least a G2 winner over fences or hurdles.

  • Honours Board

    Year |||Form |||Winner||| Age||| Weight||| OR||| SP||| Trainer||| Jockey ||| Runners|||Last race (No of days)

    2021|||111||| Shishkin ||| 7 ||| 11-4 ||| 164 ||| 4/9F ||| N Henderson ||| N de Boinville ||| 5 ||| 1st G2 Donc (45)

    2020 |||111121||| Put The Kettle On||| 6 |||10-11||| 144 |||16/1||| H de Bromhead(IRE) ||| A Coleman||| 11||| 1st G2 Cheltenham (114)

    2019 |||231||| Duc des Genievres |||6 |||11-4||| 151||| 5/1||| W Mullins(IRE)||| P Townend |||12 |||1st Gowran Beginners 2m 4f (24)

    2018 |||111||| Footpad |||6||| 11-4||| 162 |||5/6F |||W Mullins(IRE) |||R Walsh |||5 |||1st G1 Irish Arkle (38)

    2017 |||111||| Altior |||7 |||11-4||| 170 |||1/4F |||N Henderson||| N de Boinville||| 9 |||1st G2 Newbury Game Spirit (31)

    2016||| 111||| Douvan |||6 |||11-4||| 161 |||1/4F |||W Mullins(IRE) |||R Walsh |||7 |||1st G1 Irish Arkle (44)

    2015||| F11||| Un de Sceaux |||7||| 11-4||| 166||| 4/6F |||W Mullins(IRE) |||R Walsh |||11||| 1st G1 Irish Arkle

    2014 |||261 |||Western Warhorse||| 6 |||11-4||| 135||| 33/1 |||D Pipe |||T Scudamore |||9 |||1st Donc Cl3 Nov. (62)

    2013 |||11||| Simonsig |||6 |||11-7||| 160 |||8/15F |||N Henderson |||B Geraghty |||7||| 1st G2 Kemp. Wayward Lad (75)

    2012||| 111 |||Sprinter Sacre |||6||| 11-7 |||169||| 8/11F |||N Henderson||| B Geraghty |||6 |||1st G2 Newbury Game Spirit (25)

  • Evidence

     

    The 8 yr old Stat - Sizing Europe 2010 and Moscow Flyer 2002 only winners for those aged 8 yrs since Commandante ’90. Both Sizing and Moscow rated in the high 150s when running in this and both had won the Grade 1 novice chase in December at Leopardstown. Edwardstone.

     

    None tried last year. 2020 Four in the 11 strong field, Global Citizen 33s best in 4th, the other three didn't finish. Articulum 25/1 placed as a nine year old in 2019. None of this age tried '18 or '17. Then we have to go back to 2011 Finians Rainbow 2nd, '10 Osana 3rd, Kalahari King 2nd in '09. There has been no 9 year old winner since Danish Flight '88. One of the best known Cheltenham stats. Will die someday, but when? Last year the 1-2-3 was aged 7-7-6, 2020 it was 6-5-6 yrs, In 2019 Duc De Genievres from Us and Them both 6 yr olds. 2018 Footpad was a 6 yr old, 2017 first three home all seven year olds.

     

    To summarise, the last eleven winners - 6 yr olds lead 7 yr olds, Six - Five. Over the last six, Four - Two.

     

    5 yr olds - Do well with smaller numbers but allowance stopped after '08. No 5 yr old winner since Voy Por Ustedes '08. His Excellency 3rd of 7 runners 2013. No 5 yr olds ran in 6 of the last 9 years. Allmankind 5/1 beat one home last year. Fakir D'Oudaries a fine second 2020. Saint Calvados went off too quick in 2018. None ran in the previous two years, Clarcam beat one home in 2015. 0-13 since 2007

     

    PRICE - Favorites - Shishkin at 4/9 strikes again for Odds On followers. Notebook and Hardline couldn't continue the Arkle Odds On winning run after Footpad 5/6, Altior 1/4, Douvan 1/4 following Un De Sceaux 4/6. Before that Simonsig (hero) 2013 and Sprinter Sacre 2012. Currently still about the best current Festival race for favourites. Ferny Hollow

     

    Before 2012 we have to go back to Azertyuiop ’03, Klairon Davis ’95, Remittance Man ’91. Those all short priced and turned over - Notebook (5/2), Champagne Fever (11/4) Medermit (11/4), Captain Cee Bee (5/2), Noland, War of Attrition, Sybillin, Mulligan, Decoupage and Seebald. With small fields and the JLT you might expect more favourites to win. No more than 11 runners each year in this since JLT introduction. 5 last year, 11 ran in 2020. Sybillin 4/5 in 1993 was the previous odds on before Sprinter Sacre 2012 and the last one to get beat. (Just love this stuff sometimes). Seven odds on shots this century and all have won.

     

    Put The Kettle on joins Western Warhorse 33s 2014 first winners to be priced over 11/1 since Waterloo Boy 20s in '89. Eldorado Allen 33s, Articulum 25s, Ordinary World 25s joined Gods Own and Baily Green (both 2nd at 33s) first since Ashley Brook '05 to be placed at 20/1 plus. 12 horses 20/1 and over have been placed in past 26 races. Seems fair

     

    Put The Kettle On is the only winner in 28 winners not to be favourite or second favourite on their previous run. Was the 6/1 outsider of four when winning the Cheltenham Arkle Trial.


    Since the turn of the century 25 last time out beaten favourites have run. One winner Tidal Bay 6/1. Had been beaten 1/2 length on previous run at Doncaster at 1/4 but had won 3 novice chases that season. None ran last two years. 2019's qualifiers Kalasnikov BD, Lalor PU.

     

    TRAINERS 

    Irish trained - 10 of the last 26 including five of the last seven with The Kettle, Duc de Genievres, Footpad, Douvan, Un De Sceaux. Henry broke W Mullins' run. Sizing Europe '10, Forpadytheplasterer '09, Moscow Flyer ’03 and eleven others placed out of 75 runners over the past 20 years. Captain Guinness no better than 3rd of 5 runners last year, a 1-2 in 2020 from 4 runners, 2019 an Irish 1-2-3 from 5 runners. (Sizing John, Champagne Fever both 2nd, Ordinary World 3rd, Trifolium 3rd 2014. 2013 Baily Green 2nd 2011 Realt Dubh 3rd). Last 9 winners of Irish Arkle to turn up finished 31121111616 in this. Energumeme a late and disappointing NR last year. Notebook and Some Plan each finishing 6th spoils that a bit. Irish winners of this had finished placed 31121111 in the December Leopardstown 2 mile novice. Franco De Port finished last at Cheltenham. Ferny Hollow from Riviere D'Tel. Notebook again and Le Richebourg NR in 2019. Footpad won it, Min won it in 2017, Douvan won 2016. Winners of this who had run in the Irish Arkle finished 111U1FF211 in Ireland.

     

    N. Henderson - Seven wins, three seconds, and three thirds from 23 runners in past 28 races. Had no runner in 2020 or 2019, Brain Power 14s second in 2018. 2016 Vaniteux may have finished second before UR two out. Before Shishkin, Altior, Simonsig and Sprinter Sacre his last winner was Tuitchev in 2000. He has run nine horses in this who had a hurdle rating in excess of 145. Five won, three finished second and Vaniteux. Dusart?

     

    Henry de Bromhead - Beginning to have some ammunition for this race. Won it with Sizing Europe in 2010, then a gap of four years with no entries. Has run 9 in the last six, Captain Guinness 3rd, Put The Kettle On wins, Sizing John 2nd, Ordinary World 3rd.

     

    JP McManus has only had seven runners this century, Fakir D'Oudaries (2nd) first since Tap Night 2013, and the first placed since Foreman in 2006.

     

    M/D. Pipe - 5 wins, 2 seconds and a third from 15 runners in past 21. Nothing placed for 7 years and then along comes Western Warhorse in 2014. D Pipe immediately admitted that he had spent the previous two weeks trying to persuade the owner, Roger Brookhouse, not to run him. No runners last six years and I don't see any in 2022. Well Chief (star) and the Warhorse only had one chase run. Winners back to '94 at least two chase runs.

     

    Mullins/Henderson have won eight of the last ten between them. Would have been nine without the Warhorse.

     

    P. Nicholls - In last 20 has had 20 runners. Two winners, four thirds. However since Azer '03 only three thirds from 15 runners. (No runners last five years, Vibrato Valtat 4th in 2014 after trying to take the favourite on. Dodging Bullets unpl 2014. No runner 2013, Al Ferof unpl 2012).

     

    A. King - has only ever had 6 runners in this. Probably now as well known a stat as Danish Flight. Jahash in ’04 was 4th at 150/1, Kadount ’05 was travelling well when UR four out and then he won it twice with Voy Por Ustedes and My Way De Solzen. 2011 Medermit his first runner for 4 years and favourite, only 4th. Last runner was Valdez 4th 2014. Edwardstone

     

    Northern based - Cloudy Dream 12s ran in 2017 to finish 2nd for Malcolm Jefferson. Kahahari King 2nd '09, Tidal Bay won '08 and Monets Garden’s 2nd to Voy ’06 improves their performance from the previous decade. Overturn well beaten at 7/2 in 2013. No triers 2015, '16 or in any of the last four years.

     

    FORM - All the last 12 winners won last time out. Only Contraband (3rd) and Moscow Flyer (F) of the last 29 winners did not finish 1st or 2nd in their previous race. Of those 29 only Moscow, Ventana Canyon and Un De Sceaux had actually fallen that season. Moscow had fallen twice. Ventana Canyon started chasing career in the same 2m 2f Thurles Beginners as Un De Sceaux. Duc De Genievres is the only winner since Contraband '05 not to have finished in the first 2 on any completed chase start that season in GB or Ire. But then when did Willie Mullins ever worry about stats. Western Warhorse had won his only chase.

     

    17 of the last 20 had won at least a G2 that season. Not the Duc, Western Warhorse, nor Well Chief.

     

    BHA RATINGS - 10 of last 19 had rating of 156 plus and were the top-rated hurdler. Shishkin obviously 164. Global Citizen top rated hurdler 2020 off 156. Kettle chase rating 144. Altior was given a rating of 170 after winning the Game Spirit before this. Brain Power and Petit Mouchoir both had 3 lbs in hand over Footpad over hurdles according to the handicapper.

     

    2013 Simonsig second top-rated hurdler, 2012 Sprinter Sacre lowest hurdle rating 145 of first 4 home.

     

    18 of last 21 rated at least 142 over hurdles. Duc de Genievres 146, Altior, Douvan 160+ Un De Sceaux at least 156. Footpad 157 (Put The Kettle On only 123, Western Warhorse was 125, Voy Por Ustedes not officially rated but likely to not have been much over 120 - both were unbeaten over fences). Henry de Bromhead knows his stats. When questioned about this before Put The Kettle On won, 'aah sure, wasn't Special Tiara only a hurdler off 116.' Edwardstone 150 over hurdles, currently 159 over fences.

     

    10 of last 15 winners had won a Pattern race over hurdles (not the Kettle, the Duc, Captain Chris, Sprinter Sacre nor Western Warhorse).

     

    Racing Post Ratings - In the last 20 races, 18 horses came with a recent hurdle RPR of 160+. 10 won, four others placed. Shishkin and Footpad RPR 162 in previous season. None between them and no other qualifiers in their respective races. I'm not a big fan of RPRs, just another opinion?

     

    24 from last 30 had won at least 50% of their completed chase starts. Duc De Genievres broke this stat run which had gone back to Captain Chris 2011. He had only one win from 4 runs. 27 of last 34 had won at least twice over fences. (Again the Duc broke this, only one win, three other exceptions were trained by M/D Pipe, Forpadytheplasterer had been 2nd in three Grade 1 chases). Put The Kettle On, Un De Sceaux and Azertyuiop only winners since Anaglogs Daughter in 1980 to make most of the running. Douvan led from the 3rd when Ruby got bored. Footpad 2018 picked up the pieces as Davy Russell and Aiden Coleman both blew their chances by setting a ridiculous pace.

     

    Last 25 no more than 6 runs over fences. Only Western Warhorse of the last 21 wore blinkers. And that was first time. 28 of last 30 winners had at least 7 runs over hurdles/fences. Not Western Warhorse (5). He also became the 5th winner since 1987 to have had less than 3 chase runs. Shishkin and Footpad had won 3 chases, Altior and Put The Kettle On had won 4 chases.

     

    11 from last 15 had won over 2m 4f. Shiskin the Sidney Banks at Huntingdon, Put The Kettle On three times over that trip, The Duc at Gowran, Footpad at Auteuil. Altior had beaten Black Corton 63 lengths in a match but over just 2m 2f. Not Forpady, only also had won over just 2m 2f. Nor Sprinter Sacre, only 2nd in an 2m 4f novice hurdle. Not Douvan, only 2m 1f. Only 14 from last 21 had won a Chase by Tingle Creek Day (7th December). Not the Duc, Captain Chris, Well Chief or any of the four before Douvan. Won a beginners chase at Navan on 22nd November. Un De Sceaux would have won but fell at 1/8 in a Thurles Beginners. Not particularly relevant, methinks, but its here..

     

    It has never happened that the winners of all the Supreme, Ballymore and Albert Bartlett have come back the next year and won the Arkle, Marsh and Festival Chase. Not this year, either.

     

    SUPREME NOVICE/ARKLE DOUBLE - Becoming fashionable. Shishkin, Altior and Douvan first since Flyingbolt in 1965 to do a Supreme-Arkle double. And Flyingbolt was rated 210. Seven others have tried. Un De Sceaux didn't come via the hurdle route because they already had Vautour. Other recent triers Al Ferof 3/1 2012 and Champagne Fever 11/4 jt fav 2014 caught on the line by Western Warhorse. To credit Ruby, he went on RUK later that year explaining in detail why and when he should have kicked on a bit earlier that day. Simonsig had strolled a Neptune. Sprinter Sacre 3rd in Supreme Novice before winning here. He had finished behind Al Ferof in the hurdle, Somersby 3rd in Supreme Novices before 2nd here 2010, Kalahari King 4th in Supreme Novice '08 before 2nd here '09. Noland won Supreme '06, 3rd here '08, Wild Passion 2nd Supreme '05, 4th here in '06. Medermit 2nd Supreme Novice '09 before failing here. Appreciate It NR

     

    Shishkin became the first to do the double with the Lightning Chase winner at Doncaster late January. Since 2010 only 4 have attempted it, the shortest price and probably best other performance was Vaniteux 8/1, fell two out when still pitching.

     

    COURSE FORM - Only Un De Sceaux and Voy Por of the last 18 winners had never run here before. Western Warhorse had been 2nd in a Cl3 hurdle off 125. The other 14 had 'good' course form. Definition as follows. Either a course winner or 'decent' run at a previous festival. Stat stretched to include the Duc, 5th beaten 9l behind Samcro in the Ballymore, Forpadytheplasterer had finished 4th in another 'Ballymore'. The other 13 had also either won at least a G3 here or been placed in G2 or G1. Shishkin and Altior both won Supremes. Footpad has been 3rd in a Triumph and 4th in a Champion Hurdle. Put The Kettle On won the November G2 Arkle Trial. Ferny Hollow, Blue Lord.

     

    Boreen Prince 1985 last runner up in Champion Hurdle to win this the following year. Overturn failed in 2013. Melon went elsewhere. Sharjah staying over hurdles.

     

    Apart from The Kettle and Sizing Europe all winners since 1966 had had a run since Jan 1st.

     

    Kingmaker (Warwick, Feb 15th) prep race with best current record. Winner of that has finished 0123U12634 in this. Allmankind 4th Rouge Vif 3rd 2020. No Scilly Isles winner has doubled up in last 20. Sporting John couldn't jump. Itchy Feet and Defi De Seuil went to the Marsh Chase. Wayward Lad Chase at Kempton December won by Shishkin, Remittance Man, Sprinter Sacre and Simonsig. Edwardstone.

     

    TIMES - This race is usually run in a time under 4 minutes 3 secs. Shiskin did 3 53 in sotf ground. Kettle - 4 mins 8 secs proving 2m 4f stamina very important. 2019 Duc de Genievres 3 mins 59, 2018 Footpad 4 mins 2 in heavy going, Altior 3.55 Douvan 3.49, Un De Sceaux 3.51, 2014 3mins 47 2013 Simonsig did 4 mins 2 (in soft ground).

     

    14 of last 23 winners had already won a chase in a time under 4 minutes 1 second or had posted a time under 4 minutes in at least a Grade 2 Hurdle. Not the Kettle nor the Duc. The latter had only won a chase over 2m 4f. (Shiskin 3 55 in a Wayward Lad, Footpad 3 45 Irish Champion Hurdle, Altior 3 46, Douvan 3 48 in respective Supremes, Sizing Europe 3.50 for an Irish Champion). Altior 3.54 in a Wayward Lad jog. Exceptions include Western Warhorse, Or Royal and Tuitchev who all had yet to contest a 2-mile chase although the latter had been 6th in the previous years Champion Hurdle. Also Tidal Bay who had posted a time of 4mins 6 over 2m ½ furlong when 2nd at Doncaster, Captain Chris, a course hurdle winner and G2 Pendil winner last time out and finally Simonsig, a Festival G1 winner.

     

    2020 contenders best times.

     

    Wayward Lad Kempton - Edwardstone 4.02 Soft

    Lightning Chase Doncaster - 2m 1/2f

    2m Cheltenham November - Third Time Lucki 3 56

    Irish Arkle - 2m 1 1/2f Soft

    Leopardstown Christmas 2 mile 1f Ferny Hollowranco de Port 4 11 soft

    Kingmaker Warwick -

     

    Some Plan 4 mins 6 secs for Irish Arkle 2017 and then stuffed in this. Although he finished alone it was 'probably the fastest run Irish Arkle in many years' said Davy Russell. Very likely with the unusually good ground in early Feb that year. Interesting that Leopardstown now has difficulty with fast ground

     

    BREEDING - 12 of last 27 winners were French bred from about 25% of runners. Including all of Willie's last four winners. 15 weren't including Shishkin. However a French bred has been placed at least in 16 of last 21, Eldorado Allen last year. Four from a field of 11 2020, best 2nd and 3rd. 2019 Duc De Genievres was the only French Bred in the field. Footpad FRE. Douvan was bred in France but is by Walk In The Park, an Irish sire. (The sire of Min, as well). Altior is Irish bred by High Chapparal. Riviere D'etel, Blue Lord

     

    Only 13 German breds have run. Well Chief hacked home, two seconds and a third. Notebook and Lalor didn't help the cause.

     

    Put The Kettle On stuffed the MARES stat. Kruguyrova '08 only placed mare of ten which had run in the past 20 years. Previous mare to win obviously Anaglog’s Daughter ‘80.

     

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Wealth Warning.  Any decisions made (or not) or the basis of any information in this site are the sole responsibility of the reader.  There is no obligation on me to follow my own advice.  I take no responsibility for (but am keen to hear of) any factual errors.  (Bgault01@gmail.com, @gaultstats). Previous years ‘stats on stats’ would suggest we may identify a decent priced winner from manageable groups every three or four races.  It is believed that Savello (2014 Grand Annual) took from Golden Chieftain (2013 3m hcap chase) the record for breaking the most stats in a race.  Stands now at 8.  Cole Harden equalised with 8 in the 2015 World Hurdle.  Remember, after you have cursed/laughed at me and given up totally on trends, they will come back to bite.  Always happens.  Usually on Gold Cup Day. 

Beware GO SEA - Groundless Optimism Syndrome Encouaged by Alcohol.  A Cotswold condition very common at this time of year.