QUALIFYING CHANGES FROM BHA - From Oct 1st '22 a novice horse shall only be qualified to run in a Class 1 or Class 2 Handicap Hurdle Race if it has run a minimum of four times in Hurdle races in Great Britain, Ireland or France. (State Man and Saint Roi had only three).

AGE - Eight yrs and older - Five winners since ‘97 but only seven since 1959. Four last year, best West Cork at eight yrs, a well punted and respectable 4th. Had won last season's Gretawood. In 2021 kept thinking Petit Mouchoir at 22s at 10 yrs, can't surely keep them all at bay? Oh no, he was just caught by a horse having his 12th run since the 17th June. Petit Mouchoir only one of two older than eight in the field, Global Citizen PU. Decent run 2020 by 9 yr old Moon Over Germany, a 25/1 6th. Ch'tibello's win in 2019 followed a fine second by Remiluc in 2018. He was a 9yrs old at 50/1, three others unplaced. In 2017 Arctic Fire at 8 yrs proved what a class act he was (and a fine trainer he had) under a very cool Paul Townend ride, five others unplaced. 2012 Alderwood won from 4 triers, '07 Pedrobob, '02 Rooster Booster). Remiluc had been 5th in a Betfair Hurdle. Had previously won the 2 mile h'ap hurdle that closes Trials Day.

Ch'tibello's last run was second in a 2m 4f h'cap at Aintree in early December, 97 days previous. After that run Dan Skelton said he would win the County. That's pretty cool. Arctic Fire's last run had been 418 days previous, 15 lengths second to Faugheen in an Irish Champion Hurdle. 8 yr olds Pedrobob and Rooster Booster last runs were to be placed in a Totesport/Betfair Hurdle. Alderwood was still a novice but had 12 hdle runs. Four ran in 2016, great performance by Fethard Player in 2nd. In 2013 - Manyriverstocross 25s 3rd as a 8 yr old and had been previously placed in a Betfair. Arcalis placed in 2010 as a 10 year old and a previous Festival winner.

5 yr olds have suppliers 10 winners this century including five of the last 13 from about 30% of runners. Seven from the 26 last year resulting in a 1-2. Six ran in 2021, best finisher eighth. Saint Roi 2020 was the first five-year-old winner in four renewals. 10 of the 24 in 2020 were that age. 2019, best was We Have A Dream in second, 7 from 27 in 2018, best was Whiskey Sour in 3rd. 2017 - Ivanovich Gorbatov in 6th. Backed down to 5/1 fav at the off. 2016, 1st and 4th. 2015, best 4th. 2014 a 1-2-4-5-6. 2013 5 ran, best Shadow Catcher in 4th. 2012 2-3-4. In 2011 Final Approach got up on the line as one of six five yr olds from 26 runners. '09 American Trilogy strolled home. '08 Silver Jaro won.

NOVICES - Ten winning novices since '93 including the last three (State Man rated 141, Belfast Banter 129, Saint Roi 135, Lac Fontana and Alderwood at 139. Ted Veale off 134. Ten of the 26 last year were novices, a 1-2-3 First Street 142 and Colonel Mustard 140. 2019, one unplaced, three ran 2018 best Whiskey Sour in 3rd. 5 in 2017, best Air Horse One in 4th. 2016 3 best Wait for Me in fourth. 2015, five tried best was Max Dynamite under Ruby in 4th rating 137. (that was when he was heard saying something(s) under his breath when Wicklow Brave jogged past under P Townend. Mind you he was probably even more cross two years later when he was on 11/1 shot Rennetti and Paul strolled past again, this time on Arctic Fire).

That means that the last 19 winners were 8 novices and 9 second-season hurdlers. Plus Ch'tibello and Arctic Fire. The latter had placed in this before and in a Champion Hurdle.

WEIGHT - Only five since 1960 have carried over 11-2 but having said that, nine of last 25 carried over 11st. State Man 11-1, Ch'tibello, Arctic Fire, Blowing Wind, Spirit Leader and Rooster Booster all carried 11st. All bar Arctic Fire started 12/1 or under. Blowing Wind came straight from Sandown's Imperial Cup. Spirit Leader and Rooster Booster were 1st and 2nd in a Tote Gold Trophy. Alderwood at 20s, his 11-1 was in a compressed handicap where bottom weight had 10-8. Bottom weight in 2022 was 10-6 Bottom weight in 2021 was the winner off 10st. Going back the previous three years has been 10-9 off 133, 10st oh 4lbs 127 and 10-5 0ff 133. Seems to go in and out of fashion.

TOP WEIGHTS - Arctic Fire at 11-12 first winner to carry over 11-8 since 1960. Beat L'Ami Serge 25/1 carrying 11-6. Last year best performance Ballyadam 5th under 11-4. In 2021 Aramon 8/1 2nd off 149 carried 11-11. As did We Have A Dream in 2019. Only the third horse to be placed with over 11st 8lb since 1979. Diakali impressed in 4th 2014 with 11-12. (Backed it up when beaten on the line by The New One in the Aintree Hurdle). Mulllins/Henderson theme? Fethard Player 2nd in 2016 carrying 11-6. Remiluc highest weighted placed horse in 2018 carrying 11-2.

RATINGS - State Man 141, Belfast Banter 129, Saint Roi tossed in off 137. Ch'tibello 146, Mohayeed 139. (Dan Skelton was all for pulling him out because of the ground). Arctic Fire's winning 158. Beat L'Ami Serge off 152. Previous 12 to him were rated between 128 and 139. Superb Story, also from the Skeltons, 138. 21 from last 24 rated between 128 and 144. (Ch'tibello 146, Fire 158, Sporazene 151) Eight off the last twelve between 134 and 139 but not four of the last six.

Ratings to get a run - Going back from State Man 134, 129 and winner, 133, 127, 133, 134.

RACING POST RATINGS - All bar State Man, Saint Roi, Ch'tibello and Mohayeed of the last 17 achieved their best RPR minimum of 129 on a left-handed track. Of those 17 all bar Arctic Fire achieved their best RPR within their last three runs. His was when 11/2 lengths second to Faugheen in the Champion Hurdle. Belfast Banter last time out behind Echoes Of Rain in Naas. Ch'tibello achieved his 158 when 3rd of 5 to Yanworth in a Xmas Hurdle, Mohayeed achieved his best RPR of 147 last time out when 6l third to Buveur D'Air in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton. Superb Story best RPR of 139 last time out in the Greatwood Hurdle. A Skelton stat.

Difficult to win from more than 1lb out of the handicap. Lots have tried and failed to do so since Prince of Bermuda last achieved this feat in 1980. (One no hoper from out of the handicap in the last 14 years). Belfast Banter was right on the 10st.

PRICE - Belfast Banter, although given a fair word by Simon Rowlands on ATR, was an unloved 33s. Stare Man a morning 4s to 11/4, Saint Roi, 8s to SP11/2 fav. People knew. Ch'tibello tipped up by Kealy and Segal in the Friday comic, a solid 8s in the morning, ignored by all, returned 12s. Mohaayed 33s, Arctic Fire 20s, Superb Story 8s (and Pricewise), Wicklow Brave 25s, Lac Fontana was 11s. Ted Veale 10s, Final Approach was 12/1. Used to not cross the 16/1 barrier. However going back 2012 Alderwood, 20s, '08 Silver Jaro 33s, American Trilogy and Thousand Stars also both at 20s. Four favs and two joint favs in the last 22 including Willie's pair. Desert Quest 4/1jf 2006, Last clear favourite before Saint Roi to win was Sporazene 7/1 in 2004.

Since '94 only Ted Veale, Master Tern and Silver Jaro have won this having been beaten favourite last time out. This century the best paying race in the Festival for backing beaten favs last time. Two from 51 have won - profit £12 for £1 stake. Silver Jaro at 50s profited from the Pyscho ride by P Carberry (That's mischief, remember Solwit, Bellvano, Very Wood, Nicanor amongst others). Three ran in each of the last two yrs, best Third Time Lucki 6th in 2021. 2020 six ran, best Buildmeupbuttercup in 4th. Two ran in 2019, best was Whiskey Sour 5/1 fav in fourth. Placed again. Both Ted Veale and Silver Jaro were Irish trained (sorry Jonjo). No BF last time winner now since 2013.

Irish trained winners - LAST YEAR ONLY 8 OF THE 26 WERE GB TRAINED. An Irish 1-3. In 2021 8 from 25 were GB. An Irish 1-2-4. 2020 - 11 of the 24 were trained in Ireland resulting in a 1-2-3-4-6-7. Pretty solid, you'd have to say. In 2019, 8 of the 26 IRE, best finisher Whiskey Sour 4th. In 2018, 11 of the 27 runners were between Willie Mullins, Gordon Elliott and Joseph O'Brien. Willie returned the best result with 3rd and 5th home. In 2017 Willie Mullins' Arctic Fire won, six IRE. In 2016 from 9 runners, only Fethard Player 2nd finished in the first seven home. In 2015 13 from the 25 runners were Irish Trained. Filled the first 6 places. W Mullins 1st, 4th, 5th and 6th. In 2014 only 2nd, 4th and 5th from 7 runners. 2013 Ted Veale won from Tennis Cap from 9 IRE 2012 Alderwood (8 runners), 2011 Final Approach (5 runners), 2010 Thousand Stars (6 runners), Silver Jaro '08 won from Psycho (7 runners), Pedrobob '07. Spirit Leader ’03 was first Irish trained winner since ’76. 11 winners in the last 16. Numbers going across increasing. The last five Irish trained winners had no recent Leopardstown form.

Speaking of domination, Willie Mullins has had 44 runners in the past 13. Six winners. Now top trainer ever in this Festival race. Five in each of the last two years, after State Man, Farout best in 9th. In 2021 best home Ciel De Neige in 9th, only his third most fancied. 2020 Five also came resulting in a 1-2-4. Saint Roi 11/2 fav, Thousand Stars 20s, Final Approach 10s, Wicklow Brave 25s, Arctic Fire 20s. Also seconds with Aramon 8/1, Arctic Fire 7s, Tennis Cap 11s, a third with Whiskey Sour and 4ths with Buildmeupbuttercup 16/1, Whiskey Sour 5s, Diakali 5s Max Dynamite 14s. Touch churlish to say that he has yet to have a Festival h'cap winner over more than 2m 5f. Hardly needs one.

Paul Nicholls used to be the man. 4 wins in the last 19. Used to be only home trainer able to hold the Irish hordes at bay. ’04 Sporazene, ’06 Desert Quest, '09 American Trilogy and 2014 Lac Fontana. Also ’06 Pirate Flagship 4^th ’07 Ouninpohja 2nd. 2012 Edgardo Sol, 2nd at 25/1, also finished 6th in 2013. Five outsiders ran in total over the last four years, well down the field on each occasion. To be fair, picked up the Betfair Hurdle 2020 with Pic D'orhy at 33s. Hacker Des Places.

N Henderson - 0 from 35 this century (First Street a good 2nd last year at 16s. Also We Have A Dream 2nd under a big weight). G Elliott 0 from 21 (Petit Mouchoir, from Cullentra, 2nd 2021 at 22s, Eclair De Beaufeu 4th. Clouted the last, pocket talking).

The current GB king of the County Hurdle is Mr Nicholls' ex-pupil, Dan Skelton, with three winners in the last seven. Ch'tibello, Mohaayed, and Superb Story. None were novices. Pembroke. All three winners given long breaks before this race, none seen since Boxing Day. Mohaayed was 7th in 2019 but the magic didn't work in the last three years. West Cork 4th last year, Third Time Lucki 6th 2021 both SP single figures.

Tony Mulllins (Willie's brother) trained both Alderwood 20s 2012 and Pedrobob 8s 2007. The latter was only an eight yr old second season hurdler.

Ruby Walsh is the most successful jockey ever with four wins. His finish on Final Approach 2011 was a cracker. But didn't win it again (or any other Festival h'cap for that matter). Paul Townend catching him up with three from the last eight.

BLINKERS, CHEEKPIECES etc - Five ran last year, best First Street 2nd In his usual hood. 2021 eight ran 2021, only Petit Mouchoir 2nd in his usual cheekpieces finished in the first eight. Three in 2020, all down the field. 10 wore headgear in the 2019 renewal, none finished in the first five. Three tried in 2018, all unplaced. 2017 Arctic Fire won in his usual hood. Apart from him the only one other blinkered winner in last 21 was American Trilogy, his second run in blinkers. In 2017, apart from Arctic Fire, five others tried, all unplaced. Eleven went to post in 2016, including three first timers, best Fethard Player, 2nd, in the hood he always wore. Nine tried in 2015, best finisher 5th. A massive 12 from 28 wore headgear in 2014 (No, I don't know if that's a record) best finishers Arctic Fire 2nd and Diakali 4th both in hoods.

29 of last 36 in first 4 on previous outing (Not '14, '12, '10 or '09) All the last seven. Do not get too excited about this stat.

THE SAINT ROI BOMB - First since Thumbs Up in 1993 not to have already run in a handicap. 75 had tried since '93. Not only that but Aramon in 2nd had never run in one before, either. Should have referred myself to the 'Willie Mullins doesn't give a monkeys about stats' stat. Last year State Man hammered a further nail into the coffin of this stat. Ran three further qualifiers last year, all down the field. Ran ran two qualifiers in 2021, best 11th.

Four of the last 18 ran 'well' in the Totesport/Betfair Trophy (plus Remiluc 2nd 2018 at 50s).

Lac Fontana and Remiluc won the Cl2 Handicap which finishes the card on Cheltenham Trials day. Nothing came here in 2020. Abandoned 2021 Hacker Des Places

No winner of the Dovecote that year has won a Festival handicap hurdle in the last 30 odd yrs. Don't think that many try.

No horse has won two of these. Can't see it happening this year, either.

DUBLIN RACING FESTIVAL (and associated races) - 2011 Final Approach won the Boylesports and this. 2013 Ted Veale 3rd at Leopardstown before winning here. 2014 Flaxen Flare, 5th here, was 2nd in the Boylesports. Silver Jaro had been 3rd in Dublin, two races before this. 2015 Boylesports Modem was 2nd but well down the field here. 2016 Henry Higgins Leopardstown winner unpl here. 2017 now the Coral Hurdle none of the first three home ran here. 2018 and in 2019 (now the Ladbroke Hurdle) three came from Leopardstown, all unplaced here. Off You Go didn't come here either year. 2020 Mr. Charles Byrnes' Thesedaysaregone won at Leopardstown, 3rd in the Coral Cup. Buildmeupbuttercup 5th and Embittered 6th at Leop, 3rd and 4th here. 2021 1st - 2nd - 4th - 6th came from Dublin finished 7th - 17th - 15th and 4th (Eclair De Beaufeu). Last year Call My Lyreen won in Dublin. Those that came finished 14th - 6th - Fell - 5th - 22nd.

COURSE WINNERS - Lac Fontana 2014 only the second horse after Master Tern (both second season novices) to win this as previous course winners since at least 1991. Both had won the same course handicap hurdle in January Hacker Des Place. Five big Cs last year, best West Cork, the Greatwood winner. 2021 only Strong Glance carried that chalice, 18th. 2020 Mohayeed only qualifier, 10th. Six course winners ran in 2019, none finished in the first six. Of the eight course winners to run in 2018, Remiluc went close in second. Arctic Fire had finished second twice in two previous Festivals but no C.

16 from the last 21 winners had no course placed form. Only 8 from the last 24 had actually run at a previous Festival. Arctic Fire by far the best course form of those. Another way is that 13 from the last 17 had no previous Festival Form.

14 from last 21 had all been beaten here before in a hurdle (all bar the most recent three of the past eight). Ted Veale, Alderwood, Final Approach and Spirit Leader had also not run here before. First season Irish novices unlikely.

Maiden hurdle at Cheltenham in October usually run on good ground has had an interesting history. '10 King of the Night won easy in Oct 'still right there when fell 4 out' in Sir Des Champs's Festival win. '09 The Jigsaw Man won four races after. In '07 race was won easy by Snap Tie who went on to finish 3rd in the Supreme Novices. 2012 winner Court Minstrel didn't run at festival but won G2 at Ayr in April. 2014 Lac Fontana did the double. Didn't work for four years then in 2018 Thomas Darby bt Elixir Du Nuts. 2020 in October Heaven Help Us bt Master Debonair and Fred. Reasonable novice form for both years. Top Bandit unpld last year. Fennor Cross from Deere Mark

Skybet Supreme Novice Trial at Cheltenham has produced American Trilogy and Lac Fontana. For Pleasure 40s ran well to finish 3rd last year. I Like To Move It unplcd last year. Fennor Cross from Ukantango.

Imperial Cup (the weekend before). Five winners of that event since 1990 ran in the County. Moody Man and Blowing Wind won under a big weight and Carlito Brigante finished second. Floyd also did the double in 1985. Last two Pipe trained Imperial winners Gaspara and Ashkazar took the easier route with the Fred Winter 4 yr old handicap. '09 Dave's Dream 7/2 fav here and unplaced. '11 Alarazi unplaced favourite here. No luck in the next three. 2015 Ebony Express won at Sandown and then finished 19th behind Wicklow Brave who had refused to go a yard at Sandown at 9/1. Didn't make me laugh at the time. 2016 Flying Angel 2nd in Imperial Cup then 2nd in Martin Pipe Conditionals. No good in 2019, abandoned 2020, 2021 Langer Dan hosed up at Sandown, then was unlucky enough to meet an aeroplane called Galopin Des Champs in the Martin Pipe. Last year Surprise Package hosed up at Sandown, then 6th here at 9s.

22 from last 28 had run at least 4 times that season (not Willie's pair only two runs, Arctic Fire, not at all, Superb Story, twice, Lac Fontana, three runs, Final Approach, just the two). This was Belfast Banter's 12th run since the 17th June. Wicklow Brave at least had started four races. Some in his own time. 30 of the last 35 winners all had at least 3 previous runs that season (State, Roi, Fire, Superb and Final Approach, the exceptions. Mullins theme there?). 16 of the last 27 had been out at least 5 times. Used to say 'battle hardened.' Not so sure now
 

All bar Willie's most recent pair of the last 25 between 4 and 19 total runs over hurdles. (State 3 in total, Roi only 2 in Ire, Banter 14, Ch'tibello has extended this stat from 17 to 19 runs. Mohayeed 9, Arctic Fire 17, Ted Veale and American T only 4). 13 from the last 17 no more than 12 runs over hurdles.

14 from last 25 ran in the last 35 days (not those that came direct from the Boylesports or Trials day, Not State, 45, Saint Roi 1st Jan, Mohayeed Boxing Day, Ch'tibello 8th Dec). Better to say only State Man and Belfast Banter of the last seven seen since 1st January. Belfast Banter 19 days. If State Man hadn't fallen at Limerick 26th Dec when about to win, I would have thought we wouldn't have seen him again, either.

3 of the last 21 winners carried a penalty (from small numbers, the last Crooks Peak 5lb ex 2019 in 20th).

WINNING CONDITIONAL JOCKEYS - 2018 Bridget Andrews (3) joined Katie Walsh (3) 2010, Jimmy Moffatt (3) on a famous win with Home Counties 1995, David Bridgewater (7) on Winnie The Witch 1991. (The latter two winning for their fathers). Five last year, best Conor Orr (3) on Colonel Mustard. Four in 2021, best Jordan Gainford (7) 2nd on the Mouchoir. Good ride. 2020 Five tried, best Mr Sam Waley-Cohen(3) 5th on Elusive Belle, picked off by the finishers. Seven tried in 2019, none better than 10th. Five others finished behind Bridget and Mohaayed, Harry Reed (5) in second, and Daniel Sansom (5) in fourth. Seven in 2017, best finisher JJ Slevin (3) in 6th. 5 in 2016 best David Mullins (3) on Fethard Player in 2nd. 4 in 2015 best Shane Shortall (5), 3rd on QuickJack. 4 in 2014, all unplaced.

David Mullins had already won a G1 Morgiana on Nichols Canyon, Katie had already won the 4 miler that week on Poker de Sivola, Jordan Gainford on The Shunter. This was Bridget Andrews' s first major success, though she had won a Cl2 handicap hurdle at Haydock.

Don't be betting with a bookie who doesn't pay at least 5th place. A lot will go six, maybe seven.

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