• Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase

    The last 13 winners raced here before

    Only two Irish trained winners in the last ten

    This century only Politologue and Sizing Europe hadn't already won that season

    Finians Rainbow only winner this century to have been BF last time out

    Only two winners this century not to have previous run after Jan 1st

    All winners going back to 2008 had already won a G1

    17 of the last 22 placed horses were already G1 winners

    All six back to back winners were the short priced jolly on the second win.

    15 of last 17 had run two or three times that season.

    Only one winner returned bigger than 11s since 1993.

    Only Badsworth Boy 1985 has won this three times. On the third win started odds on

    W Mullins has yet to win

    N Henderson has won five of the last ten

    H de Bromhead three from the last 11

    Summary

    Unlikely to be older than 9 unless previous winner. If a ten year old or older is priced under 10/1, to be placed. Will have won that season and should have been first, second, F or U last time. Has won over at least 2 miles 1 furlong. Has won a Grade 1 chase, is recently rated 160+ and had two or three this season. Won't be wearing blinkers. Will have won or been placed at the Festival before or a course winner. Should have won 40% of completed NH starts and ran at least 7 times over fences. Ran since Boxing Day. If good ground race to be run in about 3 mins 51 secs.  Not a beaten favourite last time. Shishkin, as last years Arkle winner to be at least placed. Definitely raced here before. Clarence House form very reasonable.

  • Honours Board

    Year ||| Form ||| Winner ||| Age ||| OR ||| SP ||| Trainer ||| Jockey ||| Last Race (No of days)

    2020||| 13 ||| Put The Kettle On ||| 7 ||| 156 ||| 17/2 ||| H de Bromhead(IRE)||| A Coleman ||| 3rd Leop G1 (80)

    2020 ||| 52 ||| Politologue ||| 9 ||| 165 ||| 6/1 ||| P Nicholls ||| H Skelton ||| 5th G1 Tingle Creek (95)

    2019 ||| 111 ||| Altior ||| 9 ||| 175 ||| 4/11F ||| N Henderson ||| N de Boinville ||| 1st G1 Clarence Hse (53)

    2018 ||| 1 ||| Altior ||| 8 ||| 170 ||| Eve F ||| N Henderson ||| N de Boinville ||| 1st G2 Betfair Ch (33)

    2017 ||| 315 ||| Special Tiara ||| 10 ||| 159 ||| 11/1 ||| H de Bromhead (IRE) ||| N Fehily ||| 5th Clarence Hse (46)

    2016 ||| 11 ||| Sprinter Sacre ||| 10 ||| 170 ||| 5/1 ||| N Henderson ||| N de Boinville ||| 1st G2 Desert Orchid (80)

    2015 ||| 311 ||| Dodging Bullets ||| 7 ||| 171 ||| 9/2 ||| P Nicholls ||| S Twiston-Davies ||| 1st G1 Clarence Hse (53)

    2014 ||| 12111 ||| Sire de Grugy ||| 8 ||| 169 ||| 11/4F ||| G Moore ||| J Moore ||| 1st G1 Clarence Hse (53)

    2013 ||| 11 ||| Sprinter Sacre ||| 7 ||| 179 ||| 1/4F ||| N Henderson ||| B Geraghty ||| 1st G1 Clarence Hse (46)

    2012 ||| 12 ||| Finion's Rainbow ||| 9 ||| 164 ||| 10/1 ||| N Henderson ||| B Geraghty ||| 1st G1 Clarence Hse (53)

  • Evidence

     

    AGE - Special Tiara joined Sprinter Sacre to be the first 10 yr olds to win since Moscow Flyer won at 11 yrs. After Politologue's late withdrawal, none of that age group ran last year. Or any of the 2020's five runner field. Gods Own at 11yrs PU 2019. Only five finished in 2018, Gods Own as a ten year old stole 3rd at 40s.

     

    Somersby 2nd 2015, Sizing Europe 2nd 2013, Big Zeb 3rd 2012, Moscow Flyer (win ’05) and Tuitchev 3rd ‘04 only horses aged 11 or over in last 22 years to have been placed. Moscow’s win at 11 first since from that age group since Skymas ’77. In the last 29 years, the winner's roll call reads aged 5yrs(1) 6(2), 7(6), 8(8), 9(7), 10(4), 11(1). Apart from Tiara, Sprinter and Moscow, no winner older than 9 since One Man '98. This century 46 horses older than 9 tried (other than the three winners). Only 4 of those started at less than 10/1, all of those four finished placed at least. Sizing Europe, Big Zeb twice each and Fota Island. Somersby finished second twice aged 10 and 11 at 14s and 33s.

     

    With Chacun Pour Soi (Altior last year) this age stat becomes news. Over the past 11 yrs there have been 98 total runners. 22 of those runners were aged in double figures. Two won. Eight others were placed. With two races under 8 runners there were 31 places available. So with 22 of the 98 runners aged in double figures or 22%. Achieving 10 places of the 31 places available to them, that's 32%. Seem to just outperform numbers.

     

    Master Minded first five year old to win. He, Voy Por Ustedes and Inkslinger the only 6 yr olds to win it. First run in 1959. Only 13 six year olds have actually run in this race since ‘88. One since Petit Robin 3rd '09. None ran last four years.

     

    Three seven yr olds winners in the last 12. 6 winners and 8 seconds from 36 runners in last 27 renewals. a 1-2-4 last year with Put The Kettle On from Nube Negra and Greanteen. Politologue from Dynamite Dollars RIP made it a Nicholls 1-2 in 2020. Defi Du Seuil ran a shocker. Sceau Royal only qualifier 2019 3rd at 16s. Min second in 2018 from three triers, Fox Norton similar in 2017, including Douvan at 1/4. None ran in 2016. Dodging Bullets was a 7yr old winner. Module 3rd in 2014. Sprinter Sacre and Sanctuare (4th) 2013.

     

    BETTING - Four winning favourites in the last nine Sprinter Sacre 2013, Sire De Grugy '14, Altior evens and 4/11 in 2019. In 2017 Special Tiara 11s followed Sizing Europe 10s, Big Zeb at 10s and Newmill's 16/1 success in ’06 as decent priced winners. Before that Deep Sensation 11/1 in 1994 highest priced winner since at least 1983.

     

    Between ’91 and ’04 only three of the 50 that started bigger than 14/1 got placed. Then Mister McGoldrick was 3rd in ’06 at 50/1 and ’07 placed horses Dempsey 20s and River City 33s. Module at 20s 3rd 2014, 2015 Somersby 2nd at 33s. 2016 Special Tiara 3rd at 16s 2017 Sir Valentino 3rd at 33s followed by Gods Own 40s 2018, Sceau Royal 2019 3rd at 16s. This race always tends to have small fields. (Largest field ever was 13 in 1999). Nine ran last year.

     

    Newmill is the only winner of this in the past 38 to be returned over 11/1.

     

    This century 19 horses beaten favourite or beaten joint favourite last time have run. None ran last two years. Finians Rainbow only winner in 2012 in that hash of a race when they had to miss the last fence. Sceau Royal qualifier in 2019 previously 2nd in the Kingwell at 11/10 fav.

     

    FORM - 34 of last 37 had won that season (exceptions Politologue beaten in Shloer Chase and Tingle Creek, Sizing Europe and Martha’s Son ’97 one outing - Fell). 30 from last 37 had been 1st or 2nd last time (Put The Kettle On 3rd at Leopardstown, Politologue 5th, Special Tiara 5th, Martha’s Son, Edredon Bleu 3rd, Voy unseated, Sizing Europe 3rd).

     

    All bar Put The Kettle On (3rd of 6), Politologue and Special Tiara since 1978 either placed last time or F or U.

     

    Only Special Tiara, Dodging Bullets, Sire De Grugy, Sprinter Sacre (first time) and Klairon Davis of the past 25 had failed to win over at least 2 miles 2 furlongs earlier in career. Special Tiara was never winning over 2m 2f. Sire did win novice hurdle over 17.5 furlongs. Sprinter Sacre previously 2nd in an 20 furlong Ascot Novice Hurdle. Klairon Davis had fallen early in his two attempts at longer distances. 18 of last 30 had won over 2 and 1/2 miles (Put The Kettle On, Politologue and Sprinter Sacre (2nd time) of the last nine).

     

    The last 19 had all won over at least 2m 1f. Hardly a shock. Special Tiara's only win over more than the 2m minimum was when 4th fav in a Ballinrobe beginners chase. Hard to believe.

     

    IRISH TRAINED - Since ’95, 8 winners. Klairon Davis, Moscow Flyer (2), Newmill, Big Zeb Sizing Europe, Special Tiara and Put The Kettle On have won for Irish trainers. Two winners in the past 10. Four ran last year, Kettle and Chacun. After the late withdrawal of Chacun in 2020, no runners. . But reasonable return from 62 runners over 26 years. 2019 Min best in 5th at 7/2, second at 5/2 2018, 2017 Douvan 1/4 injured in running. 2016 Un De Sceaux second at 4/6. 2015 Special Tiara (18s) best in third. Sizing flying the flag best in 4th 2014, sole representative in 2013 and 2nd. In 2012 the three Irish finished 2nd, 3rd and 5th. In 2011 the 4 Irish trained horses filled the first 4 places.

     

    Henry de Bromhead has become the Irish Machine here with Sizing Europe, Special Tiara and Put The Kettle On all winners in the last 11 years. Special Tiara also had two third places, Sizing Europe two seconds and a fourth. Been in that winner's circle a lot. In 2017 I was there and the smile on his face after Tiara won...

     

    Nicky Henderson has trained five of the last 10 winners. With Altior's withdrawal, he also had nothing running 2020. Sceau Royal in 5th, a bit squeezed for room last year. Perhaps not one of Darryl's finest.

     

    Paul Nicholls - 6 winners and 7 placed from 31 runners since 1999. Greaneteen 4th, 2021 a 1-2. 2019 Politologue improved to 2nd from 4th in 2018. Possibly thought he was going to win at the last. No runners for PN in 2017. Dodging Bullets broke that losing Festival chaser run of 81 runners stretching back to Kauto in 2009. Greaneteen

     

    W Mullins currently 0 -10

     

    Tingle Creek/Queen Mother double. Seven have done it this century, all bar four winners at Sandown have come here. Altior, Dodging Bullets, Sire De Grugy, Sprinter Sacre, Master Minded '09, Moscow Flyer '05, Flagship Uberalles '02 going back to Viking Flagship '95. All bar Dodging Bullets were Queen Mother favourites. 2012 Sizing Europe pipped on the run in by Finians Rainbow after the nonsense with the last fence. No double 2016 as Sire De Grugy finished last here. Willie placed Un De Sceaux well in 2017 to run away with the Ryanair. Altior didn't make the 2017 Tingle Creek, Politilogue only fourth here 2018 after winning at Sandown.

     

    The Tingle Creek Chase has produced at least one subsequent Festival winner from 15 of its last 21 runnings. Didn't last year or in 2018. Ten of last 16 winners of this ran at Sandown finishing 2121411115 there. 2020 Defi Du Seuil 2/5 missed an open goal for some unknown reason. Last year Politologue withdrawn at the last moment for some other unknown reason. Greaneteen

     

    All bar Politologue, Special Tiara, Dodging and Sizing of the last 25 winners had won more than half of their completed NH starts. Politologue 26 runs and 11 wins, Tiara a shocking 28 and 6, Dodging was 8 from 18, Sizing 10 from 23 (I admit Newmill had only 9 wins from 20 runs before his triumph but you do humour me each year). Let us say all bar Special Tiara had won at least 40% all NH starts. Put the Kettle On was 9 from 16.

     

    Last winners with only one previous run this season - Altior in 2018, Flagship Uberalles 2002 and Call Equiname 1999. Uberalles came from winning a Tingle Creek and Equiname won a rescheduled Victor Chandler h'cap at Kempton. Dynamite Dollars 2nd 2020 after one run. Newmill won after only one chase run that season. Nube Negra 2nd last year after one chase win and run. Those 1-1 over fences that season are 4 - 8 over the past 21 yrs.

     

    15 of last 17 had run two or three times that season. None of the last 20 ran in the last 30 days.

     

    Six from last 12 won the Desert Orchid at Kempton including Special Tiara. Bun Doran 3rd of 5 here 2020 at 33s. Shishkin

     

    Sprinter Sacre, Moscow Flyer 2003 and 2005, Royal Relief 1972 and 1974 are the only three to have regained crown. Moscow was 11yrs old and the 6/4 fav. Politologue

     

    16 of last 19 rated at least 160 and had previously won a Grade 1 race. Put The Kettle On 158, got 7lbs and had won the Arkle. Not Special Tiara but he had won two G1s and had just come down to 159 after two years in the 160s. Sprinter (second time) 170, Dodging 171, Sire 169. Last 20 winners had all previously won at least a Grade 2 and had no more than 4 outings that season. Master Minded 2008 the last winner to have yet to win a G1. Politologue was 165 and had won 3 G1s.

     

    22 from last 23 all had ran at least 7 times over fences. Sprinter (first time) and Finians Rainbow with 7 each had the least, all the rest had more including Master Minded first time. Politologue 19 previous runs.

     

    No mare had ever won this race. Until last year. This century only one other to run was Kario De Sormain 20s U at the 1st in 2006.

     

    No blinkered/cheekpieces winner in last 21. Cilaos Emery unplaced in his normal hood last year

     

    CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL FORM - Since 1959 there have been 12 back to back winners of this, six in the past 36 years. Only Altior and Master Minded in the last 24 yrs. Apart from those two great champions, last 13 to come back have failed to defend their crown. All those six back to back winners started the second year as the short-priced favourite. Put The Kettle On No Grand Annual/Queen Mother double since Kababatic ’91. Sky Pirate 

     

    29 from last 37 won or placed at Festival before, the best return for this stat in the 4 Championship races. (Altior has won a Supreme, and Arkle and two of these. You would say he knew his way around. Only Golden Miller and Quevega have won five Festival races. Put The Kettle On had won 4 times including the Arkle. Politilogue 2nd in this 2019. Special Tiara 3rd of 10 in 2016 version to Sprinter Sacre before his win. Dodging Bullets only 4th of 20 in a Triumph Hurdle but a three-time course winner so I'll give it to him). Not Sire De Grugy, had never previously ran at the Festival but had been 2nd in a November G2 Novice Chase, (Sprinter Sacre Arkle winner, Finians Rainbow was 2nd in 2011 Arkle). Two of the other eight non Festival placers were course winners. Master Minded (first win) and Newmill had never been there before. Big Zeb fell in this in his only other visit to Cheltenham in '09. However, in the past 34 yrs only Special Tiara and Edredon Bleu in 2000 have improved on a placed effort one year to win it the next. Edredon started 7/2 2nd fav when he won. Nube Negra, Chacun Por Soi, Greaneteen

     

    SHLOER CHASE - Put The Kettle On joins Sprinter Sacre 2013 as the only horses to do the double Nuba Negra. QM winners who had been beaten in the Shloer, 2013 Sire De Grugy (2nd in Nov) 2016 Special Tiara (3rd), 2020 Politologue (2nd). Fox Norton won in November 2016 to be beaten on the line in March by Special Tiara. Sceau Royal won in 2017, jumped the last in front in March, to be steamrollered up the run-in by Altior.

     

    THE TREBLE - Only Badsworth Boy has achieved it. His treble was completed in '85, he was a 10 yr old, had 4 opponents that day, started at 11/8 and strolled home. (Bobsline, his only real opponent and fav, jumped 3 out, and crumpled on landing, see Youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1beCTpn0w58  Frank Berry pretty cross afterwards). Of the five dual champions since, three returned to try and win this for the third time. Viking Flagship tried three times, finishing 9/4 second to Klairon Davis, 3/1 third to Martha's Son and 9/1 5th to One Man. Moscow Flyer came back as a 12 yr old to have a go, finishing a 5/1 5th to Newmill. Master Minded had two attempts, 4/5 4th to Big Zeb and 2/1f 8th to Sizing Europe.

     

    17 of the last 18 Arkle winners to run, made the first three. Nine won. Put The Kettle On, Altior and Sprinter Sacre the latest to do so. Not Un De Sceaux (2nd), Douvan unplaced. Footpad went to be unsuccessful fav in Ryanair. Duc De Genievres also went Ryanair. Shishkin.

     

    34 from last 37 either course winners or won over 2m2f. Not Special Tiara, not Sire De Grugy.
     

    All bar Politologue and Sprinter Sacre of the last 18 ran since the turn of the year. Paul Nicholls decided to put the 2020 winner away after a disappointing run in the Tingle Creek. Deserves praise as did John Hales for suggesting a change of jockey. Sprinter won the Desert Orchid Kempton on 27th Dec. Altior had a wind op and had been missing 287 days before his prep jog in the Game Spirit 2018. In 2019 he jogged around Ascot at 1/10.

     

    2021 Queen Mother Form. Last year was a bit of a mess, Chacun Pour Soi should have made more of, the mare won well. The first four split by 2l, Sceau Royal a touch unfortunate. 3 mins 57. 2020 Politologue never headed, 9 lengths, easy, good ride. Time 4 10 in really soft. 2019 - Altior powered away up the hill in 3 39. That was 8 secs faster than in 2018, He didn't win as easy as in 2018. In 2018 Douvan seemed to be running away when fell at top of the hill. Altior traded well above evens when outpaced down the hill but Politologue just was a bit too slow. In 2019 even Sceau Royal jumped the last in front. Apart from Min in 2019 for the third year in succession you could say that the Queen Mother field wasn't the greatest. In 2020 it was to be the battle of the big three. Which didn't happen.

     

    Since 2019 Hells Kitchen and Saint Calvados have won smaller races since but apart from Politologue, no horse beaten in the 2018 QM has won a graded 2 mile chase since. To be fair most years horses beaten in this come back to this to be beaten again. Not Politologue in 2020, obviously.

     

    2021 Arkle - Shishkin won well. From a limited field bott in numbers and ability? 3 mins 5 four seconds faster than the QM the next day. I know you should never compare different days. 2020 Put The Kettle On was never headed in very soft ground. Time 4 08 2 secs faster than Politologue and she carried 13lbs less. Will carry 6lbs more in this. Duc De Genievres didn't come in 2020 to the QM 3 59 was his Arkle time, same at Altior's the next day. In 2018 Ruby on Footpad (5/6) strolled behind Davy Russell on Petit Mouchoir and Aidan Coleman on Saint Calvados (11/4 2nd fav) as they cut their own throats in soft ground. 4 02 secs was a fair enough time with IMHO poor enough rides by the other two senior jockeys. Unlike 2017, the time was better in standard than the Supreme or the Champion Hurdle that year. Interesting. Footpad's 2018 Arkle time was 5 secs faster than Altior's QM the next day. In 2016 Douvan's Arkle time was 3 mins 49 and .3 of a second faster than Sprinter Sacre the next day. Un De Sceaux's Arkle time was 3 mins 51 secs, only one and a half seconds faster than Dodging Bullets the next day. The 2014 Arkle time was 3.47 two seconds faster than the QM the next day. The seniors now carry 6lbs more as from 2014, a change from what was always 3lbs. Sprinter Sacre and Captain Chris also outspeeded their seniors in their respective Arkle years with only 3lb less.

     

    Queen Mother Times: Put The Kettle On 3 57 Politologue 4 10, Altior 3 59 and 4 07, Special Tiara 3 55, Sprinter Sacre, 3 49. Dodging Bulllets 4.00, Proves little. The races are both run on the Old Course.

     

    THIS SEASON'S TIMES - 2m 1f Leopardstown Feb

    Shishkin from Energumeme 4 16 2m 1f Ascot soft,

    Nube Negra 3 52 Shloer Old Course Good

    Greaneteen 4 03 Sandown Tingle Creek G to S

    Shishkin 4 02 Kempton Soft

    Funambule Sivola 4 01 Game Spirit Newbury G to S

     

    BY KIND PERMISSION LINK to SIMON ROWLANDS SECTIONAL TIMES

     

    https://www.attheraces.com/blogs/sectional-spotlight/18-february-2022/sectional-spotlight-wednesday

     

    PLACED HORSES - Going back to Lord Dorcet in 1998 all bar Dempsey and Petit Robin of the 42 placed horses since were already at least Grade 2 chase winners. Nube Negra came from winning the G2 Wayward lad. (Some years this has less than 8 runners) Dempsey himself came here on the back of a facile Sandown Grade 3 success in February of that year. Petit Robin, Dempsey and Lord Dorcet had previously been placed in a Grade 1. 17 of the last 21 placed horses in this were all previous Grade 1 winners. Chacun odds on in third last year. Not Min only G2 2018. Not Module and neither of 2017's two, Fox Norton nor Sir Valentino, both only G2 winners before this. Dynamite Dollars G1 Nov Ch winner at Sandown

     

    BREEDING. 5 of past 8 winners under 8 yrs of age were French Bred. Have won 8 from the last 20. Dodging Bullets was allegedly bred in England by Frankie Dettori though I'm not sure how much he knew about it. Put The Kettle On, Altior and Special Tiara IRE bred, Politologue, Un De Sceaux and Sire De Grugy are French. Sprinter Sacre was FRE Bred from Network, a German Sire.

     

    JOCKEYS - 17 from last 20 had been previously ridden by the winning jockey on three other occasions. T'was Harry Skelton's first ride on Politilogue in 2020

     

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Wealth Warning.  Any decisions made (or not) or the basis of any information in this site are the sole responsibility of the reader.  There is no obligation on me to follow my own advice.  I take no responsibility for (but am keen to hear of) any factual errors.  (Bgault01@gmail.com, @gaultstats). Previous years ‘stats on stats’ would suggest we may identify a decent priced winner from manageable groups every three or four races.  It is believed that Savello (2014 Grand Annual) took from Golden Chieftain (2013 3m hcap chase) the record for breaking the most stats in a race.  Stands now at 8.  Cole Harden equalised with 8 in the 2015 World Hurdle.  Remember, after you have cursed/laughed at me and given up totally on trends, they will come back to bite.  Always happens.  Usually on Gold Cup Day. 

Beware GO SEA - Groundless Optimism Syndrome Encouaged by Alcohol.  A Cotswold condition very common at this time of year.