• Mrs Paddypowers G2 Mares Chase

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Summary

    W Mullins?

     

  • EVIDENCE

     

     

    2021 - Well, it was a Festival mares event after all. Willie saddled 4 of the 11 and had a 1-2 but with Coolreevy in her penultimate ever run but not with Elimay. A game winner, Colreevy was punted all day down to 9/4 with the jolly in second started an unexpected odds against 6/5. It was close. Willie had a 1-2-4 with Shattered Love finishing a respectable third for Cullentra.

     

    Colrrevy as a G1 winner carried a penalty and 11-7. Had gone from winning Thurles Mares G2 over 2m 4f, Elimay was a G2 chase winner and came from winning 2m Listed at Naas mid February. Carried 11 5. Four of the 11 mares were English trained, one finished, Chilli Filli in 6th. Time 5 16 in G to S. Not much more to say.

     

     

     

    The trend below refers to the Grand Annual before it was moved to the Tuesday. This G2 Mares Chase now takes its place at the end of the Festival. At the time of writing this reminds me of the old Cathcart. The stat is important (lol) in that it is the last opportunity for non-conditional professionals to get a Cheltenham Festival winner THIS YEAR. Because of that, they sometimes rode like maniacs.

     

    MOMENTUM - You would think that the winning rider in the GC would be too busy with presentations, photographs and interviews to pay any attention to his/her only other possible ride left in the day? No. Three of the final Friday 11 Grand Annuals were won by the GC winner. Paddy Brennan, Davy Russell, and Robbie Power. The latter on Rock The World said he just 'floated round'. Four others in the 11 GC winners didn't have a ride in the handicap. Only two Grand Annual winning jockeys in the last 11 finished unplaced in the GC an hour earlier, Tom Scudamore was last home on The Giant Bolster before winning here on Next Sensation for his brother. 2020 Davy Russell was still in contention before falling at the second last on Presenting Percy before jogging round here on Chosen Mate. As Pricewise always says, 'pay more attention to the pilots.' This century Paul Nicholls in 2007, Nigel Twiston Davies (with Paddy Brennan) 2011, Jessica Harrington (with Robbie Power) 2017, have trained the double. Since 2010 only three other GC winning trainers actually had runners in the Grand Annual. N Henderson won the GC in 2011 and 2013. In those years, as is his want, he saddled a total of 8 runners in the Grand Annual named after his father. Kid Cassidy came close in 2nd 2013 but no cigar.

     

    2021 - This theory didn't really with the Closutton domination here. Jockeys 1st, 2nd and 3rd in the Gold Cup finished 3rd, PU and 1st here, a slightly damp finish to Rachel's wonderful Festival.

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Wealth Warning.  Any decisions made (or not) or the basis of any information in this site are the sole responsibility of the reader.  There is no obligation on me to follow my own advice.  I take no responsibility for (but am keen to hear of) any factual errors.  (Bgault01@gmail.com, @gaultstats). Previous years ‘stats on stats’ would suggest we may identify a decent priced winner from manageable groups every three or four races.  It is believed that Savello (2014 Grand Annual) took from Golden Chieftain (2013 3m hcap chase) the record for breaking the most stats in a race.  Stands now at 8.  Cole Harden equalised with 8 in the 2015 World Hurdle.  Remember, after you have cursed/laughed at me and given up totally on trends, they will come back to bite.  Always happens.  Usually on Gold Cup Day. 

Beware GO SEA - Groundless Optimism Syndrome Encouaged by Alcohol.  A Cotswold condition very common at this time of year.