• Parnell Mares Novice Hurdle (The Dawn Run)

    Race distance - 2 miles and about a furlong. All carry 11st 2lbs apart from 4 yr olds - 10st 12lbs. Penalties for having won Class 1 or 2 hurdle.

     

    2016 - Limini capped a good day for Irish trained and short priced treble kings after Thistlecrack and Vautour. An Irish bred five year old, carrying 11 st 7lb trained by Willie Mullins and steered by Ruby Walsh. 8/11 fav. Not out since strolling the G3 Solerina Mares Novice Hurdle over 2m2f at Fairyhouse 46 days ago by 11 lengths.

     

    2017 - Lets Dance capped a great day for Ruby and Willie with another short priced treble after Yorkhill and Un De Sceaux. A nicer 4 timer if you had thrown in Nichols Canyon. FRE Bred five year old, carrying 11st 7lb ,the 11/8 fav. Not out since strolling the Nathaniel Lacy G2 Novice Hurdle over 2m4f at Leopardstown 46 days ago by 6 lengths.

     

    2018 - Laurina made it a Closutton treble. FRE Bred 5 yr old, carrying 11st 7lb steered by P Townend (Ruby injured the day before). 4/7 fav. Not out since strolling the G3 Solerina Mares Novice Hurdle over 2m2f at Fairyhouse 47 days ago by 11 lengths.

     

    2019 - Any fool would have realised way to go here was seven £5 singles on all of Willie's runners. (No, I didn't, don't be silly). Eglantine Du Seuil (FR), a fine ride by Noel Fehily got up from Concertista and Danny Mullins. Both 5 yr olds carried 11st 2 lb. Noel immediately announced his retirement, it took Danny to Flooring Porter two years later to get his first festival success. He's having a great time now. Unlucky here. SPs? 50/1 beats 66/1. Sometimes Willie in the novices/bumper just gets them here. Even he may not know which one is the one. Winner had previously won a maiden hurdle but hadn't been seen out since 3rd at Listowel in September. G Elliott trained finished 3rd and 4th. That made 4 from 4 for Clusotton. Epatante well beaten at 15/8 fav, PN's Posh Trish also well punted at 3/1. 2 BFs unplaced.

     

    2020 - World and his aunt all over Willie's Concertista (FR), once ATR's Tony Keenan @RacingTrends tipped her up the Tuesday before. The 2019 second to Eglantine du Seuil. A very decent third last time off 135 in the DRF 2m 2f 59k Mares H'cap Hurdle. 20s to 9/2. Darryl came off the Festival cold list (Lac Fontana 2014 County) with the easiest steering job imaginable. A conservative 12l. His first Festival win for the double green. A Willie 1-2-4. He wins the first five editions. Tipped up by Tony Keenan ATR antepost at 20s

     

    2021 - Not a great year for W Mullins novice mares. Even Skyace 4th sold for £600 by Closutton beat all of Willie's home. Winner 6 yr old Telmesomethinggirl @5/1 for Henry and Rachel on their perfect storm. Another tip from T Keenan. (Likes his mares, all over Dinoblue in 2022). Won by over 5l. Another one third off 128 in that DRF Mares h'cap behind Heaven Help Us. The first four home were trained by four other Irish trainers. Other to Willie, that is. Only five from 15 English trained, possibly still out there. Winner tipped up by Tony Keenan ATR at 12s.

     

     

    But the stats are

     

    Only Tintangle 3rd 2019 and Mighty Blue last year Mullhave placed wearing any sort of headgear in any of the six races. 8 BFs ran over the last two years, best Rayna's World 100/1 in third 2020. All Willies winners French bred.

     

    W Mullins has trained five of the six winners. The first three were simple. Limini, Let's Dance and Laurina. All started with the letter L and all short priced favorites. BHA ratings of 145, 147 and 144 respectively.

     

    Eglantine Du Seuil was next. But at 50/1. In 2019 he ran 7 mares, My Sister Sarah at 13/2 unpl only one shorter than 20/1. Had a 1-2-6. Concertista returns in 2020. A Closutton 1-2-4-5 from four runners.

     

    Last two winners finished 3rd in DRF Mares h'cap. The first three short priced winners had their previous run in the last week of January, two winning the the G3 Mares Novice at Fairyhouse. Eglantine du Seuil last seen 3rd at Listowel in October.

     

    There have been placed horses in this at 80/1,66/1, 50/1, 40/1, 100/1 and last year, 22/1.

     

    Alan King trained Dusky Legend to be placed twice and The Glancing Queen, 5th last year. Gordon Elliott has had Tingtangle and Barra placed.

     

    First four winners were five year old, the last two six yrs of age. First five began their careers in France, Telme, an Irish Bred. British Breds 0-18.

     

  • Honours Board

    Year |||Form||| Winner |||Age |||Weight||| OR||| SP |||Trainer||| Jockey||| Runners||| Last Race (No of days)

    2021 ||| 13113 ||| Telmesomethinggirl ||| 6 ||| 11-2 |||136 ||| 5/1 ||| H de Bromhead(IRE) ||| R Blackmore ||| 15 ||| 3rd £50k Leop M H'cap DRF (39)

    2020 |||433 |||Concertista||| 6||| 11-2||| 141||| 9/2||| W Mullins (IRE)||| D Jacob||| 22 |||3rd £50k Leop M H'cap DRF 2m 2f (39)

    2019||| 13 |||Eglantine du Seuil |||5 |||11-2||| - |||50/1||| W Mullins(IRE)||| N Fehily |||22||| 3rd Listowel Nov Hdle 2m (180)

    2018||| 11 |||Laurina |||5 |||11-7||| 144||| 4/7F||| W Mullins(IRE)||| P Townend||| 14||| 1st G3 F'house M Nov Hdle 2m 2f (48)

    2017 |||21111 |||Let's Dance |||5 |||11-7||| 147||| 11/8F |||W Mullins(IRE) |||R Walsh |||16||| 1st G2 Nathaniel Lacy Nov 2m 4f (46)

    2016 |||11||| Limini||| 5||| 11-7||| 145 ||| 8/11F |||W Mullins(IRE) |||R Walsh||| 16 |||1st G3 F'house M Nov Hdle 2m 2f (47)

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Wealth Warning.  Any decisions made (or not) or the basis of any information in this site are the sole responsibility of the reader.  There is no obligation on me to follow my own advice.  I take no responsibility for (but am keen to hear of) any factual errors.  (Bgault01@gmail.com, @gaultstats). Previous years ‘stats on stats’ would suggest we may identify a decent priced winner from manageable groups every three or four races.  It is believed that Savello (2014 Grand Annual) took from Golden Chieftain (2013 3m hcap chase) the record for breaking the most stats in a race.  Stands now at 8.  Cole Harden equalised with 8 in the 2015 World Hurdle.  Remember, after you have cursed/laughed at me and given up totally on trends, they will come back to bite.  Always happens.  Usually on Gold Cup Day. 

Beware GO SEA - Groundless Optimism Syndrome Encouaged by Alcohol.  A Cotswold condition very common at this time of year.