Gaultstats - Cheltenham 2023
The Only Trends You'll Need
'You know the drill. Take advantage of Bryan's obsession, then you do something good for a worthy cause.'
Rory Delargy
'Thanks as always Bryan. GStats led me straight to Maskada in the Grand Annual so I’m delighted to share the profits with your great causes.' - Adam on justgiving page.
'Bryan, you do amazing stuff, I wait every year for your wisdom...Great cause..thanks.' - Colm
In 2023 I am asking for donations to support The Samaritans. These wonderful volunteers try to help people who are going through a difficult time and who may have suicidal thoughts. The volunteers listen. At all times of the day or night. The next caller/texter/emailer could be from Bandon or Banbridge. Or from Exeter or Aberdeen. The Samaritans cover all parts of these islands.
My friend Wesley has been a volunteer Samaritan since 2007 and the unpaid North Down Branch Director for the last four years. His job entails everything. From performing his own weekend late-night shifts, to odd jobs, to volunteer recruitment, training and support. He has done the lot. 2023 marks the 50th Anniversary of the formation of the North Down Samaritans Branch and I'd like to help them. I know you've been good to me before but I'm asking again. Aiming for £2.75k. Please give what you can. Sterling or euro welcome. We had 14000 different PCs, phones etc accessing Gstats last Festival so I'm hoping you'll be generous. Justgiving links top and tail this bit and no monies go to me or to site upkeep. Please take a moment to read the message below from the Branch as to why they need donations.
'The volunteers of Bangor and North Down Samaritans freely give of their time and themselves to help those in need in our community. We have no paid staff. It costs around £30,000 per year to run our Branch. We get no government financial support, and have to raise the money each year to provide our services. We provide emotional support through our free helpline on 116123, through email, through online chat and in person to our callers. Any kind donations will be used to enable the volunteers of Bangor and North Down Branch of Samaritans to provide help and emotional support to our 20,000 callers each year, who are lonely, in despair or are feeling suicidal. It will also help us to recruit and train more volunteers and will expand our outreach to schools and communities so that people are not left to struggle alone. Thank you.'
https://www.justgiving.com/page/bryan-gault-1675348439917
BHA Bumper Ratings: 135 - A Dream To Share 129 - Fact To File 125 - It’s For Me 125 - Fun Fun Fun
A 2023 Gstats Podcast. I promise there will only be one. Thanx to Paul for the invite. https://open.spotify.com/episode/3g2JTScnwQ817mMI83Byef?si=8teRNRWhTuqaCZ2cQnKPDA&nd=1. Antepost chat, mainly.
285 of the 585 handicap entries are Irish Trained. In the 2022 Martin Pipe only five of the 23 runners were GB trained. No 2023 Pipe entry. A pity.
Advise no each way antepost in any handicaps. In 2022 minimum six places available on all handicaps day-of-race book. Eight from Skybet in the County.'....it's insane, the depth...I love this treasure trove of numbers...' Ross Brierley - In The Know RP.'Bryan puts in a great shift with the site every year for excellent causes. I’ve been using away at it.. and, as ever, it’s very good.' - Tony Keenan ATR'I can't recommend this enough.' - Rory Delargy
'Lots of interesting stuff on Gaultstats...certainly things I didn't know.' - Matt Tombs
'A shining galaxy of race by race stats..each hand-tooled..packed with more nuggets than a KFC warehouse in a chicken glut.' - surfnturfRP
'There's no place like this on earth.' Ruby Walsh. 'This doesn't happen to people like us.' Maxine O'Sullivan. 'I wish I had the words, this is just a magical place,' Rachael Blackmore. 'It's like an amphitheatre. 'One winner at Cheltenham is what it's all about,' Kim Bailey. National Hunt owners, trainers and jockeys dream about winning at this Festival. Being involved with a winner ensures an entry into the National Hunt Hall of Fame even if the race concerned may 'only' be the quirky Cross Country. Michael O'Leary 'It's a phenomenal destination. The experience of the four days is unbelievable.'
The higher the grade of race, the more likely that horses will repeat or improve on their last run. No higher grade than here. And since all concerned are doing their damnest to win, trends can emerge of those most likely (or not) to succeed.
Using Gaultstats
'If (we) could learn from history, what lessons it might teach us.' - Samuel Taylor Coleridge
I first attended the Cheltenham Festival in 1985 and have been collecting stuff about it since. It's just marvellous fun. After doing this for 35 plus years, I am confident that there are only two Cheltenham Stats Rules. They are 1. The beauty of any Cheltenham Stat lies solely in the eye of the beholder and 2. All of them will pass. It is only a matter of when. The former means that you decide what's relevant. If it has happened ten Festivals in a row, you might decide it's not going to happen this time. Fine. I have yet to find a rule book that demands how one should interpret Cheltenham Festival Trends. T'is your money and I won't get offended. Last March on the Betfair Podcast Vanessa had a right rant about 'stupid' Festival Betting Stats. Well, don't use them, then. Over the past decade I have continually laid a lot of short-priced Arkle favourites on the 'surely that run has got to stop sometime' theory. Look where it's got me.
Festival Big Beast Trends get shot down most years. Be prepared for that. Is it actually time for the Bula stat to go? No Supreme/Champion Hurdle double since 1971. Challow winner to take Ballymore? These are the thoughts that keep me awake at night. 2022 - FRE bred wins the 3m Grade 1 Novice Chase, the first since 2006. 2021 - Mare wins Queen Mother. Never happened before. 2020 - Saint Roi the first since Thumbs Up in '93 to win a County Hurdle on a first ever handicap run. Same stat torpedoed by State Man. 2019 - Espoir D'Allen, an unconsidered five year old, strolled home in the Champion Hurdle. But as one disappears, other 'rock solid' stats will take their place. Arkle favourites, anyone?
Horses identified in italics are being aimed to contest the race about which you are reading. As the countdown continues effort will be made to update races with confirmed runners and how they might fit in (or out).
The General Trends page covers information and musings that don't really refer to any specific race. This includes jockeys, trainers, how W Mullins is no respecter of Cheltenham stats, stats on Pricewise, course winners, Gault's Momentum Theory, Fate of the Favourites et al. It is hoped some year that this section may get shorter. Click on the links and share the concerns of family and friends as to how I spend six weeks at the start of every year. There's a quiz and other stuff, including a stats review of the 2022 and 2021 Festivals. 'Which Bookmaker?' can cause the odd irritation to Twitter bookmaker reps but you won't get the same anywhere else that needs sponsorship to survive.It's my site, and my decision not to have any ads. There's no app but should you wish, you can put a shortcut on your phone/PC. The Honours Boards will now scroll from left to right on the phone version. Small IT wins for Bryan in 2022. Hopeful this year that the site is tidier.
By 11 am each Festival day my selections for that day will be at the top of this page. Feel free to disagree.
Feedback positive and constructive welcomed at https://twitter.com/gaultstats or email bgault01@gmail.com. Reasonable theories will be researched. As I am old fashioned, I don't consider the Punchestown or Galway Festivals as being 'this season'. A big continued thank you to Ashleigh Watson at ash@coppersquareni.com for her work, without which, this wouldn't be here.
Good luck. I hope this tool brings you success, please don't forget to give. And let's not take it too seriously. It is meant to be fun.
As ever, a labour of love,
Bryan