RACING POST TIPPING.
Tom Segal is the most influential tipster in the UK and Ireland because his views change prices. Even at Cheltenham. It has lessened recently as little or no firms stand the early morning prices any more (and will only let you have a fiver on) but Tom is still important. I know the Festival is only a snapshot of their tipping year but it is the week when RP sells most papers and they always put the price up on Cheltenham Monday
How did he do it 2018? Well as ever, these things are somewhat of a curate's egg. In the RP his antepost selections are put on the same page as his 'on the day' selections. And this is probably one of the few sites that can tell you that Tom Segal hadn't tipped an antepost winner at the Cheltenham Festival since Windsor Park in the 2015 Neptune. But like all good Cheltenham stats, that has come to an end. In the 2018 Festival tipped Farclas at 16s for the Triumph (returned 9s), Balko Des Flos 14s for the Ryanair (returned 8s), Anibale Fly 33s GC (returned 33s) For 'on the day' tipping he just managed Mister Whitaker 13/2. I would suggest most folk don't bother with antepost and would not have been totally enamoured with Tom's lack of daily success but that's not his fault. Including antepost I counted 43 tips in total this year. I'll give him +4 units for Anibale Fly. If you have gone over a cliff with him, small loss on the week.
2017 was Tom Segal's best tipping success at the Festival since at least 2013. A total of 42 were given both antepost and 'on the day'. No antepost winners as said but made a profit all the same. Winning selections were Tiger Roll (advised 16s, returned 16s) Apples Jade (9/2 returned 4/1) and Road To Respect (22s returned 14s) Rock The World (14s returned 9s). A decent return, well done. Was perhaps unlucky with Singlefarmpayment 10s to 5/1 fav and Pendra 18s. In the RP the next Sunday he likes to reflect on his week. Last year it was 'travelling comfortably after 1st, blundered badly 2nd, looked to be in trouble 3rd, but late headway and stayed on all right close home.' In 2016 he tipped 39 horses and gave 2 winners. There may have been three or four nrnbs in the 39 but about £17 adrift on level stakes. (I don't count NRNB, I don't buy the paper to get a tip for a horse in a race it is unlikely to take part in. And bookies now that if it doesn't run you will leave your money in the account and bet on something else) In 2015 he returned Windsor Park 12s ante post Neptune and a relief grasping Darna 40s for the Mildmay. He had a winnerless annus horriblis in 2014. We have all done that. In 1988 my chum Robin and I did not have a successful week. A real 'mare. In fact, he was 0 for 17 coming to the last race of the Festival, the County. He went large on the 16/1 shot Redgrave Devil. The Racing Post site says the horse was 'held up, third when fell last'. I have to disagree as that is far from my memory, we were standing beside the last hurdle. It was more like, 'inside, tracking leaders, going well, led approaching last, going easily, jumped last two lengths in front, crumpled on landing.' I swear. Afterwards there wasn't much chat between us for a while. Between us we had just enough money left for either some decent food or a few beers. Well, both of us could afford to miss the odd meal.
I digress. What about the rest of the Racing Post team in 2018? The straight talking Paul Kealy had 23 selections over the four days 2018. PK deserves the same billing as Pricewise and nowadays I do tend to turn to his page first. Always responds politely to positive comments on Twitter, unlike his chum, big Tony C. Last year started well with Mister Whitaker and Coo Star Sivola both tipped ew which I found a bit odd at their prices 8/1 and 5/1 fav, Wednesday it was only Black Op ew 10/1 small beer from 5 selection, Thurs back with Missed Approach ew 10/1 and on Friday, Farclas 9/1 and Anibale Fly ew. Paul and Tom do tend to agree a bit these days. Never mind, I make that a very decent 12 pt win over the 23 selections. Well done. In the Tuesday column he finished with chat about having 'one Guinness or ten'. In 2017 kicked off with Tully East (advised 16s) and finishes in profit with Supasundae (20s) but didn't kick on over the final two days. In his Friday column 2017 he chatted about overindulgence and said 'if I don't win, I hope you do.' A wee bit maudlin, PK?
THE REST OF THE TEAM. Steve Mason RPRs continues to tip short priced favs. That's what RPRs are about, tipping mostly favs. His biggest successes of the week was Rathvinden and Native River. Believe him the only one to tip Native River but losing week, again. Pietro Innocenzi had responsibility for Bankers or Busters and the spread betting tips. Bankers or Bust ended up him being correct seven from 11. Not bad at all. Three losers on the Spreads but Wholestone bought at 5, third place got 20, profit 15 brought him back from a nightmare. I have looked with fear at the RP Spreads Festival selections for years. I can't remember them ever finishing in profit.
My nemesis, Kevin Morley, the Trends King (that picture still makes him that young He must be older now.) had Footpad, Buveur D'Air and Altior. A losing week. Its difficult when you can only make one selection in bold. Seems a nice chap, mind you. But lets shout it from the rafters, I enjoy the great Gerald Delamere and his Quite Interesting pages and I am pleased to announce that his banner headline on Wednesday was 'Bleu Berry should be ripe after belated reappearance' 20s, what a tip. No, of course I didn't. Good week all round for GD with Coo Star, Percy, Delta Work. Well done, sir. Followed up a decent 2017, if I remember correctly, Sizing John and Rock The World amongst other. God, I can even remember Gerald Delamere's tips from two years ago. Tony O'Hehir gave Footpad, Percy, and Sayo as an 'under the radar' but if an Irish tipster can't tip you Irish winners when we win 17 of the 28 races, Jesus.
In defence of the team, and I know I say it every year, I always think that it is only when you see 20 of them charging off at the start of the Supreme Novices that you will remember, this is difficult.
The Tom Segal antepost portfolio for 2019 includes Espoir D'Allen 25s Ch Hurdle (Tom's not running shy of 5 yr olds),Min 10s ( QM, he had to tip something against Altior), Clan Des Obeaux 9s, Anibale Fly 33s GC, Midnight Shadow 14s Stayers, hmm, Topofthegame 8s (RSA), City Island 33s (Ballymore) Al Dancer (a handicapper) 10s, Mister Fisher 10s (both in Supreme Novice) Top Notch 12s, Aso 25s (Ryanair) Le Richebourg 7s, Paloma Blue 20s (Arkle), Tiger Tap Tap 12s (Triumph Hurdle, now expects 'Sir Erec to start odds on'). 10 February, I wrote here 'Not convinced about some of these, think City Island needs to be Destriero.' Shows how much you know, Bryan.
Click on oddschecker.com at 8.01pm the instant after the Pricewise selections are released online and you can watch the prices shrink. All bookies shrink prices if they think they are about to be knocked over. Segal selections tend to be well punted Day 1. (Singlefarmpayment 10s to 5/1 fav 2017, Mister Whitaker last year) The longer he goes without a winner, the less frantic it becomes.
Cheltenham Festival Guide. Was with Weatherbys, now Matt Tombs has been headhunted by Racing TV to produce it. So Weatherbys have then employed Paul Ferguson to produce their own. I was pleased to see that Matt Tombs kept up the standard that Paul Jones had maintained for all those years. I have every one of the editions looking at me as I type this. May be not sure about Matts 'Freshometer' now. Willie Mullins regularly sticking holes in stats about number of days since last run. Enjoy the reads and each versions have many points that I would never have thought of. The profit/loss make it easier to make money rather than (dare I say it) my own ordinary stats. Last year he gave solid arguments for Kilbricken Storm 33s and Le Prezien 15/2 weeks before the event. Not easy to do. Have suggested to him that maybe a paragragh explaining the profit and loss system would not go amiss. In his 2018 version he has kindly given Gstats a full page advert for Marie Curie UK. A gentleman. Go and buy it. It will be great value with Lydia Hislop, Johnny Ward and Tom Stanley amongst the contributors.
The Weatherbys version is being sold as 'The Original', their big hitters include Rory Delargy and The Master himself Mr Paul Jones, When asked for what angle he was composing said 'I'm writng a piece on the biggest changes in the trends in the 20 yrs since writing the first guide.' Wow. Can't wait. Just hope there are enough trends and stats to go round!
Sean Graham's Belfast Preview Night - 4th March 2019. As informative an evening as I have ever witnessed at what is now a well run and popular event. Its a pity the tech let them down a bit last night but we've all seen the races before. A good night and the Grahams deserve a lot of praise. Gstats continue to adorn the programme. Casey and Elliott did not spar as can happen, it was more, 'What do you think Gordon? No, no, after you, Davy.' 'Does this run, Davy?' etc. Gordon slapped the Couch down on occasion, 'wouldn't know a soft lead if it hit him on the head.' The Couch struggled to the stage on crutches which would suggest this gig pays well. His best received joke of the night was slagging Gary O'Brien about the rubbery? Racing TV jackets. Something about being very popular in certain nightclubs in Hamburg, Well over my head. Gary keeps the night moving.
All the main G1s are covered in my Twitter feed, these would be the summaries for each of the G1s discussed. DC David Casey, GE Gordon Elliott, SF Sean Flanagan, Gary O'Brien GOB, Brian Graham, RG Ronan Graham, RH Richard Hoiles. C- Mark 'The Couch' Winstanley.
Supreme - A general all round dislike for the chances of Al Dancer. GE 'neither of his should be good enough to win.' C big Angels Breath fan, the rest thought he needed two and a half miles. RH liked Grand Sancy, If rain DC said both Klassical Dream and Aramon would run, but didn't really know, a theme of his for the evening.
Arkle - RH thinks G to S too soft for Lalor. DC Cilaos Emery definitely out. Weren't any Lalor fans on stage, all said too short. GE Hardline a definite runner, easier ground should suit but he's a big fan of Duc De Genievres. Says jumped well at Gowran. DC - 'in normal year, Duc wouldn't win, well behind Cilaos in the pecking order. SF keen on Us and Them, good form, big price.
Sean Flanagan - An interesting man to listen to on his Belfast Debut. Sir Erec 'a jet, only horse that can beat him is Band Of Outlaws and he's going to win the Fred Winter.' Gordon's top weights don't run in the Ultima, but happy that Tout Et Permis can carry 11st 12. Will run. Road To Respect plenty of pace, will run big race in Ryanair, if that decision made.
Richard Hoiles - Lucky 31. Benatar in the Plate, Bouvreuil in Grand Annual, Early Doors Martin Pipe, Monestrel in the Fred Winter (Nick Williams a good record in this, RH alleges horse didn't try an inch at Taunton), Notwhatiam (RH NAP) in Pertemps. Being going here two decades, never remember any of his tips ever winning. (Also not Richards finest performance in Belfast. 800 nearly completely male audience do not want to hear. 'I've no opinion', 'Can't see a bet in CH', 'Gods Own ew w/o Altior'. Its the Festival, son, get an opinion, the Couch may be an ejjitt, but dogma is popular.)
Gordon Elliott - Gary went through each race with him but both forgot about Tiger Roll (NAP) 'til the end. 'No horse is a certainty in a 3m 6f Cross Country, but he is.' Close Bros, runs four, Campeador is mad beast but his best chance. Some engine. (Heard this before?) In the 4 miler he runs Gun Digger, wanted to run Champagne Classic but Mr O'Leary said no. He runs in RSA, Gordon says horse has no chance. In the Coral Cup Gordon runs three, Cracking Smart, Farclas and one other, he couldn't remember. Likes Cracking Smart, back from a kissing spine op, has improved since last run.'
Fred Winter, 'Lethal Steps his best, flat rating 108, needs a fast pace to settle, should be cutting through them at the end'. Pertemps, 'Sire De Berlais, this has been the plan for a long time, nice weight. Also likes A Toi Phil, not the biggest, but one of those horses that runs well in G2/G3 without reaching highest level'. Seemed sweet on him. Nothing in Mares Novice good enough. Kim Muir. 'Keen on Measureofmydreams at a lot bigger price than he is now, JJ Codd rides. His jumping sometimes lets him down.' Bon O'Neill will be on Its All Guesswork. His main hope in the County will be Éclair De Beaufeu, 'should he get in'. In the Martin Pipe, runs Dallas Des Pictons, Cartwright, Defi Bleu, and maybe Galvin. And I think Gordon had a good night, well refreshed.
Hope this helps, Bryan
All over by 1115. I enjoy it. It has become a very smooth operation and the Grahams are to be complimented. The panel seem at ease apart from Gordon slapping the Couch down every so often. At 7.15 we were knocking the doors down to get in. Packed.
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