Gaultstats - Cheltenham 2026
The Only Trends You'll Need
'You know the drill. Take advantage of Bryan's obsession, then you do something good for a worthy cause. Can't recommend this enough.' Rory Delargy
Hello, I'm back. Needed a project.
Supporting the Irish Injured Jockeys Fund. Link below for donations. All gratefully received. Thanx.
https://www.idonate.ie/fundraiser/bryangault1
McHughs, Drogheda Preview Night Summary 2nd March. See tab top right.
https://www.attheraces.com/blogs/kevin-blake/24-february-2026/the-kevin-blake-take
Kevin Blake on the Irish H'cap Ratings. Always an important view.
In 2025 nine of the 12 handicap winners came from the market front four.
No headgear-wearing winner of the Queen Mother this century.
Flakey Dove (1994) the last horse to win the Champion Hurdle having been unplaced in it the previous season. Brighterdaysahead
'The Cheltenham Festival is our biggest stage and I want to be winning there.' - Sean Bowen
'I'd give back 50 winners for just one at the Festival.' - Ollie Murphy
'....it's insane, the depth...I love this treasure trove of numbers...' Ross Brierley - In The Know.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YYkripGcYA8&t=2545 Minutes 37 to 42 inc. I'll die a happy man.
'Bryan puts in a great shift with the site every year for excellent causes. I’ve been using away at it.. and, as ever, it’s very good.' - Tony Keenan
'Lots of interesting stuff on Gaultstats...certainly things I didn't know.' - Matt Tombs
'A shining galaxy of race by race stats..each hand-tooled..packed with more nuggets than a KFC warehouse in a chicken glut.' - surfnturfRP
'Shamefully my first time donating despite your site being possibly my most viewed. A great cause, and to the first of many donations in the future' - Robert on justgiving page.
'Bryan, you do amazing stuff, I wait every year for your wisdom...Great cause..thanks.' - Colm
WHY TRENDS AT CHELTENHAM?
'If (we) could learn from history, what lessons it might teach us.' - Samuel Taylor Coleridge
The higher the grade of race, the more likely that horses will repeat or improve on their last run. No higher grade than here. And since all concerned are doing their damnest to win, trends can emerge of those most likely (or not) to succeed. Won't happen anywhere else.
Using Gaultstats
The Jockey Club made big changes to the Festival in 2025. Remember that. Caveat emptor, please.
The only two site rules. If you are a regular, you probably know them by now.
1. The beauty of any stat lies solely in the eye of the beholder. This means that you, the reader, decide what is relevant. If it has happened ten Festivals in a row, you might decide it's not going to happen this time. Fine. I have yet to find a rule book that demands how one should interpret Cheltenham Festival Trends. T'is your money and I won't get offended. I'm not shoehorning anything to push you towards any particular horse. Paul Kealy 12th December 2025 - In The Know. 'I would never not back a horse based on that stat' when I posted that Poquelin 2009 was the only fav to win the December H'cap Chase since 1997. Fair play, sir.
2. All will pass. It is only a matter of when. Festival Big Beast Trends get shot down most years. Be prepared to face scorn. Headgear wearer wins Supreme. Goodbye to Flown 1992. Challow winner takes Turners. Langer Dan wins back to back Coral Cups? That can't happen. 3m G1 Novice Chase winner Fact Or File comes straight from bumpers? I'm sorry, no, no. The Bula stat, who was Bula, laughed Constitution Hill in 2023. But as one disappears, other 'rock solid' stats will take their place. Tongue ties in the Pertemps? You don't win a GC having run in heavy ground that season? Another 5 yr old has a go at the Arkle?
Horses identified in italics are being aimed to contest the race about which you are reading. As the countdown continues effort will be made to update races with confirmed runners and how they might fit in (or out).
The General Trends page continues to cover information and musings that don't really refer to any specific race. This includes jockeys, trainers, how W Mullins is no respecter of Cheltenham stats, stats on Pricewise, course winners, Gault's Momentum Theory, Fate of the Favourites et al. I did succeed in making this a little shorter in 2025. I hope that trend to continue. Click on the links and share the concerns of family and friends as to how I spend six weeks at the start of every year. There's a quiz and other stuff. 'Which Bookmaker?' can cause the odd irritation to X/Twitter bookmaker reps but you won't get the same anywhere else that needs sponsorship to survive.It's my site and my decision not to have any ads. There's no app but should you wish, you can put a shortcut on your phone/PC. The site does work best on a PC/laptop. The Honours Boards should scroll from left to right on the phone version. I'm unhappy that the Honours phone version is not as tidy as the PC but my 'Happiness' tech people tell me there is little they can do.
By 11am each Festival day my selections for that day will be at the top of this page. Feel free to disagree.
Feedback positive and constructive welcomed at https://twitter.com/gaultstats or email bgault01@gmail.com. Reasonable theories will be researched. Being old fashioned, I don't consider the Punchestown or Galway Festivals as being 'this season.' A big continued thank you to Ashleigh Watson at ash@coppersquareni.com for her work, without which, this wouldn't be here. And to John, for his excellent voluntary proofreading.
Good luck. I hope this tool brings you success and profit, please don't forget to give. And let's not take it too seriously. It is meant to be fun.
As ever, a labour of love,
Bryan
Toals Preview Night 27th February Clayton Hotel, Belfast
Bigger venue and crowd this year in the back bar of the Clayton Hotel in Belfast. A well run evening. Sean Toal greeting everyone. Same panel as 2025. Pamela Ballantine MC ably supported by Kevin Blake (KB), Bryan Cooper (BC), Tony Keenan (TK), and Archie Devlin (AD). Archie is a racing columnist from the Irish News. Pamela was having fun, the mikes wouldn't work properly at the start, so she likened it 'to a Sinn Fein Press Conference.' Hmm. Kevin, always an entertaining and engaging wordsmith. Tony, passionate and knowledgeable, not a Cromwell fan. Both have donated to Gstats causes which is pretty cool. Young Bryan (still looks like a child) more confident than last year. Has come on for a run ot two. Started at 8pm, we had a break for 20 minutes in the middle and finished at 10.45 pm. There should be more like it. (My bits in italics).
First thing - chat on Constitution Hill 'right decision', says KB, (I agree) and Mark Walsh being upgraded. 'Let's not feel too sad for him, he'll be fine.' was the general view.
The Toals Bookmakers Cheltenham Specials on the big screen. 3/1 treble WPM at least three winners, GE two, Henry de B one. 2/1 treble WPM top trainer, Paul Townend top jockey, Ireland win Prestbury Cup. 2/1 WPM to have a winner each day. 6/4 JP to have more than five. If history was to repeat itself, some of that could be seen as value. £100 max bet for each. You can open an online account and get them, should you wish. https://www.toalsbet.com/
Tuesday - TK - first year in a long time that WPM doesn't have a standout in the Supreme. Says that D Casey not a fan of King Rasko Grey. TK likes Idaho Son ew. KB, as Joseph's representative, wasn't overly bullish about Talk The Talk. Joseph and he were watching together at the DRF, felt he had 'no chance' three out, so pleasantly surprised with the win. Closing sectionals were great. Someone felt Mighty Park jumps to the right. (Hard to know after one run). BC a El Cairos fan. Seems they were doing 38mph coming down the Thurles straight. AD made an Oldpark Belfast joke.
Arkle - BC not a Coolio fan, likes Lulamba. AD thinks it a stayers race, gives Jax Junior a squeak. TK the DRF 'was a war'. 60 lengths faster than the Jacobs Ladder race later that afternoon (and he has just won a Navan G3). Steel Ally for him. KB Lulamba over Kopek. It's obvious GE doesn't want to go to Cheltenham. Thinks Romeo Coolio might just step on a stone or something. Tells us if a horse is pulled out 'off feed' or 'allergies' just means trainer doesn't want to run.
Champ H - KB gives the 'low hanging fruit' talk. 'She has to run.' 'WPM doesn't have a CH challenger this year. 'Just run the effing horse.' You get the drift. TK - it's a poor race, Poniros ew. BC is a BDA fan. Is her stabling away from the track a gimmick? Feels Nicky H will feel a bit sick if there's low sun and they miss three hurdles. AD - Alexie ew (One point from me, Lossiemouth has a lot of miles on the clock, 17 hurdle runs. I can't find a horse that won its first CH with so many. Even Hurricane Fly regained his title on his 18th hurdle run.)
Wednesday- Turners - TK. As with Supreme atm Mullins no clue what is his best. Made an interesting case for Zeus Power trained by Joseph. 'Wouldn't put you off him, going in the right direction' from KB but not a totally ringing endorsement. Also likes Road Exile. KB a I'll Sort That fan. Pound for pound Declan Queally is one of the best trainers. Thinks the price will hold 'as the English are slow to catch on.' Pamela checks for any English people in the audience. None. Only two ladies in attendance. (God help them). BC - his father's Shuttle Diplomacy a sound recommendation. And so he should be. Form is there for all to see.
Brown Advisory - BC likes Kitzbuhel 'if you can forgive him that mistake.' Impressed with the Kauto Star win. (Jockeys never know their stats). AD Wendigo, KB Oscars Brother trained half a mile from Golden, Tipperary where Kevin lives. Believes Final Demand to be a 'windy hoor' 'folds up like a deckchair.' Kaid d'Authie is a massive horse , 'big stride length, a hulk of a thing'. Should be shorter. TK disagrees - 'We've seen this Willie movie before.' Worried about Henry de B's form. 'It's just so patchy.' Sixmilebridge goes novice h'cap chase - BC.
QM - BC all over Majborough. Fair point from Archie, 'Will Maj remember the problems jumping Cheltenham?' TK chatted about the DRF chase winners all finding better line/ground in the middle of the track. Kevin tips Il Etait Temps 'because wacky things happen in Queen Mother Champion Chases.'Never a truer word.
BUMPER - BC - Keep Him Company, TK - The Mourne Rambler ridden by Colin Keane. Likes the Xmas win. KB hates the Bumper. Goes through a list of Flat Jockeys who rode in it. Says that each of them came in afterwards and said 'I'm never riding in that effing race again.' They thought it madness. AD Low Kick fan, not entered.
Thursday - Bambino Fever all the rage in the Mares Novice. Moving onto the Stayers, Kevin gives his Annual Belfast Tip for Home By The Lee. The horse's fifth attempt in the race. Would be a stats killer. (However, I've taken the 40s ew. The Gowran win stands up and if Jack Kennedy does what he says he's going to do on the fav, you will need to stay this year). Last year, Kev says Joseph had him 'really hopping' and unlucky to be BD. 'He's an effing hooligan, slow and lairy, but could hit the frame.' TK tips another English horse, Ma Shantou. 'I think this the most difficult Festival in years.' It is if he's tipping a lot of GB horses. KB warns against Kabral De Mathan 'A fiery oul hoor who will pull the arms out of the jockey.' (Unlikely to stay, I think that meant, Kevin did seem to swear a lot this year).
TK not a Ryanair fan. 'A disgrace of a race'. Another low hanging fruit chat about Fact To File. 'JP doesnt need to win another Ryanair.' Markets would however suggest that's where he going. Wins. KB says Banbridge may go to Aintree. As will Solness btw. No other strong views recorded. (I've backed JPR One ew. At least he runs).
Friday - Triumph -BC Proactif. TK likes Mon Crouset, backed at 100/1. Ploughed through the second last when about to win, and the form looked reasonable (The 5th won the first at Navan Saturday).
Gold Cup - KB says cheekpieces will help Galopin Des Champs. BC agrees, AD likes Haiti Couleurs. TK states that 'Patrick has never ridden a Festival Winner over obstacles against the professionals'. Didn't know that, he did steer Gaelic Warrior to victory in the Aintree Bowl, mind you. TK ''On the fourth day the Lord rose and brought with him Inothewayurthinkin.' Funny. Finishes with 'I will puke if he wins and I haven't backed him.' Hopes it's not a Cromwell plot. KB a good word for Jango Baie. Threw out to the crowd the question about the three GC winners who ran in the Arkle. Your correspondent the only person present to get Sizing John. Quietly smug as he is name checked by the panel.
Handicaps - TK strong word for Supremely West 'joke of a ride at Cheltenham when fav and those excuses to the Stewards..' and C'est Different in the Pertemps. 'Still has 10lb in hand' says Sam Thomas. Admits to having decent prices on the two. KB -Joseph runs three in the Fred Winter, 'all trying for their lives.' Kevin likes Glen To Glen 'more potential' Joseph would rather have Kizlyar 'better handicapped.' He is No 41 so may have difficulty getting in. Joseph has run a total of 12 horses in 6 Fred Winters and won three of them. And KB says Wrappedupinmay needs help to get a run. Not guaranteed.
KB then chatted about what it means to Joseph. He sends horses all over the world but 'Cheltenham is huge for him. Their whole NH season is geared around it.' Nice to know. He ran 12 in total last year, got money back on six of them. Yet to win anything other than a handicap hurdle. But maybe that's cruel. Has won a KG.
Think that was about it. Going to another one on Monday with David Casey, Busty Almond and Keith Donoghue. Looking forward to that. Hope to post scribblings here.
Don't forget to give, now.
Bryan
https://www.idonate.ie/fundraiser/bryangault1
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