AGE - Global Citizen 'led, prominent' joins Croco Bay, the gallant 'always prominent' 12 yr old, to became the 5th winner of this of the last 26 to be aged 10ys or older. Global Citizen was the only horse aged in double figures in 2022. And he was the only double-figure finisher in 2023 a gallant 3rd. Nothing above a nine year old ran last year. Nothing older than 8 yrs in the first 11 home 2021. Four elders in 2020, Theinval 5th. Had been placed in this twice before. Croco and Gino Trail both unplaced at age 13 yrs. Six elder geldings in total tried in 2019, next best to Ben Case's old boy was ninth. In 2018 nine qualifiers, again Gino Trail an 11 yr old in 2nd and Top Gamble another Kerry Lee inmate and 10 yr old in third. In 2017 four ran best Croco Bay in 5th, only 10 yrs old then, but getting a sighter, obviously.

Placed ages last year went 9-8-7-7, 2023 it was 7-6-11-8. 2022 10-8-7-8, 2021, 8-7-8-7. In 2020 they were 7-6-7-6. There were only 7 aged under 8 yrs in the 18 strong field and 6 of them finished in the first seven. In Croco's year it was 12-8-8-8-8. In 2018 Le Prezien won as a seven yr old. He was the only six yr old in the 2017 field finishing 8th. Backed down to 7/2 fav. 2016 Solar Impulse, first 6 yr old since Oh Crick '09 and Edredon Bleu '98 (the latter under a gloriously mad front running AP ride).

Palarshan '03 at 8/1 only 5 yr old winner since 1954. Madara 11/2, ninth last year.

Unexpected Party was a nine year old second season novice, Alderwood was a nine year old novice and won the County the previous year.

To summarise, all winners bar Solar Impulse (6yrs) Global Citizen and Croco Bay aged between 7 and 9 yrs in the last 15 renewals.

IRISH TRAINED - Maskada, Chosen Mate, Rock The World, Savello, Alderwood, Tiger Cry '08, Fota Island ‘05, and Fadoudal Du Cochet '02 make it eight Irish trained winners in the last 22. Five of the last 12. Seven of the 16 strong field last year, best Path D'Oroux in 3rd, Sa Fureur 4th. 11 of the 19 in 2023, Dinoblue 2nd. Seven of the 17 in 2022, best the fast finishing JP owned fav, Andy Dufrene.

Six ran in 2021, again the fast finishing JP owned Entoucas just failed to catch Sky Pirate. Next best was Cappucimix in 6th. Five ran in 2020 resulting in a 1-2 for Gordon Elliott. Eclair de Beaufeau 2nd with another Joseph O'Brien plot, Us and Them in 3rd. Only Minds Eye ran in 2019 for Henry de Bromhead, 7/1 PU after a bad mistake 4 out. Four ran in 2018, again best Henry de Bromhead's Three Stars in 5th.

To summarise that's 8 winners and 17 placed from 91 runners in 23 years (that's 34% of winners, 20% of total places for about 20% of total runners. Sounds like a plan. Besides 2010 (when nobody came), in the last 22, the Irish trained 'race within a race' has been won by the most fancied one on 11 occasions. not in 2024, 2023 nor 2021. Sa Fureur was the 4/1 fav last year.

Rock The World in 2017 was Jessica's third winner of the week and her first runner since Robbie Power winning the GC with Sizing John. Momentum? Robbie later admitted he 'had no idea where he was in the race. Just floated around.'

M/D. Pipe have yet to win this. 13 runners in past 15. Best has been Leo's Lucky Star 3rd 2011, Consigliere 3rd '10, Madison Du Berlais 3^rd in ‘06. Sizing Pottsie, their first runner in five renewals PU 2023. P Nicholls produced Solar Impulse to win this in 2016, his first win since Andreas 2007 (straight after Pacha won the Foxhunters. See Momentum Theory on General Trends page). Le Prezien was his beaten fav in 2017, returns to win 2018. 2019 ran Brelan D'As 3rd at 8/1, Magic Saint fav and Le Prezien. 2020 Greaneteen 5/1 in 4th couldn't repel the Irish hordes, Two runners 2021, unplaced. 2022 Il Ridoto 18/1 and 8th. 2023 Thyme White 28s, 'every chance when falling 2 out.' Last year no runner.

N Henderson has a decent recent record in the race named after his father. But no runner last four renewals. In 2020 Theinval his only runner at 10 yrs of age, 5th at 50/1. Whatwrongwithyou 7th 2019, Theinval 4th in 2018 at 16s and 3rd 2017 at 9s, again he was Nicky's only runner in each of those races. Bellvano 2012, one of the great Paul Carberry rides. N Henderson has had three beaten favourites in the past 16 years. Both his winners since the name change were priced 20/1.

Only 2 of the last 7 GB trained were course winners. Those were Sky Pirate and Le Prezien. Unexpected Party had placed form here and finished 4th to Stage Star in the 2023 G1 Turners. D Skelton had just failed to get him into this race. In 2020 Global Citizen had previously finished 4th to Put The Kettle On in the Arkle

RETURNING WINNERS - Repeat success hasn't been achieved since Top Twenty in 1958/59. Might be the only one ever. This century nine winners have returned the next year. Their finishing position, most recent first. Last/9/9/14/BD/9/5/4/11/10/PU. Global Citizen last year, a very credible third at 12. 8 of past 18 had run in this race before winning it. Path D'Oroux, Libberty Hunter, Sa Fureur.

JP McManus - Owned winners 2005, 2012, 2013, 2018. Also seconds in 2023, 2013, 2014, 2015 2021 2022 and 2023. Been unlucky recently, with Entoucas, Andy Dufresne and Dinoblue. Six others placed since 2003. Breslan D'As third 2019, 17 others unplaced over the last eight years including Saint Roi 6th last year, Andy Dufresne in 2023, One was Great Field in 2020. Just before the 2020 race Jonjo was asked at a preview night if he thought Great Field was well handicapped. Replied 'well he can't be if they're moving him to me.'

FORM - Apart from Unexpected Party (9th in a course 2m 4f nov), Maskada, (11th at the DRF), Global Citizen (PU Grade 2), Le Prezien (8th in 2m 5f course December H'cap chase), Rock The World (wind op after 11th in a course chase 141 days hence), Savello (9th in £50k Fairyhouse Ch) and Pigeon Island (5th of 5 at Warwick G2 Novice) every other winner since 1984 has finished in the first 4 on their latest completed chase start. That's seven exceptions in 40 yrs.

22 of last 39 not outside first four on any completed run that season. Used to be a good stat. Not now. Unexpected Party had 4 runs to get his handicap back down. Not Maskada, Global Citizen, Sky Pirate had been a non staying 5th to Coole Cody in the Paddy Power. Three of the exceptions (including Chosen Mate) finished in the first 3 in their three previous runs. Rock The World' form figures before went 080. Le Prezien 238, See the Honours Board.

25 from the last 29 top three in at least one of its last two starts. Maskadahas won a £23k Limerick Xmas Handicap. Not Unexpected Party, Rock The World, Next Sensation nor Pigeon Island. Both Rock and Next placed in this the year before they won.

21 out of the last 29 no more than 4 times since August. Maskada (three) but again a stat gone over the last few years. Unexpected Party, Global Citizen, Sky Pirate 5 runs, Chosen Mate 6 runs. He had an unsuccessful crack at three of the big Irish h'cap hurdles before going novice chasing (other exceptions Oiseau de Nuit, Oh Crick, and Fota Island with 5, Nigel's Pigeon Island had 7 runs).

Unexpected Party joins Maskada and Sky Pirate to be the first since 2004 to have won that season anything other than a beginners or ungraded novices chase. He won a listed novice in October at Chepstow. No others had already won a handicap chase that season. Sky Pirate had won two including one on course in December. Thats three from the last four.

Once Sky Pirate beat it, they all had a go in 2022. Nine of the 17, best Frero Banbou in 3rd.

Novices - Nine novice winners in the past 27 races but Unexpected Party and Chosen Mate the only since Alderwood 2013, Bellvano and Carberry in 2012. Six novices in last year's field resulting in a 1-2-3-4. Libberty Hunter 2nd, Three ran 2023, best Dinoblue 2nd, Six came 2022, best Amarillo Sky in 5th. Five came in 2021 resulting in a 2nd and a 5th. (and Embittered). Five in 2020 a 1-2-4-7. Four ran in each of the previous two years, best Brelan D'As 3rd, 2018 best Dolos in 7th, North Hill Harvey, fav, 2nd when challenging three out, fell. Three ran in 2017, best Theinval 3rd. The novice joint favourites finished 2nd and 3rd in 2014, winners in 2013 and 2012, '10 1st and 2nd, '09 1st and 3rd, ’08 My Petra fav and 2nd). 15 of the other 18 winners who were not novices had previously competed in a previous Festival chase. Exceptions to all are Maskada, Savello and Edredon Bleu 7/2 fav. 2023 Darragh O'Keefe had just parted company with Plan Of Atttack in the Cross Country before winning this. The jockeys concerned with the other two, Davy Russell and AP McCoy, were on fire that day or week.

12 of the past 15 novices or second season chasers. This was Unexpected Party's 12th chase as a second season novice. It was Maskada's 11th chase, her second season. Exceptions include Croco Bay. A bit cheeky as Global Citizen didn't jump fences for a season after his novice year. Also Sky Pirate was a third season novice.

NOVICE RATINGS - 11 successful novices since 1984 Brelan D'As 136 when 3rd and Rock The World (146) 3rd when fav 2016. The novice winners have generally increased in ratings until the BHA learned that Irish trained were winning too many. Unexpected Party 138 (down from 146 in four races), Chosen Mate 147, Alderwood 140, Bellvano 138 rated between 129 and 135. Pigeon Island 129, Oh Crick 130. The latter two were the lowest rated novices in the race. Alderwood and Bellvano were the second lowest of the seven novices in their respective years.

Lowest rated runner to get in going back from last year were 132, 139, 136, 136, 140, 134, 139, 135, 137, 130, 136.

Those rated between 130 and 134 responsible for the winner and the second in 2000, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2008. Only 1st in 2010 and 2009. None of the first 4 in the last six years were in this band (Oiseau 145 before taking off jockeys 7lb claim). Only other two winners not in this band were '07 Andreas on 143 and Pigeon 129, both novices. Sky Pirate 152 and Le Prezien off 150 highest rated winners since My Young Man off 153 in 1992. Last 13 winners rated between 136 and 152 with only four in the 130's. Rock and Savello both 147, Croco Bay off 139. Chosen Mate 147, Maskada 142 Unexpected Party 138.

Rated over 145 - Four ran last year, all unplaced. First four home 2023r 142, 140, 139 and 49. 10 of the 19 rated 145+. 2022 it went 136, 155, 141, 151 five were 145+, First four 2021 were 152, 143, 154, 140. Half the field 145+ All four placed in 2020 rated over 145, but only eight of the field rated below that mark. Now harder to get in. In 2019 first four ratings home were 139, 148, 136, 153. Forest Bihan in 4th was top weight. That's 23 from the last 92 placings but bringing it up to date, 17 from the last 36 145+. It's up and down.

PRICE - 25 from last 40 found in first five in the betting. 17 from last 28 not above 12/1. Exceptions, Five of the last six have been 12/1, 22s, 28s. 14s. 66s, Before thet we had Solar Impulse 40s to 28s on course, Next Sensation, Savello, Bellvano, Uncle Ernie, Greenhope, Pigeon, Oiseau 40s. Not helpful at all. In 2014 Savello was also backed from 33s to 16s in 15 minutes. (Davy Russell trebles? Or the last leg of Mr. Michael O'Leary's 50p ew Lucky 15 that day?) Think we're due another shortie.

Chosen Mate at 7/2 first fav to win since Alderwood 3/1 in 2013. Before that St Pirran 2005, Samakaan 2000 and Space Trucker in '99. Only Chosen Mate and Alderwood in the last 17 years. Due another? Only five winners from the last 14 came from the front six in the betting.

Last year's favourite is 3-10 in the past 16 years. Sa Fureur. Five from the last 18 from the front three in the market from last year's race. Look for Sa Fureur, Madara, Libberty Hunter.

BF LAST TIME OUT - One ran last year, nowhere. Maskada, Dinoblue and Coeur Sublime 2023. A 1-2! Not a good result (or a great Festival tbh) for one of my favourite stats. Maskada at 22s joins Andreas 2007 12/1 and Fota Island 2005 7/1to have won since 1999 from 34 qualifiers. £1 on all of them would now put you £7 in front.

Last 28 winners were not running under a penalty. No qualifiers last six years. Two last time out winners last year, best Libberty Hunter 2nd. Five in 2023, best 5th. Three in 2021, best Ibleo 2nd. Six ran in the last two previous years, a 1-2 in 2020, in 2019 best Brelan D'As 3rd.

25 out of the last 32 carried no more than 10st 13lbs. Three from the last nine. Unexpected Party 10-10. Global Citizen bottom weight off 10 st 6 Had to carry 10st 11 to get in 2020. Sky Pirate 11st 6 Chosen Mate 11 4, Croco carried 10 13, Le Prezien 11 8, Rock The World 11 5, Solar Impulse 11st. Oiseau 10st 13 after jockey's 7lb allowance. Next Sensation 11 2 , Savello 11 5 first winner since '98 Edredon Bleu to carry over 11st. This mirrors the recent rise in ratings to qualify. Not really relevant imho.

Last 13 not seen out for at least 30 days. See Honours Board. U Party 46, Maskada 38, Global Citizen 39, Sky 30, Chosen Mate 50, Croco Bay 227 days, Le Prezien 90 days, Rock The World 141 days. Solar Impulse 92. Next Sensation not out for 104 days for another breathing op. Savello 54, Bellvano 30. Before that 45 days max til at least 1990. Lots of Plots.

Rock The World, Next Sensation (4th to Savello), Uncle Ernie and Tiger Cry only winners to improve on a placed effort in the previous Festival. Alderwood won the County and Oiseau PU in 2010 but was a previous course winner. Le Prezien 7th here in 2017, Solar Impulse 7th in the Fred Winter in 2014. Croco 3rd and 5th in previous installments of this. Sky Pirate had been 7th in a Kim Muir! Global Citizen PU behind Belfast Banter in the County. Sure it was obvious. Libberty Hunter, Path D'Oroux, Sa Fureur.

RUNS - 23 of last 26 winners no more than 12 previous runs over fences and apart from Unexpected Party, all were distance winners. (He had 11 runs Maskada 10, Global only five, Sky 13 previous chases, Chosen Mate 3, Croco 25, Le Prezien 9, Rock The World and Next Sensation both 11, Alderwood only four, Solar Impulse 10, Savello 9).

TRIP -19 of last 28 had won over 2m 2f +. Four others were already course winners. Le Prezien and Alderwood were both. Maskada won over 2m 3f+, Global Citizen and Chosen Mate hadn't. Before Rock The World none of the previous three were either. (Savello earned the title of the 2014 Cheltenham Festival Stats Demolisher)

11 of the last 27 were previous course winners. 9 others had raced before on the course, seven at a previous festival. Exceptions include Maskada, Chosen Mate and Savello.

16 of last 20 had run at a previous Festival, only Alderwood won (County Hurdle). 8 of the last 19 ran in the race previously, best placing achieved was third (Rock The World). Four of the last nine ran in it before plus Solar Impulse, declared to run as a novice, but pulled out because of the ground.

BLINKERS ETC - Croco Bay (always blinkered) joined Solar Eclipse in first time blinkers, Savello (hood) and Pigeon Island (blinkers) only four such winners in last 26. Seven ran last year, Path D'Oroux 3rd in first time cheekpieces, the only finisher in the top eight. 2023 Nothing in headgear in the first six home 2022 two unplaced. Four in 2021, 7th best. Eight ran in 2020, only Us And Them (blinkered) 3rd in the first four. 2019 Eight of the nineteen in headgear, as well as Croco Bay, also Forest Bihan 4th usual cheekpieces. Nine in 2018 including 2nd, 3rd and 4th, Top Gamble 3rd in first time pieces. Six in 2017 including Theinval, 3rd, in first time cheekpieces. Only three tried in 2016 including Savello 4th. Not much to recommend it.

CONDITIONAL JOCKEYS - Mr. Steven Clements (7) is the only conditional winner I can find to win this in the past 38 years. 2010 Oiseau de Nuit 40s. Six unplaced in the last four renewals in total. Sean O'Keeffe (5) fine ride to finish 2nd in 2020 on Eclair De Beaufeu. None placed 2017 to 2019. 2016 step forward Bridget Andrews (5) fourth on Savello, the only conditional riding (eight spread over the previous two years unplaced), 2013 Jeremiah McGrath (3) second on Kid Cassidy, Brendan Powell (3) third on Oiseau. 5 others unplaced. Jeremiah got the ride as P Carberry suffered an unfortunate injury. Whilst he did well to finish second, imho I would have been surprised if P Carberry would have, three out, taken it up on the Kid.

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