AGE - Since Minnehoma ’92 all 33 horses aged nine years and older have been beaten. None last two years, Thyme Hill 2023 8th, the only qualifier in the last six years (Why did you back that, Bryan?). So close for Whisper 2017 but Might Bite would have been unlucky to lose that race. No qualifiers in the previous four years to that, Call The Police 3rd in 2012. 26 of last 31 winners were 7 or 8 years of age. Seven year olds have won 16 of the last 19. Exceptions were Champ and Might Bite both at 8 years, Don Poli at 6 yrs. You then have to go back to the 5yr old Star De Mohaison ’06 (with a big allowance). Three six yr olds, Florida Pearl ’98, Young Hustler ’93 and the Don in 2015. Those are the only three six year olds to have won since 1978. Bronn 3rd last at 50s, Capodanno 4th 2022, Sporting John fell 2021, six ran in 2020, best Allaho in third. 2019 Delta Work 3rd.

5yr olds recently - None since Adriana Des Mottes 4th in 2015, Unioniste 3rd as fav 2012, Long Run 3rd 2010 at 11/4. Ten five year olds have run in the last 33 years, Star De Mohaison won and three others were placed. Star got a 10lb allowance in 2006. Now only 2lb and mares 7lbs. The three 6 yr olds winners were priced 11/8 fav, 9/4 2nd fav and 13/8 fav respectively in what were, with hindsight, uncompetitive renewals. Lecky Watson a seven yr old. A 1-2 for seven year olds in 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2019 and 2018.

PRICES - From '07 to '09 Cooldine, Albertas Run and Denman all won as jollies. Don Poli, Might Bite, Presenting Percy, Monkish, L'Homme Presse and Fact To File since. That's six in the last 11.

Gerri Colombe a well backed 5/4 fav when Jordan Gainford just failed to get him up. Ballyburn returned 4/7 last year. Ouch.

Champ was morning paper fav, ended up third favourite, got up on the line. Going back, Nick Dundee, Royal Athlete, Mr. Mulligan, Harcon, Barton Bank, One Man, Keen Leader, Our Vic, Comply or Die and since 2009, Punchestowns, Time For Rupert, Long Run, Grand Crus, Unioniste, More Of That (6/4), Delta Work (15/8) and Allaho (5/2). These were all 3/1 or under and beat.

26 of the last 33 were in the first four in the market. That means 7 weren't. Not a shock. Lecky Watson 20s and O'Faolains Boy, 12/1 in 2014 is the only winners above 8/1 in the last 14. About right.

THE REYNOLDSTOWN, YE OLDE BOGEY RACE - O'Faolains Boy 2014 joined Albertas Run 2008 in completing the Reynoldstown/Broadway double, the first since Killiney ’73. 22 have tried, 11 started favourite at Cheltenham, only 6 others achieved a place. None came last two years, two went to the NQ4M. Last year The Changing Man went for easier pickings in the Ultima. 2023 Oscar Elite 5th in Ultima. 2022 Does He Know went to the Ultima well beaten by Corach Rambler who had fallen at Ascot. 2021 Remastered went NH Chase 5th, 2020 Copperhead 6/1, fell when beat. Mister Malarkey 4th 2019, Black Corton, fifth to Presenting Percy 2018. Bobs Worth '12, Nahthen Lad '96, Envopak Token, The West Awake and Kildimo all beaten in the Reynoldstown went on to win at Cheltenham. Ms Parfois, 2nd at Ascot, just outstayed by Rathvinden in the 4 miler.

Back to the Reynoldstown. In 2016 Vyta Du Roc won at Ascot but 5th here. Minella Rocco (2nd at Ascot) took the 4 miler and Ballyalton (F) won the 2m 4f nov h'cap. Since 1996 only 10 horses have ran in the Broadway Chase after being beaten in a Reynoldstown. Bobs Worth only winner. Nothing beat at Ascot in the last six years has come to this race.

THE NEW BOGEY RACE - All 22 Kempton Feltham (now the Kauto Star Novices Chase) winners to come here have failed to do the double. Some have said this stat survives thanks to Darryl Jacob wrestling Might Bite to the ground at the last fence in the 2016 Kempton race when 'slightly' ahead of Royal Vacation. Otherwise this stat may have been consigned to dust. The Jukebox Man inj last year. Il Est Francais stayed away 2024 Thyme Hill RIP 8th here 2023. 2022 Bravemansgamea late withdrawal due to the ground. Ahoy Senor was second in both races. 2021 Shan Blue went unsuccessfully to Aintree. 2020 Slate House won at Kempton and then finished a distant last in this. In 2019 La Bague Au Roi took the easier 68k at the DRF, then Aintree. 2018 Topofthegame was second at Kempton and won here. Kempton 2017 Black Corton beats Elegant Escape and then only 5th to Presenting Percy. Another fortunate winner at Kempton after Fountains Windfall RIP fell going strongly 4 out. Annacotty well beaten here 2014, 2012 Dynaste was beat in the Jewson. Even Trabolgan the '05 RSA winner was beaten a short head at Kempton before coming here.

It's an oft-quoted stat - Kauto Star winners are 0/22 in the Broadway, finishing 65P843663268 this century The last 7 winners to take on horses they beat at Kempton: Galia Des Liteaux, Black Corton, Royal Vacation, Annacotty Grands Crus Joe Lively Ungaro all had the form turned round at Cheltenham. Kitzbuhel won easy from Thomas Mor and Wendigo.

17 from last 19 Broadway (RSA) winners all placed at least in a Grade 1 or 2 chase. Not Lecky Watson but he had yet to run in one. Not Might Bite but I feel we should give it to him (Darryl at Kempton). The Real Whacker won a Dipper (race no longer exists from 2024). L'Homme Presse also won a Dipper as well as a Scilly Isles. Monkfish two Leopardsown G1s, Champ fell in the Dipper but had previously won the G2 Berkshire Ch at Newbury. Presenting Percy second in G2 RedMills at Gowran. Blaklion won the G2 Towton at Wetherby.

This century 'second season' novice chasers are 4 from 14. Gaillard du Mesnil took the NQ4M instead in 2023.

Last season's Baring Bingham Novice Hurdle winner hasn't figured in the finish of this since The West Awake achieved the double in 1988. WPM tried Sir Gerhard on the back of one chase run. 9th and last. Even Willie couldn't work that magic. Both Denman and Champ finished 2nd in the Ballymore, before winning this. Samcro, Faugheen, Yorkhill went the Turners route. Envoi Allen fell in the Marsh at 8/15. Impair Et Passe didn't come. Ballyburn couldn't jump, 5th.

Red Mills Chase Gowran Park over 2m 4f has been going since 1990. Presenting Percy the first to run there and then win here. Also the only novice. At Gowran he was second to Our Duke on heavy ground. Presenting Percy also damaged the stat that 'In all Grade 1 chases going back to 2005 of the last 50 to have run on heavy ground in the last 30 days, only 6 placed, no winners.' Last two WPM winners not eligible.

Topofthegame joined Don Poli to be the exceptions in the last 58 winners having a run since 31 December. Don Poli won G1 Leopardstown on the 29th December. Champ fell in the Dipper on New Year's Day.

NORTHERN - Patrick Neville trains at Leyburn, North Yorkshire. Flew the flag with The Real Whacker. Ahoy Senor 2nd 2022 also representing those stables north of the Watford Gap. 2020 Aye Right came down from Jedburgh. Rated 146 100/1 5th of six finishers. Apart from Hussard Collonges’ success in 2002, Royal Emperor placed ‘04 and According To John's 3^rd in '07, 32 other Northern based had failed to reach frame until Ahoy. Those to flop recently include Seeyouatmidnight, Corrin Wood, Vintage Star, Mr Moonshine, Wymott. 2010 legend Knockara Beau finished 4th under the great Jan Faltesjek. All Irish trained field in 2025.

FORM - Last time out - 46 from last 51 winners were 1^st or 2^nd last time (exceptions Kildimo 4^th in a Reynoldstown, Lesley Ann Fell, Hanakham, 3^rd in the Wincanton Gold Cup Trial and, after a gap of 16 yrs, Lord Windermere 3rd G1 PJ Moriarty, then Champ F). The better stat is that this century all bar Champ and Lord Windermere finished 1st or 2nd last time out.

30 of last 33 had run no more than 5 times over fences. 28 from last 31 had run at least three times over fences (Topofthegame, three chases over two seasons). Exceptions to last Lecky Watson, The Real Whacker, Florida Pearl and Don Poli - but they were all unbeaten over two chases. W Mullins doesn't care about stats,

6 of the last 9 Irish trained winners ran in the Flogas/Ladbrokes Chase on Dublin Festival Day. Fact To File beat Gaelic Warrior (fav). Monkfish first since Lord Windermere in 2013. Monalee was second at Cheltenham to Presenting Percy. Galopin des Champs, Faugheen went Marsh Chase instead. 2023 Adamantly Chosen 2nd, I Am Maximus 4th at Leopardstown, finished 7th and 4th here respectively. Lecky Wtason won G3 Punchestown 12th January. Kappa Jy Pyke bt Jacobs Ladder.

Neville Hotels Chase Xmas Leopardstown - Monkfish, Bostons Angel and Don Poli won both, No More Heroes 4th at Cheltenham when 5/2, Delta Work third when fav. 2020 Battleoverdoyen 7s, a distant 4th in the Broadway. Nothing came the last two years. Grangeclare West inj beat Corbetts Cross NQ4M. Better Days Ahead 2nd there, 3rd at Cheltenham.

Young Hustler '93 last horse to win this with more than 10 previous chase runs. He had run in 13 chases. That's a lot.

Lecky Watson Fact To File, L'Homme Presse, Champ, Lord Windermere, Cooldine, Brief Gale, Florida Pearl and Star De Mohaison are the nine in the last 39 winners yet to be tried in a chase over at least 3 miles. Fact To File Cooldine and Florida Pearl came straight from winning the PJ Moriarty, (trainer knows what he's doing), L'Homme Presse from the G1 Dipper. Champ had won the 3m G1 Sefton Novice Hurdle at Aintree. Demolished a fence in the Dipper when cruising. Apart from Lord Windermere they all won their previous start, all bar Star de Mohaison in a Graded race. Lord Windermere's notes say 'kept on well' in Moriarty. To be honest, you wouldn't have backed here him in a fit three out until Boston Bob fell at the last with the race at his mercy. Of the other 30 of these only Topofthegame, Hussard Collonges (2^nd twice, ‘staying on’), Nahthen Lad and Bobs Worth (both 2^nd in a Reynoldstown) and Trabolgan (short head 2^nd in a Feltham) had not been successful over that chase distance. Bobs Worth had won an Albert Bartlett. Gerri Colombe had yet to try 3 miles over fences but Sam TD had already stolen it by the time he got going. I witnessed not much craic amongst connections when Jordan Gainford brought Gerri back to the parade ring that cold and wet Wednesday.

The Real Whacker the first since Hussard Collonges 2002 to make their chase debut over 3 miles.

It might seem surprising but all the last six winners of this had there final prep race over 2m 4f to 2m 5f. Right back to Topofthegame 2019.

Eight of the last 15 were beaten on chase debut. But only Fact To File of the last six.

19 from last 26 'raced up with the pace' or 'tracked leaders'. Lecky Watson 'prominent', Fact To File 'in rear' The Real Whacker made all, L'Homme Presse led from the 7th fence. Champ not so, neither Presenting Percy. Monkfish and Might Bite very much so. Not O'Faolains Boy, Weapon's Amnesty, Bobs Worth or Lord Windermere. Last 26 hadn't run within the last 25 days. Presenting Percy and O'Faolains Boy at 25 days the most recent runner of the 26 (and he would never have won if Smad Place had been allowed to go on and make the pace.. let that one go Bryan..)

Last 27 winners had 90 completed starts over fences. Only seven unplaced completions, three of which were in Irish Grade 1 Chases. Lord Windermere 3rd of 6 beaten 1/2 length. Might Bite made a hash of the last when 2nd of 3 in his first chase, Blaklion was 4th of 7 in his, O'Faolains Boy was 2nd of 4 in his first chase. Lecky Watson, The Real Whacker, L'Homme Presse, Monkfish, Don Poli, Denman, Florida Pearl, and Rolling Ball in 1991 the last eight to have 100% success rate over fences before this race. Lecky, The Whacker, L'Homme Presse Monkfish, Don Poli and Denman the only six in the last 19.

Fact To File didn't bother with hurdles. a great training performance. 14 of the last 15 had all between 6 and 13 runs in total over hurdles and chases. Fact To File 3, The Real Whacker 6, L'Homme Presse 8, Monkfish 11, Champ 12, Topofthegame 10, Percy 13, Might Bite 9.

Last 28 made chase debut before Christmas

THE LETTER F - Champ and Might Bite the first since Hussard Colonges 2002 to fall in any of their last three starts. Blaklion only other one in the last 14 to have fallen that season.

No mares have won since Brief Gale in '95. 11 have tried. Galia Des Liteaux 5th 2023. None previous three years, Drinks Interval 100/1 PU 2019, Briery Belle 25s and PU 2017, Adriana Des Mottes in 4th in 2015, only ones to run in last decade. The latter ran when as a five year old and got a 9lb allowance. They normally get 7lbs.

BLINKERS CHEEKPIECES etc - No headgear wearing winners in last 24 - Stellar Story 2nd in cheekpieces last year. Stat not known by PN. Stay Away Fay PU 6/1 first time pieces. Thyme Hill 8th alone 2023. 2022 Beacon Edge alone in pieces, 7th and last. Castlebawn West well beat 2020, Delta Work 3rd 2019 in his usual hood, Full Irish PU 2017 Royal Vacation PU regularly wore blinkers. In 2019 five of the 11 runners wore some sort of headgear but neither of the first two home.

BEATEN FAVS LAST TIME - 4 winners from 29 qualifiers. None last year. Stay Away Fay PU had been fav for the Cotswold Chase Champ had been 4/9 in the Dipper when demolishing 2 out, Presenting Percy had been evens fav at Gowran when beaten. First since Trabolgan 2005 then Hussard Collonges in 2002.

BREEDING - Lecky Watson by Valirann, sire of Val Dancer. 31 of last 33 NH Bred. 23 from last 30 Irish NH Bred (The Real Whacker by Mahler, Monkfish by Stowaway, Champ by Kings Theatre, Topofthegame by Fleminsfirth, Presenting Percy by Sir Percy (GB), a fast ground Derby winner. Might Bite by Scorpion, Irish Bred. Blaklion by Kayf Tara (GB). Fact To File (Poliglote), L'Homme Presse, Star De Mohaison and Hussard Collonges the French-bred exceptions.

FRE BREDS - Fact To File, Gerri Colombe 2023, L'Homme Presse now put the stat to bed imho. One of four in 2022 with Gaillard Du Mesnil 3rd and Farouk D'Alene falling when well in contention. FRE breds are now 3-46 since Star de Mohasion 2006, Hussard Collonges 2002 before that. 2021 Eklat De Rire F 10s, the only qualifier of the 6 runners. Allaho 5/2f (just didn't stay) and Easy Game F 10s, Delta Work 15/8f, Black Corton 5/1, Whisper 5/1, Accapella Bourgeoise 5/1, Roi Des France 10/1, Smad Place 13/2jf, Unioniste 5/2f, Grand Crus 6/5f the most recent shorter priced ones to try and not succeed. Quai de Bourbon fell last year but them finished 3rd in the Irish National

8 of the last 19 had won an Irish p2p. Fact To File from Asian Master in that beautiful early February p2p at Belharbour, Co Clare. Looks right across Galway Bay, I recommend it.

Since '94 no ex Flat horse has gained a place.

TIMES - Fact To File 6.29 in Good to soft. Fact To File 6 42 in soft? The Real Whacker 6 18 in soft, L'Homme Presse 6 35 in worsening conditions. Monkfish 6 11 in G to S Champ 6 29 in soft, 2017 6 09 including that bit when Might Bite went missing. 2014's fast time of 6 mins dead would confirm a good pace and good ground. O'Faolains Boy, surprisingly for a son of Oscar, hadn't run over good ground since he won an Irish point.

Conclusion - Previous times have not been much help as an indicator. However, let's not be negative. Best times for this years candidates so far:-

Kauto Star - Kitzbuhel 5.52, 12 secs faster than the Jukebox Man 12 months earlier. But 3 seconds slowere than the KG an hur later. That was a course record. Il Est Francais went round 2023 in 5 51.

Leopardstown Ladbrokes - 5 27

COURSE FORM - Seven of last 20 placed at least in a course chase that season but only The Real Whacker, L'Homme Presse and Blaklion of the last 14. Haven't included Champ in the six even though he was coming to win the Dipper. Had been second in the Ballymore. Lecky Watson had been 4th in the Bumper and 5th in the Albert Bartlett. Fact To File 2nd in the Champion Bumper, Monkfish won an Albert Bartlett. Topofthegame had been touched off in the previous year's Coral Cup at 9/1. Presenting Percy strolled the Pertemps in 2017. Might Bite had won a £10k novice hurdle but had not impressed in two attempts at course novice chases. Bostons Angel PU in an Albert Bartlett, Cooldine 7th in the Bumper 2 years previous, Lord Windermere had never been here before, O'Faolains Boy 17l 4th in Albert Bartlett. Don Poli won the Martin Pipe hurdle. 12 of the last 13 winners either a C win or strong form from the previous Festival.

15 of the last 19 had run at a previous Festival. Not The Whacker, L'Homme Presse, Might Bite nor Lord Windermere.

Topofthegame joins Might Bite as being the first since Lord Noelie '00 to have raced two seasons over hurdles. The latter two had only one hurdle in one of those seasons. Topofthegame came back to hurdles from one unsuccessful chase. Rolling Ball in 1991 was the last winner of this to have previously spent two full seasons over hurdles. Fact To File no seasons over hurdles.

HURDLES RATING - Only The Real Whacker 136 and L'Homme Presse 130 of the last nine not rated at least 143 over hurdles (Lecky Watson 143, Monkfish 152, Champ 152 Topofthegame 154, Percy 157, Might Bite 148, Blaklion 144, Don Poli 153. O'Faolains Boy 4th in an Albert Bartlett under 143, Lord Windermere 135, Bob Worth 150+ Bostons Angel 139, Weapons Amnesty 140+), 11 before that weren't. DKitzbuhel, Wendigo

The last ten already had a BHA chase rating of 150 + Fact To File 159, Lecky Watson 152

28 of last 32 were novice hurdlers the previous season. Not Fact To File nor Topofthegame.

The winners of all three G1 novice hurdles have never all returned to win their respective novice chase the next year. Not happening in 2025 either. Especially since one of them is now a handicap.

ALBERT BARTLETT G1 HURDLE - Going 20 years. Lecky Watson, Blaklion, Bostons Angel and O'Faoloins Boy were beaten in the Albert Bartlett before coming to win this race. Monkfish, Bobs Worth and Weapons Amnesty both did the double. Minella Indo and Alloha did justice for the AB in 2020. Santini and Monalee placed in both races. Elegant Escape placed here after finishing 7th in an Albert Bartlett. No More Heroes 4th here after being 3rd in AB. 7 winners from the last 15. 2022 Streets Of Doyen and Threeunderthrufive unpld. 2023 Bronn 4th in AB, 3rd here at 50s. 2024 Sandor Clegane 4th in this having finished 3rd in the AB. Montys Star 2nd here, PU AB.

12 of the last 19 winners had all won listed/graded races over hurdles (not Lecky, FtF, The Real Whacker, L'Homme Presse, Might Bite, O'Faolains Boy or Bostons Angel. Might Bite had won a £20k Cl2 at Kempton). Champ an Aintree G1. The Real Whacker had finished 2nd in the River Don, L'Homme Presse had only won a Chepstow nov hurdle.

Naas Business Club Novices Chase G3 January. No winner has come from that race. Most tend to go to the NQ4M. Wounded Warrior was third to Don Poli in 2015 after winning at Naas. Farouk D'Alene was second at Naas, close up, fell 2 out behind L'Homme Presse. Last year Dancing City faded, last,

TRAINERS - Nicky Henderson has now trained four winners including three of the last 14. And a second with Santini. Paul Nicholls has won three '06, '07 and 2019 All three winners ran at Exeter before the New Year.

IRISH TRAINED - Willie Mullins has trained seven winners. Moves three ahead of Nicky H and Fulke Walwyn to top the all-time Broadway leaderboard. Of Willie's other 28 runners in this, three were second, five thirds and three fourths. Last year ran four of the seven field. Lecky was his outsider. 2024 Fact to File alone. 2023 ran five, Bronn 3rd, Willie's complete outsider. 2022 Gaillard 3rd with Capodanno 4th, 2020 Alloha 3rd, no runner 2019, Al Boum Photo fell in third at the second last in 2018, Bellshill 3rd 2017, Shanehill 2nd 2016, 2015 Don Poli, 2014 Ballycasey 4th, 2013 Boston Bob fell 2 out when right there, 2012 Call The Police 3rd.

Only 8 Irish trained victories since 1985 but 8 of the last 16 and six runners-up in Stellar Story, Montys Star, Gerri Colombe, Minella Indo, Shaneshill, Horner Woods and Lyreen Legend, 3rds Bronn, Morning Assembly, Delta Work and Alloha. All bar Lecky Watson and Presenting Percy of the last 8 Irish trained winners finished in the first three at Leopardstown over Christmas, four in a 3m G1, one in a 2m 1f G1 and one in a beginners chase. Koktail Divin

The last nine Irish trained were from five different trainers. Six of those Irish winners ran in PJ Moriarty/Flogas at Leopardstown DRF. Not Lecky, Percy, not Poli.

Only three horses have completed the Drinmore/PJ Moriarty double and gone on to race at Cheltenham that year. Mighty Potter RIP disappointed in the Turners, Dorans Pride finished 3rd in the GC and Harbour Pilot unseated in this. Croke Park didn't come last year. Romeo Coolio?

Gordon Elliott has yet to win this. He's been close. Stellar Story last year However, Davy Russell was good at it. 12 rides, 3 wins, 4 placed. Pat Taaffe leads on five wins, that's five different horses, mind. Between 1953 and 1970.

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