

William Hill County Handicap Hurdle
Between them, D Skelton and W Mullins won 10 of the last 11
Since 2015 WPM has trained six winners. P Townend usually on the right one.
19 of the last 22 were either novices or second-season hurdlers
Since 1991 only three previous course winners have won. Two were second-season novices
Only two winners this century with a BHA rating in 150s.
Six of the last 10 were ex-Flat
Four h'cap debutants win since Thumbs Up '93. All four trained by WPM
16 of the last 20 achieved best RPR within their last three runs
This century only Kargese and Arctic Fire had finished in the first five at a previous Festival
Kargese the only BF last time out to win since 2013.
Those aged 9yrs + are 0 from 40 over the past 18 years
Only Kargese and Arctic Fire of the last 16 won wearing any sort of headgear
Last 14 were either novices or had already been beaten in a Cheltenham Hurdle
Three of Dan Skelton's four winners hadn't raced since at least Boxing Day. All four had previously finished placed at least on course.
Summary
Race Distance - 2 miles and abt a furlong. Winner will be aged 5 or 6 yrs, a novice or else placed in Betfair Hurdle/G2. Not finished in first five in previous Festival race or WPM. No more than second season over hurdles or else Skelton/Mullins trained. If full handicap, will carry under 11 - 1 unless finished 1st or 2nd in a Class 1 Handicap Hurdle. Not more than 1lb out of the handicap. Will have had at least three previous runs this season. No more than 19 previous runs over hurdles. Likely to be rated between 134 and 139 unless Skelton/Mullins. No headgear unless Nicholls/Mullins. Either WPM or Skelton trained. Dan Skelton yet to win with a novice. Not from Seven Barrows or Cullentra. Not a previous course winner unless won on Trials Day. Only a handicap debutante if trained by WPM. May already have ran in a top hurdle race this season. Any price. Don't back a conditional who has yet to win at least Class 2 level. Has a best RPR of at least 129 achieved within last three runs. Hasn't won this before. Did I mention Willie Mullins and Dan Skelton? P Townend knows which one to pick.
Max field size down to 24 in 2026.
Honours Board
Year ||| Form ||| Winner ||| Age ||| Weight ||| OR ||| SP ||| Trainer ||| Jockey ||| Hdle Runs ||| Last Race (No of Days)
2025 ||| 2 ||| Kargese ||| 5 ||| 11-3 ||| 141 ||| 3/1F ||| W Mullins (IRE) ||| P Townend ||| 9 ||| 2nd G G2 2m M Ascot (55)
2024 ||| P4 ||| Absurde ||| 6 ||| 10-10 ||| 138 ||| 12/1 ||| W Mullins (IRE) ||| P Townend ||| 4 ||| 4th 2m G1 Nov (40)
2023 ||| 4P ||| Faivoir ||| 8 ||| 10-7 ||| 134 ||| 33/1 ||| D Skelton ||| B Andrews ||| 14 ||| PU G3 Betfair Hdle Newbury (34)
2022 ||| F1 ||| State Man ||| 5 ||| 11-1 ||| 141 ||| 11/4F ||| W Mullins (IRE) ||| P Townend||| 3 ||| 1st 2m Limerick Maiden Hdle (45)
2021 ||| 5312562 ||| Belfast Banter||| 6 ||| 10-0 |||129||| 33/1 ||| Peter Fahey (IRE) ||| K Sexton ||| 14 ||| 2nd G2 Navan Hdle (19)
2020 ||| 51 ||| Saint Roi ||| 5 |||10-13 ||| 137 ||| 11/2F ||| W Mullins (IRE) ||| B Geraghty ||| 2 ||| 1st 2m Tramore Maiden Hdle (72)
2019 ||| 5692 ||| Ch'tibello||| 8 ||| 11-5 ||| 146 ||| 12/1 ||| D Skelton ||| H Skelton |||19 ||| 2nd Cl2 2m 4f Aintree H'cap (97)
2018 ||| 1023 ||| Mohaayed ||| 6 ||| 10-8 ||| 139 ||| 33/1 ||| D Skelton ||| B Andrews ||| 9 ||| 3rd G1 Kemp Xmas Hdle (81)
2017 ||| - ||| Arctic Fire ||| 8 ||| 11-12 ||| 158 ||| 20/1 ||| W Mullins (IRE) ||| P Townend |||17 ||| 2nd G1 Leop Irish Champion (418)
2016 ||| 12 ||| Superb Story ||| 5 ||| 10-12 ||| 138 ||| 8/1 ||| D Skelton ||| H Skelton ||| 6 ||| 2nd G3 Chelt Greatwood (124)
Evidence
QUALIFYING CHANGES FROM BHA - From Oct 1st '24 a novice horse shall only be qualified to run in a Class 1 or Class 2 Handicap Hurdle Race if it has run a minimum of five times in Hurdle races in Great Britain, Ireland or France. (State Man and Saint Roi had only three, Absurde had four. The latter complied with the 2022 changes). Makes it even harder for novices to be 'thrown in' and allegedly WPM to win. That didn't work last year.
DAVID CASEY - In a Boylesports Preview Night two weeks earlier in Limerick. David Jennings RP asked David Casey 'Have you anything for the handicaps, David?' Mr Casey, WPM's assistant trainer said two things and only two things. He replied 'Jimmy Du Seuil is going very well, no idea which race. And Kargese wins the County.' He does this now and again. At the time I don't remember it causing much of a ripple. Probably the only person worth listening to on any Irish Preview Night.
AGE - Eight yrs and older - Six winners since ‘97 and three of the last nine. 2023 Faivoir won it from nine triers, Sharjah 4th as a 10 yr old. 2024 Faivoir returned alone as an elder statesman, 6th of 17. Two tried last year, out with the washing. Four ran in 2022, best West Cork at eight yrs, a well punted and respectable 4th. Had won previous season's Greatwood. In 2021 kept thinking Petit Mouchoir at 22s at 10 yrs, can't surely keep them all at bay? Oh no, he was just caught by a horse having his 12th run since the 17th June. Belfast Banter. Petit Mouchoir only one of two older than eight in the field, Global Citizen PU. Decent run 2020 by 9 yr old Moon Over Germany, a 25/1 6th. Ch'tibello's win in 2019 followed a fine second by Remiluc in 2018. He was a 9yr old at 50/1, three others unplaced. In 2017 Arctic Fire at 8 yrs proved what a class act he was (and a fine trainer he had) under a very cool Paul Townend ride, five others unplaced. 2012 Alderwood won from four triers, '07 Pedrobob, '02 Rooster Booster). Remiluc had been 5th in a Betfair Hurdle. That January he had won the 2 mile h'ap hurdle that used to close Trials Day.
Ch'tibello's last run was second in a 2m 4f h'cap at Aintree in early December, 97 days previous. After that run Dan Skelton said he would win the County. Pretty cool. Arctic Fire's last run had been 418 days previous, 15 lengths second to Faugheen in an Irish Champion Hurdle. Eight yr olds Pedrobob and Rooster Booster last runs were to be placed in a Totesport/Betfair Hurdle. Faivoir's previous run was to be PU in a fast ground Betfair. Alderwood was still a novice but had 12 hdle runs. Four ran in 2016, great performance by Fethard Player in 2nd. In 2013 - Manyriverstocross 25s 3rd as a 8 yr old and had been previously placed in a Betfair. Arcalis placed in 2010 as a 10 year old and a previous Festival winner.
Horses aged 9yrs + are 0 from 40 over the past 18 years. Ever since Pedrobob in 2007. And he was a second season hurdler.
5 yr olds have supplied 11 winners this century including six of the last 16 from about 30% of runners. 5 from 16 last year resulting in a 1-2-4. Seven in 2024, best Afadil 5th. Only three in 2023 including Pied Piper in 2nd. Seven from the 26 in 2022 resulting in a 1-2. Six ran in 2021, best finisher eighth. Saint Roi 2020 was the first five-year-old winner in four renewals. 10 of the 24 in 2020 were that age. 2019, best was We Have A Dream in second, 7 from 27 in 2018, best was Whiskey Sour in 3rd. 2017 - Ivanovich Gorbatov in 6th. hammered down to 5/1 fav at the off. 2016, 1st and 4th. 2015, best 4th. 2014 a 1-2-4-5-6. 2013 5 ran, best Shadow Catcher in 4th. 2012 2-3-4. In 2011 Final Approach got up on the line as one of six five yr olds from 26 runners. '09 American Trilogy strolled home for Paul Nicholls. '08 Silver Jaro won.
NOVICES - With the 'four runs to qualify' rule change in 2023, only four turned up in each in the last two years. Ethical Diamond 4th and Absurde, the winner. Couple of decent horses, you would say. Any wonder Paul Townend was laughing in 2024 when he crossed the line on his only ride that week in a handicap. In 2023 only six novices turned up, best Filey Bay in 3rd. He had been second to Aucunrisque in the Betfair Hurdle. Didn't stop novices being punted here, mind. Five of the six in 2023 year started at no bigger than 12/1 including Pembroke, the 9/2 fav. None of the rest better than 12th.
Ten winning novices since '93 including three of the last six (State Man rated 141 (what? how?) Belfast Banter 129, Saint Roi 135, Lac Fontana and Alderwood at 139. Ted Veale off 134. Ten of the 26 in 2022 were novices, a 1-2-3. First Street 142 in 2nd and Colonel Mustard 140 in third. 2019, one unplaced, three ran. 2018 best Whiskey Sour in 3rd. 5 in 2017, best Air Horse One in 4th. 2016 three ran best Wait for Me in fourth. 2015, five tried best was Max Dynamite under Ruby in 4th rating 137. (that was when he was heard saying something(s) under his breath when Wicklow Brave jogged past under P Townend. Mind you he was probably even more cross two years later when he was on 11/1 shot Rennetti and Paul strolled past again, this time on Arctic Fire).
That means that from the last 22 winners were 9 novices and 10 second-season hurdlers. Plus Faivoir, Ch'tibello and Arctic Fire. The latter had placed in this before and in a Champion Hurdle. Faivior 11th to State Man the previous year. Does only tends to win with Bridget on board.
WEIGHT - Only six since 1960 have carried over 11-2 but having said that, ten of last 28 carried over 11st. Kargese, State Man, Ch'tibello, Arctic Fire, Blowing Wind, Spirit Leader and Rooster Booster all carried 11st or over. All bar Arctic Fire started 12/1 or under. Blowing Wind came straight from Sandown's Imperial Cup. Spirit Leader and Rooster Booster were 1st and 2nd in a Tote Gold Trophy. Alderwood at 20s, his 11-1 was in a compressed handicap where bottom weight had 10-8. Bottom weight last year 10-3 in a smallish field, 2024 it was 10-2 Absurde carried 10-10. 2023 bottom weight 10-6, Faivoir 10-7. 2022 10-6 2021 it was the Belfast Banter off 10st. Going back the previous three years has been 10-9 off 133, 10-4 127 and 10-5 off 133. Seems to go in and out of fashion.
TOP WEIGHTS - Since 2016 six horses have been placed in this carrying over 11-8. Racecard No 2 last year Absurde 3rd with 11-8, 2024 racecard No 1 Pied Piper 3rd at 14/1. In 2023 No 1 was Sharjah 4th at 10s, No 2 was Pied Piper 2nd at 12s. In 2017 Arctic Fire at 11-12 was the first winner to carry over 11-8 since 1960.
In 2023 and 2022 Ballyadam finished 5th on each occasion under 11-7 and 11-4. He finished 2nd to Appreciate It in a Supreme and 2nd and 3rd in the last two Coral Cups. He's 11 this year, mind you.
In 2021 Aramon 8/1 2nd off 149 carried 11-11. As did We Have A Dream in 2019. Diakali impressed in 4th 2014 with 11-12. (Backed it up when beaten on the line by The New One in the Aintree Hurdle). Mulllins theme? Fethard Player 2nd in 2016 carrying 11-6. Remiluc highest weighted placed horse in 2018 carrying 11-2.
RATINGS - Kargese 141 Absurde 138 (the Ebor winner with a Flat rating of 110? Ok). Faivoir 134, State Man 141, Belfast Banter 129, Saint Roi also tossed in off 137. Ch'tibello 146, Mohayeed 139. (Dan Skelton was all for pulling him out because of the ground). Arctic Fire's winning 158 beat L'Ami Serge off 152. The previous 12 to him were rated between 128 and 139. Superb Story, also from the Skeltons, 138. 22 from last 25 rated between 128 and 144. (Ch'tibello 146, Fire 158, Sporazene 151) Ratings over the last 10 between 129 and 158. Unhelpful.
Ratings to get a run - Going back from Absurde 130, 133, 134, 129 and winner, 133, 127, 133, 134. Only 16 declared in 2025. No fight to get a run.
RACING POST RATINGS -All bar five, Faivoir, State Man, Saint Roi, Ch'tibello and Mohayeed of the last 20 achieved their best RPR minimum of 129 on a left-handed track. Of those 20 all bar Kargese, Faivoir and Arctic Fire achieved their best RPR within their last three runs. Kargese four runs previous when 2nd in the Triumph. Absurde got 137 when 4th in the G1 DRF Novice last time. Faivoir seemed to like Ascot. Arctic Fire's best was when 11/2 lengths second to Faugheen in the Champion Hurdle. Belfast Banter last time out behind Echoes Of Rain in Naas. Ch'tibello achieved his 158 when 3rd of 5 to Yanworth in a Xmas Hurdle, Mohayeed achieved his best RPR of 147 last time out when 6l third to Buveur D'Air in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton. Superb Story best RPR of 139 last time out in the Greatwood Hurdle. A Skelton stat. Not sure on relevance.
Difficult to win from more than 1lb out of the handicap. Lots have tried and failed to do so since Prince of Bermuda last achieved this feat in 1980. (One no hoper from out of the handicap in the last 17 years). Belfast Banter was right on the 10st.
PRICE - Absurde opened 16s, returned 12s. Faivoir 33s. Belfast Banter, although given a fair word by Simon Rowlands on ATR, was also an unloved 33s. Kargese fav from a long way out returned 3/1. State Man a morning 4s to 11/4 fav, Saint Roi, 8s to SP 11/2 fav. People knew. Ch'tibello tipped up by Kealy and Segal in the Friday comic, a solid 8s in the morning, ignored by all, returned 12s. Mohaayed 33s, Arctic Fire 20s, Superb Story 8s (and Pricewise), Wicklow Brave 25s, Lac Fontana was 11s. Ted Veale 10s, Final Approach was 12/1. Used to not cross the 16/1 barrier. However going back 2012 Alderwood, 20s, '08 Silver Jaro 33s, American Trilogy and Thousand Stars also both at 20s.
Five favs and two joint favs in the last 25 including Willie's three in the last five. Desert Quest 4/1jf 2006. The last clear favourite before Saint Roi to win 2020 was Sporazene 7/1 2004.
Since '94 only Kargese, Ted Veale, Master Tern and Silver Jaro have won this having been beaten favourite last time out. This century still is one of the best paying race in the Festival for backing beaten favs last time. Three from 62 have won - profit £10 for £1 stake. Silver Jaro at 50s profited from the Pyscho ride of P Carberry (That's mischief now, remember Solwit, Bellvano, Very Wood, Nicanor amongst others). Lark In The Morning as well last year, unpl. Four ran 2024, Magical Zoe in 4th. Another Ebor winner! Six ran 2023, best finishers 3rd and 4th. Three ran in each of the previous two yrs, best Third Time Lucki 6th in 2021. 2020 six ran, best Buildmeupbuttercup in 4th. Two ran in 2019, best was Whiskey Sour 5/1 fav in fourth. Placed again. Both Ted Veale and Silver Jaro were Irish trained (sorry Jonjo). Kargese first BF last time winner since 2013. Had been turned over at 2/5 at Ascot.
Irish trained winners - Nine of the 16 runners last year, a 1-2-3-4. 12 of the 17 2024, a 1-3-4. 2023 24 stong field split 12 each. Faivoir repelled the hoardes who finished 2-3-4-5. In 2022 only eight of the 26. An Irish 1-3. In 2021 8 from 25 were GB. An Irish 1-2-4. 2020 - 11 of the 24 were trained in Ireland resulting in a 1-2-3-4-6-7. Pretty solid, you'd have to say. In 2019, 8 of the 26 IRE, best finisher Whiskey Sour 4th. In 2018, 11 of the 27 runners were between Willie Mullins, Gordon Elliott and Joseph O'Brien. Willie returned the best result with 3rd and 5th home. In 2017 Willie Mullins' Arctic Fire won, six IRE. In 2016 from 9 runners, only Fethard Player 2nd finished in the first seven home. In 2015 13 from the 25 runners were Irish Trained. Filled the first 6 places. W Mullins 1st, 4th, 5th and 6th. In 2014 only 2nd, 4th and 5th from 7 runners. 2012 Alderwood (8 runners), 2011 Final Approach (5 runners), 2010 Thousand Stars (6 runners), Silver Jaro '08 won from Psycho (7 runners), Pedrobob '07. Spirit Leader ’03 was first Irish trained winner since ’76. Numbers going across increasing. Absurde the only Irish trained winner in seven to have recent Leopardstown form.
Speaking of domination, Willie Mullins has had 57 runners in the past 16. Eight winners. Bouncing along as top trainer ever in this Festival race. Four runners last year, a 1-2-4. Five in 2024, best after Absurde was 7th. Four in 2023, best Sharjah 10/1 fourth under Patrick. Five in each of the previous two years, after State Man, Farout best in 9th. In 2021 best home Ciel De Neige in 9th, only his third most fancied. 2020 Five also came resulting in a 1-2-4. Saint Roi 11/2 fav, Thousand Stars 20s, Final Approach 10s, Wicklow Brave 25s, Arctic Fire 20s. Also seconds with Aramon 8/1, Arctic Fire 7s, Tennis Cap 11s, a third with Whiskey Sour and 4ths with Buildmeupbuttercup 16/1, Whiskey Sour 5s, Diakali 5s Max Dynamite 14s. Touch churlish to say that he has yet to have a Festival h'cap winner over a distance more than 2m 5f. Hardly needs one.
The current GB king of the County Hurdle is Dan Skelton, with four winners in the last ten. He is no longer to be referred to as Paul Nicholls's ex pupil. Faivoir, Ch'tibello, Mohaayed, and Superb Story. None were novices unlike Pembroke, his unplaced 2023 9/2 fav and Valgrand 8/1 and 15th last year. All bar Faivoir were given long breaks before this race, none seen since Boxing Day. Faivoir might as well have been as he was PU before three out in the Betfair Hurdle. Had been 11th in this in 2022, Mohaayed was 7th in 2019. West Cork 4th in 2022, Third Time Lucki 6th 2021 both SP single figures. One runner 2024. L'Eau Du Sud, the 7/2 fav, a fine 2nd. He also had been 2nd in the Betfair Hurdle.
Paul Nicholls used to be the man. 4 wins in the last 22. Used to be the only home trainer able to hold the Irish hordes at bay. ’04 Sporazene, ’06 Desert Quest, '09 American Trilogy and 2014 Lac Fontana. Also ’06 Pirate Flagship 4th ’07 Ouninpohja 2nd. 2012 Edgardo Sol, 2nd at 25/1, also finished 6th in 2013. Afadil good run in 5th 2024 at 40s. Five outsiders ran in total over the previous five years, well down the field on each occasion. Did pick up the Betfair Hurdle 2020 with Pic D'orhy at 33s. No runner last year.
N Henderson - 0 from 36 this century (First Street a good 2nd 2022 at 16s. Also We Have A Dream 2nd under a big weight).
G Elliott's 0 from 21 seems a trifle harsh (Ndawi 2nd at 25s last year en route to stealing a Galway Hurdle, Pied Piper 3rd 2024, 2nd to 2023, Petit Mouchoir, 2nd in 2021 at 22s, Eclair De Beaufeu 4th). He's had chances.
A weird thing to say but only two GB trainers have won this since Fontanesi in 2005. P Nicholls and D Skelton
Tony Mulllins (Willie's brother) trained both Alderwood 20s 2012 and Pedrobob 8s 2007.
Ruby Walsh used to be the most successful jockey with four wins. His finish on Final Approach 2011 was a cracker. But didn't win it again (or any other Festival h'cap for that matter up to retirement). Paul Townend passed him last year. Five from the last 11. B Geraghty as owner's jockey got the pick on Saint Roi. Paul Townend rode all the others. Rides this race well.
BLINKERS, CHEEKPIECES etc - Six last year including Kargese in her usual hood. Ethical Diamond 4th in a hood. 2024 three, Afadil cheekpieces in 5th best. In 2023 seven ran, nothing in the first 12. Five ran 2022, best First Street 2nd in his usual hood. 2021 eight ran, only Petit Mouchoir 2nd in his usual cheekpieces finished in the first eight. Three in 2020, all down the field. 10 wore headgear in the 2019 renewal, none finished in the first five. Three tried in 2018, all unplaced. 2017 Arctic Fire won in his usual hood. Apart from him the only one other blinkered winner in last 21 was American Trilogy, his second run in blinkers. In 2017, apart from Arctic Fire, five others tried, all unplaced. Eleven went to post in 2016, including three first timers, best Fethard Player, 2nd, in the hood he always wore. Nine tried in 2015, best finisher 5th. A massive 12 from 28 wore headgear in 2014 (No, I don't know if that's a record) best finishers Arctic Fire 2nd and Diakali 4th both in hoods. Hoods get placed.
31 of last 39 in first 4 on previous outing (Not Faivior, '14, '12, '10 or '09) All the last 10 bar Faivoir. Don't get too excited about this. May not be much of a distinguisher.
THE SAINT ROI BOMB - First since Thumbs Up in 1993 not to have already run in a handicap hurdle. 75 had tried since '93. Not only that but Aramon in 2nd had never run in one before, either. Should have referred myself to the 'Willie Mullins doesn't give a monkeys about stats' stat. State Man, Absurde and Karges hammered further nails into the coffin of this stat. Neither Ethical Diamond nor Daddy Long Legs ever been near a h'cap, Absurde just winning this one in 2023. Ran three further qualifiers in 2022, all down the field. 2023 Filey Bay the best of the novices, he had already run in five hurdles.
Four of the last 19 ran 'well' in the Totesport/Betfair Trophy (plus Remiluc 2nd 2018 at 50s). Faivoir PU
No winner of the Dovecote that year has won a Festival handicap hurdle in the last 30-odd yrs. Don't think that many try.
No horse has won two of these. Mind you, the Coral Cup had the same stat last year. Kargese jumping fences
DUBLIN RACING FESTIVAL (and associated races) - 2011 Final Approach won the Boylesports and this. 2013 Ted Veale 3rd at Leopardstown before winning here. 2014 Flaxen Flare, 5th here, was 2nd in the Boylesports. Silver Jaro had been 3rd in Dublin, two races before this. 2015 Boylesports Modem was 2nd but well down the field here. 2016 Henry Higgins Leopardstown winner unpl here. 2017 now the Coral Hurdle none of the first three home ran here. 2018 and in 2019 (now the Ladbroke Hurdle) three came from Leopardstown, all unplaced here. Off You Go didn't come here either year. 2020 Mr. Charles Byrnes' Thesedaysaregone won at Leopardstown, 3rd in the Coral Cup. Buildmeupbuttercup 5th and Embittered 6th at Leop, 3rd and 4th here. 2021 1st - 2nd - 4th - 6th came from Dublin finished 7th - 17th - 15th and 4th (Eclair De Beaufeu). 2022 Call My Lyreen won in Dublin. Those that came finished 14th - 6th - Fell - 5th - 22nd. 2023 Ballyadam 3rd, then 5th here, Anna Bunina 4th, only 9th here. 2024 2nd and 3rd in Dublin finished 4th and 7th here. 2025 1st and 3rd in DRF finished 16th (last) and 10th.
COURSE WINNERS - Faivoir 2023 first since Lac Fontana 2014 to win this having been a course winner. Favoir had won an April 2m 4f novice hurdle and a 2m maiden hurdle, both at odds on. Lac Fontana only the second horse after Master Tern (both second season novices) to win this as previous course winner since at least 1991. Both had won that same course handicap hurdle in January. Four last year, best Absurde 3rd.
2024 Faivoir and Pied Piper came again, 6th and 3rd. Two others in 2023 Pied Piper 2nd. Five big Cs in 2022, best West Cork , the Greatwood winner, 4th. 2021 only Strong Glance carried the chalice, 18th. 2020 Mohayeed only qualifier, 10th. Six course winners ran in 2019, none finished in the first six. Of the eight course winners to run in 2018, Remiluc went close in second. Arctic Fire had finished second twice in two previous Festivals but no C.
17 from the last 24 winners had no course placed form. Only 10 from the last 27 had actually run at a previous Festival. Kargese 2nd in the Triumph. Arctic Fire by far the best course form of those. Another way is that 15 from the last 20 had no previous Festival Form.
15 from last 22 had been beaten here before in a hurdle. Ted Veale, Alderwood, Final Approach and Spirit Leader had also not run here before. First season Irish novices unlikely a la Absurde.
Maiden hurdle at Cheltenham now run in November has had an interesting history. '10 King of the Night won easy in Oct 'still right there when fell 4 out' in Sir Des Champs's Festival win. '09 The Jigsaw Man won four races after. In '07 race was won easy by Snap Tie who went on to finish 3rd in the Supreme Novices. 2012 winner Court Minstrel didn't run at festival but won G2 at Ayr in April. 2014 Lac Fontana did the double. Didn't work for four years then in 2018 Thomas Darby bt Elixir Du Nuts. Thomas Darby then went on to be 2nd to Klassical Dream here. 2020 in October Heaven Help Us bt Master Debonair and Fred. Reasonable novice form for both years. 2022 Top Bandit unpld. 2023 Fennor Cross no chance in the Supreme but then took a big 2m 4f handicap at Aintree. Didn't work last two years. Soldier Reeves from Gaelic Pride.
Skybet Supreme Novice Trial at Cheltenham has produced American Trilogy and Lac Fontana. For Pleasure 40s ran well to finish 3rd last year. I Like To Move It unplcd 2022. Fennor Cross won again 2023. Last year Lookaway then 2nd in a Challow. Valgrand.
Imperial Cup (the weekend before). Moody Man and Blowing Wind won under a big weight and Carlito Brigante finished second. Floyd also did the double in 1985. Last two Pipe trained Imperial winners Gaspara and Ashkazar took the easier route with the Fred Winter 4 yr old handicap. '09 Dave's Dream 7/2 fav here and unplaced. '11 Alarazi unplaced favourite here. No luck in the next three. 2015 Ebony Express won at Sandown and then finished 19th behind Wicklow Brave who had refused to go a yard at Sandown at 9/1. Didn't make me laugh at the time. 2016 Flying Angel 2nd in Imperial Cup then 2nd in Martin Pipe Conditionals. No good in 2019, abandoned 2020, 2021 Langer Dan hosed up at Sandown, then was unlucky enough to meet an aeroplane called Galopin Des Champs in the Martin Pipe. 2022 Surprise Package hosed up at Sandown, then 6th here at 9s. Go Dante has won this the last two years. Nothing of note came here.
22 from last 29 had run at least 4 times that season but only three of the last 10 (not most of Willie's, maximum two runs, Skeltons doing the same, Favoir, Superb Story twice, Lac Fontana, three runs, Final Approach, just the two). Mind you this was Belfast Banter's 12th run since the 17th June. Wicklow Brave at least had started four races. Some in his own time. Used to say 'battle hardened.' Not so sure now. Class winning now.
All bar Willie's Absurde and State Man of the last 26 between 4 and 19 total runs over hurdles. (Kargese 10, three in France, Absurde 4 (the minimum), State 3 in total, Saint Roi only 2 in IRE, Faivoir 14, Banter 14, Ch'tibello has extended this stat from 17 to 19 runs. Mohayeed 9, Arctic Fire 17, Ted Veale and American T only 4). 15 of the last 20 no more than 12 runs over hurdles.
15 from last 28 ran in the last 35 days (not those that came direct from the Boylesports or Trials day, Not Kargese 55, State, 45, Saint Roi 1st Jan, Mohayeed Boxing Day, Ch'tibello 8th Dec). Better to say only Absurde, Faivoir, State Man and Belfast Banter of the last 10 seen since 1st January. Belfast Banter 19 days. If State Man hadn't fallen at Limerick 26th Dec when about to win, I would think we wouldn't have seen him again, either.
3 of the last 24 winners carried a penalty (from small numbers, the last Crooks Peak 5lb ex 2019 finished 20th).
WINNING CONDITIONAL JOCKEYS - 2018 Bridget Andrews (3) on Mohayeed joined Katie Walsh (3) 2010, Jimmy Moffatt (3) on a famous win with Home Counties 1995, David Bridgewater (7) on Winnie The Witch 1991. (The latter two winning for their fathers). Three last year, best Freddie Mitchell (3) 5th. Four in 2024, Danny Gilligan (3) 3rd on Pied Piper. 2023 Three unplaced. (One could say, Bridget is good at this). Five in 2022, best Conor Orr (3) on Colonel Mustard. Four in 2021, best Jordan Gainford (7) 2nd on Petit Mouchoir. Good ride. 2020 Five tried, best Mr Sam Waley-Cohen(3) 5th on Elusive Belle, picked off by the finishers. Seven tried in 2019, none better than 10th. Five others finished behind Bridget and Mohaayed, Harry Reed (5) in second, and Daniel Sansom (5) in fourth. Seven in 2017, best finisher JJ Slevin (3) in 6th. Five in 2016 best David Mullins (3) on Fethard Player in 2nd.
David Mullins had already won a G1 Morgiana on Nichols Canyon, Katie had already won the 4 miler that week on Poker de Sivola, Jordan Gainford on The Shunter. This was Bridget Andrews' first major success, though she had won a Cl2 handicap hurdle at Haydock.
Don't be betting with a bookie who doesn't pay at least 5th place. A lot will go six, depending on numbers, Skybet usually eight.
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