'I can't recommend this enough.' - Rory Delargy
'Lots of interesting stuff on Gaultstats...certainly things I didn't know.' - Matt Tombs
'A shining galaxy of race by race stats..each hand-tooled..packed with more nuggets than a KFC warehouse in a chicken glut.' - surfnturfRP
'There's no place like this on earth.' Ruby Walsh. 'This doesn't happen to people like us.' Maxine O'Sullivan. 'I wish I had the words, this is just a magical place,' Rachael Blackmore. 'It's like an amphitheatre. 'One winner at Cheltenham is what it's all about,' Kim Bailey. National Hunt owners, trainers and jockeys dream about winning at this Festival. Being involved with a winner ensures an entry into the National Hunt Hall of Fame even if the race concerned may 'only' be the quirky Cross Country. Michael O'Leary 'It's a phenomenal destination. The experience of the four days is unbelievable.'
The higher the grade of race, the more likely that horses will repeat or improve on their last run. No higher grade than here. And since all concerned are doing their damnest to win, trends can emerge of those most likely (or not) to succeed.
'If (we) could learn from history, what lessons it might teach us.' - Samuel Taylor Coleridge
I first attended the Cheltenham Festival in 1985 and have been collecting stuff about it since. It's just marvellous fun. After doing this for 35 plus years, I am confident that there are only two Cheltenham Stats Rules. They are 1. The beauty of any Cheltenham Stat lies solely in the eye of the beholder and 2. All of them will pass. It is only a matter of when. The former means that you decide what's relevant. If it has happened ten Festivals in a row, you might decide it's not going to happen this time. Fine. I have yet to find a rule book that demands how one should interpret Cheltenham Festival Trends. T'is your money and I won't get offended. Last March on the Betfair Podcast Vanessa had a right rant about 'stupid' Festival Betting Stats. Well, don't use them, then. Over the past decade I have continually laid a lot of short-priced Arkle favourites on the 'surely that run has got to stop sometime' theory. Look where it's got me.
Festival Big Beast Trends get shot down most years. Be prepared for that. Is it actually time for the Bula stat to go? No Supreme/Champion Hurdle double since 1971. Challow winner to take Ballymore? These are the thoughts that keep me awake at night. 2022 - FRE bred wins the 3m Grade 1 Novice Chase, the first since 2006. 2021 - Mare wins Queen Mother. Never happened before. 2020 - Saint Roi the first since Thumbs Up in '93 to win a County Hurdle on a first ever handicap run. Same stat torpedoed by State Man. 2019 - Espoir D'Allen, an unconsidered five year old, strolled home in the Champion Hurdle. But as one disappears, other 'rock solid' stats will take their place. Arkle favourites, anyone?
Horses identified in italics are being aimed to contest the race about which you are reading. As the countdown continues effort will be made to update races with confirmed runners and how they might fit in (or out).
The General Trends page covers information and musings that don't really refer to any specific race. This includes jockeys, trainers, how W Mullins is no respecter of Cheltenham stats, stats on Pricewise, course winners, Gault's Momentum Theory, Fate of the Favourites et al. It is hoped some year that this section may get shorter. Click on the links and share the concerns of family and friends as to how I spend six weeks at the start of every year. There's a quiz and other stuff, including a stats review of the 2022 and 2021 Festivals. 'Which Bookmaker?' can cause the odd irritation to Twitter bookmaker reps but you won't get the same anywhere else that needs sponsorship to survive.
It's my site, and my decision not to have any ads. There's no app but should you wish, you can put a shortcut on your phone/PC. The Honours Boards will now scroll from left to right on the phone version. Small IT wins for Bryan in 2022. Hopeful this year that the site is tidier.
By 11 am each Festival day my selections for that day will be at the top of this page. Feel free to disagree.
Feedback positive and constructive welcomed at https://twitter.com/gaultstats or email email@example.com. Reasonable theories will be researched. As I am old fashioned, I don't consider the Punchestown or Galway Festivals as being 'this season'. A big continued thank you to Ashleigh Watson at firstname.lastname@example.org for her work, without which, this wouldn't be here.
Good luck. I hope this tool brings you success, please don't forget to give. And let's not take it too seriously. It is meant to be fun.
As ever, a labour of love,