Gaultstats - Cheltenham 2025
The Only Trends You'll Need
'You know the drill. Take advantage of Bryan's obsession, then you do something good for a worthy cause. Can't recommend this enough.' Rory Delargy
http://www.justgiving.com/page/bryan-gault-1704309337466
The final total for my Just Giving Page to My Name's Doddie Foundation reached £3206, well above the target set. My humble thanks to all those who took the time to give and for their generosity. I hope Gstats helped them to make a few quid. I have decided that Gaultstats 2025 will be the final edition of my obsession. Been doing this for a long time now, have enjoyed it immensely but each year I seem to rely more and more on the same group of people to donate. That's not fair. There are probably about 14000 other site users who do not. But that's just the way life is. To next year.
Small personal update. On the Saturday before the 2024 Festival I collapsed and fainted in the street on the way to meet friends and watch the England v Ireland Six Nations match. Some have said it was lucky I missed the game. After being coaxed into an ambulance, it was then discovered in the Ulster Hospital that I had a serious problem with my aortic valve. This controls the flow of blood to and from your heart. It seems that mine was about to close over completely. And then everything stops. Believed to be a hereditary issue. On Friday 29th March I underwent open heart surgery in the Royal Victoria, Belfast. The valve was replaced by a cow's heart aortic valve. Everything appears to have been a success. Six days later on Thursday 4th, I was released to go home into Sheelah's care. I am exhausted but healthy. It will probably take me about six to eight weeks to fully recover. I have promised to take things slowly and behave.
Two things. In my total of 26 days in the two hospitals, I met and was cared for by a fantastic group of NHS Professionals, doctors, surgeons, anaesthetists, ambulance personnel, nurses, ICU nurses, nursing assistants, cleaners et al. The list seemed endless. I have stayed in worse 4 star hotels than the single rooms in the Ulster Hospital. As I went along, I made a conscious effort to learn Christian names, as all I could offer in return was politeness and gratitude. I have nothing but praise and thanks for the amazing treatment I received, both the speed and the quality. Here's to Rick, Trinde, Horst, Amore, Gwynne, Gwathy, Bbebe, Catherine, Charlene, Babu, Stephanie, Benj, Christine, Andrew, Maggie, Iain, Ryan amongst many others. Great, great people. We are so fortunate to have this health service. Sheelah and I have estimated that to get this work done in the private sector would have cost circa £40k. I am now aware that reciprocal operations are carried out on an all Ireland basis both for patients in Dublin and in Belfast. Important but little known.
Not to put too fine a point on it but the luck I've had here doesn't bear thinking about. If something is not quite right with your health, or odd things are happening, please GO AND SEE A DOCTOR. None of us are indestructible. Sheelah, my wife, has very strong stats that suggest men are particularly stupid at this.
Thanks to everyone (many who I have never met) for the kind messages.Bryan.
My 'Fixing The Festival' now updated post 2024 Festival. Not sure Kevin Blake will be happy.
'....it's insane, the depth...I love this treasure trove of numbers...' Ross Brierley - In The Know RP.
'Bryan puts in a great shift with the site every year for excellent causes. I’ve been using away at it.. and, as ever, it’s very good.' - Tony Keenan - Off The Fence
'Lots of interesting stuff on Gaultstats...certainly things I didn't know.' - Matt Tombs
'A shining galaxy of race by race stats..each hand-tooled..packed with more nuggets than a KFC warehouse in a chicken glut.' - surfnturfRP
'Shamefully my first time donating despite your site being possibly my most viewed. A great cause, and to the first of many donations in the future' - Robert on justgiving page.
'Thanks as always, Bryan. GStats led me straight to Maskada in the Grand Annual so I’m delighted to share the profits with your great causes.' - Adam.
'Bryan, you do amazing stuff, I wait every year for your wisdom...Great cause..thanks.' - Colm
'There's no place like this on earth.' Ruby Walsh. 'This doesn't happen to people like us.' Maxine O'Sullivan. 'I wish I had the words, this is just a magical place,' Rachael Blackmore. 'One winner at Cheltenham is what it's all about,' Kim Bailey. National Hunt owners, trainers and jockeys dream about winning at this Festival. Being involved with a winner ensures an entry into the National Hunt Hall of Fame even if the race concerned may 'only' be the quirky Cross Country. Michael O'Leary 'The experience of the four days is unbelievable.'
The higher the grade of race, the more likely that horses will repeat or improve on their last run. No higher grade than here. And since all concerned are doing their damnest to win, trends can emerge of those most likely (or not) to succeed.
Using Gaultstats
'If (we) could learn from history, what lessons it might teach us.' - Samuel Taylor Coleridge
For me, there are only two Cheltenham Trends Rules.
1. The beauty of any Cheltenham Stat lies solely in the eye of the beholder. This means that you, the reader, decide what is relevant. If it has happened ten Festivals in a row, you might decide it's not going to happen this time. Fine. No rule book demands how one should interpret Cheltenham Festival Trends. T'is your money and I won't get offended. Personally, I'm not that keen on betting stats, except those that tell me that the favourite has a 'poor record in this race.' I'm a bit obtuse. The unnamed favourite will win, some year.
2. All stats will pass. It is only a matter of when. Festival Big Beast Trends get shot down most years. Be prepared for that. The Bula stat, who was Bula, laughed Constitution Hill. First Supreme/Champion Hurdle double since 1971. Hatton's Grace runner wins Stayers. The first this century. Never mind those two. At last year's Festival six, yes six of the 28 races were won by horses who had been Beaten Favourite BF last time out. At SP prices including 18/1 twice. 10/1, 22/1. One of my favourite stats, buried. 2022 - L'Homme Presse wins the 3m Grade 1 Novice Chase, the first FRE bred since 2006. 2021 - Mare wins Queen Mother. Never happened before. 2020 - Saint Roi, the first since Thumbs Up in '93 to win a County Hurdle on a first ever handicap run. 2019 Espoir D'Allen, an unconsidered five year old, strolled home in the Champion Hurdle. But as one disappears, other 'rock solid' stats will take their place. Was going to say short priced Arkle favourites, but that seems to have gone?
Horses identified in italics are being aimed to contest the race about which you are reading. As the countdown continues effort will be made to update races with confirmed runners and how they might fit in (or out).
The General Trends page covers information and musings that don't really refer to any specific race. This includes jockeys, trainers, how W Mullins is no respecter of Cheltenham stats, stats on Pricewise, course winners, Gault's Momentum Theory, Fate of the Favourites et al. A big Gstats aim in 2024 is to make this section shorter. Click on the links and share the concerns of family and friends as to how I spend six weeks at the start of every year. There's a quiz and other stuff, including a stats review of the 2023 Festival. 'Which Bookmaker?' can cause the odd irritation to Twitter bookmaker reps but you won't get the same anywhere else that needs sponsorship to survive.It's my site and my decision not to have any ads. There's no app but should you wish, you can put a shortcut on your phone/PC. The Honours Boards should scroll from left to right on the phone version. I'm not happy that the phone version is not as tidy as the PC but my 'Happiness' tech people tell me there is little they can do.
By 11 am each Festival day my selections for that day will be at the top of this page. Feel free to disagree.
Feedback positive and constructive welcomed at https://twitter.com/gaultstats or email bgault01@gmail.com. Reasonable theories will be researched. As I am old fashioned, I still don't consider the Punchestown or Galway Festivals as being 'this season.' A big continued thank you to Ashleigh Watson at ash@coppersquareni.com for her work, without which, this wouldn't be here. And to John, for his excellent voluntary proofreading.
Good luck. I hope this tool brings you success and profit, please don't forget to give. And let's not take it too seriously. It is meant to be fun.
As ever, a labour of love,
Bryan