Novices - Five winners in the last nine - But only Jagwar of the last four. From the last 29 races, 10 winners, five seconds, three thirds and two fourths were novices. Seven ran in each of the last three years, a 1-2-3 last year, Crebilly best in 2nd 2024, 2023 So Scottish 7th. Of six novices in 2022, Imperial Alcazar 2nd at 7/2 fav. It was a 1-4-5 in 2021 with Coole Cody and Assemble coming in behind the Shunter. Nine of the 23 strong field that year were novices. Coole Cody was a novice chaser at 10yrs of age. Simply The Betts, winner, the flag bearer from three in 2020. Three came in 2019, Spiritofthegames 3rd, Didero Vallis 5th. The Storyteller, novice winner in 2018 from two qualifiers. A 1-2 in 2017 from seven qualifiers. 2016 a 4th from 2 runners. 2015 3rd and 5th from 4 runners. 1st and 2nd 2010 from five qualifiers, ’04 Tikram 1st.

All bar The Storyteller and Road To Respect of the last seven winning novices had at least placed course form. Those two had never raced here before. Jagwar won the Timeform nov h'cap chase on Trials day. The Shunter won a Greatwood. Ping Pong Sivola, 2nd as a novice in '09 also had winning course form. The last seven novice winners were rated 139, 140 149, 147, 145, 135 and Tikram at 133.

11 of the last 12 no more than 12 previous chases. Jagwar only four. Shakem Up'arry and Seddon both 12, Coole Cody 14, The Shunter 5, Simply The Betts 4, Siruh Du Lac 7, The Storyteller 3, Road To Respect 5, Empire Of Dirt 11, Darna 9, Ballynagour 8 runs, Carrickboy 16 runs. Mister McGoldrick previously third in a QM had 33 previous chases before winning this.

For recency purposes, Coole Cody, Siruh du Lac and Empire Of Dirt won when second-season chasers.

WEIGHT - Jagwar 10-10, Shakem 11-5, Seddon 11-0, Coole Cody 11-2, Simply The Betts 11- 4, The Storyteller 11- 4, Mister McGoldrick '08 11-7 and Non So ’06 11-3 are the only ones since Elfast '94 to carry 11st or more to victory. That's six in 28 yrs and five of the last eight. Along with those, Half Free (three-time Festival winner) and dual winners Elfast and The Tsarevich, no other winner since ’77 carried more than 11st to victory. Mister McGoldrick 11-7 2008 is the only horse this century to carry more than 11-5 to victory.

Last year bottom weight was 10-2. In 2024 10-6, 2023 it was 10-4. 2022 bottom weight 10st, Imperial Alcazar 11-9 in second place. In 2021 11 of the 23 carried over 11st. Top Notch in 3rd carried 11-12. Bottom weight 10-2. In 2020 it was 13 over 11st including the first six home. Bottom weight was 10-9. In 2019 Siruh Du Lac won with 10-8, just seven of the field carried over the 11st, Janika fav with 11-12 finished 2nd, Spritofthegames 3rd with 11-3 (and 6th in 2020 under 11-4). 2018 The Storyteller with 11-4 the only one in the first six over 11st. Eight qualifiers.

The Ryanair takes the best 155+ rated horses but placed horses here can carry big weights. See Kevin Blake's repeatedly strong views about top weights in handicaps.

RATINGS - Simply The Betts off 149 top rated winner in 22. See the Honours Board. Jagwar 139, Shakem 143, Seddon 143, Coole Cody 145, The Shunter 140, Siruh Du Lac 141, Road To Respect 145, Empire of Dirt 142, Darna and Ballynagour both at 140 Carrickboy 136, Salut Flo 137. (29 from last 35 not rated above 142). Last 12 all rated 139 to 149. Ratings band in each race going back have gone from last year 157-131, 2024 152 -130, 2023 157 - 133, 2022 - 154 to 130, then 157 to 140, 156 to 135. There hasn't been a winner rated 150 plus since The Tsarevich in 1986.

4 of the last 29 winners out of handicap. Last one Tikram 3lb 'wrong' in '04. '09 Ping Pong Sivola 1lb 'wrong', favourite and 2nd. 2012 two out of the handicap and unplaced. Recently, not likely to happen that much although Guy ran in 2022 carrying only 10st.

CARRY A PENALTY? - Eight of the last 19 runners carrying a penalty have been placed. Only one ran in the last eight yeurs, out with the washing. Thomas Crapper only qualifier in 2017, finished 4th. 2011 Holmwood only qualifier and won, '09 sole qualifier Pop was 'going ok when fell 4 out’.

PRICE - Jagwar 3/1f, The Shunter 9/4F in a field of 23, Simply The Betts 100/30F and The Storyteller at 5/1F (backed from 7s on course) join Salut Flo at 9/2 to be the first favourites to win since Majadou '99 and then before that Political Pop '81. Besides those four favourites Siruh Du Lac at 9/2 2018 and Shakem 8s last year, this century the rest of the SPs range between 12/1 and 66/1. Seddon 20/1, Coole Cody 22/1. Before Siruh the previous 4 winners returned at 14s, 16s, 33s (Darna, the Pricewise day of race tip at 40s), 12s and Carrickboy at 50s.

Summary - Four of the last eight favs have obliged. 17 of the last 23, 12/1 or bigger.

TRIP - All bar Non So this century had been successful over trips between 2m3f and 2m5f (Non So who may have been, if he hadn’t fallen two out in one such chase).

AGED 10 AND ABOVE - Jagwar at 6 yrs breaks the 10 yrs and above run. Shakem Up'Arry, Seddon both 10 yrs of age. Coole Cody was aged 11 in 2022 (but only a second season chaser). 10 yrs + had been 0 from 58 since Holmwood Legend, Mister McGoldrick 11 yrs when he won (at tote price £146/1) Young Spartacus a 10 yr old winner in '03. Apart from them, in the last 23 years, only 12 others aged ten and above have paid a place dividend. Nine others over the past three years failed to trouble the scorers. In 2022 Spiritofthegames 3rd at 12s from five runners. 2021, nine had a go, including Top Notch 50/1 3rd and Coole Cody 22/1 4th, both 10 yr olds. In 2020 three qualified, best finisher 8th. 2019, seven ran, all unplaced, 2018 Splash Of Ginge, 25s in 2nd, Ballyalton, 11 yrs, 25s in 4th from five qualifiers. In 2017 Thomas Crapper 7s and 4th, 2014 Tatenen 3rd at 33s, 2013 Tartak 4th, both 10 yr olds, '10 Mr McGoldrick. a 13 yr old, 33/1 4th.

Therefore, in the last 22 renewals there have been 18 placed aged 10 yrs and above including the six winners. All bar Splash Of Ginge, Holmwood and Tatenen had previous placed course form. That leaves 15. Top Notch had been 2nd in both a Triumph and a JLT, Coole Cody won the Paddy Power in 2020 and the Caspian Caviar in 2021. Seddon won a 12k course h'cap hurdle in October. Shakem won the New Years Day G3 h'cap. These 18 came from a total of 73 horses aged 10 and above. Prices of the 18 ranged from 7s to 66s. Worth considering, if they are aged 10+ and able to get into this, it is very likely that a few of them have been round here before with some success.

PREVIOUS WINS - Mister McGoldrick in 2008 the last to have already won a graded conditions race over either hurdles or fences. As said above both Shakem and Coole Cody had already won Grade 3 handicaps. Which may be more difficult. Jagwar had never run in one.

RETURNERS can run well in this race. Two dual winners, Elfast and The Tsarevich. Shakem had been 3rd in 2023. Coole Cody, Spiritofthegames, Mister McGoldrick, Dublin Flyer, Smartie Express, King of the Lot and Fondmort were placed in this on more than one occasion. Palarshan 2nd '07 finished 5th '08. In 2012 Divers finished 4th in this a year after winning the novice handicap chase on the Tuesday. Tartak finished 5th and 3rd in 2012 and 2013, the first time as top weight, 2013 he was bottom weight. Look out for Jagwar, Thecompanysergeant, Masaccio and Mars Harper.

NEW COURSE CHASE FORM - Jagwar won last time out on the New Course. Shakem had three previous runs on the New Course finishing 531. Seddon had never competed a chase on the New Course. Coole Cody had raced on it seven times, winning a Grade 3. The Shunter had never been on it, Farclas won a Triumph, Top Notch 2nd in a Triumph and in a JLT. In 2020 year all bar Ben Dundee of the first six home had rock-solid New Course form. 1st, 3rd and 4th were New Course winners, 2nd and 6th had been placed in G3 New Course h'caps. Before that we had Siruh Du Lac (New Course winner last time). The previous three winners were Irish Trained and had never raced here before. Not relevant now as this has been moved to Tuesday.

Probably better classified as - Every winner this century bar three of the last five Irish trained and Great Endeavour (a novice with only 3 runs) had contested a race at the track. Jagwar, Shakem, Coole Cody, Simply The Betts and Siruh Du Lac join Young Spartacus 2003 to be the only winners this century to have previously won a New Course chase. That's 6 from 24. See above paragragh.

24 from last 34 had competed at a previous Festival (the other 10 had less than 12 chase runs, Jagwar 4, Shunter 5, Siruh 7, Storyteller 3, Respect 5, Empire 11). We know all about Shakem and Coole Cody but Seddon had finished 7th in a Ballymore behind City Island. Simply The Betts 10th to Summerville Boy in the 2019 Supreme. Four had run in the County. Ballynagour 8th to Carrickboy in 2013, Carrickboy 6th in a Close Bros, Great Endeavour unpl in '09 Coral Cup. Something Wells 'disputing 4th when fell in '08 Close Bros. Mister McGoldrick placed in '06 Queen Mother. Six of the last 18 winners were in their 3rd season chasing including Seddon. Eight of the last 10 were either novices or second season chasers. All 10 bar Jagwar had previously run in a Graded novice hurdle or novice chase.

All this century had won at Class 3 level or higher. But only Shakem, Coole Cody, The Shunter, Siruh Du Lac and Empire of Dirt of the last 15 had previously won a Graded Race ( the former four G3 course handicaps, the latter the £60k Leopardstown Chase over 2m 5f). The Storyteller had won a 9k euro Novice Hurdle, but only a beginners chase. Jagwar and Simply The Betts that Cl2 Timeform Nov course H'cap Chase in January.

TRAINERS

M/D.Pipe. Seven winners. Pretty good but sadly no longer on the honours board. M Pipe won four in five years between '97 and '02 with four different horses and four different jockeys. D. Pipe won three in the five years between 2010 and 2014. No runner last year and Fighter Allen 100/1 PU 2024. No runner in three of the previous four years. Placed runners include Eamon An Cnoic 10/1 4th 2019, (12th at 40s 2021), Kings Socks 7/1 in 5th 2018, Starchitect 5th 6/1 in 2017, Kings Palace 3rd at 11s 2016 and Monetaire 11/2 fav second in 2015 after a tardy start. Great Endeavour winner 2010. 2011 Consigliere 4th, Matuhi 6th. 2013 four runners all unpl including Ballynagour 7/2 fav. That year Matuhi suffered a fatal fall at the last when in 3rd. Ballynagour won in 2014. Out of a total of 21 runners in David's 13 years, his three winners returned at 8/1, 9/2f and 12/1. According to the Racing Post race reports they all shortened in price on course in the run-up to the race. Imagine that. As did Starchitect. During the 12 years, his only other three horses running at single-figure prices were Starchitect, Ballynagour 7/2 fav unpl and Notus de la Tour 8/1 fell at the third fence in Salut Flo's year. One of the few Festival races where they can still have a go.

OWNERS - Celebre D'Allen 5th 2022 10th last year, (P Hobbs) owned by Allan Stennett has twice won courtesy of Salut Flo and Ballynagour.

N Henderson - Four winners, but none since 2006. Nos 1 and 2 on the race card 2021, Top Notch 3rd at 50s, Caribean Boy 7th. No runner five of the last six years. In 2019 Janika, well punted 3/1 fav in 2nd. 2016 Full Shift 4th, nothing placed in the previous six years.

P Nicholls has never won this (and is well aware of the fact if you read his Betfair column). Tahmuras PU, Il Ridoto 12th, 8th and 6th the last three years Did win 2024 Paddypower Ch in Nov. No PN runner previous four years, 2018 no luck with 2 runners including 8/1 Movewiththetimes PU, 2017 Bouvreil 3rd, Art Mauresque 8th. 2016 three tried including Stilletto 11/2 jt fav fell. Caid Du Berlais 11/1 unpl 2015. Poquelin PU 2013. Crack Away Jack PU in 2012 went off at 13/2. Gwanako 2nd 2008 and 5th 2010. His Festival handicap runners usually overbet imho.

Venetia Williams - Three winners and two seconds in the last 17. Usually not the obvious one. Two unplaced last year. Frero Banbou 6th at 28s 2024, 12th in 2023. Didero Vallis 16s best of two in 5th in 2019. Tango De Juilley 2nd at 33s 2016. Idole First winner at 12s, Carrickboy at 50s, Something Wells was 33s. Overall record is three winners and six placed from a total of 27 runners.

IRISH TRAINED - Seddon, The Shunter, The Storyteller, Road To Respect and Empire Of Dirt the first Irish Trained winners of this since Doubleuagain in 1982. That's five of the last ten. The latter two were both Gigginstown owned. J McConnell/E Mullins/G Elliott/N Meade/Colm Murphy the trainers. However now usually about half the field are invaders, finishing 2nd and 4th last year, 2024 Life In The Park 4th, only finisher in the top six. Nine came 2023, Gevrey 4th at 125/1 next best to Seddon. Five ran in 2021 resulting in a 1-2-5. Six came in 2020, best Gordon's Ben Dundee 10/1 in 5th. Two 33/1 unplaced in 2019. The Last Goodbye also ran in 2018, 10th. Only Diamond King also in 2017, PU. Three in 2016, best of the rest Ballycasey in 5th. In the previous 23, 2015 Rawnaq 3rd at 25s from four runners, 2012 Glam Gerry 3rd from two runners at 33s, 2011 Beautiful Sound 3rd, only entry and fav, '10 Notable D'Estruval 3rd. Cregg House ‘03 and Its Time For A Win '02 were placed. As per most Festival races, success still there.

JOCKEYS - 10 of the last 35 winners ridden by conditional jockeys including 2009, '10, '11. 2019 Lizzie Kelly (3) 2019, 2021 Jordan Gainford (7) and 2023 Ben Harvey (5). Six tried last year, best Conor Stone-Walsh (3) in 2nd. 2024 four tried, best Mikey O'Connor (3) 4th. 2023 Michael O'Sullivan (3) also got Haut en Couleurs into 5th. Neither of the two jocked up in 2022 finished the race. The only other conditional riding in 2021 was Luca Morgan (7) on Top Notch 3rd. In 2020 Richard Patrick (3) gave Happy Diva a fine ride in second. Three others unplaced. Jamie Bargary (3) on Splash Of Ginge an enterprising second 2018. Jack Kennedy (3) only conditional placed between 2014 - 2017

RUNS THAT SEASON - 34 of last 39 winners all between 3 and 8 previous runs that season. The last 11 all between three and six runs that season. Not Ballynagour, one run, Salut Flo, one run. Both Pipe plots.

Nine of the last ten in the first three in either of last two runs. Jagwar and Shakem both won last time, Seddon had won his last two. Not Coole Cody.

The last 11 had all won that season. All bar 3 of the past 21 ran since 31st December. All bar Seddon (29th December) of the last eleven.

25 of the last 34 had not finished worse than 4th last time. (’02 Blowing Wind 5^th, ’03 Young Spartacus not been out that season, Mister McG 5th, Salut Flo 12th in G3 course Handicap chase, Carrickboy and Ballynagour both PU, Darna 7th in 2m4f h'cap on Cheltenham Trials Day. The Storyteller 7th to Monalee in the Flogas, Coole Cody 7th on Trials Day handicap).

The English handicapper only put Shakem up 3lbs for winning the G3 £57k New Years Day h'cap. And he had won by over seven lengths. The year before he lumped 19 lbs on Seddon for winning a Leopardstown Xmas 10k h'cap chase. Hmmm.

Jagwar up 7lbs for winning Timeform Nov H'cap. Siruh Du Lac came off the back of three successive wins up 18lbs since the start of the season. Simply The Betts put up 24lbs from winning a Chepstow Nov h'cap in early November. Empire Of Dirt up 10lbs. Tom Segal, when tipping Road To Respect wrote, 'the handicapper has no idea what the correct mark is for this horse.'

Shakem Up'Arry, Coole Cody and Siruh Du Lac first winners since 1983 to have won one of the December or January 2m 4f Graded handicaps that season. 2023 Il Ridoto (6th) had won the Trials day h'cap from Fugitif (2nd). 2020 Oldgrangewood winner in January a good fourth here, Darna, Salut Flo, Idole First, Liberthine and Sacre D’or only other winners since ’83 to have run in any of the Graded December or January 2m 4f Handicaps at Cheltenham that season. Simply The Betts and Jagwar both strolled the Jan Nov h'cap. Ballynagour only winner to have run in the Paddy Power/Betvictor since Half Free '84. Happy Diva 2nd 2020 did justice to her November win. Johns Spirit got 9lbs for winning the Paddy Power Happy Diva 6lbs, Midnight Shadow 7lbs.

13 of the last 14 hadn't been seen for at least 39 days. Not Road To Respect 25 days.

BREEDING - FRE breds have won 9 of the last 24 and finished placed in 11. Jagwar (FRE). Shakem and Seddon both IRE. 2022 Stolen Silver best in 4th behind three IRE breds. A 2-3 in 2021. In 2020, six ran, not one finished in the first twelve. In 2019 it was a French 1-2-5 from 11 qualifiers, in 2018 Kings Socks best in 5th from five qualifiers. Baron Alco 2nd and Bouvreuil in 4th in 2017 from 8, 2016 Tango De Julliet 2nd and Full Shift 4th from 6 runners,

Since 1999 four of the six winners aged less than seven were FRE breds. (exception Road To Respect and Great Endeavour). Two ran last year 1st and 5th. Only In Excelsis Deo las year, 5th. Three qualifiers in 2023, best Il Ridoto 6th. Janika 2nd in 2019.

BLINKERS CHEEKPIECES ETC - Last year 11th triers, best Masaccio 3rd in first time cheekpieces. In 2024, four triers, nothing better than 8th. 2023 eight triers, best Gevrey 4th. 2022 Spiritofthegames 3rd in usual cheekpieces, two unplaced no hopers in first time headgear. 2021 The Shunter in his usual hood and tongue tie. Top Notch in 3rd in first time cheekpieces, the only first timer in the field. The Shunter 2021 first headgear winner from 76 triers in usual hood. 2020 three tried, best Mister Whitaker 3rd. Eight ran in 2019, best finishers were 3rd and 4th, Five in 2018, best Ballyalton in 4th. Nine in 2017, Bouvreuil 4th.

BF - Coole Cody at 22s became the first BF last time this century to win. Tramp. 52 other beaten favourites last time have tried. Thecompanysergeant 2nd last year, best in 2024 was 5th, Fugitif 2nd 2023. Two unplaced in 2021, Happy Diva 2nd in 2020. In 2019 five PPDs came (Punters Previous Disappointments). Finished 2nd and 3rd. Two in 2018, Movewithetimes 8/1 PU (one of the big overbet careers, that horse).

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