HEADGEAR - No headgear for any of the last four winners. 10 wore headgear last year, best The Short Go 5th. 11 wore headgear 2024. Meetingofthewaters 3rd in a hood the only headgear wearer of the 8 finishers. No headgear wearers in the first five home 2023. 10 tried, three first timers. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't.

Going back. Sue Smith in 2021. Vintage Clouds' 28th Chase, 11 yrs of age, beaten in the Ultima four times. 'Let's put cheekpieces on him for the first time'. The only runner in the field wearing any sort of headgear for the first time. 28s. The Conditional, Beware The Bear, Un Temps Pour Tout (both times) and The Druids Nephew all won wearing their usual blinkers and cheekpieces respectively. Holywell wore blinkers for the first time over fences when winning. The only other time he had worn them was to win the Pertemps in 2013. Both the previous two winners to him wore cheekpieces as did the 2nd in 2012, Alfie Sherrin for the first time, Golden Chieftain 6th time.

So, 9 from the 14 wore headgear. The excetions are Coo Star Sivola 2018, Corach Rambler (both times), Chianti Classico and Myretown. Four novices.

AGE - Croco Bay (2019 Grand Annual), The Package (2015 Kim Muir), Spot the Difference ’05, Uncle Ernie ’97, Foyle Fisherman ’91 and Three Counties ’89 are the only 12 year olds to have won a race at the Festival since ’84. None of them won this race.

So, Vintage Clouds at 11 yrs, the first horse in double figures to win since Chief Dan George as a 10 yr old in 2010. Happygolucky last year and the The Package 2014 the only other horses aged 11yrs or over to be placed in this since ’97. 57 aged 11 and above have tried. Three ran in 2024, Chambard finished last. Poor old Highland Hunter led down the hill, then collapsed and died. RIP. 2023 Top Ville Ben on his own PU. Two in 2022, best the 11 yr old Death Duty in 6th. Bar Vintage Clouds, two other 11 yr olds in 2021 finished last and PU. 2020 Cogry PU. Twenty two 10 yr olds ran over the last seven renewals. They may be still out looking for the three from last year.

Ages of the 1-2-3-4 last year were 8-8-8-11, 2024 it was 7-9-7-8. 2023 9-7-7-6. 2022 it was 8-6-7-7. Vintage Clouds was chased home by the 7 yr old favourite and an 8 yr old. 2020 nothing older than eight in the first four home. 2019 first four home were all nine yr olds. In 2018 none of the 18 runners were aged older than nine years. In total 40 horses aged in double figures ran in the last ten years, apart from Vintage Clouds and Happgolucky, Buywise 4th in 2017 the only one to be placed. (If looking at 11/12 yr olds in future, Vintage Clouds had previously finished F328 in this race, Happygolucky finished 2nd to him in 2021, The Package and Uncle Ernie had been placed no less than 3 times at previous Festivals, Croco Bay twice. Spotthedifference had already won the Cross Country Race twice that season. He was only getting going in 2005).

Before Vintage, Flyers Nap '97 last winner older than 10 yrs and he won the Kim Muir in a previous Festival.

SIX YR OLDS - The novice Coo Star Sivola 2018 first six year old winner since Antonin '94. Nothing younger than 7 yrs old ran last year. Two 5 yr olds PU over the last three years. 6 yr old Victtorino PU 2024, two ran 2023, best The Goffer in 4th. 2022 Gericault Roque in 2nd the only six yr old to run. None ran 2021, Elwood fell early 2020. None ran 2019. Behind Coo Star in 2018 two others finished in the first eight.

NOVICES - In the last 18 renewals, seven have been won by novices and eight by second season chasers. Be aware of the new novices run qualification. Fork Lightning in '04 was the first novice in 30 years, then Dun Doire ’06 who was still technically a novice but had already won a Thyestes Chase. He was followed by Wichita Lineman, Holywell, Un Temps Pour Tout, obviously the first time, Coo Star Sivola, Corach Rambler 2022, Chianti Classico and Myretown last year. 2010 might have been a sixth winning novices but for a poor enough ride by Timmy Murphy on The Package or even Bensalem who fell 2 out when going very well in the same race.

The three exceptions to the 18 are Vintage Clouds 2021, Beware The Bear 2019 and The Druids Nephew 2015. The first two had previously been placed in this race and The Druids Nephew won a Cheltenham h'cap chase in November that season.

In 2025 7 novices in the 24 runner field, including 1st and 2nd. In 2024, four lined up in a field of twenty. Trelawne fell at the 2nd, the other three finished 1st, 3rd and 6th of eight finishers. 2023 Monbeg Genius 3rd and The Goffer 4th. Only three qualifiers. Also Vintage Clouds (the younger), Singlefarmpayment (rogue), Green Flag, White Star Line, Our Mick, Reve De Sivola and Ogee all recently placed as novices. In 2022 we had nine novices in the 24, as well as Corach Rambler, Oscar Elite in 3rd and Tea Clipper 4th. Novice winner ratings Fork Lightning first, Myretown last 136, 129, 142, 145, 148, 142, 140, 143, 127. In 2021 novices finished 2nd, 5th, 7th and 10th.

Mirroring this 16 from the last 20 had no more than 10 runs over fences. This was Myretown's and Chianti Classico's 4th chase. Ballsy. Corach Rambler, second time, his 9th chase. The Conditional had 10, Beware The Bear was a third season chaser with only 10 previous runs. Corach, first time and Coo Star were running in their sixth chase, Un Temp's second win was only his seventh chase. Wichita Lineman three. Vintage Clouds was running in his 28th chase!

FESTIVAL FORM - 14 from last 29 placed at least at a previous Festival. 15 hadn't. Myretown hadn't seen the place before. Chianti Classico PU in the Albert Bartlett. Corach Rambler first time obviously, on Festival debut. Had a CD win that season. Vintage Clouds previously placed twice in this. The Conditional hadn't run before at the Festival but had a CD in October. Beware The Bear 4th in this in 2018 the year before his win, Coo Star 3rd in Fred Winter 2016. All bar Myretown, Corach first time, The Conditional and Golden Chieftain in 2013 of the last 18 winners ran at a previous festival. First two had CD that season in handicaps, Chieftain had finished 3rd in that season's G3 December H'cap Ch.

History of horses being placed more than once in this, including Corach Rambler obviously, Happygolucky 4th 2025 and 2nd 2021 had previously finished 4th in a Martin Pipe, The Goffer 5th and 4th. Big River 5th 2019 after being 4th, Beware The Bear, Vintage Clouds, Un Temps Pour Tout, Holywell, Our Mick, The Package (3 times), Juveigneur, Irish Hussar, Kelami, Ad Hoc, Unguided Missile, Boraceva. Bensalem may well have been. Oscar Elite, third 2022 and then 5th 2023 had previously finished 3rd in an Albert Bartlett. Tea Clipper 4th 2022, had been 3rd in a Coral Cup. Discorama 3rd in 2020, 2nd in NH Chase 2019. Fair Along, 4th in 2011, had been previously placed in a QM and an Arkle. Look for The Changing Man, Malinas Girl, Happygolucky.

Apart from Myretown, Corach Rambler first time, The Conditional and Golden Chieftain, last 25 winners had run previously at the Festival or were aged 8 and below and improving i.e handicap mark is going up. All four aged 8 yrs old, Corach Rambler and The Conditional's h'cap marks was down 3lb since Warwick, Golden Chieftain's handicap rating had been previously 10lb higher.

WEIGHT CARRYING - Five of the last eight under 11st. Myretown 10 3, Chianti 11 4, Corach Rambler 11 5 after 10 2, Vintage Clouds 10 11, The Conditional only carried 10 6 but Beware The Bear 11 8, Un Temps Pour Tout 11 12, 11 7, The Druids Nephew 11 3, Holywell '14 with 11 6 have all augmented the 'over 11st' theory since 2011. Bensalem 2011 with 11 2 first to carry more than 10st 12 to victory since Unguided Missile's 11st 10 in '98. 16 of 24 last year carried over 11st.. 2022 Frodon off 164, there were only himself and Lostintranslation over 11st. Third and fourth in 2021 were the two top weights. Coo Star Sivola carried 10st 13lbs (minus Lizzie Kelly's 3lb claim). In 2017 1st and 3rd were the two top weights, in 2016 all four placed carried at least 11st 5lb. Holywell had 11st 12lb in second. Hard to suggest any hard and fast rule.

In 2012 Alfie Sherrin (1lb wrong) was the third winner out of 69 running from out of the handicap (only Maamur ’96 has won more than 3lb ‘wrong’). 2nd and 3rd in 2022 were 5lbs and 4lbs wrong.

HANDICAP RATINGS - Since 1983 the ratings of winners between 127 and 150. Myretown 127, Chianti Classico 143, Corach 146 and 140, Vintage 143, The Conditional 139, Beware The Bear 151, Coo Star Sivola 142, Un Temps Pour Tout off 155. Going back from 2017, Un Temp 148, The Druids Nephew 146, Holywell 145. Golden Chieftain 132. To summarise, 10 of the last 13 between 139 and 151.

Last 24 had all recorded their best performance as assessed by RPR (Racing Post Ratings) over at least 3 miles. All bar Myretown of the last 18 had achieved minimum RPRs of 143. Myretown 139, Chianti 149, Corach 152, 147, Vintage 159, The Conditional 145, Beware The Bear 156, Un Temp 163. This stat won't do much to cut out numbers. It's just someone else's opinion.

IRISH TRAINED - Before Youlneverwalkalone ‘03 and Dun Doire ’06 the last Irish trained winner was Arkloin ’66 carrying 12st 5lbs. The former pair came here having both just won major Irish handicaps. White Star Line 3rd 2013 from 4 triers between 2012 to 2014. In 2015 two came, Grand Jesture 2nd at 25/1, Gallant Oscar 3rd at 9s. In 2016 Morning Assembly in 4th best of the three. In 2017 three came, best Noble Endeavour in third. Even Clarcam finished 9th. In 2018 there wasn't a single Irish trained runner in the race. In 2019 four were unplaced, including the ill fated Up For Review. I believe he was Willie Mullins's first ever runner in the race. 2020 Discorama 3rd and Elwood (F). 2021 two came, 6th and 9th. 2022 seven gave it a go, best Death Duty 6th, Noble Yeats had a Grand National prep jog in 9th. 2023 Three triers achieved 2nd and 4th. 2024 Willie's getting closer with Meetingofthewaters 3rd. Six other invaders including The Goffer, 5th. Last year five came, best, The Short Go, 5th.

In summary, Irish Trained 0 from 51 since 2006.

Lucinda Russell has had six runners in this finishing (Myretown first) 111454.

Tony Martin has had five runners in this in the last 17 years, one winner and two placed.

M. and D Pipe. - King Turgeon PU last year. Two PU in 2023. Gericault Roque (9s from 11s on course) a gallant 2nd in 2022. Un Temps Pour Tout wins '16 and '17. Well targeted. Three runners unplaced between Un Temps Pour Tout and the Roque. Great Endeavour still in contention when fell 2011. The Package 2nd 2014 also placed in 2010 and 2012. An Accordion won in '08. None of the latter priced above 11/1 on their first effort. Un Temps returned 11s and 9s, well punted on both wins.

N Henderson - Two winners and seven placed from his last 26 runners (Ma Filleule 33s 2nd 2013 but his unpl including Quantitiveeasing 11/2 jt fav. Gold Present 10s). Beware The Bear 2019 first success since the classy Marlborough in 2000. (He was good) His placed horses returned between 11/2 and 66/1. Doesn't help. All a bit too hot for Pym (The Reluctant), OK Corral, Burbank, Brave Eagle and Excello between them since 2020. None last year.

JonJo ONeill has had 3 winners in the last 15 and 3 runners up this century. Crebilly 9th last year. Monbeg Genius 3rd 2023 but PU 2024. No winner since Holywell 2014. Quarenta BD 2020.

Paul Nicholls yet to win this - 0 from 24. Stay Away Fay jogged around in 11th last year. Threeunderthrofive 8th 2023 under A P Heskin. Frodon off 164 'struck into' 2022. Give Me A Copper, alleged good thing at 9/1, beaten when fell 2019. 2018 Vicente 20s PU. 2017 Caid De Berlais fell early, Ibis De Rheu unpl, 2016 Southfield Theatre 16s BD.

PROFILE - 28 from last 31 had won over 3 miles. Myretown half a furlong shorter but i'll give it to him. (Alfie Sherrin and Un Temps Pour Tout (first time) had both won a 3m hurdle, the latter in France). Exceptions - Bensalem '11, Rough Quest ‘95 and Frenchmans Creek’ 02 but those had been placed over three miles in at least two of their last three runs. 11 of last 35 winners (including Alfie) had already tried 4 miles sometime during their career including Vintage Clouds, 3rd in a Scottish National. 24 hadn’t. Corach Rambler was about to in 2023. The Conditional didn't stay last time out in the Warwick Classic. Corach Rambler (first time) had outstayed a 1/2 shot over 3m on soft ground at Carlisle. Takes some doing.

22 from the last 28 had won a handicap chase Class 3 or above. Exceptions were four English trained novices (Myretown and Corach trained in Scotland), Bensalem (who didn't try a handicap between The Festival 2010 and 2011) and Alfie Sherrin. Un Temps Pour Tout had yet to win a chase but had been second to Native River in a G2 Newbury novice. All the exceptions had previously won a hurdle worth at least £10k to the winner.

GRADED CHASE WIN? - Corach Rambler and Un Temps Pour Tout (both 2nd time, obviously) join Vintage Clouds (G2 Peter Marsh) and Joes Edge 2007 to be the only winners this century to have previously won a Graded chase before winning this. Beware The Bear had won a Listed Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle.

BACK TO BACK WINS? - Corach Rambler 2023-2022 and Un Temps Pour Tout 2016-2017 first since Scot Lane 1982-1983. Used to be one of the great stats. This century only four others have tried in successive years. 2011 Chief Dan George Fell, 2014 Golden Chieftain Upld, 2019 Coo Star Sivola PU. Vintage Clouds PU 2022. Holywell went 4th in GC then 2nd 2016, Bensalem Fell with race at mercy 2010, then won 2011. Myretown.

Corach Rambler with a U (Ascot, Reynoldstown, 5 out, still in contention) became the first to win with a letter as their last form that is F, P, U or BD since Flyers Nap in 1997. The race was known as the Astec Buzz in those days. Last year five tried, best The Short Go F, 5th. 2024 Meetingofthewaters U, 3rd, Famous Bridge U, 4th. Two unplaced in 2021, 2020 No Comment followed an F with an F, 3 in 2019, best Vintage Clouds 2nd. 5 tried 2018, best Beware The Bear in 4th (P).

Myretown joins Vintage Clouds and Bensalem of the last 24 to have more than one career fall before winning.

All former winners at least two runs that season.

20 from the last 26 no more than 4 chase starts that season. Corach (first time) and Coo Star Sivola's 6th that season, Holywell's 6th chase in 2014, Golden Chieftain's 8th run since October.

13 of the last 18 had run in the past 45 days (24th January ish). Myretown 25 days, Chianti Classico 59, Corach 2nd time 108 (not seen since Newbury Coral Cup) Corach ist time Ascot 24 days, Vintage Clouds 3rd at Kelso 25 days earlier. Not The Conditional 59 days, not Beware The Bear, not seen since winning at Cheltenham on New Years Day. Not Wichita Lineman. The four previous winners before Beware The Bear had all run at Cheltenham Trials Day.

LADBROKE CHASE KEMPTON (17 days previous) - (Winners purse worth slightly more than any Cheltenham Handicap Chase) 4 of the last 24 runners up in Kempton's Racing Post Chase/Coral Trophy/Ladbroke Chase went on to Cheltenham that year to run in 3 mile + chases. Two winners. '00 Marlborough in this, '97 King Lucifer Kim Muir. The others were L'Ami who finished 4th in the Gold Cup and Possol unplaced in this '09. The Kempton race has recently got the big prize money 2022 Our Power was 3rd at Kempton before finishing 5th here. Didn't stay. Antonin 1994 the last one to do the double. 2024 Al Dancer waited for the Badger Beer. Last year Katate Dori won at Kempton, then 7/1 PU here. no explanation offered.

We Ignore those that finished unplaced that Racing Post/Coral Chase. 21 tried recently, no success. Improvement in 2020 with Whatmore 4th achieved the same place in the 2m 4f Novice Handicap and Kildisart 5th at Kempton, 2nd here.

14 from last 21 'held up in rear' or 'well off the pace', 'midfield' Not in 2025. Myretown took off, never saw another horse. Chianti Classico 'prominent'. Corach Rambler seems best ridden from the rear. Colin Tizzard didn't think Golden Chieftain would stay the trip and I'm not sure that AP had much choice on Wichita. Beware The Bear, Coo Star, Holywell and Un Temps Pour Tout 'tracked leaders, close up' both years. Vintage Clouds also up in the van the whole way.

NEWBURY CORAL CUP (HENNESSEY) - Corach Rambler 4th, The Conditional 2nd, Beware The Bear 4th, Un Temps (10th, 2nd year) followed The Druids Nephew (7th) to become the first Hennessey/Coral Cup runners to win this since Seagram ‘91 (Offshore Account placed in '10 having fallen early at Newbury). Aye Right 2nd both at Newbury and here. Last year three of the first five from Newbury came here, best 8th here. 2024 five came from Newbury, best Twig 2nd here after 11th in December. Monbeg Genius had been 3rd but disappointed. Three others came 2023, best Oscar Elite 5th after a strange enough ride by H Cobden. Two unplaced outsiders in 2022. The Druids Nephew then went close to emulating Seagram's Grand National success. When he fell at Valentines 2nd time round I could have cried. Druids Nephew also became the only winner ever to come from the 3m 3f h'cap at Cheltenham's November meeting.

This years Coral Cup possibles - Panic Attack, Three Card Brag, The Changing Man, Georgeous Tom.

Colin Parker Chase runners have finished 91321 in the Ultima Matt Tombs Resplendent Grey bt Handstands

PRICE - Last six favourites to oblige are Gay Vulgan ’77, Antonin ’94, Wichita Lineman '09, Coo Star Sivola '18, Corach Rambler 6/1jt fav 2023, Myretown 13/2 (a late plunge). Up to 2018 this was possibly one of the worst races at Festival for winning favourites. In 2018 Coo Star Sivola became the first favourite to win in 37 consecutive Festival handicaps. As good a reason for backing it as any. 2024 The Goffer started 9/2 fav. 2022 Floeur 15/2f unplaced, 2021 Happygolucky 100/30 2nd, 2020 Discorama and Vinndication 11/2 jf favs both placed, In 2019 Up For Review, Coo Star and Mister Whittaker 8/1 co favs all unplaced. In 2017, Singlefarmpayment, the Pricewise Selection, was backed from 10s overnight to 5/1 fav on the off. If only we knew then.... Our Mick was placed at 13/2f in 2013. Bensalem, Marlborough and An Accordion were solid morning favourites but drifted before the race itself. 6 of the last 24 not from the first four in the market. As a clerk, you might expect that.

29 of last 34 winners had been 1^st or 2^nd sometime that season. 23 had won. Not Corach (2nd time), Vintage, Un Temps (first time) nor Alfie Sherrin.

HURDLE MARK - In the last 15, 14 runners were 7lb or more below their hurdles mark. Five won. High-class hurdlers, similar to Un Temps Pour Tout, Holywell & Wichita Lineman, that are novices over fences. Only horse last year below its hurdle mark was Richmond Lake (6lb) PU.

25 from last 34 had been 1^st or 2^nd in either of last two runs. Not Corach (both times), Un Temps (second time) nor Druids Nephew. The latter two both ran down the field in Cleeve Hurdle. Three other exceptions were Frenchmans Creek, Kelami and Golden Chieftain all 3rd last time out.

Only five of the last 16 won last time out. Last year six came, including 1st and 2nd home. 2024 two came both PU, one died. In 2023 four came, best finishers 3rd, 4th and 5th. 2022 seven came, best was 6th. 2021 three last time winners, best the jolly in 2nd. 2020 six last time winners, best in 4th and 5th. 2019 four last time winners ran. Beware The Bear and Lakeview Lad 3rd. Seven ran in 2018, Coo Star only one in first five.

CONDITIONAL JOCKEYS - Four tried last year, best 10th. 2024 Beau Morgan (5) fine ride on Twig last year. Three others unpl. No conditionals placed in previous five years. In 2018 Lizzie Kelly (3) wins from James Bowen (3). Brendan Powell (3) on Golden Chieftain became the first claiming jockey to win since at least 1990. Mr Sam Waley Cohen (3) third 2016, JJ Burke (3) 2nd on Grand Jesture 2015 Nico De Boinville (5) second 2014 on Ma Filluele. That's two claimers winning since 1990.

Tom Scudamore won this three times and rode the second in 2022. His eight rides in his last decade went 2/5/6/1/1/12/3/F. All Pipe trained.

This century Chianti Classico 6/1 and Corach Rambler (first time) 10s joined The Conditional 15/2 and Un Temps Pour Tout 11/1 (first time) to become the fifth BF last time to win following Bensalem 2011 at 5/1. Chianti 2nd at 9/4 fav behind Flegmatic at Kempton. 37 other beaten favourites last time have tried. Broadway Boy PU last year. Corach was 16/5 fav for the Reynoldstown. The Conditional only one in the field, the tramp. Famous Bridge, The Goffer, Singlefarmpayment, Shantou Flyer and Vintage Clouds all placed carrying that particular cross. A stat not working.

In 2022 there were three BFS last time in the field. Finished 1st, 2nd 3rd. Fantastic, Bryan.

No chestnut winners in the last 22. Love these. Zanahiyr F last year. Five unplaced in 2023, Ben Dundee 11th 2022.

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