Which Bookmaker?
I will always be a small punter. Scouring Oddschecker for best offers and prices. If all that is beneath you or you bet in big numbers, then this bit may not be for you.
There really are very few differences between all internet bookmakers. For obvious reasons you are unlikely to find any constructive feedback views on specific bookmakers on any sponsored Podcast, TV Racing Channel or Racing publication.
Remember, this week of all weeks, try to make them bookies work for your cash.
Rory Delargy - 'nothing to be gained from backing early on the handicaps. Prices by and large better on the day.' Very true. Especially ew. At least 6 places available for every handicap on the day. Skybet 8 places 2022 the Coral, Pertemps and County Hurdles. Neil Channing @senseichanning has even changed his tune. 'now think it can now do no harm to wait to noon plus before committing cash to bookmakers.'
NRNB says Paul Kealy 'This concession has its place and a few weeks in advance it can be quite useful, but the chances are if you placed a bet in the two weeks leading up to the festival you struck a bad-value one. There will of course be the occasional steamer on the day, but the closer you get to the festival the less appealing the concession is because the bookies are still betting to around 200 per cent or more so they have readily allowed for a stack of non-runners. On the day you'd have been able to get better odds and better place terms than just a few days earlier – and you'll know what the ground is. Let's try not to fall for it. '
SKYBET by and large do the best places. Obviously, they cut their prices particularly on the mid range ones. You have to make a decision what you want. security of more places or a bigger price? Taking SP sometimes works, sometimes doesn't. I tend to take extra places for ew trebles and above. I do find SKYBET a particularly badly laid out site. You have to work hard to find a bet you have done or change a price to SP taken. probably done deliberately methinks. My only other account left is with WHILLS, I still get BOG there. If a drifter, I most likley would use them.
During Festival week check place terms at https://www.oddschecker.com/ But you know that. Check your BOG terms. If there are any left.
https://www.olbg.com/bookmakers/articles/best-odds-guarantee-bog
Be advised, some bookies will change place terms during each day in order to compete with others.
If doing placepots check out www.tote.co.uk. Try and do it at least one before midnight for next day's racing. Check their promotions. Win prices also will match SP. Free placepots being given out on their site every week. Minimum pool guarantees. Trifecta/Jackpot rollovers to Uttoxeter Midland National the Saturday. And no chance of being restricted!
I'm far from a big punter but even I rarely bet on exchanges until no sooner than 15 mins before the off. That's when things will be different than the internet bookies. Especially on outsiders. For example (and I didn't do it), 230s was available on the Poniros win book just before the off last year.
Click on oddschecker.com at 6pm the instant after the Pricewise selections are released online most days and you can watch the prices shrink. All bookies shrink prices if they think they are about to be knocked over, not always because they have taken a lot of cash. Segal selections tend to be well punted Day 1. The longer he goes without a winner, the less frantic it becomes. Also, they will be cut in the evening/morning but both Kealy and Segal selections regularly drift in the afternoon, especially on the exchanges.
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Things I Like To Remember
Seems silly, but keep checking throughout each race day. Things change, not only prices.
There will usually still be 150 six day Entries in the Martin Pipe. Outsider of field priced at 33/1. That is at least a 500% overround. Unless NRNB and BOG and you 'get on' early, I would wait. On the day itself, in 2020 there were 6 places on offer from Skybet. In the morning the winner Indefatigable was 50/1, Outsider of field Mill Green 80/1 all afternoon, finished 6th. Nine times out of ten you'll get better win prices on Betfair Exchange. But you know that.
This happens to me every year. I think there is antepost value and then the BETFAIR Exchange day of race win market will go up with the 48 hr decs. Whoosh. I am always amazed at what real value is. That's what happens with miniscule exchange overrounds.
Bookies early (i.e. in the morning) - Betfair late. Overrounds on the Festival Pricewise tables in the morning close to 100% (thank you Matt Tombs). I know that there will already have been a lot of changes in those boxes but it stands to reason that the best bookmaker prices will probably be before lunch. WHills and BET365 well known for standing prices for longer than most over these four days. Best to try and get most of your stuff done before lunchtime with a backup tank each afternoon for the machine? Especially if you can still get BOG. Bookmaker Prices rarely drift that much in the afternoon.
Pricewise Tables in Racing Post -
Betfair Exchange Win Book Late - Just before the off and I mean as they are circling the start. This doesn't change. If you fancy a fat one and no one else likes it/amongst friends it's known as 'Gault's lost the plot completely.' wait until just before the off before taking a price on Betfair. And I am talking in the final minute as they circle. It is only then that the layers are really pushing out the outsiders and keen to balance books. Betfair ad says it all. Since 2008 94% of winners returned bigger on Exchange SP than bookies, and that's with the 5% commission taken off. If you haven't the time, take the Exchange SP on your Hail Mary. It Came To Pass 2020 Foxhunters Betfair SP 225, Industry SP 66s.
Remember bookies love NRNB because we will never take the money out of our account but punt it on something else.
If you are at Cheltenham, and even if you're not, please have fun.
Remember Groundless Optimism Syndrome Encouraged by Alcohol. Never changes. Even at home. To paraphrase @icyestretro on twitter, 'you wouldn't drink that much on a Tuesday night and then drive the kids to school on the Wednesday morning. What makes you think you'll be any better at working out the Coral Cup?' Love it.
TOALS PREVIEW NIGHT - CLAYTON HOTEL BELFAST 27th February.
Bigger venue this year in the Back bar of the Clayton Hotel in Belfast. Done Ormeau Avenue just opposite the BBC. Same panel Pamela Ballantine MC ably supported by Kevin Blake (KB), Bryan Cooper (BC), Tony Keenan (TK), and Archie Devlin (AD). Archie is a columnist from the Irish News. Pamela was having fun, the mikes wouldn't work properly at the start, so she likened it 'to a Sinn Fein Press Conference'. Hmm. Kevin, always an entertaining and charming wordsmith, Tony, highly enthusiastic and knowledgeable, young Bryan more confident than last year. Has come on for a run ot two. Started at 8pm, we had a break for 20 minutes in the middle and finished at 10.30pm. There should be more like it. (My bits in italics).
First thing - chat on Constitution Hill (right decision) and Mark Walsh. 'Let's not feel too sad for him, he'll be fine.' was the general view.
Tuesday - TK - first year in a long time that WPM doesn't have a standout in the Supreme. Likes Idaho Son ew. KB, as Joseph's representative, wasn't overly bullish about Talk The Talk. Joseph and he were all watching together at the DRF together, felt he had 'no chance' three out, so pleasantly surprised. Closing sectionals were great. Someone felt Mighty Park jumps to the right. (Hard to know after one run). BC a El Cairos fan. Seems they were doing 38mph coming down the Thurles straight. AD made an Oldpark Belfast joke.
Arkle. BC not a Coolio fan, likes Lulamba. AD thinks it a stayers race, gives Jax Junior a squeak. TK the DRF 'was a war'. 60 lengths faster than the Jacobs Ladder race later that afternoon (and he has just won a G2). Steel Ally for him. KB Lulamba over Kopek. Its obvious GE doesn't want to go to Cheltenham. Thinks Romeo Coolio might step on a stone or something. Tells us if a horse is pulled out 'off feed' or 'allergies' just means trainer doesnt want to run.
Champ H. KB gives the 'low hanging fruit' talk. 'She has to run.' 'WPM doesn't have a CH challenger this year. 'Just run the effing horse.' You get the drift. TK - it's a poor race, Poniros ew. BC is a BDA fan. Is her stabling away from the track a gimmick? Feels Nicky H will feel a bit sick if there's low sun and they miss three hurdles. AD -Alexie ew (One point, Lossiemouth has a lot of miles on the clock, 17 hurdle runs. I can't find a horse that won its first CH with so many. Even Hurricane Fly regained his title on his 18th hurdle run.)
I seem to have mislaid the rest of this, sorry, Bryan.