The above table shows the fate of the Festival favourites since we went to 28 races in 2016. The only year without 28 races was 2024 when the Cross Country was cancelled due to waterlogging. People get really upset about the number of Festival odds on favourites. 'Makes it uncompetitive' is the constant cry. But why is a horse an odds on favourite? My argument would be that in 2026 the hype surroundng the Festival has never been greater. Podcasts, pundits, and social media rush to tell us 'that's a certainty at Cheltenham.' Bookies shorten Festival prices because they are not really interested in ante post books. This season Final Demand was 6/4 favourite for the Brown Advisory in late December. As I write on the 10th February, hindsight tells us that the price may not be justified. But hype made that price. As it does with short priced favourites every year.
So was last year's Festival any more uncompetitive that before? In 2013 nine favourites won of the 18 priced 3/1 or under. All three odds on shots won. I don't remember then people telling me then that the world was about to end. Between 2010 and 2016 we had 22 odds on shots. 15 won. Between 2017 and 2023, another seven year stretch, we had 32 odds on shots, a definite increase in numbers. Only three in 2023, mind you. Guess what? Again, only 15 won over a seven year period. Hype? Should the arguments not be based on facts, as opposed to mythical prices? In 2024 we had seven odds on shots, of which five won. Last year seven ran, only Kopek Des Bordes and Lossiemeouth won. All the money stayed in the satchels from Majborough, Constitution Hill, Ballyburn, Jonbon and Galopin Des Champs. Bookies drive big cars. Yet to have one in 2026.
Fate of Festival SP favourites since 2009. When the fav becomes 3/1 and under at a lot of Festival races, then as punters, perhaps we should be reassessing the value. I used to think, probably naively, that on course bookmakers like best to take on favourites priced between 4/6 and 3/1. These are the prices that you are going to get them 'in the bag.' Simon Nott's excellent daily accounts for Starsports and AK Bets in Ireland would suggets that 1/3 and 1/4 shots are never that easy to lay for cash and more often or not remain winners for the book.
Nowadays, some on course bookmakers will back the shorties heavily on Betfair and lay the no hopers for vast liabilities. Especially in Irish maiden hurdles. It's a theory espoused in January 2024 by Johnny Dineen on Racing Post's 'Upping The Ante.' He wisely added 'it's how you cope when one of the no hopers wins, is the big issue.' As an part time on course clerk, I know that the theory of calculating level staking punting on favourites proves little or nothing. The shorter the price, the bigger percentage of my screen should be on that horse so you stand it for your usual projected loss. As I say, it rarely happens that way nowadays.
My self imposed 3/1 reassessment barrier should probably change with each individual Festival race. For example In the Queen Mother, this century the 25 favourites have ranged in price from the beaten 2/9 Douvan and El Fabiolo to winner Altior 4/11 to beaten 2/5 Defi du Seuil to winner 11/4 Sire De Grugy, the biggest priced QM favourite this century. 13 of those 25 favourites since 1999 started odds on. Only three of the thirteen won. Yes, I had to re-check that. At 1/4 and 4/11 twice. Five winning favs of the other 12 priced Evens or bigger including Energumene 2023 backed down to 6/5 at the off. Therefore more advisable that when the QM fav approaches Evens, pause, then have another think before wading in as a punter. Jonbon in 2025 the latest odds on QM fav to get beat. Majborough.
I'm thinking more of those favourites in handicaps who get backed late, on course. For every Unsinkable Boxer cantering the Pertemps at 5/2 fav, there are several plots each year that go awry. I challenge you to remember who started favourite in 2026 for the Fred Winter, Coral Cup and the Martin Pipe. No? Ok, they were Stencil 11/4, Be Aware 3/1 and Kopeck De Mee at 5/2. Instantly forgotten. JP McManus has owned three of the last Fred Winter winners. He has also owned the last three Fred Winter favouites, all stuffed at 11/4, 3/1 and 7/2 respectively. Short prices in a 24 runner handicap.
In 2024, there was a few of them, Stumptown 10s to 15/2 PU in the Ultima. Liari 9/2 PU Boodles, Built By Ballymore started 4/1 fav for the Coral Cup (how under God?), Crebilly 5s to 7/2 for the Plate, 3rd. But the big one was Inothewayurthinkin 5/2 to 13/8 in 15 minutes. Won like Unsinkable Boxer. For all that, Galopin Des Champs was only fav to win on the Friday.
In 2023 we had some beauties which few will ever remember. Terao in the Boodles, Hermes Allen (RIP) 9/4 fav from 4/1 late for the Ballymore, 6th. Mighty Potter, an unbeatable 4/6 for the Turners, 3rd. Thanksforthehelp D Pipe/JP/M Walsh started 100/30 fav for the 23 runner Pertemps. What? 12th. Luccia 6/4 4th in the Mares Novice. Vaucelet 9/4 fav for Foxhunters. 7th. Only four favs won between Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.
Matt Tombs 2024 - In the previous 5 years there had been 64 handicap runners that qualify as being ‘gambles’ in those last 24 hours. Only 6 won, and if you’d backed them all, even if you’d got the best price on the Pricewise grid, you’d have lost 22% of your stakes.
According to Ladbrokes/Corals stats the Triumph Hurdle is always in the top ten biggest betting races in GB/IRE that year. The first race on GC Day. Think of all the races throughout the whole racing calendar in these islands. A small field, Grade 1, four yr old race takes all that cash. Poniros last year for the bookies, Lossiemouth and Vauban for the punters the previous two years. Nabisco Has
All seven races on Gold Cup day are usually in the top twenty betting races for the whole calendar year. The first five races on Gold Cup Day are regularly in the top 15 of biggest UK betting races of the year. Only Kargese and Dinoblue won when fav last year. Only Galopin obliged in 2024, Lossiemouth and Galopin in 2023. In 2022 the first four favs went in. In 2021 no favourites won on Gold Cup Day. In 2021 Zanahyir at 11/8, A Plus Tard 9/4, Billaway at 2/1 and Elimay at 6/5 all leaving it behind would suggest that the clerks may have been getting steak for dinner. Saint Roi, Al Boum Photo Chosen Mate along with Defi Du Seuil 2017 Triumph and Hazel Hill 2019 Foxhunters had been the only 5 favourites to have won any of the 35 races over the five Festival Fridays from 2017 to 2021. Then 2022.
Only five winning favs over the last three Festival Fridays. 21 races.
The Ascot Gold Cup tends to be the only Royal Ascot race ever to make it into the top twenty yearly betting races. (usually just behind the (Fox)Hunters, I ask you).
WILLIE MULLINS SHORTIES - THOSE 2/1 and under. Four from his eight last year, money left behind by Majborough, Final Demand, Ballyburn and Galopin Des Champ. Slam dunked it in 2024, saddled seven favs 2/1 and under. All won bar the shortest one, El Fabiolo at 2/9. In 2023 he saddled six favs 2/1 and under. Again one beat. Allegorie De Vassy the 13/8 fav in the Mares. 2022 he saddled seven, five won, not Gaelic Warrior nor Dinoblue. But had the first race winners on the Wednesday and Friday and a Gold Cup Day five timer. In 2021 WPM saddled six at 15/8 or under. Only Appreciate It 8/11 and Monkfish 1/4 obliged. Concertista, Chacun, Kilcuit and Elimay didn't (also Billaway at 2/1). The last 24 sent out by Closutton with SPs under 2/1. 18 winners.
2020. Willie saddled seven winners, none priced under 3/1. He saddled seven favourites, all 3/1 or under, all losers. All in conditions races. In order Asterion Forlonge 9/4, Benie Des Dieux 4/6, Carefully Selected 10/11, Alloha 5/2, Appreciate It 15/8, Faugheen 3/1, Billaway 11/4. Amazing to think that his shortest priced horse on GC Day was in the fifth race and the first one that day that he didn't win. Min won the Ryanair for him in 2020 at 2/1 but A Plus Tard was the favourite.
The shortest shorties to get turned over this century are, in order, El Fabiolo, Douvan, Envoi Allen and Annie Power in that 2015 alleged £40 million fall. Last year it was Ballyburn at 4/7. That was some plunge. Constitution Hill shortest 2023 at 4/11, Alloha was the shortest shortie in 2022 at 4/7. Both winners
Another beautiful thing in 2018 was that Coo Star Sivola in the Ultima was the first Festival Handicap favourite in 37 to win. Loved that stat. Have checked, in the 38 handicaps between then and 2022, 10.5 of the favs won, two in 2021. In 2022 first eight handicap favs were beat and then State Man won the County. 2023 Corach Rambler, the 6/1 jt fav in the Ultima, the only handicap fav to oblige. Inothewayurthinkin only h'cap fav to win 2024. Last year Myretown at 13/2, Haiti Couleurs 7/2 jt, Stumptown 5/2 and Kargese at 3/1all won handicaps.
'WHICH ONES TO LAY IN 2026? - I was three from three last year my best ever performance. Playing with live bullets, remember. In my own small way I will be laying Teahupoo, Brighterdaysahead (CH), Lulamba, Its On The LIne.
OVERROUNDS - A topic of questionable value so I've cut it back. Save to say you'll get a smaller overround in the conditions races than the handicaps. With a five runner Arkle last year and a twos on favourite, the overround was 110%. In the Ultima there was a late plunge on Myretown, overround 137%, Lossiemouth's Mares Hurdle stroll produced a 116 when the music stopped and the Champion Hurdle a 113 with Constitution Hill at 1/2. A fair example of the week. It's no secret that you will get 99% overrounds on the Betfair Exchange win book. The average bookmaker overround for the conditions races will be about 115% to 118%. In the handicaps it will hover about the 133% mark depending on liabilities. There are 13 G1s and from 2025, 12 handicaps, three more than in 2024, the Turners, NQ4 miler and the X Country..
As the SPs now do not come from the on course books, look for discrepancies. SP will be easily beaten on course, I guarantee that. If you're lucky enough to be on course, (as I hope to be Tues/Wed 2026) at some stage on the smaller fields, bookies will be bigger than the machine on the front three. If not, they may not lay them for cash. Because we've all got phones. But they won't be bigger for the full 15 mins before the race. You have to go looking for it. Exchanges win book will obviously be bigger on those 10/1 and above.
In my 17 years clerking I have never seen any conspiracies in a ring especially in these times of exchange trading. On course Bookmakers may need each other at times to spread liabilities, but they are still competing against each other. Not sure about off course SPs, myself. Gold Cup day, as we know, is the day when the bookies hold the most money. Thursday used to be the most difficult day for punters day with the three handicaps, but that is changed in 2026. Tuesday alone now has four handicaps.
For punting purposes, Matt Tombs. expert trends man and all round good guy, did some work a while back on the Pricewise tables in the Racing Post. In the morning there will be many occasions when those prices are already gone but the tables for each race come to about 100%. Matt simply explained with bigger SP overrounds at race time, prices may be stronger before noon each day. Especially value if you are still getting BOG.
Other betting stats -. 3/1 and shorter favourite winners in handicaps since 2002 are 9 from 37 (three winners from six last year, Stumptown Kargese, and Jagwar. Just Inothewayurthinkin 2024 winning the Kim Muir, Terao lost 2023, Gaelic Warrior jumping right in the Boodles negated State Man's win at 11/4 County 2022. The Shunter 9/4 Plate and Mount Ida 3/1 Kim Muir 2021. No qualifiers in 2020, Janika and Measureofmydreams both beat in 2019, no qualifiers in the previous two years,
In amateur rider only races 3/1 and under favs are 6 from 25 (Angels Dream 3/1 Hunters last year, 2024 Embassy Gardens NQ4M and It's On The Line negate Inothewayurthinkin. No amateurs allowed in 2021, so can't count Mount Ida win, 2023 Vaucelet beat at 9/4, Billaway won 2022, Run Wild Fred didn't. 2021 Escaria Ten 11/4, Billaway 2/1 vanquished. Carefully Selected and Billaway unsuccessful 2020, Ballyward and Measureofmydreams beat in 2019, no qualifiers 2018, Cantlow 9/4 and On The Fringe losing in 2017. It does take a lot of cash/impetus to make a horse 3/1 fav in a Cheltenham Festival handicap.
ODDS ON - In the last 27 Festivals 36 of 77 odds on shots have been beaten. Nearly half. Always think that's quite amazing. Majborough, Constitution Hill, Jonbon, Ballyburn and Galopin Des Champs last year. In 2024 it was El Fabiolo, Brighterdaysahead Mares Hurdle, Mighty Potter 2023, Galopin and Shishkin in 2022. Seven ran in 2021, four losers. Envoi Allen at 4/9 the shortest. Six in 2020, losers Benie Des Dieux 4/6, Carefully Selected 10/11, Defi du Seuil 2/5, Tiger Roll 8/11, Paisley Park 4/6. Only Envoi Allen at 4/7 obliged. Bumper bookie harvest. Two odds on in 2019, Benie Des Dieux (F). Six ran in 2018, Apples Jade and Un De Sceaux of the six left the money in the satchels. 10th Feb 2026, I don't see any this year. For a change
On-course bookmakers will once again fight bare knuckle in the car park for a pitch (maybe not now lower down in Tatts, I believe). With such huge expenses involved for the week, it must work for them. Pinno tells me that each pitch is paying nearly £1000 per day in exs.
WHICH RACE FAVOURITE MAY HAVE WON TOO OFTEN RECENTLY? - People don't believe me, but when you work as a clerk, you see these things taking their turn, going round. No, no logical reason, it's horse racing, it just happens.
Said it last year. The race with the current best rate for favourites is the Champion Hurdle with 10 winning favs from the last 13. Only last year's carnage, Jezski and Espoir D'Allen spoiled the party. It was neck and neck with the Arkle where 10 of the last 14 have obliged and 11/4 jt favs filling the places in one of the others. But three losing favs in the last six including Majborough last year. All bar Edwardstone of those ten winners were odds on. In the JLT/Marsh/Turners three and two co favs of the last 11 have obliged. And Galopin Des Champs was about to...In two of the other years the Marsh was won by 4/1 shots. Envoi Allen falling at 4/9 spoiled those figures. This is now a handicap, mind. Six of the last 11 Brown Advisory jollies have obliged including three of the last five and Gerri Colombe should have. Ballyburn spoiled that stat. Five of the last ten Triumph Hurdle favourites have won. Five of the last 10 Ryanairs, Nine of the last 22 World Hurdle jollies have gone in but only three from the last 13. Five of the last eight Mildmays/Plates have been won by four favs and a second fav. Might be enough now having been moved to the Old Course? 2021 and 2012 will go down as the years when Mildmay and Kim Muir favourites both won on the same day. Well, to me it will, anyway. W Mullins took the first five versions of the Mares Novice Hurdle but none of the last five. Amazing. Five of the last eight favourites have obliged in the Ballymore, none of them with an SP bigger than 6/4 but only Willoughby Lodge in the last 15 had a bigger price than 7/1.
WHICH FAVOURITES ARE DUE? - The Coral Cup fav Dame De Compagnie obliges in 2020. First time since Xenophon in 2003. And then bang. We're back to a 33/1 2021, 50/1 2022. Langer Dan RIP 9/1 and 13/2 a relative shortie, Jimmy De Seuil 16s. What's due now? Willie's Kargese, State Man and Saint Roi in 2020 take the County off the list. First favs since Sporazene 2004. Stumptown, Delta Work (twice) and Tiger Roll in 2019 make it four Cross Country favs in six to oblige. Hait Couleurs as a 7/2 jt fav followed Galliard Du Mesnil the only National Hunt Chase favs to win since 2013. Now a handicap. The Supreme has now had three in five. Myretown at 13/2 would ease the stress on the Ultima. Coo Star Sivola 2018 and Wichita Lineman 2009 were the only winning favs there since Antonin in '94. Inothewayurthinkin joins Mount Ida only Kim Muir favs in 13. The usually small field Mares Hurdle. Two and a jt in the last 10, some other losing favs there were pretty short. Since Quevega left the stage there's been some losses there.
But the ones I really think are due are the Fred Winter, Band Of Outlaws the only winning fav in 14, the Martin Pipe, Sir Des Champs in 2011 the only fav ever to win any of the 17 and the Albert Bartlett, none in 12. Chosen Mate is the only Grand Annual fav to win since 2013. The fav will win, sometime.
BEATEN FAVOURITES LAST TIME - I used to love this one. That is, until 2023. My theory here is, a beaten favourite is usually a disappointment to punters and connections. If they have disappointed last time out, should we give them another immediate chance in what is very likely to be a higher grade, these Olympics?
In 2015, a total of 64 ran at the Festival having been a BF last time out. No one believed me but not one of them won. In 2016 I was nearly distraught when six Festival winners were BFs last time. Thought it was over between us. 55 ran that year. Winners were Un Temps Pour Tout, Any Currency (a given), Diego Du Charmil, Black Hercules, Ivanovich Gorbatov and On the Fringe. Consoled myself with the knowledge that backing level stakes on all 55 would still have cost you, the punter, 10.5 pts but it took me a while to get over it.
It's always good to see a friend return. In 2017, 53 were PPDs (Punters' Previous Disappointments). One winner, Apples Jade SP 7/2. A lay profit on the beasts of 48.5 pts on the week, or if you are like me, gives you something to strike out in the comic when pouring over the big fields. The BF information is always beside the horse's name on each race page. In 2018 doubt returned. 59 ran, winners were Presenting Percy 5/2 RSA, Penhill 12s (BF at Punchestown Festival), Missed Approach 8s and worst of all, the wonderful Pacha Du Polder at 25s in the Foxhunters. Despite all those, still a level stakes loss of 7.5 pts if you had backed them all at SP. In 2019 the stat comes back to daddy, 62 qualifiers, only one winner A Plus Tard at 5/1 fav in the Close Bros, bookie profit of 56 pts. In 2020, we weren't off to a good start. The Conditional 15/2, Imperial Aura, Champ and Samcro, each at 4/1 meant we were only 8.5 ahead by close of play Thursday. Luckily for me, 21 of the rogues ran on GC day, all beaten. Seven in the County. 2021 44 came, only Minella Indo at 9/1 obliged. +35. 2022. Not a great one. There seems to be less of them taking their chance. 45 PPDs produced winners Corach Rambler 10s, Coole Cody 22s and obviously, A Plus Tard at 3s in the GC. Backing all 45 still lost you 7 units. The funniest bit was that there were only three BFs last time running in the 2022 Ultima and they finished 1st, 2nd and 3rd!
2023 - Annus miserabilis. Six BFS last time won. They were Jazzy Matty 18s, Energumene 6/5, Maskada 22s, Angels Dawn 10/1 Lossiemouth 11/8 and Stay Away Fay 18/1. Since 13 of the 28 races were won by horses who had won last time out, that makes 40% of the rest won by PPDs. Scorn thrown my way by friends. Chin out, Bryan. A loss of 17 pts on SP returns.
2024 - 42 came, three won on the Tuesday, Gaelic Warrior 2/1, Chianti Classico 6/1 and Corbetts Cross 15/8. Still made a profit on the day. 28 others came over the next three days. None won though Kyntara came close. Weeks profit +29.
2025 - Far from a vintage year. 47 turned up, 5 winners. Jango Baie, Lossiemouth, Calwell Potter Daily present and Kargese. The two on Thursday were the only ones in their respective fields. That stung! Possibly still 10 points ahead laying them all.
Drum roll, please. Since the turn of the century, 1169 horses have run at the Festival having been beaten favourite last time out. A total of 55 of the PPDs won for a 4.7% strike rate. About a 22/1 chance for each winner. Since 2000 on £1 stakes backing them all you will only show a profit of £21 in the RSA, £20 in the County Hurdle and thanx to Pacha du Polder, you're only £2.25p down in the Foxhunters. No other race in profit. Backing all beaten favs last time blindly SP to £1 would have left you £557 adrift. It had been suggested in the RP that the four RSA winning 'beaten favs', Lord Noelie, Hussard Collonges, Trabolgan and Presenting Percy were beaten either at 'sharp' tracks or at a distance less than 3 miles. Maybe hmmm.
17 of the 55 winners had been beaten last time out at evens or shorter (Three last year, Jango Baie 10/11, Lossiemouth 8/11, Kargese 2/5, 25 were Irish trained including three from five last year, five from the six in 2023, eight were P Nicholls, five Henderson. Fantastic stuff. This is the Olympics. Do you get a second chance to disappoint? Those that may be involved in this poser for 2026 include Final Demand, Lossiemouth, Mydaddypaddy, Marine Nationale, Galopin Des Champs. Its On The Line. Il Etait Temps.