• Gaultstats - Cheltenham 2024

     

    The Only Trends You'll Need

     

    'You know the drill. Take advantage of Bryan's obsession, then you do something good for a worthy cause. Can't recommend this enough.' Rory Delargy

     

     

    http://www.justgiving.com/page/bryan-gault-1704309337466 

     

     

    Target of £3000 set for charity donations. Friday 15th currently at £2400. Many thanks to those who have donated.

     

    www.justgiving.com/page/bryan-gault-1704309337466

     

    In 2024 I ask for donations to the My Name'5 Doddie Foundation. They aim to have a world free of Motor Neurone Disease but also to inform and support patients and their families.  

     

    Rugby Union and NH Racing have always been my joint sporting passions. In my youth I was a highly unconstructive junior league second row, the word 'donkey' used on more than one occasion. I then spent 20 privileged years as a slow referee followed by another two decades standing as a Season Ticket holder in Ulster's East Terrace where I continually fight for the ref's corner! Doesn't make me popular.

     

    Doddie Weir was capped 61 times by Scotland. A British and Irish Lion. He and his family's fight against MND touched the hearts of all sports lovers in these islands and further afield. As does the continued trojan efforts of Rob Burrows and Kevin Sinfield. The link below takes you to Doddie's site where the work of his foundation is described in detail, especially the way that they support patients and families. I would ask you to visit the site. The justgiving link above will take you to my donation page. All donations to Gstats go straight to the foundation. Nothing to me or to site maintenance. I cover those expenses. From my contact with the foundation, it seems that Doddie was 'a big fan of the horses.' Nice to know.

     

    https://www.myname5doddie.co.uk/who-we-are/ 

     

     

    '....it's insane, the depth...I love this treasure trove of numbers...' Ross Brierley - In The Know RP.

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    'Lots of interesting stuff on Gaultstats...certainly things I didn't know.' - Matt Tombs

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    'There's no place like this on earth.'  Ruby Walsh. 'This doesn't happen to people like us.' Maxine O'Sullivan. 'I wish I had the words, this is just a magical place,' Rachael Blackmore. 'One winner at Cheltenham is what it's all about,' Kim Bailey. National Hunt owners, trainers and jockeys dream about winning at this Festival. Being involved with a winner ensures an entry into the National Hunt Hall of Fame even if the race concerned may 'only' be the quirky Cross Country. Michael O'Leary 'The experience of the four days is unbelievable.'

     

    The higher the grade of race, the more likely that horses will repeat or improve on their last run. No higher grade than here. And since all concerned are doing their damnest to win, trends can emerge of those most likely (or not) to succeed.

    Using Gaultstats

     

    'If (we) could learn from history, what lessons it might teach us.' - Samuel Taylor Coleridge

     

    For me, there are only two Cheltenham Trends Rules.

     

    1. The beauty of any Cheltenham Stat lies solely in the eye of the beholder. This means that you, the reader, decide what is relevant. If it has happened ten Festivals in a row, you might decide it's not going to happen this time. Fine. No rule book demands how one should interpret Cheltenham Festival Trends. T'is your money and I won't get offended. Personally, I'm not that keen on betting stats, except those that tell me that the favourite has a 'poor record in this race.' I'm a bit obtuse. The unnamed favourite will win, some year.

     

    2. All stats will pass. It is only a matter of when. Festival Big Beast Trends get shot down most years. Be prepared for that. The Bula stat, who was Bula, laughed Constitution Hill. First Supreme/Champion Hurdle double since 1971. Hatton's Grace runner wins Stayers. The first this century. Never mind those two. At last year's Festival six, yes six of the 28 races were won by horses who had been Beaten Favourite BF last time out. At SP prices including 18/1 twice. 10/1, 22/1. One of my favourite stats, buried. 2022 - L'Homme Presse wins the 3m Grade 1 Novice Chase, the first FRE bred since 2006. 2021 - Mare wins Queen Mother. Never happened before. 2020 - Saint Roi, the first since Thumbs Up in '93 to win a County Hurdle on a first ever handicap run. 2019 Espoir D'Allen, an unconsidered five year old, strolled home in the Champion Hurdle. But as one disappears, other 'rock solid' stats will take their place. Was going to say short priced Arkle favourites, but that seems to have gone?

     

    Horses identified in italics are being aimed to contest the race about which you are reading. As the countdown continues effort will be made to update races with confirmed runners and how they might fit in (or out).

    The General Trends page covers information and musings that don't really refer to any specific race. This includes jockeys, trainers, how W Mullins is no respecter of Cheltenham stats, stats on Pricewise, course winners, Gault's Momentum Theory, Fate of the Favourites et al. A big Gstats aim in 2024 is to make this section shorter. Click on the links and share the concerns of family and friends as to how I spend six weeks at the start of every year. There's a quiz and other stuff, including a stats review of the 2023 Festival. 'Which Bookmaker?' can cause the odd irritation to Twitter bookmaker reps but you won't get the same anywhere else that needs sponsorship to survive.

     

    It's my site and my decision not to have any ads. There's no app but should you wish, you can put a shortcut on your phone/PC. The Honours Boards should scroll from left to right on the phone version. I'm not happy that the phone version is not as tidy as the PC but my 'Happiness' tech people tell me there is little they can do.

     

    By 11 am each Festival day my selections for that day will be at the top of this page. Feel free to disagree.

     

    Feedback positive and constructive welcomed at https://twitter.com/gaultstats or email bgault01@gmail.com. Reasonable theories will be researched. As I am old fashioned, I still don't consider the Punchestown or Galway Festivals as being 'this season.' A big continued thank you to Ashleigh Watson at ash@coppersquareni.com for her work, without which, this wouldn't be here. And to John, for his excellent voluntary proofreading.

     

    Good luck. I hope this tool brings you success and profit, please don't forget to give. And let's not take it too seriously. It is meant to be fun.

     

    As ever, a labour of love,

     

    Bryan