Cheltenham 2018

    The Only Trends You Will Need



    After Relegate's confidence boosting (for me) swoop at 28s in the bumper, kicked on Thursday with Shattered Love, Penhill and Laurina. Hopefully ew money gained on Splash Of Ginge 25s and Actinpieces 33s. More success on Friday with the Triumph 1-2 from only two selections (£40 exacta) and Blow By Blow at 11s.


    Summary of what worked and what didn't to follow later after the 6 Nations (that could be much later).


    Over 12500 unique users on the site in the last six weeks. £2.7k so far in donations for Guide Dogs. Humbling. Thank you. Will keep Justgiving page open over the weekend should you wish to donate.


    Wed February 28th - Phil Smith and Irish handicap marks. He doesn't annoy anyone, even Kevin Blake. The Irish are obviously thrown in. The last three Triumph Hurdle Favourites have won. No Festival race this century has been won by 4 successive different favourites. No winning favourite in ANY of the last 36 Festival Handicaps, hurdles or chases. An 'overripe' stat?



    The hope remains that you make money in Festival week and this site in some small way contributes to your successful decision making processes. As ever, a labour of love


    A big thank you to Ashleigh Watson at ash@coppersquareni.com for her work on Gaultstats which has been well received by the great and good below.




  • A labour of love from Bryan, well worth a look for those who love a stat or two, and there's a quiz'. Rory Delargy (WHill Radio, Matchbook and Final Furlong Podcasts, Irish Field Columnist. Not much he isn't good at. 22nd February 2018)


    'You are spot on re Willie Mullins'. Tony Keenan, @RacingTrends, Final Furlong Podcast Legend. Feb 22nd '18 (I swear he said it, I have the tweet.)


    'Lots of interesting stuff on Gaultstats... certainly things I didn't know.' Matt Tombs (the man who is the Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide from 2016)


    'If you are looking for comprehensive trends at the Cheltenham Festival, Gaultstats appears to have all angles covered with an in depth guide to each race and the general meeting trends.' Paul Jones (www.pauljoneshorseracing.com and author of The Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide 2000-2015) 24th Feb 2017


    'Heaving oceans of stats. Gaultstats...a near obsession...never fails to engage...barely a syllable of slack... contains every stat ever compiled about the festival... dry wit, some funny....packed with more nuggets than a KFC warehouse in a chicken glut...' Robin Gibson (Racing Post Sunday Supplement Feb '18)


    'Gault is the Statsman' - Margie McCloone (Irish Field 11th March 2017 )



    Guide Dogs For The Blind

    Each year I produce Gaultstats to support a different charity. In 2018 I am supporting my friend Gordon McMillen and his wife Orrlene who are volunteers for Guide Dogs For The Blind, Northern Ireland. The work of Guide Dogs has never been so vital. In UK and Ireland today, almost two million people are living with sight loss and of those, around 180000 rarely leave their homes alone. Many suffer from depression and struggle with feelings of isolation. When someone loses their sight, Guide Dogs are there to make sure they don't lose their freedom as well.


    Orrlene is a Puppy Walker and spends about a year with each puppy, instilling obedience and socialisation skills in a wide variety of situations. The work starts with a puppy of 7 weeks and continues until the dog is around 12 to 14 months when it goes to Forfar for its next stage of training in harness. This is a difficult time for the puppy walkers as they have become emotionally attached to the pup they have had in their home for a year. However knowing that this pup may become eyes for someone to help them live an independent life makes it all worthwhile. Guide Dogs For The Blind is financed by charitable donations. Orrlene and Gordon give their time and effort to bring up and train a lovely animal who will be a friend and an aid to a person who may be unable to read this. Now, get your card out please and give a few quid/euro.


    Previous collections have been for North Down Samaritans, Cancer Research and the Jonjo Bright Trust. If you have given before, I thank you. Please give again. A fiver is fine. No monies go to me. Keen to match or better last year's total of £2500 raised for the Samaritans.

    The Cheltenham Festival

    'There's no place like this on earth' says Ruby Walsh, frequently. This is where all National Hunt owners, trainers and jockeys dream about winning. Being involved with a winner ensures an entry in the National Hunt Role of Honour even if the race concerned may 'only' be the quirky Cross Country Chase. (If he turns up, Cause Of Causes is a certainty). Nigel Twiston-Davies, 23rd Feb 2018, 'We've won nearly £1.4m this season and that's great, but you're judged on your Cheltenham wins.' Harry Fry, Feb 2017, talking after Unowhatimeanharry won the Albert Bartlett - 'A Festival winner is what everyone in National Hunt racing strives to achieve and to get the first one was a watershed moment and a huge achievement for the team.' Since all are doing their damnest to win, trends can emerge of those most likely (or not) to succeed. After 30 odd years of doing this, I find myself left with only two rules about Cheltenham Stats. 'The relevance of every stat is in the eye of the beholder' and 'All Cheltenham Stats will die. It is only a matter of when.' Proved by Un Temps Pour Tout in the 2017 Ultima 3m h'cap chase putting Scot Lane to bed after three decades. Scot Lane must have been some horse.

    How to use Gault Stats


    I first attended this fantastic event in 1985 and have been collecting information about it ever since. Went last year for the first time in a while and really do recommend sitting outside the See You Then Bar in the sun with an early pint. The links above will take you to directly to each race. On each race page there will be Headline stats for that race. The next few lines will summarise a possible Profile of the winner. That profile will concentrate on trends that are correct to 90%+ over the last few Festivals. The rest of each race page will comprise the evidence to back up the profile. The profile may also suggest something that is overdue to happen or an 'overripe stat' that might be due to fall. For example, if the favourite hasn't won the race in years. The favourite will win, sometime. Horses identified in italics are being aimed to contest the race about which you are reading. As the countdown continues effort will be made to update races with confirmed runners and how they might fit in.

    The General Trends page covers lots of information and musings that doesn't really refer to any specific race. This includes jockeys, trainers, how W Mullins is no respecter of Cheltenham stats, stats on Pricewise, preview nights, course winners, Fate of the Favourites et al. Click on the link and become concerned as to how I spend my time. Well, maybe. There is a quiz and a page about my visits to meetings at all UK and Irish racecourses, a task which will finally conclude with a trip to the Newmarket July course this summer. Yes, I've been to Tramore, Pontefract, Ballinrobe, Hamilton, Hexham and Plumpton. Lovely places with nice people. Sorry, but I'm behind with my schedule on the course write ups.


    On each day of the Festival I will post selections for each race at the top of this home page. For the benefit of my friend Gary, these selections will be my view of those with the best chances / value as identified by my interpretation of GaultStats (He believes that there are rules about this and that 'You can't say that'). Feel free to come to your own conclusions.


    The hope remains that you make money in Festival week and this site in some small way contributes to your successful decision making processes.


    As ever, a labour of love




    (Feedback please to twitter @gaultstats or email bgault01@gmail.com. Any reasonable theories researched. Am I am old fashioned, I don't count Punchestown as being 'this season'. Reliably informed the site works fastest on Google Chrome)




All Posts
Wealth Warning.  Any decisions made (or not) or the basis of any information in this site are the sole responsibility of the reader.  There is no obligation on me to follow my own advice (Gary).  I take no responsibility for (but am keen to hear of) any factual errors.  Previous years ‘stats on stats’ would suggest we may identify a decent priced winner from manageable groups every three or four races.  I tend to improve as a tipster as the week goes on, possibly too worried on the Tuesday.  It is believed that Savello (2014 Grand Annual) took from Golden Chieftain (2013 3m hcap chase) the record for breaking the most stats in a race.  Stands now at 8.  Cole Harden equalised with 8 in the 2015 World Hurdle.  Remember, after you have cursed/laughed at me and given up totally on trends, they will come back to bite.  Always happens.  Usually on Gold Cup Day

Beware GO SEA - Groundless Optimism Syndrome Encouraged by Alcohol.  A Cotswold condition very common at this time of year.