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    Gaultstats

    Cheltenham 2020

    The Only Trends You'll Need.

     

     

    'I can't recommend this enough.' - Rory Delargy

     

    'Gault is the Statsman...a near obsession...packed with more nuggets than a KFC warehouse in a chicken glut.' (Racing Post)

     

    'Superb stuff.' - Kevin Morley, Racing Post Trends  

  • This lady deserves sponsorship and support. Don't forget to give.

    And leave us a message.

    Debbie Matthews being interviewed On Luck On Sunday 10th February

    https://www.racingtv.com/videos/watch/ondemand/84256

     

    https://goracinggreen.co.uk

     

    23rd - Luck on Sunday - Simon Says 'its soft to heavy at the moment.'

     

    23rd - SKYBET First £10 bet in Supreme - if loser, stake back as cash. A bit disappointing.

     

    Sean Graham Preview Night Belfast Europa 2nd March. Gordon Elliott, David Casey, Kevin Blake, The Couch, all well marshalled by Gary O'Brien. Its one of the best ones. Sells out every year. Brian Graham kindly gives me complimentaries to sell for good causes. Last half dozen left. £10 minimum. Email or @gaultstats.

     

    21st - Hills, Betfair Sportsbook, Betfred, betway now the only main ones NOT going NRNB. BET365 only one going NRNB and BOG.

     

    20th - 156 Entries in the Martin Pipe. Outsider of field priced at 33/1. That is at least a 500% overround. Wait.

     

     

    Each year Gaultstats likes to support a good cause.

     

    Previous collections have been for Marie Curie, Guide Dogs, North Down Samaritans and Cancer Research amongst others. In 2020 I want to draw your attention to the fine work being done by Debbie Matthews with the https://goracinggreen.co.uk @novicefilly.

     

    Check out her work on her site. Her words to me -

    "I have created #GoRacingGreen to make racecourses, and the racing industry, aware of the many racing fans that face challenges when attending a race day, and therefore are not able to enjoy a day at the races. In my own time I have started making my way around the country to visit racecourses and present to them. I explain how people who live with conditions such as social anxiety, dementia, autism, loneliness, PTSD and conditions that affect their confidence struggle with a race day environment."

     

    As a dementia champion and an accessible and dementia tourism officer, Debbie plans to educate racecourse staff by providing awareness training, identifying a safe and quiet space on course that can be available on a raceday. With her experience and professional knowledge she has written online sensory and "invisible" accessibility guides for the courses to place on their websites, providing essential pre-event information to allow people to plan their day. So far Newbury, Chester, Salisbury and Nottingham have taken her up on this initiative. She hopes to take this initiative to Ireland.

     

    This is the example from the Nottingham site https://www.thejockeyclub.co.uk/nottingham/visitor-info/go-racing-green/

     

    Now, those that know Bryan Gault, might suggest that he would be one of the last people on earth to be allowed anywhere near a 'quiet' place on a racecourse especially when helping Frodon up the hill (ye daisy). I would have been embarrassingly pretty unaware of the community behind Debbie who face various challenges, or care for people that do.

    There is a #goracinggreen community programme that provides stable visits for small groups. This is supported by Unibet. Well done to that bookmaker. Rory Delargy has also written articles about this issue in the Irish Field. There are #goracinggreen racedays being organised at racecourses throughout UK and Ireland. Met her at the Boyne Hurdle, Navan, 16th February. Lovely family. Admired her drive and determination.

     

    I am keen to help. Debbie has emphasised to me that GoRacingGreen is not a charity but a community project. Travelling to racecourses, presenting to them and making them aware of the issues that some people face is done voluntarily by her. If a racecourse wishes to take up the initiative they pay a fee to cover her expenses. Some courses have not taken up the initiative so she is out of pocket. This is a one person operation, the lady is doing a good thing and she deserves sponsorship and support.

     

    If you have given before to Gaultstats causes, I thank you. Please give again. A fiver is fine. No money goes to me or the site. Giving you two options this year. If you wish to donate, go to https://goracinggreen.co.uk/merchandise scroll down to the donate button and click. If you wish your donation to sponsor Debbie, mark it 'Gstats Sponsor'. Debbie will keep records how any sponsorship is spent. If you would prefer your donation goes to charity, mark it 'Gstats Charity.' Any charitable donations will be equally split between Samaritans and the Retraining Of Horses Trust.

     

    Will keep people informed of any monies collected.

     

    Enjoy the Festival and Gaultstats. Have fun. I hope that the site in some small way contributes to your correct betting decision making processes.

    The Cheltenham Festival

    'I wish I had the words.' Rachel Blackmore, after Minella Indo won last year. 'To ride a winner at the Festival is priceless', Patrick Mullins after Rathvinden in 2018. 'There's no place like this on earth' Ruby Walsh, frequently. National Hunt owners, trainers and jockeys dream about winning at this Festival. Being involved with a winner ensures an entry in the National Hunt Role of Honour even if the race concerned may 'only' be the quirky Cross Country Chase. Life has changed for Emma Lavelle since Paisley Park came along, 'he is our horse of a lifetime, the one who took us to where we are now.' Aidan Coleman echoed 'It means the world.' The higher the grade of horse, the more likely they will repeat or improve on their last run. No higher grade than here. And since all are doing their damnest to win, trends can emerge of those most likely (or not) to succeed.

    Using Gaultstats

    'If men could learn from history, what lessons it might teach us.' Samuel Taylor Coleridge

     

    I first attended this fantastic event in 1985 and have been collecting stuff about it ever since. I love it. It is a marvellous occasion and venue. Really do recommend sitting outside the See You Then Bar overlooking the parade ring in the March sun with an early beverage.

     

    The links on the home page top line take to each raceday and race. On each race page there are Headline stats for that race. Then a summary of the possible profile of the winner, concentrating on trends that are correct to 90%+ over the last few Festivals. The rest of each race page will comprise the evidence to back up the profile. I may suggest something that is overdue to happen or an 'overripe stat' that might be due to fall. For example, if the favourite hasn't won the race in years or in the case of the 2019 Arkle, the favourite had won the last four in a row. In 2020 it might be that Nigel and Sam Twiston Davies are due to come off the cold list.

     

    After doing this for 35 years, I find myself left with only two rules about Cheltenham Stats. 'The beauty of each stat lies solely in the eye of the beholder' and 'All Cheltenham Stats die. It is only a matter of when.' The former means that you decide what's relevant. Paul Jones in his excellent book on betting, From Soba To Moldova, was right to get defensive about stats stating that 'trends is just another word for facts and data and we don't dismiss those.' If it has happened ten Festivals in a row, you might decide that its not going to happen this time. Fine. There is no rule book. Its your money and I won't get offended. I spent most of the Festival Nineties losing money as I regularly proclaimed, 'That can't win because.....' No longer do I utter those words.

     

    Festival Big Beast Stats get shot down most years, for example last year a five year old strolled home in the Champion Hurdle. The County Hurdle was won by Ch'tibello, a horse who was rated too high, wasn't Irish trained, not a second season hurdler, had a massive 19 previous hurdle runs and was too old at eight. But 'always the plan' said Dan Skelton (who admittedly had some recent previous success in the race!). In 2018, Delta Work a French bred five year old French Bred wins the Pertemps Final. First French Bred since '94, first five year old since Pragada in '88. Would nearly drive you to more than one beverage.

     

    Horses identified in italics are being aimed to contest the race about which you are reading. As the countdown continues effort will be made to update races with confirmed runners and how they might fit in.

    The General Trends page covers lots of information and musings that doesn't really refer to any specific race. This includes jockeys, trainers, how W Mullins is no respecter of Cheltenham stats, stats on Pricewise, preview nights, course winners, Fate of the Favourites et al. Click on the links and share the concerns of my family and friends as to how I spend six weeks at the start of every year. There is a quiz and other stuff, including a review of the 2018 and 2019 Festivals.

      

    On each day of the Festival I will post selections for each race at the top of this home page. These remain my view of those with the best chances / value as identified by my interpretation of GaultStats. Please feel free to come to your own conclusions.

     

    As ever, a labour of love,

     

    Bryan

     

    (Feedback positive or constructive welcomed at twitter @gaultstats or email bgault01@gmail.com. Reasonable theories will be researched. As I am old fashioned, I don't count Punchestown as being 'this season'. Site works fastest on Google Chrome).

     

    A big thank you to Ashleigh Watson at ash@coppersquareni.com for her continued work, without which, this wouldn't be here.

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Wealth Warning.  Any decisions made (or not) or the basis of any information in this site are the sole responsibility of the reader.  There is no obligation on me to follow my own advice.  I take no responsibility for (but am keen to hear of) any factual errors.  (Bgault01@gmail.com, @gaultstats). Previous years ‘stats on stats’ would suggest we may identify a decent priced winner from manageable groups every three or four races.  It is believed that Savello (2014 Grand Annual) took from Golden Chieftain (2013 3m hcap chase) the record for breaking the most stats in a race.  Stands now at 8.  Cole Harden equalised with 8 in the 2015 World Hurdle.  Remember, after you have cursed/laughed at me and given up totally on trends, they will come back to bite.  Always happens.  Usually on Gold Cup Day. 

Beware GO SEA - Groundless Optimism Syndrome Encouraged by Alcohol.  A Cotswold condition very common at this time of year.