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    Gaultstats

    Cheltenham 2020

    The Only Trends You'll Need.

     

     

    'I can't recommend this enough.' - Rory Delargy

     

    'Gault is the Statsman...a near obsession...packed with more nuggets than a KFC warehouse in a chicken glut.' (Racing Post)

     

    'Superb stuff.' - Kevin Morley, Racing Post Trends  

  • All Gstats to be updated by 14th February 2020. Hope this year to gain support for the goracinggreen.co.uk initiative championed by Debbie Matthews. You may have seen Debbie being interviewed by Oli Bell on The Morning Show end of December. Check out the sterling work on her site.

     

     

    15th January BET365 NRNB and BOG the five big races.

    14th January - 36 entries in Champion Hurdle, biggest number for years. Now there's a surprise.

    12th January Skybet NRNB all Festival races. About 300% overround per race.

     

     

     

     

    Each year Gaultstats supports a different charity.

     

    Previous collections have been for Marie Curie, Guide Dogs, North Down Samaritans, Cancer Research and the Jonjo Bright Trust amongst others. If you have given before, I thank you. See above about this years chosen charity.

     

    The Cheltenham Festival

    'To ride a winner around here is priceless', Patrick Mullins. 'There's no place like this on earth' says Ruby Walsh, frequently. All National Hunt owners, trainers and jockeys dream about winning at this Festival. Being involved with a winner ensures an entry in the National Hunt Role of Honour even if the race concerned may 'only' be the quirky Cross Country Chase. 'A winner at the Festival is my ambition,' Jack Tudor January 5th, ten days after a fine win in the Welsh National.' The higher the grade of horse, the more likely they will repeat or improve on their last run. No higher grade than here. And since all are doing their damnest to win, trends can emerge of those most likely (or not) to succeed.

    Using Gaultstats

    'If men could learn from history, what lessons it might teach us.' Samuel Taylor Coleridge

    I first attended this fantastic event in 1985 and have been collecting stuff about it ever since. I love it. It is a marvellous occasion and venue. Really do recommend sitting outside the See You Then Bar in the March sun with an early pint.

     

    The links on the home page top line will take you directly to each raceday and race. On each race page there are Headline stats for that race. The next few lines will summarise a possible Profile of the winner. That profile will concentrate on trends that are correct to 90%+ over the last few Festivals. The rest of each race page will comprise the evidence to back up the profile. I may suggest something that is overdue to happen or an 'overripe stat' that might be due to fall. For example, if the favourite hasn't won the race in years or in the case of the 2019 Arkle, the favourite had won the last four in a row.

     

    After doing this for over 30 years, I find myself left with only two rules about Cheltenham Stats. 'The beauty of each stat lies solely in the eye of beholder' and 'All Cheltenham Stats die. It is only a matter of when.' The former means that you decide what's relevant. Paul Jones in his excellent book on betting, From Soba To Moldova, was right to get defensive about stats stating that 'trends is just another word for facts and data and we don't dismiss those.' If it has happened ten Festivals in a row, you might decide that its not going to happen this time. Fine. There is no rule book. Its your money. Festival Stats get knocked down most years, for example last year a five year old strolled home in the Champion Hurdle. The County Hurdle was won by Ch'tibello, a horse who was rated too high, wasn't Irish trained, not a second season hurdler, had a massive 19 previous hurdle runs and was too old at eight. But 'always the plan' said Dan Skelton. In 2018, Delta Work a French bred five year old French Bred wins the Pertemps Final. First French Bred since '94, first five year old since Pragada in '88. Would nearly drive you to drink.

     

    Horses identified in italics are being aimed to contest the race about which you are reading. As the countdown continues effort will be made to update races with confirmed runners and how they might fit in.

    The General Trends page covers lots of information and musings that doesn't really refer to any specific race. This includes jockeys, trainers, how W Mullins is no respecter of Cheltenham stats, stats on Pricewise, preview nights, course winners, Fate of the Favourites et al. Click on the link and share the concerns of my friends and family as to how I spend my time. There is a quiz and other stuff, including a review of the 2018 and 2019 Festivals.

      

    On each day of the Festival I will post selections for each race at the top of this home page. These remain my view of those with the best chances / value as identified by my interpretation of GaultStats. Please feel free to come to your own conclusions.

     

    As ever, a labour of love,

     

    Bryan

     

    (Feedback positive or constructive welcomed at twitter @gaultstats or email bgault01@gmail.com. Reasonable theories will be researched. As I am old fashioned, I don't count Punchestown as being 'this season'. Reliably informed the site works fastest on Google Chrome).

     

    A big thank you to Ashleigh Watson at ash@coppersquareni.com for her work, without which, this wouldn't be here.

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Wealth Warning.  Any decisions made (or not) or the basis of any information in this site are the sole responsibility of the reader.  There is no obligation on me to follow my own advice.  I take no responsibility for (but am keen to hear of) any factual errors.  (Bgault01@gmail.com, @gaultstats). Previous years ‘stats on stats’ would suggest we may identify a decent priced winner from manageable groups every three or four races.  I tend to improve as a tipster as the week goes on, possibly too worried on the Tuesday.  It is believed that Savello (2014 Grand Annual) took from Golden Chieftain (2013 3m hcap chase) the record for breaking the most stats in a race.  Stands now at 8.  Cole Harden equalised with 8 in the 2015 World Hurdle.  Remember, after you have cursed/laughed at me and given up totally on trends, they will come back to bite.  Always happens.  Usually on Gold Cup Day. Oh yes, and if you're called Rory Delargy, you can't win the quiz too often.

Beware GO SEA - Groundless Optimism Syndrome Encouraged by Alcohol.  A Cotswold condition very common at this time of year.