The New GaultStats
The Only Trends You Need
2017 Winners Tipped - Tiger Roll 16s, Apples Jade 7/2, Un De Sceaux 2/1, Pacha De Polder 20s, Rock the World 9s . Those placed included TwoTaffs, Singlefarmpayment, Minella Rocco, Air Horse One, Wholestone and Runfordave.
A big thank you to Ashleigh Watson at email@example.com who came to see my 'historically messy' google site in mid January '17. Thought I was mad. She has produced www.gaultstats.com which is easier to navigate, nicer to look at and well received by media reviewers including the Racing Post.
'If you are looking for comprehensive trends at the Cheltenham Festival, Gaultstats appears to have all angles covered with an in depth guide to each race and the general meeting trends.' Paul Jones (www.pauljoneshorseracing.com and author of The Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide 2000-2015) 24th Feb 2017
'Lots of interesting stuff on Gaultstats... certainly things I didn't know.' Matt Tombs (author of the Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide from 2016)
'Heaving oceans of stats. Gaultstats ..contains every stat ever compiled about the festival... dry wit, some funny....provides plenty to ponder....nuggets galore.' Robin Gibson (Racing Post Sunday Supplement March '16)
'Gault is the Statsman' - Margie McCloone (Irish Field 11th March 2017 )
In 2017 I am supporting the Samaritans Charity. My friend Wesley gives freely of his time to perform at least three shifts a week for Bangor Samaritans in North Down. These shifts include nights, weekends and bank holidays. Wesley and many other volunteers take calls and emails from all over the UK and Ireland and do their level best to help and counsel distressed people. He could pick up a call from someone living in Cork or the Cairngorms or in Dover or Donegal. The Samaritans are financed solely by charitable donations and my local branch is in need of funds. So please take a minute, click on my Virgin Giving page above and get your card out. Gaultstats had over 10000 site visits in 2016 and raised £1600 for Marie Curie. Previous collections have been for Cancer Research and the Jonjo Bright Trust. If you have given before, thank you. Please give again. A fiver is fine. No monies go to me. I would like to match or better last year's total. If you are from the South, the low value of sterling should make it easier to give. Should you not be aware of the Samaritans work in UK or Ireland just go to www.samaritans.org. Remember, a family member or friend might be needing their help.
The Cheltenham Festival
'There's no place like this on earth' said Ruby Walsh in the Racing Post Tuesday 15th March 2016. The Cheltenham Festival is where all National Hunt owners, trainers and jockeys dream about winning. Being involved with a winner ensures an entry in the National Hunt Role of Honour even if the race concerned may 'only' be the quirky Cross Country Chase. Harry Fry, Feb 2017 talking about Unowhatimeanharry - 'A Festival winner is what everyone in National Hunt racing strives to achieve and to get the first one was a watershed moment and a huge achievement for the team.' Since all are doing their damnest to win, trends can emerge of those most likely to succeed. But remember, there are no hard and fast rules. They are horses, after all. Pricewise himself will scoff at stats but has often been heard discussing possible winning profiles. Morning Line 9 Jan 2016 - "Older horses don't win Welsh Nationals". Careful, Tom, that did sound like a view based on trends. Racing Post 24th February 2017 Colin Tizzard - "If Cue Card wasn't 11 I'm sure he would be favourite" Knows his stats.
How to use Gault Stats
I first attended this fantastic event in 1985. I have been collecting information about it ever since. The links above will take you to directly to each race. This year on each race page there will be headline stats for that race. Please note, I don't say 'relevant', I say 'headline'. The old Stats Proverb says 'Relevance Is In The Eye Of The Beholder.' The next few lines will summarise a possible profile of the winner. That profile will concentrate on trends that are correct to 90%+ over the last few Festivals. The rest of each race page will then comprise the evidence to back up the profile. The summary may also suggest something that is overdue to happen or an 'overripe stat' that might be due to fall. For example, if the favourite hasn't won the race in years. Horses identified in italics are being aimed to contest the race about which you are reading. As the countdown continues effort will be made to update races with confirmed runners and how they might fit in.
The General Trends page covers lots of data and musings that doesn't really refer to any specific race. This includes jockeys, trainers, stats on Pricewise, preview nights, course winners, Fate of the Favourites et al. Click on the link and prepare to be amazed. Well, maybe. This year for the first time we have a quiz and a page about my visits to all UK and Irish racecourses, a task nearing its conclusion.
On each day of the Festival I will post selections for each race at the top of this home page.
These selections will be my view of those with the best chances / value as identified by GaultStats. I try to make effort not to tip anything that will be 3/1 or shorter. (that might be changed, reason to be found in the Fate of The Favourites on the General Trends). 2016 successes included Itsafreebee 14s w/o 2, Diamond King, Empire of Dirt, Superb Story, Tango de Juilley (33s ew). But feel free to come to your own conclusions.
Hope you like the new layout. The hope remains that you make money in Festival week and this site in some small way contributes to your successful decision making processes.
As ever, a labour of love
Remember to give.
Wealth Warning. Any decisions made (or not) or the basis of any information in this site are the sole responsibility of the reader. There is no obligation on me to follow my own advice (Gary). The Stats Proverb says 'Relevance Is In The Eye Of The Beholder.' I take no responsibility for (but am keen to hear of) any factual errors. Previous years ‘stats on stats’ would suggest we may identify a decent priced winner from manageable groups every three or four races. I tend to improve as a tipster as the week goes on, possibly too concerned on the Tuesday. It is believed that Savello (2014 Grand Annual) took from Golden Chieftain (2013 3m hcap chase) the record for breaking the most stats in a race. Stands now at 8. Cole Harden equalised with 8 in the 2015 World Hurdle. Remember, after you have cursed/laughed at me and given up totally on trends, they will come back to bite. Always happens. Usually on Gold Cup Day
Beware GO SEA - Groundless Optimism Syndrome Encouraged by Alcohol. A Cotswold condition very common at this time of year.