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    Sky Bet Supreme Novices Hurdle

     

    HEADLINES

    The last 12 winners all 5 or 6 yr olds.

    10 of the last 12 winners had all run at least 4 times over hurdles.

    No horse wearing any type of headgear has won this since Flown 1992.

    The Betfair Hurdle winner has yet to win this.

    Champagne Fever '13 is the only Champion Bumper winner to double up since Montelado '93. 5 of the last 6 bumper winners to try, all beaten at under 9/1.

    Eight of the last nine winners had all won a Graded novice hurdle.

    Nine of the last ten won last time out.

    17 of the last 18 had won at least 50% of all hurdle starts in UK and Ire.

    In six of the last eight, W Mullins has trained at least one horse to finish in the first two. Has won this 6 times.

    In the last seven, thirteen horses came to the race with a BHA Rating of at least 153. Five won and four others were placed.

    SUMMARY

    Race distance - 2 miles and abt half a furlong.

     

    Aged 5 or 6 yrs. Has won at least once over hurdles. Won last time out. Has won at least 50% of all hurdle starts in UK and Ire. Ran in the last 66 days or unbeaten over hurdles. Won last time out. At least 4 previous hurdle runs. At least 4 total runs as a racehorse. Will be trained in Ireland or by N Henderson. If ran on the Flat, must have won at least G3 Novice hurdle. Graded win this season, if tried in one. Previous course form not vital but if has run before on the course, should have won or gone close. Beware reading too much into previous times over 2 mile hurdles. Last run was in a novice hurdle and not an all aged graded or a handicap. No headgear. If Irish trained, can be any price. Watch for any horse who starts under 10/1 and ran in last years Champion Bumper. 4 yr olds and mares a rarity. Strongly consider G1 winner at the DRF.

     

     

     

     

  • Honours Board

    Year||| Form||| Winner||| Age||| OR||| SP |||Trainer |||Jockey||| Runners||| Last race (No. of days)

    2020||| F11 ||| Shiskin |||6||| 153 |||6/1 ||| N Henderson||| N de Boinville |||15 |||1st Lstd H'tgdon (33)

    2019 |||11||| Klassical Dream||| 5||| 154 |||6/1 |||W Mullins(IRE)||| R Walsh |||16 |||1st G1 Leop Chanelle Hdle (37)

    2018||| 12231||| Summerville Boy||| 6 |||150||| 9/1 |||T George |||Noel Fehily |||19 |||1st GI Sandown Tolworth (66)

    2017||| 11RR6 ||| Labaik |||6 |||144 |||25/1 |||G Elliott(IRE)||| J Kennedy |||14 |||6th Naas Nov Hdle (16)

    2016 |||1111 ||| Altior ||| 6||| 155 ||| 4/1 ||| N Henderson||| N de Boinville |||14||| 1st Kempton Nov H (14)

    2015 ||| 111 ||| Douvan ||| 5 |||155 ||| 2/1F ||| W Mullins (IRE) ||| R Walsh ||| 12 ||| 1st G2 Punch. Moscow Flyer (59)

    2014 ||| 111 ||| Vautour ||| 5 ||| 155 ||| 7/2JF ||| W Mullins(IRE) ||| R Walsh |||18 ||| 1st G1 Leop. Deloitte (30)

    2013 ||| 1231 ||| Champagne Fever ||| 6 ||| 148 ||| 5/1 ||| W Mullins(IRE) |||R Walsh||| 12 ||| 1st G1 Leop Deloitte (31)

    2012 ||| 2111 |||Cinders And Ashes ||| 5 ||| 142 ||| 10/1 ||| D McCain ||| J Maguire ||| 19 ||| 1st Haydock Nov Hdle (52)

    2011 ||| F311 |||Al Ferof ||| 6 ||| 142 ||| 10/1 ||| P Nicholls ||| R Walsh ||| 15 ||| 1st Newbury Nov Hdle (31)

    Evidence

    RATINGS - 6 of the last 7 won by horses already with a BHA Rating of 150. The only exception was Labaik's year when the top rated contender was Ballyandy on 147. And that was a disappointing version of this. In those past seven races, a total of thirteen horses came to this with a BHA rating of at least 153. Five won and four others were placed. Four qualifiers in 2020 including Shiskin and Abacadabras. Shiskin returned the outsider of the four on exchange prices.

     

    AGE - This century all bar two have been won by either a 5 or 6-year-old including all the last twelve. Won't be much of a filter. Six yr olds filled the top seven places last year and have won four of the last five.

     

    65 horses aged 7 and above have tried in the past 26. Like-a-Butterfly '02 (8 yrs) and Captain Cee Bee '08 (7yrs) both won when well fancied, Simple Arithmetic ’95 and Chauvinist ‘03 only others to get placed. Sondrio ’89 only other winner from this age group in past 40 odd years.

     

    No 4 yr old winner since Hors la Loi '99. Hors La Loi came from winning the 4 yr old Finesse on Trials Day. It was called the Summit Hurdle those days, was run on the mid December at Lingfield and he won by 16 lengths. Best since has been Binocular 2nd in 2008 He had come from winning the Adonis at Kempton. Fakir D'Oudairies 4th in 2019 backed down to 9/2 joint fav (along with a Betfair Hurdle winner, jeez) Couple of 4 yr old no hopers in previous two years, no triers in 6 years previous to that. 4 year olds get an 8lb allowance. Fakir ran here because the ill fated Sir Erec was meant to be a certainty for the Triumph.

     

    PRICE - Only 7 winning favourites since 1970 including five Irish trained. Before Douvan at 2s and Vautour (7/2 jt fav), Like a Butterfly, Back in Front and Brave Inca won when fav between ‘02 -‘04. Douvan, Like A Butterfly and Forest Sun in 1990 are the only 3 winning favourites of the last 16 to start 2/1 or less. Only 3 favourites have won from the last 21 which started shorter than 3/1. Asterion Forlonge 9/4. Getabird, Min, My Tent or Yours, Cue Card, Dunguib, Cousin Vinny, Amaretto Rose, Sweet Wake have been all shorties since 2004 and all turned over. The last 20 odd yrs has seen a big price spread of winners including 40s, 25s twice (Labaik) and 20s.

     

    Favs may not be winning but Labaik is the only winner above 12s in the last thirteen renewals.

     

    16 from last 19 winners started (at least) joint favourite on their previous run. Not Summerville Boy (8s in the Tolworth), Vautour nor Labaik (14s last time out).

     

    TRAINERS

     

    W MULLINS - IRISH TRAINED have won 12 of last 20 now with sometimes half the field (9 from 15 last year only 5 from 14 2019, 7 from 19 2018, 7 from 14 in 2017, 6 from 14 2016, 7 from 12 2015). 4 of the 12 were (at least) jt favourites, Klassical Dream was 9/2 joint fav in the morning, was returned 6/1. Champagne Fever returned 5/1 (was 12/1 in the morning), another was returned 17/2 and the rest of them were 10/1 and above (the three largest priced Irish winners were trained by W Mullins and G Elliott). Klassical Dream, Vautour, Champagne Fever, Like A Butterfly and Brave Inca came having won the Chanelle Pharma/Deloitte Novice Hurdle now at the Dublin Racing Festival. Douvan came here from winning the Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle at Punchestown, the fourth winner to come via that route. Min (2nd) took the same route. Melon (2nd) had only won a Leopardstown Maiden. Abacadabras won the Leopardstown G1 at Christmas. The Supreme is currently second most successful Festival race for Irish Trained runners after the Champion Hurdle. (2nd and 4th last year, winner 2018, a third in 2018, 1-2 in 2017, Min 2nd to Altior 2016, 1-2-3 2015, 5 of the first 7 home in 2013).

     

    Of the last 11 Irish Trained winners, eight were the most fancied in the market from the Emerald Isle.

     

    Retired of course but Ruby Walsh rode 6 of the last 15 winners. All from top three in the market. And three seconds with Melon, Min and Granit Jack in '07 who was beaten by Ebaziyan 40s (trained by W Mullins). Nico has two winners and a third from the last five.

     

    D McCain (Cinders and Ashes 2012) and Howard Johnson (Arcalis 2005) only northern trainers to taste success in the past 25 odd yrs. And I can't see that changing much.

     

    Paul Nicholls winners - Al Ferof 10/1 in 2011, Noland in ‘06. Also Granit Jack 2nd in '07 and two fifth places. (No runner last year, Grand Sancy 11th 2019, no runner in the previous four years, Irving ran a stinker in 2014, Dodging Bullets only 9th in 2013). No runners at all on the Tuesday in 2020, watched it from his local in Ditcheat.

    Shishkin joins Altior 2016 as Nicky Henderson's third winner after Flown ‘92. He does also have a very strong recent place record. In the last 13 renewals, 14 of his 24 runners were placed, four were priced over 10/1 including 2nd and 3rd in 2014. A 1-3-5 last year with Chantry House in 3rd, Angels Breath disappointed in 7th 2019, Claimantakinforgan 5th 2018, Buveur D'Air 3rd in 2017, L'Ami Serge 4th 2015 at 7/2. My Tent or Yours 2nd when fav 2013, Darlan 2nd at 7s 2012 and in 2011 Spirit Son 2nd at 5/1, Sprinter Sacre 3rd at 11s. Also in 2008 trained best 4 yr old performance in a while with Binocular 2nd.

     

    Nigel Twiston Davies has won this once with Arctic Kinsman in 1994. One third place since, Gatflax 16/1 1998. In the past 22 yrs, 9 runners, best Ballyandy 4th when jt fav in 2017. Five of the nine were no hopers. Al Dancer (10th, and fav), Ballyandy and Splash Of Ginge (15th) all came from winning the Betfair, Pigeon island (11th) had run a credible 5th at Newbury, then won a Dovecote before coming here. Post race, Nigel said after that Al Dancer 'may not have coped with the step up in class'. Never seems to mention that possibility beforehand about any of his horses...

     

    PREPARATION RACES - Apart from the Deloitte Novices Hurdle at Leopardstown, Royal Bond at Fairyhouse in December (Envoi Allen bt Abacadabras and Darvers Star last season, not bad form) and the Tolworth. These 3 races have produced 7 of the last 20 winners - Stat appeal may be limited as the last Royal Bond winner to double up was Like A Butterfly in 2000. Shishkin killed 'you don't win at Huntingdon and come to win here' stat.

     

    LAST RACE IN A HANDICAP - The Betfair Hurdle double has not been done but Kalashnikov, My Tent Or Yours and Get Me Out Of Here were all 2nd here after winning at Newbury. Also Ballyandy 4th here as 3/1 jt fav, Recession Proof 5th here in 2011 both after winning at Newbury. Darlan was 2nd here 2012 after being unlucky at Newbury. Of the last eleven Betfair Hurdles winners, eight were novices, seven came here. Apart from the three that finished 2nd in the Supreme, the other four unplaced. Make A Stand did win a Champion Hurdle after winning a Betfair Hurdle. Although this is a G1, the Betfair Hurdle does tend to be worth £15k+ more to the winner. Most important aim? Easier to win? Supreme more of an afterthought?

     

    Captain Cee Bee won a rated hurdle at Punchestown last time out, but apart from him, all the last 30 won by horses that competed in a Novice Hurdle last time. The last 68 English trained horses whose last run was in a non novice hurdle have been unsuccessful here. 24 of the 68 had gained at least a place in an all aged rated handicap hurdle. 2019 Grand Sancy won the Kingwell last time out as a novice, well beaten here.

     

    The Betfair Novice Hurdle at Newbury's February Meeting has featured Shadow Leader, Arcalis and Al Ferof. Cheltenham's 2 mile Novice in December has produced Noland, Al Ferof and Darlan. (Chantry House won both, 3rd here 2017 Pingshou December winner, unpl here then won at Aintree.

     

    Skybet Supreme Novices Trial on course in November has come to the fore, Altior won it and Summerville Boy finished second in 2017 2020 Hang In There, stuffed at Huntingdon, didn't come here.

     

    Summerville Boy 2018 was the first Tolworth winner to double up since Noland 2006. Fiddlerontheroof poor here last year. Only other Tolworth winner to actually come since 2006 was L'Ami Serge (4th to Douvan). Yorkhill 2016 won the Neptune, 3 other winners were unplaced in the Neptune. Finians Oscar won the G1 2m4f at Aintree. Those behind in Tolworths have begun to perform. Both Agrapart and Kalashnikov won Betfair Hurdles as novices, admittedly in Newbury swamps. Not from last years.

     

    FOR AUCTION NOVICE - Navan - November Abacadabras 2nd bt Latest Exibition in a 10 second slower time than Aramon won in 2019. There was a big difference in the state of the ground Soft/Heavy versus Good. Still a good time. Aramon won the For Auction in a faster time than Labaik did in 2016. Mengli Khan also won the For Auction before finishing 3rd here.

     

    Flown in 1992 is the last horse to win this after only one run over hurdles. Flown won the G2 Dovecote first time up. 1992 Festival ground may have been nearly good to firm suiting the flat breds. Melon 2nd 2017 after one maiden hurdle win. Flown also last Dovecote winner to double up. Last three Dovecote winners haven't come here, River Wylde 3rd 2017. Since 2007, apart from Mengli Khan 3rd 2018 and Labaik, only Binocular of the 54 triers who ran on the flat have gained a place in this.

     

    G2 2 mile Paddypower Novice Hurdle Naas late February. Only Go Native 2009 has done the double.

     

    Vulgan 1948 Div 1 Gloucester Hurdle won at Cheltenham after only one racecourse run ever. (thank you Rory Delargy).

     

    18 of the last 27 had been placed in G1 or G2 NH company. (Exceptions - Shishkin, only Listed win, Labaik G3 winner For Auction Novice, Arcalis (ex flat) who had finished 4th when highly tried as a 4 yr old novice in the Christmas Hurdle, Captain Cee Bee and Menorah, both ex bumpers who didn‘t race in a Graded NH race before Cheltenham). If you include Shishkin and Labaik, the last 10 winners had all 'strong' Novice Hurdle form. You would expect that.

     

    NH BREEDING? - Shishkin by Sholokov, sire of Don Cossack. On soft ground the ex bumper horses were a 1-2-3 last year just like the 1-2 in 2018. Before Labaik and all the W Mullins French breds, the usual Tuesday Good to Soft had strongly favoured the ex bumper horses over flat bred 11 winners from last 16. Altior is by High Chapparal which would suggest dual purpose sire at best. Ex bumper horses were 2nd and 3rd 2016, 2-4-5-6 in 2015, 1-3-4-5 in 2013, 1-2-3-4 in both 2012 and 2011. Before Labaik and Melon, in the last 9 yrs only flat bred to be placed was Binocular.

     

    COURSE FORM - From the last 29 only 6 were previous course winners (including Altior and Champagne Fever). However only 9 of the 29 had previously run at the course, the only non-winners were Summerville Boy (beaten twice that season in course Novice hurdles) Arctic Kinsman who slipped up in a bumper after 5 furlongs and Al Ferof who fell when cruising in a C&D novice hurdle and had been second in 2010 to Cue Card in the previous year's Bumper. Summerville Boy and Al Ferof only winners in the last 20 odd years to have previously run in but not win a course novice hurdle. Shishkin had yet to darken the door.

     

    This century all bar Summerville Boy and Labaik had won at least 50% of all UK and Ire hurdle starts. Summerville Boy was one from four (it was the Tolworth) Labaik was two from five. All had won at least once, No winner this century failed to finish last time out. Labaik did finish but after giving the rest 200 yds at the start.

     

    Only 3 of the last 17 winners were unbeaten over hurdles. 9 of the last 10 won last time out. This century all bar Labaik, Menorah '10 and Arcalis '05 had won last time.

     

    All bar Shiskin and Klassical Dream of the last 12 winners had all run in either 4 or 5 hurdles that season. Shiskin had three runs over hurdles, falling on the first of these. Klassical Dream had a total of 6 previous runs, 4 in France. A stat under pressure from Willie and Nicky.

     

    Since Destriero 1991, only Shiskin and Douvan (both 4 runs) has won this having had less than five runs in total as a racehorse, Flat and NH. Destriero ran twice, won a bumper and the Boxing Day maiden hurdle at Leopardstown. Turned up here and won by 4l at 6/1. Might have been a shilling or two on.
     

    Last amateur jockey to win this was Mr Dermot Browne on Browne's Gazette in 1984. Bless him. Backed Browne's Gazette that day. (And the year after in the Champion Hurdle, but I don't talk about it. Much).

     

    Beware overrating novices who have run well in Irish Champion Hurdle. There was a history (not recent) of young hurdlers running big races there only to fail here (and in the Triumph). Grand Sancy in the Kingwell would be a typical example. Those like Old Dundalk, Nordic Surprise, Finnegans Hollow, His Song (the latter two both close seconds to Istabraq in Irish CHs) didn't tend to totally reproduce it next time. 2020 Darvers Star 20/1 second to Honeysuckle rekindled the old stat but unfortunately not qualified for this as had won a hurdle the previous April. He did back his run up in the Champion Hurdle, though.

     

    34 of last 35 winners had won at least once previously. 32 of last 34 placed 1-2-3 last time, 26 won previous outing. Labaik burned the last two stats. None of the last 31 winners had more than 5 runs that season.

     

    SUPREME TIMES - 2020 4 mins 8 in soft ground, one second slower than Epatante an hour later. She carried 4lb less. 2019 4 mins dead, soft ground. 2018 4mins 5secs in heavy ground. 2017 3 mins 53 (we thought that was slow) 2016 3 mins 46, 2015 3mins 47, 2014 3mins 46 which is 5 secs faster than standard.

     

    PREVIOUS BEST TIMES - Shishkin had done 4 mins 3 for 2m and half a furlong at Newbury. Abacadabras 3.55 Leop G1 Xmas. Klassical Dream 3 mins 48 in the DRF G1. Summerville Boy's best time had been 4 mins 4 in the Tolworth. Labaik's previous best time 3.53 in Punchestown Maiden. Altior's was 3 mins 50 Kempton, Douvan's 4mins 5 secs soft ground Moscow Flyer G2 Punchestown, Vautour best 4 mins 22 secs for 2m 2f Deloitte.

     

    Best times this season so far, and there is plenty to choose from

    Tolworth 2m Sandown

    For Auction Hurdle 2m G1 Leopardstown Xmas

    2m 1f Chelt New

    G1 Leopardstown Feb

    Dovecote

    Royal Bond Fairyhouse.

     

    See Simon Rowlands Sectional Analysis on ATR

     

    2020 - 'SHISHKIN, a sectionals horse par-excellence, in that his fast late ones at Newbury had him as 141 minimum and his fast late ones at Huntingdon pushed him up to 155, despite the limitations of his rivals. He won both races by 11 lengths.'

     

    2020 Champion Bumper Form - Ferny Hollow from Appreciate It.

     

    2019 Champion Bumper - A very fair vintage. Envoi Allen carried all before him. 3G1s including the Ballymore. Blue Sari didn't do a lot but behind him were Thyme Hill, 3rd and Abacadabras 4th. The Glancing Queen in 5th won the G2 Mares Bumper at Aintree. Compare 2018 and Willie's Bumper 1-2-3, Relegate beating Carefully Selected with Tornado Flyer in third. They have yet to set the world alight. Felix Desjy 6th in 2018 won the Punchestown Moscow Flyer by an impressive 5l and then got an easy lead at Aintree.

     

    To try and put it into context, the 2012 race did produce Champagne Fever, The New One and Jezki. Champagne Fever only the second Festival Bumper winner to follow up in this race after Montelado in '93 though Back In Front finished 3rd in Bumper in '02. Six others of the last ten tried, Ballyandy 4th, Silver Concorde (finished last), Cue Card (4th), Dunguib (3rd), Cork All Star (7th) and Cousin Vinny (5th). Monsignor won Sun Alliance Novice Hurdle the year after his bumper win. The Champion Bumper has produced the winner of this in the three of the last nine Festivals, Al Ferof (2nd), Cinders and Ashes (5th), Champagne Fever. Shaneshill 2nd in the Supreme after being 2nd in the bumper. Ferny Hollow.

     

    Only 7 of the last 19 winners had competed in one of the big three, Cheltenham, Aintree or Punchestown Bumpers. Obviously the latter two didn't take place in 2020.

     

    BIG FIELDS - 16 of the last 20 winners had previously won in fields of at least 14 runners. But only Shishkin and Klassical Dream of the last six. All those 16 bar Shishkin, Altior, Douvan and Cinders and Ashes had been successful in fields of 16 runners. Summervillle Boy had won a Killarney lady riders bumper with 12 runners. Cinder And Ashes had been beaten a sh hd in a course bumper in a field of 16. Vautour had previously beaten a field of 29. Big field novice hurdles in UK not the norm these days.

     

    Klassical Dream joins Douvan, Vautour, Al Ferof 2010 and Hors la Loi '99 to be the fifth French Bred to win this. Binocular and Min also 2nd for the French. Hors and Binoc were 4 yr olds at the time. Shiskin and Summerville Boy, Irish bred.

     

    22 mares ran in past 26 races. 3 winners and two seconds. No winners since Like A Butterfly ‘02, Amaretto Rose placed ‘07. Heaven Help Us 100/1 last year 7th. God knows, with her G1 form, why Paul Hennessy didn't run her in the Mares Novice. Off 136 she would have been rated in the top half dozen. No mares ran in the previous 8 Supremes. Far less made of the Mares Novice than the Ryanair where there is a gap.

     

    AND THE REST - Klassical Dream, Douvan, Vautour, Champage Fever, Sausalito Bay. Indefence and Arctic Kinsman lead virtually the whole way. 7 from the last 26. Shishkin led 50 yds out. Labaik swooped at the last off a slowly run race. 21 of last 26 winners (all bar Altior, Boxing Day, Summerville Boy 66 days, Douvan 10th Jan, 59 days, Captain Cee Bee (November) and Cinders and Ashes 52 days) had previous run within 45 days of this race (to help that should mean 22rd January ish). Altior only the second winner from the last 25 not out this calendar year.

     

    BLINKERS/HOODS/CHEEKPIECES etc - No success from 37 triers since Flown 1992. 2017 Cilaos Emery, first time hood, 5th. Petit Mouchoir, hooded, unpl in 2016.

     

    This century 46 Beaten Favourites last time have run in this. Two winners Menorah 12s 2010 (beaten at 1/2 previous race) and Arcalis 20s 2005 (beaten at 11/8). Angels Breath unpl 2019, Claimantanforgan similar in 2018, likewise Cilaos Emery and Crack Mome in 2017, 3 tried in 2016 and filled the last three places home.

     

    NEXT RACE>

     

    Year |||2008||| 2009||| 2010||| 2011||| 2012||| 2013||| 2014||| 2015||| 2016||| 2017||| 2018||| 2019 |||2020

    No of races||| 25||| 26||| 26 |||27 |||27||| 27 |||27||| 27||| 28||| 28||| 28||| 28 |||28

    No of Winning Favs |||2||| 6||| 3.5||| 8 |||9 |||9 |||6.5||| 7 |||9.33||| 6||| 8 |||9 |||7.5

    Favs 3/1 and under (Winners) |||10 (1)||| 13 (5)||| 11 (2)||| 12 (4)||| 12 (4)||| 18 (9)||| 10 (4)||| 13 (6) |||15 (8)||| 15 (6)||| 12 (4)||| 14 (5) |||16 (2)

    Odds On Favs (Winners)||| 1 (0)||| 3 (1)||| 4 (1) |||2 (2)||| 5 (3)||| 3 (3) |||1 (1)||| 3 (2)||| 4 (3)||| 2 (1) |||6 (4) |||2 (1)||| 6 (1)

    Year ||| No of BFs ||| Festival Winners ||| SP Lay Profit to £1 stake

    2015 ||| 64 ||| 0 ||| +64

    2016 ||| 55 ||| 6 ||| +10.5

    2017 ||| 53||| 1||| +48.5

    2018 ||| 59||| 4||| +7.5

    2019 ||| 62||| 1||| +56

    2020 ||| 53 ||| 4||| +29.5

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Wealth Warning.  Any decisions made (or not) or the basis of any information in this site are the sole responsibility of the reader.  There is no obligation on me to follow my own advice.  I take no responsibility for (but am keen to hear of) any factual errors.  (Bgault01@gmail.com, @gaultstats). Previous years ‘stats on stats’ would suggest we may identify a decent priced winner from manageable groups every three or four races.  It is believed that Savello (2014 Grand Annual) took from Golden Chieftain (2013 3m hcap chase) the record for breaking the most stats in a race.  Stands now at 8.  Cole Harden equalised with 8 in the 2015 World Hurdle.  Remember, after you have cursed/laughed at me and given up totally on trends, they will come back to bite.  Always happens.  Usually on Gold Cup Day. 

Beware GO SEA - Groundless Optimism Syndrome Encouraged by Alcohol.  A Cotswold condition very common at this time of year.