• General Trends

    Musings that don't refer to any particular race.

    The table shows you the fate of the Festival SP favourites since 2002. The data collected on those 3/1 and under suggests that when the price reaches that level, value usually needs to be re-assessed. Level stake laying at SP of all 172 SP favs priced 3/1 and under since 2001 would have given you...
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    TOP FESTIVAL JOCKEYS - 2013 to 2017 - Walsh 22 wins, Geraghty 9, Russell 9, Scudamore 8, Cooper 8, Twiston-Davies 6, de Boinville 6, Townend 5, Codd 5. AP finally leaves the list. Davy, Tom Scu, Bryan and Sam stay steady. Nico supported by Nicky's firepower moves up. Barry was injured last year...
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    2018年2月14日
    TOP FESTIVAL TRAINERS - 2013 to 2017 - Mullins 30, Henderson 12, Elliott 12, Nicholls 9, Pipe 7, O'Neill 5 Willie Mullins continues to stride on from Nicky Henderson. Willie increases his lead from 8 to 18 winners in the last two Festivals over the 5 yr spread. He is about 13% winners per runners...
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    Nicky Henderson, all time top Festival Trainer with 58 Festival Winners, Racing Post 21st February 2018. 'You always say you'd settle for one and what you do settle for is a winner on day one. Its amazing what it does if you can get any winner on the first day.'   I said last year 'Watch for the...
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    2018年2月14日
    WEIGHT CARRYING IN HANDICAP CHASES - 57 of last 86 'normal' handicap chases at Festival have been won by horses carrying 11st or less including jockeys allowances. But only 1 out of 5 in each of the last four years, 4 out of 5 '13, 3 out of 5 in '12, '11 and '10, 4 out of 5 in ‘08 and '09, all...
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    Previous form at Cheltenham? - Always seen to be important, facts as follows. There have been 339 races in the last 13 Festivals. 112 won by previous course winners and 65 by those with placed course form. 125 others were won by horses who had never seen either the course or the discipline they...
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    RACING POST TIPPING.   What about Cheltenham 2017? Tom Segal is the most influential tipster in the UK and Ireland because his views change prices. Even at Cheltenham. It has lessened recently very few firms will stand the early morning prices any more (and will only let you a tenner on) but...
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    AGE IN CHAMPIONSHIP RACES. RUNS THAT SEASON BEFORE G1 attempt. R,F,U,P or B last time out? WHICH SIRES? 1st or 2nd last time out? AGE IN CHAMPIONSHIP RACES - Real class will usually bury stats. 162 horses have contested the four championship races this century when aged 10 or older. 159 were...
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Wealth Warning.  Any decisions made (or not) or the basis of any information in this site are the sole responsibility of the reader.  There is no obligation on me to follow my own advice (Gary).  I take no responsibility for (but am keen to hear of) any factual errors.  Previous years ‘stats on stats’ would suggest we may identify a decent priced winner from manageable groups every three or four races.  I tend to improve as a tipster as the week goes on, possibly too worried on the Tuesday.  It is believed that Savello (2014 Grand Annual) took from Golden Chieftain (2013 3m hcap chase) the record for breaking the most stats in a race.  Stands now at 8.  Cole Harden equalised with 8 in the 2015 World Hurdle.  Remember, after you have cursed/laughed at me and given up totally on trends, they will come back to bite.  Always happens.  Usually on Gold Cup Day

Beware GO SEA - Groundless Optimism Syndrome Encouraged by Alcohol.  A Cotswold condition very common at this time of year.