• Turners Novices Chase (The Golden Miller)

    All winners bar Samcro have been 6 or 7 years old

    11 of the 13 previously raced within 60 days of this

    All 13 winners ran at a previous Festival but only six were winning there for the second time

    Irish trained nine of the 13, eight of those SP no bigger than 4/1

    11 of the last 12 won their last completed chase

    Nine of the last 12 had won a Graded chase.

    11 of the 13 ran in a Graded chase last time

    Only Bob Olinger and Yorkhill had less than three previous chase runs. Both had won their two chases.

    Yorkhill the only one to win Ballymore/Turners in successive years

    Last nine rated at least 151 after mares allowance taken in.

    Only Defi Du Seuil had ran in either the PJ Moriarty or Scilly Isles G1 chases.

    26 G1 winning hurdlers have lined up, eight winners.

    Only three of the 14 M Pipe hurdle winners have returned the next year to contest a Festival novice chase. Two won and Galopin Des Champs fell at the last.

    Only three horses have completed the Drinmore/PJ Moriarty double and gone on to race at Cheltenham that year. None of them won.


    (If ever stats don't tell the true story it's the Turners with the 2022 fall of Galopin Des Champs).


    Going 13 years. 2 miles 4 furlongs. In 2014 became a Grade 1 (now making 14 in all). Had been a new race in 2011. As a G1 and G2 novice chase, from 2023 all carry 11st 7lbs, a 3lb rise. Mares receive 7lbs. The 2011 version was just OK but as the race has aged, quality has improved. With Vautour and Yorkhill it rose to a new level and that has been continued.


    Aged 6 or 7 years if raced at Festival last year. Irish trained shorties (sorry Jonjo) lead 9-4. Gordon and Willie Mullins have won five of the last nine. Quality course form becoming important or at least a Festival novice hurdle run last year. Ran at a previous Festival. Top rated has only won it once. Last eight rated at least 151 after mares allowances. Take on beaten favourites last time unless Mullins/Elliott, and those with less than 3 chase runs unless unbeaten. Has been placed in G1 chase or won at least a G3 last time. Scilly Isles form of questionable value. Not GB Bred.

  • Honours Board

    Year ||| Form ||| Winner||| Age ||| Weight ||| OR ||| SP ||| Trainer ||| Jockey ||| Runners ||| Last race (No of days)

    2023 ||| 1211 ||| Stage Star ||| 7 ||| 11-7 ||| 152 ||| 15/2 ||| P Nicholls ||| H Cobden ||| 7 ||| 1st Timeform Nov 2m 4f Chelt (47)

    2022 ||| 11 ||| Bob Olinger ||| 7 ||| 11-4 ||| 161 ||| 6/5 ||| H de Bromhead (IRE) ||| R Blackmore ||| 4 ||| 1st G3 Punch Nov 2m 4f (60)

    2021 ||| 131 ||| Chantry House ||| 7 ||| 11-4 ||| 151 ||| 9/1 ||| N Henderson ||| N de Boinville ||| 8 ||| 1st CL4 Nov Wetherby (29)

    2020||| 1F2 ||| Samcro ||| 8 ||| 11-4||| 157||| 4/1 ||| G Elliott (IRE) ||| D Russell |||10 ||| 2nd G1 Limerick 2m4f (77)

    2019||| 5121||| Defi du Seuil ||| 6 |||11-4 |||151||| 3/1F ||| P Hobbs |||B Geraghty ||| 10 |||1st G1 Scilly Isles Sandown 2m4f (40)

    2018||| 11211||| Shattered Love||| 7 ||| 10-11||| 144 ||| 4/1 ||| G Elliott (IRE) ||| J Kennedy ||| 9 ||| 1st G1 Leop 3m (77)

    2017 |||11||| Yorkhill |||7 |||11-4||| 155||| 6/4F |||W Mullins (IRE)||| R Walsh ||| 8 ||| 1st G3 Leop 2m 3f (53)

    2016||| 11F |||Black Hercules ||| 7 |||11-4||| 152||| 4/1CF ||| W Mullins (IRE) ||| R Walsh ||| 9 ||| F G2 Navan Ten Up 3m (32)

    2015 |||1121 ||| Vautour ||| 6 ||| 11-4||| 154 ||| 6/4F ||| W Mullins (IRE)||| R Walsh ||| 8 ||| 1st G2 Leop 2m 3f (53)

    2014 |||11321||| Taquin du Seuil |||7||| 11-4 |||147 ||| 7/1 ||| JJ O'Neill ||| AP McCoy ||| 12 |||1st G2 Haydock 2m 4f (54)

  • Evidence

    Some context re 'best novice in early December often isn't the best in March' Drinmore winners 0/17 at the Festival. Mighty Potter RIP a big disappointment at 4/6.



    2011 - AP got off the mark for the week on Noble Prince (rating 146, 4/1 2nd fav). He was an Irish Trained 7 yr old who hadn't been outside the first two on his three previous starts that season. His last two runs finished second in two Leopardstown Grade 1s over 2 miles. Wishful Thinking 2nd and fav top rated on 155. Winner had previously been 5th in a County Hurdle.


    2012 - Sir Des Champs a 6 yr old off 148 beats Champion Court 150. Winner unbeaten over 3 that season and 3/1 2nd fav. Previous two wins were small field Irish G2s over 2m 4f. Winner had won 2011 Martin Pipe Hurdle and then went on to be 2nd in 2013 Gold Cup.


    2013 - Benefficient 147 came back up the run in to beat Dynaste 161 by 4l. Had won a two finisher Irish Arkle as his prep. 20s was big. Seven yr olds filled the places. Bryan Cooper's career took off.

    2014 - Jonjo said it was his week's best chance and Taquin De Seuil 7/1 ridden by a very sore AP got up to beat Uxizandre. Taquin De Seuil won both here and at the Paddy Power Meeting 2013. Was a Class 2 Chase Course winner and over the trip. Rated 147. Won last time out.

    2015 - Ruby made all on Vautour, rating at the time of 154. Impressive. Backed from 5/2 to 6/4 during the day. A long way behind were Apache Stronghold and Valseur Lido beaten 15l. Ages of first three home were 6, 7 and 6 respectively. It was Vautour's third chase. Form figures 121. Came here from winning G2 over 19f at Leopardstown in January. 


    2016 - There was a mess at the start when Zabana unseated Davy Russell and Outlander was hampered. 7yr old Black Hercules jogged it. Off 152 backed down to 4/1 co fav of three. (the schroods said he should have been in the 4 miler but Willie knew better, 'he was too keen'), Bristol De Mai (top rated) caught L'Ami Serge for second on the run-in. That bit was a surprise.


    2017 - Willie had had no winners in the first two Festival days with Douvan (inj) beat at 1/4. On course I heard it said that Willie 'couldn't train and had actually lost the power of his legs.' A Thursday four timer settled that with three Grade 1s kicked off here by Yorkhill 6/4 fav.


    2018 - Gordon Elliott's first JLT with the mare Shattered Love at 4/1 outstaying the 3/1 fav Terrefort by 7 lengths.


    2019 - A good quality race. Defi Du Seuil 3/1fav had too much pace up the run-in for the front running Lostintranslation, the pair clear.


    2020 - Melon continued his fine Festival performances but Patrick just couldn't get my 25s back up on the line. I'm still not sure about that photo.. Two strides from making Samcro into the new Harchibald. Fine training and riding performances for both horses.


    2021 - 'Himself' or Envoi Allen fell at 8/15. Harry Skelton did a misjudged scalded cat on Shan Blue, Nico better paced on 9/1 Chantry House for Nicky H. Winner off 151. Only won a Cl4 novice at Wetherby last time.


    2022 - More drama. Galopin des Champs. Goodness.


    2023 - Drama continues. Harry Cobden, a fine front running ride on Stage Star. The 4/6 jolly and the 3/1 Appreciate It disappoint. Bookies beginning to like this race.


    THE DIPPER (no longer exists) - 2023 - The Real Whacker won the Brown Advisory.

    2022 - L'Homme Presse went to the Brown Advisory and won well.

    2021 this went to Wincanton where Messire Des Obeaux bt Protektorat. Tends to be over course and distance 1 January -

    2020 - Champ demolished the second last, Midnight Shadow RIP picked up the pieces

    2019 - Defi Du Seuil then won this

    2016 - Balklion finished 2nd then won RSA, Minella Rocco 6th went on to win NH Chase

    2014 - Taquin Du Seuil 2nd here then won Turners.


    THE DRINMORE - This century 17 winners of the Fairyhouse G1 have raced at the Festival. None of them have won. I Am Maximus. Not even Envoi Allen who started 2/11 at Fairyhouse and 4/9 here. Only Mighty Potter and Valseur Lido of the winners ran in this race. Mighty Potter badly disappointed and Vautour destroyed the latter. Willie's late change of mind must have delighted the O'Learys that day. Not. 2022 Beacon Edge went up in trip and finished 7th to L'Homme Presse. Coincidently, horses beaten in the Drinmore have done very well at the Festival. Recent examples include Gaillard Du Mesnil (NH Chase), Samcro (Turners), Ronald Pump, Discorama, Rathvinden, Road To Respect, Cause Of Causes, Apache Stronghold, Bostons Angel, Gabynako 2nd at 25s in the 2022 Arkle. Thank you Matt Tombs. The 2020 Drinmore winners did not oblige at Cheltenham but from three novices behind Envoi Allen in 2020, Assemble won the Kerry National and Coko Beach the Thyestes). Horses beaten in the Drinmore are 7/56 including winners of all four level weights novice chases. Found A Fifty, Letsbeclearaboutit.


    Gordon Elliott has trained seven winners of the Drinmore. Five of them came to the Festival. No winners. Against that he has won two of the last six Turner chases. (And Envoi Allen and Mengli Khan 3rd in another). Found A Fifty.


    Only three horses have completed the Drinmore/PJ Moriarty double and gone on to race at Cheltenham that year. Mighty Potter, Dorans Pride finished 3rd in the GC and Harbour Pilot unseated in the Broadway Ch.


    Samcro 2020 and Defi Du Seuil 2019 are the only winners not to run at the previous year's Festival. Samcro won the 2018 Ballymore and Defi won the 2017 Triumph. Chantry House was third in Shishkin's Supreme. Stage Star carried the Challow bogie to the Ballymore.


    IRISH TRAINED - Nine of the 13. Eight of those nine didn't start any bigger than 4/1. Gaelic Warrior


    W Mullins - Four out of the last 12, also Galopin des Champs aaagh, Melon allegedly second at SP 14s and four thirds including Asterion Forlonge 2021 at 14s. Appreciate 4th last year at 3/1. None of his winners priced bigger than 4/1.


    FESTIVAL HURDLE FORM - In 2011 1st, 2nd and 4th all ran well in three different 2010 Festival handicap hurdles. In 2012 first three home repeated the good runs of 2011 hurdles. Benefficient had been unpl behind Simonsig in Neptune. Placed horses 2013 had no festival hurdle form although Dynaste had been a seven length second to Big Bucks in a Cleeve Hurdle. 2014 only previous Festival form was Double Ross (3rd in this) filled a similar position in 2013 Martin Pipe Hurdle. 2015 Vautour had strolled home by 6l in the 2014 Supreme. 2016 didn't work. Black Hercules well beaten in an Albert Bartlett wins. L'Ami Serge, well punted only 4th in Supreme, placed 3rd in this.


    2017 Yorkhill completed a Festival double after his win in the Neptune in 2016. 2018 Shattered Love had been the Pricewise tip in the 2017 Ballymore, ran poorly there. All placed horses in 2018 had never run here before. As stated Defi Du Seuil won the Triumph two years before this, the placed horses had ran in the 2018 Supreme, Lostintranslation 7th and Mengli Khan 3rd. 2020 Samcro had won the Ballymore and Melon had been second in a Supreme and two Champion Hurdles. Faugheen finished 3rd and well, his Festival form.. .


    2021 Chantry House's 3rd to Shishkin, after Asterion Forlonge had taken out half the field. 2022 Both Galopin des Champs and Bob Olinger had won Festival Novice Hurdles in 2021. Hurdle form not to the fore in 2023. To summarise, six of the last nine have been placed at least in Festival novice hurdles. Five of those won G1 novice hurdles the year before, two of those over 2 miles. Gaelic Warrior 3rd in the Ballymore, Facile Vega 2nd in the Supreme


    26 G1 winning hurdlers have run, eight have won. All in the last 11 renewals. Three of the seven runners last year, finishing 1st, 3rd and 4th. 2022 Both Bob and Galopin Grade 1 winning hurdlers, the latter at Punchestown. Four qualifiers in 2021, including 2nd, 3rd and Envoi. Chantry House was one of those 'whatever he does over hurdles...' Mengli Khan 3rd 2019 had won a Royal Bond.


    The winners of all three G1 novice hurdles have never all returned to win their respective novice chase the next year. Envoi Allen missed the chance to scupper this. Not happening in 2024.


    HURDLE TIMES - Last Impair Et Passe three seconds faster than the Coral Cup. 2022 Hard to believe that Sir Gerhard would have been half a second slower than Commander Of Fleet after all that rain that fell between races. Bob Olinger's time in the Ballymore was four seconds faster than Heaven Help Us an hour later and no one could say that Ritchie Condon was hanging about. Envoi Allen's Ballymore time in the Ballymore was six seconds faster than that of Dame de Compagnie. This was the biggest difference between the two races in 17 years. Faugheen 2014 three seconds difference in 2014.


    7 year olds lead 6 year olds 9 - 3. Samcro was eight yrs of age. Five yr olds are 0-7


    The last 12 yr old to win any Novice race at the Cheltenham Festival was Beau Caprice in the Gloucester Hurdle (Supreme) Div 1 in 1966 (R Delargy). Faugheen in 3rd didn't achieve the feat in 2020 but it's a lovely stat.


    11 of the 20 G1 Chase winners to run have been placed at least. Not Mighty Potter at 4/6 last year, only 3rd of 7 runners. 2022 Only one qualifier, and Galopin fell at the last with the race at his mercy. Grade 1 winner Leopardstown Xmas. Neither Envoi, Shan Blue nor Itchy Feet made the places over the previous two races, Defi Du Seuil (winner) only qualifier 2019. Terrefort only qualifier in 2018, second.


    Samcro with eight is the winner with the most hurdle runs. Stage Star five, Bob and Galopin six each, Chantry three only, and the previous eight to Samcroe no more than seven hurdle runs in GB and IRE before going chasing.


    Eight of the 13 had already won a graded chase. Not Stage Star, came from the Timeform Nov H'cap on Trials day. Not Chantry, a couple of odds on novices. Not Samcro. Just a November beginners jog around Down Royal. Bob a Punchestown Grade 3.


    BF LAST TIME OUT - 22 beaten favs last time have run in this. Samcro joined Black Hercules as winners both 4/1. Appreciate It 4th. Had been BF 3rd Irish Arkle. Shan Blue, again too fast early, mugged by a poor jumping Sporting John in a Scillly Isles. Two BFs ran in 2019, both unplaced.


    Yorkhill is the only top-rated horse to win this. Allegedly Mighty Potter on 162 had 10lbs in hand last year. Handicapper had Galopin only 3 lbs ahead of Bob Olinger. 2021 Envoi Allen 164, 8 lbs clear of Chantry House. Faugheen 158 3rd, Real Steel finished 6th in 2019, top-rated off 152.


    The last nine winners rated at least 151 after Shattered Love's 7lb allowance taken into account. Stage Star 152.


    11 of the 13 SP no bigger than 15/2. Ten were novice hurdlers the previous season. Ten of the last 12 won last time out (Samcro 2nd and Black Hercules the exceptions). Seven of the 13 had finished in the first three in a Grade 1 chase (and Galopin). Defi Du Seuil won the Scilly Isles from Lostintranslation. Shattered Love won the G1 3 mile novice chase at Leopardstown Christmas. Yorkhill had yet to run in a G1 Chase but had won three G1 hurdles. Sir Des Champs had won a G2, and I think Black Hercules would have won a Navan G2 if he hadn't crumpled at the last.


    British Breds are 0-10. Notlongtilmay RIP


    Bob Olinger and Yorkhill only ones with less than three chase runs. Both had won two chases. Chantry and Samcro three, Defi had four. Samcro and Shattered Love hadn't been seen since Xmas, the other ten winners ran within 60 days, Stage Star 7, Bob Olinger 60, Galopin 39, Defi 40, Yorkhill 53, Black Hercules was 32.


    Of the 123 total runners, 21 hadn't completed all their chase starts. Two winners, Samcro and Black Hercules. Envoi Allen unbeaten in 11 NH runs before this. Cruel, cruel.game...


    Defi Du Seuil first to double up wins with the Scilly Isles Sandown though Terrefort and and Top Notch, winners at Sandown were both second here. Shan Blue and Itchy Feet disappointed, both for different reasons imho. L'Homme Presse went up in trip very successfully. Gerri Colombe not quite. None came from the PJ Moriarty/Flogas 2m 5f chase at Leopardstown yet though Galopin Des Champs....Outlander may also have been a little unlucky. He fell four out here when travelling well enough behind Black Hercules in 2016. Faugheen famously won at Leopardstown, third here. 2019 La Bague Au Roi went to Aintree. In 2018 Monalee and Al Boum Photo went to the RSA. behind Presenting Percy. Fact To File.