• Turners Novices Chase (The Golden Miller)

    All winners bar Samcro have been 6 or 7 years old

    10 of the 12 previously raced within 60 days of this

    All 12 winners ran at a previous Festival but only six were winning there for the second time

    Irish trained nine of the 12, eight of those SP no bigger than 4/1

    10 of the last 11 won their last completed chase

    Nine of the last 11 had won a Graded chase.

    All bar Chantry House ran in a Graded chase last time

    Only Bob Olinger and Yorkhill had less than three previous chase runs. Both had won their two chases.

    Yorkhill the only one to win Turners/Ballymore in successive years

    Last eight rated at least 151 after mares allowances.

    Only Defi Du Seuil ran in either the Pj Moriarty or Scilly Isles G1 chases.

    23 Grade 1 winning hurdlers have lined up, seven winners.

    Only three of the 14 M Pipe hurdle winners have returned the next year to contest a Festival novice chase. Two won and Galopin Des Champs fell at the last.

    Only two horses have completed the Drinmore/PJ Moriarty double and gone on to race at Cheltenham that year. Dorans Pride finished 3rd in the GC and Harbour Pilot unseated in the Brown Advisory Nov.


    (If ever stats don't tell the true story it's the Turners with the fall last year of Galopin Des Champs).


    Going 12 years. 2 miles 4 furlongs. In 2014 became a Grade 1 (now making 14 in all). Had been a new race in 2011. As a Grade 1 and 2 novice chase, all carry 11st 4 lbs. Mares receive 7lbs. The 2011 version was just OK but as the race ages, quality has definitely improving. With Vautour and Yorkhill it rose to a new level and that has been continued.


    Aged 6 or 7 years if raced at Festival last year. Irish trained shorties (sorry Jonjo) lead 9-3. Gordon and Willie Mullins have won five of the last eight. Quality course form becoming important or at least a Festival novice hurdle run last year. Ran at a previous Festival. Top rated has only won it once. Last seven rated at least 151 after mares allowances. Take on beaten favourites last time unless Mullin/Elliott, and those with less than 3 chase runs unless unbeaten. Has been placed in G1 chase or won at least a G3 last time. Scilly Isles form of questionable value. Not GB Bred.

  • Honours Board

    Year |||Form||| Winner||| Age||| Weight||| OR||| SP||| Trainer||| Jockey |||Runners ||| Last race (No of days)

    2022 ||| 11 ||| Bob Olinger ||| 7 ||| 11-4 ||| 161 ||| 6/5 ||| H de Bromhead(IRE) ||| R Blackmore ||| 4 ||| 1st G3 Punch Nov 2m 4f (60)

    2021 ||| 131 ||| Chantry House ||| 7||| 11-4 ||| 151 ||| 9/1 ||| N Henderson ||| N de Boinville ||| 8 ||| 1st CL4 Nov Wetherby (29)

    2020||| 1F2 ||| Samcro |||8||| 11-4||| 157||| 4/1 |||G Elliott(IRE)||| D Russell |||10 ||| 2nd G1 Limerick 2m4f (77)

    2019||| 5121||| Defi du Seuil |||6 |||11-4 |||151||| 3/1F |||P Hobbs |||B Geraghty ||| 10 |||1st G1 Scilly Isles Sandown 2m4f (40)

    2018||| 11211||| Shattered Love||| 7||| 10-11||| 144 ||| 4/1 ||| G Elliott(IRE)||| J Kennedy||| 9||| 1st G1 Leop 3m (77)

    2017 |||11||| Yorkhill |||7 |||11-4||| 155||| 6/4F |||W Mullins(IRE)||| R Walsh||| 8 ||| 1st G3 Leop 2m 3f (53)

    2016||| 11F |||Black Hercules||| 7 |||11-4||| 152||| 4/1CF |||W Mullins(IRE)||| R Walsh |||9 ||| F G2 Navan Ten Up 3m (32)

    2015 |||1121 ||| Vautour |||6||| 11-4||| 154 ||| 6/4F ||| W Mullins(IRE)||| R Walsh||| 8 ||| 1st G2 Leop 2m 3f (53)

    2014 |||11321||| Taquin du Seuil |||7||| 11-4 |||147 ||| 7/1 ||| JJ O'Neill |||AP McCoy||| 12 |||1st G2 Haydock 2m 4f (54)

    2013||| 21241||| Benefficient |||7 |||11-4 |||147||| 20/1 |||A Martin(IRE) ||| B Cooper||| 13 |||1st G1 Leop Irish Arkle (47)

  • Evidence

    Some context re 'best novice in early December often isn't the best in March' Drinmore winners 0/16 at the Festival



    2011 - AP got off the mark for the week on Noble Prince (rating 146, 4/1 2nd fav). He was an Irish Trained 7 yr old who hadn't been outside the first two on his three previous starts that season. His last two runs finished second in two Leopardstown Grade 1s over 2 miles. Wishful Thinking 2nd and fav top rated on 155. Winner had previously been 5th in a County Hurdle.


    2012 - Sir Des Champs a 6 yr old off 148 beats Champion Court 150. Winner unbeaten over 3 that season and 3/1 2nd fav. Previous two wins were small field Irish G2s over 2m 4f. Winner had won 2011 Martin Pipe Hurdle and then went on to be 2nd in 2013 Gold Cup.


    2013 - Benefficient 147 came back up the run in to beat Dynaste 161 by 4l. Had won a two finisher Irish Arkle as his prep. 20s was big. Seven yr olds filled the places. Bryan Cooper's career took off.

    2014 - Jonjo said it was his week's best chance and Taquin De Seuil 7/1 ridden by a very sore AP got up to beat Uxizandre. Taquin De Seuil won both here and at the Paddy Power Meeting 2013. Was a Class 2 Chase Course winner and over the trip. Rated 147. Won last time out.

    2015 - Ruby made all on Vautour, rating at the time of 154. Impressive. Backed from 5/2 to 6/4 during the day. A long way behind were Apache Stronghold and Valseur Lido beaten 15l. Ages of first three home were 6, 7 and 6 respectively. It was Vautour's third chase. Form figures 121. Came here from winning G2 over 19f at Leopardstown in January.


    2016 - There was a mess at the start when Zabana unseated Davy Russell and Outlander was hampered. 7yr old Black Hercules jogged it. Off 152 backed down to 4/1 co fav of three. (the schroods said he should have been in the 4 miler but Willie knew better, 'he was too keen'), Bristol De Mai (top rated) caught L'Ami Serge for second on the run-in. That bit was a surprise.


    2017 - Willie had had no winners in the first two Festival days with Douvan (inj) beat at 1/4. On course I heard it said that Willie 'couldn't train and had actually lost the power of his legs.' A Thursday four timer settled that with three Grade 1s kicked off here by Yorkhill 6/4 fav.


    2018 - Gordon Elliott's first JLT with the mare Shattered Love at 4/1 outstaying the 3/1 fav Terrefort by 7 lengths.


    2019 - A good quality race. Defi Du Seuil 3/1fav had too much pace up the run-in for the front running Lostintranslation, the pair clear.


    2020 - Melon continued his fine Festival performances but Patrick just couldn't get my 25s back up on the line. I'm still not sure about that photo.. Two strides from making Samcro into the new Harchibald. Fine training and riding performances for both horses.


    2021 - 'Himself' or Envoi Allen fell at 8/15. Harry Skelton did a misjudged scalded cat on Shan Blue, Nico better paced on 9/1 Chantry House for Nicky H. Winner off 151. Only won a Cl4 novice at Wetherby last time.


    2022 - More drama. Galopin des Champs. Goodness.


    THE DIPPER - 2022 - L'Homme Presse went to the Brown Advisory and won well.

    2021 this went to Wincanton where Messire Des Obeaux bt Protektorat. Tends to be over course and distance 1 January -

    2020 - Champ demolished the second last, Midnight Shadow RIP picked up the pieces

    2019 - Defi Du Seuil then won this

    2016 - Balklion finished 2nd then won RSA, Minella Rocco 6th went on to win NH Chase

    2014 - Taquin Du Seuil 2nd here then won Turners.

    The Real Whacker from a non staying Monmiral.


    THE DRINMORE - This century 16 winners of the Fairyhouse G1 have raced at the Festival. None of them have won. Mighty Potter. Not even Envoi Allen who started 2/11 at Fairyhouse and 4/9 here. To be fair to him only Valseur Lido of the winners ran in the Marsh where stablemate Vautour destroyed him. Willie's late change of mind must have delighted the O'Learys that day. Not. Last week Beacon Edge went up in trip finished 7th to L'Homme Presse. Coincidently, horses beaten in the Drinmore have done very well at the Festival. Recent examples include Samcro, Ronald Pump, Discorama, Rathvinden, Road To Respect, Cause Of Causes, Apache Stronghold, Bostons Angel, Gabynako 2nd at 25s in the 2022 Arkle. Thank you Matt Tombs. The 2020 Drinmore winners did not oblige at Cheltenham but from three novices behind Envoi Allen in 2020, Assemble has won the Kerry National and Coko Beach the Thyestes). Horses beaten in the Drinmore are 6/54 (12% profit) including winners of all four level weights novice chases. Gaillard Du Mesnil, Banbridge


    Gordon Elliott has trained six winners of the Drinmore. Four of them came to the Festival. No winners. Against that he has won two of the last four Turner chases. (And Envoi Allen).


    Only two horses have completed the Drinmore/PJ Moriarty double and gone on to race at Cheltenham that year. Dorans Pride finished 3rd in the GC and Harbour Pilot unseated in the Broadway Ch. Mighty Potter


    Samcro 2020 and Defi Du Seuil 2019 are the only winners not to run at the previous year's Festival. Samcro won the 2018 Ballymore and Defi won the 2017 Triumph. Chantry House was third in Shishkin's Supreme.


    IRISH TRAINED - Nine of the 12. Eight of those nine didn't start any bigger than 4/1. Banbridge


    G Elliott - Two of the last five and had Mengli Khan finish 3rd in another.


    W Mullins - Four out of the last 11, also Galopin des Champs aaagh, Melon allegedly second at SP 14s and four thirds including Asterion Forlonge 2021 at 14s and El Barra in last place 2022. None of his winners priced bigger than 4/1.


    FESTIVAL HURDLE FORM - In 2011 1st, 2nd and 4th all ran well in three different 2010 Festival handicap hurdles. In 2012 first three home repeated the good runs of 2011 hurdles. Benefficient had been unpl behind Simonsig in Neptune. Placed horses 2013 had no festival hurdle form although Dynaste had been a seven length second to Big Bucks in a Cleeve Hurdle. 2014 only previous Festival form was Double Ross (3rd in this) filled a similar position in 2013 Martin Pipe Hurdle. 2015 Vautour had strolled home by 6l in the 2014 Supreme. 2016 didn't work. Black Hercules well beaten in an Albert Bartlett wins. L'Ami Serge, well punted only 4th in Supreme, placed 3rd in this.


    2017 Yorkhill completed a Festival double after his win in the Neptune in 2016. 2018 Shattered Love had been the Pricewise tip in the 2017 Ballymore, ran poorly there. All placed horses in 2018 had never run here before. As stated Defi Du Seuil won the Triumph two years before this, the placed horses had ran in the 2018 Supreme, Lostintranslation 7th and Mengli Khan 3rd. 2020 Samcro had won the Ballymore and Melon had been second in a Supreme and two Champion Hurdles. Faugheen finished 3rd and well, his Festival form.. None of the rest of that year's field could hold a candle to their level of Festival hurdle form. Trifecta paid £258. No, never dawned on me either..


    2021 Chantry House's 3rd to Shishkin, after Asterion Forlonge had taken out half the field. 2022 Both Galopin des Champs and Bob Olinger had won Festival Novice Hurdles in 2021. To summarise, six of the last eight have been placed at least in Festival novice hurdles. Five of those won G1 novice hurdles the year before, two of those over 2 miles. Sir Gerhard, Banbridge


    23 G1 winning hurdlers have run, seven have won. All in the last ten renewals. Both Bob and Galopin Grade 1 winning hurdlers, the latter at Punchestown. Four qualifiers in 2021, including 2nd, 3rd and Envoi. Chantry House was one of those 'whatever he does over hurdles...' Mengli Khan 3rd 2019 had won a Royal Bond.


    The winners of all three G1 novice hurdles have never all returned to win their respective novice chase the next year. Envoi Allen missed the chance to scupper this. Not happening in 2023.


    HURDLE TIMES - Hard to believe that Sir Gerhard would have been half a second slower than Commander Of Fleet after all that rain that fell between races. Bob Olinger's time in the Ballymore was four seconds faster than Heaven Help Us an hour later and no one could say that Ritchie Condon was hanging about. Envoi Allen's Ballymore time in the Ballymore was six seconds faster than that of Dame de Compagnie. This was the faster difference between the two races in 16 years. Faugheen 2014 three seconds difference.


    7 year olds lead 6 year olds 8 - 3. Samcro was eight yrs of age. Five yr olds 0-7


    The last 12 yr old to win any Novice race at the Cheltenham Festival was Beau Caprice in the Gloucester Hurdle (Supreme) Div 1 in 1966 (R Delargy). Faugheen 3rd didn't achieve the feat in 2020 but it's a lovely stat.


    11 of the 19 G1 Chase winners to run have been placed at least. Only one qualifier last year, and he fell at the last with the race at his mercy. Grade 1 winner Leopardstown Xmas. Neither Envoi, Shan Blue nor Itchy Feet made the places over the previous two races, Defi only qualifier 2019, Terrefort only qualifier in 2018, second.


    Samcro with eight is the winner with the most hurdle runs. Bob and Galopin six each, Chantry three only, and the previous eight to Samcroe no more than seven hurdle runs in GB and Ire before going chasing.


    Eight of the 12 had already won a graded chase. Not Chantry, a couple of odds on novices. Not Samcro. Just a November beginners jog around Down Royal. Bob a Punchestown Grade 3.


    BF LAST TIME OUT - 21 beaten favs last time have run in this. Samcro joined Black Hercules as winners both 4/1. Shan Blue, again too fast early, mugged by a poor jumping Sporting John in a Scillly Isles. Two BFs ran in 2019, both unplaced.


    Yorkhill is the only top-rated horse to win this. Handicapper had Galopin only 3 lbs ahead of Bob Olinger. 2021 Envoi Allen 164, 8 lbs clear of Chantry House. Faugheen 158 3rd, Real Steel finished 6th in 2019, top-rated off 152.


    The last eight winners rated at least 151 after Shattered Love's 7lb allowance taken into account


    Ten of the 12 SP no bigger than 7/1. Nine were novice hurdlers the previous season. Nine of the last 11 won last time out (Samcro 2nd and Black Hercules the exceptions). Seven of the 12 had finished in the first three in a Grade 1 chase (and Galopin). Defi Du Seuil won the Scilly Isles from Lostintranslation. Shattered Love won the G1 3 mile novice chase at Leopardstown Christmas. Yorkhill had yet to run in a G1 Chase but had won three G1 hurdles. Sir Des Champs had won a G2, and I think Black Hercules would have won a Navan G2 if he hadn't crumpled at the last.


    British Breds are 0-9.


    Bob and Yorkhill only ones with less than 3 runs over fences. Both had won two chases. Chantry and Samcro three, Defi had four. Samcro and Shattered Love hadn't been seen since Xmas, the other ten winners ran within 60 days, Bob 60, Galopin 39, Defi 40, Yorkhill 53, Black Hercules was 32.


    Of the 116 total runners, 21 hadn't completed all their chase starts. Two winners, Samcro and Black Hercules. Envoi Allen unbeaten in 11 NH runs before this. Cruel, cruel..


    Defi Du Seuil first to double up wins with the Scilly Isles Sandown though Terrefort and and Top Notch, winners at Sandown were both second here. Shan Blue and Itchy Feet disappointed, both for different reasons imho. L'Homme Presse went up in trip very successfully. Gerri Colombe not entered. None came from the PJ Moriarty/Flogas 2m 5f chase at Leopardstown yet though Galopin Des Champs....Outlander may also have been a little unlucky. He fell four out here when travelling well enough behind Black Hercules in 2016. Faugheen famously won at Leopardstown, third here. 2019 La Bague Au Roi went to Aintree. In 2018 Monalee and Al Boum Photo went to the RSA. behind Presenting Percy.