• Brown Advisory Novices (Broadway Chase)

    The last 13 winners had between six and 13 runs in total over fences and hurdles

    All bar Don Poli of the last 16 aged 7 or 8 yrs.

    FRE breds 1 from 40 since 2006. L'Homme Presse.

    15 of the last 16 already 1st or 2nd in at least G2 chase. (Might Bite unlucky)

    Last eight all from the top three in the betting

    No mare has won since Brief Gale in '95.

    Don Poli only winner this century with only two previous chase runs

    Ballymore/Broadway double last achieved in 1988

    No winner since 2002 made their chase debut over 3 miles

    12 from the last 15 had won at least a Listed or £20k hurdle

    Nine from the last 11 rated at least 143 over hurdles

    This century only Champ came here to win on the back of a fall.

    This century only two failed to be 1st or 2nd last time out.

    13 of the last 16 had run at a previous Festival

    All 22 Kempton Kauto Star Ch winners to come here have been beaten

    G Elliott yet to win this

    Summary

    Race Distance - 3 miles and abt half a furlong. Winner will be 7 years of age or from the front of the market. Not the Feltham winner but could have been beaten in it. Will have been 1st or 2nd last time completed. Has been placed in a G1 or G2 chase. Last time out either won a graded chase over at least 2m 5f or was at least a ‘staying on’ placed over 3m. However first chase run was short of 3 miles. Will have run between three and five times over fences or be unbeaten and trained by W Mullins. May not be unbeaten over fences unless trained by W Mullins. Will not have finished unplaced in any completed chase start apart from their first one. Could be any price but fav not due. Won't be blinkered. W Mullins horse and other Irish trained to place at least. Not Northern trained. Winner not run for at least 24 days but has been out since Christmas Day. Probably a Novice hurdler last season. Likely to have a hurdle rating of at least 143. Listed or £20k winner over hurdles. Either a course winner or has strong Festival form from 2020. Between 6 and 13 runs in total over hurdles and chases. Likely NH sire and bred in Ireland. Check Albert Bartlett placings in 2019. Mullins, Henderson and Nicholls have strong win records. Elliott not so. No more than one career non-finish.

  • Honours Board

    Year |||Form||| Winner||| Age||| OR||| SP||| Trainer||| Jockey||| Runners ||| Last Race (No of days)

    2022 ||| 1111 ||| L'Homme Presse ||| 7 |||159 ||| 9/4f ||| V Williams ||| C Deutsch ||| 9 ||| 1st G1 2m 4f Sandown (39)

    2021 ||| 111||| Monkfish ||| 7 ||| 164 ||| 1/4F ||| W Mullins(IRE) ||| P Townend ||| 6 ||| 1st G1 Leop Flogas Ch 2m 5f (38)

    2020||| 11F||| Champ||| 8 |||153||| 4/1 |||N Henderson||| B Geraghty||| 10 |||F Chelt Dipper Ch 2m 4f (70)

    2019||| 22||| Topofthegame||| 7||| 155 |||4/1 |||P Nicholls||| H Cobden||| 12||| 2nd G1 Kempton Kauto Star Ch (77)

    2018||| 13112||| Presenting Percy||| 7 |||158||| 5/2F |||P Kelly(IRE)||| D Russell |||10 |||2nd Gowran Red Mills Ch 2m 4f (26)

    2017||| 21F1 |||Might Bite||| 8||| 154||| 7/2F||| N Henderson||| N de Boinville||| 12||| 1st Donc Nov Ch 3m (34)

    2016 |||4F121||| Blaklion||| 7||| 150||| 8/1||| N Twiston-Davies||| R Hatch||| 8 |||1st G2 Wetherby Towton Nov Ch (39)

    2015 |||11||| Don Poli||| 6 |||156||| 13/8F |||W Mullins(IRE) |||B Cooper||| 8||| 1st G1 Leop Topaz 3m Nov Ch (72)

    2014||| 2P1 |||O'Faolains Boy||| 7 |||144||| 12/1 |||R Curtis |||B Geraghty||| 15||| 1st G2 Ascot Reynoldstown Ch (25)

    2013||| 22123 |||Lord Windermere||| 7 |||145 |||8/1 |||J Culloty(IRE)||| D Russell |||11 |||3rd G1 Leop Flogas Ch 2m 5f (32)

  • Evidence

    AGE - Since Minnehoma ’92 all 32 horses aged nine years and older have been beaten. None ran the last five years. So close for Whisper 2017 but Might Bite would have been unlucky to lose that race. No qualifiers in the previous four years to that, Call The Police 3rd in 2012. 24 of last 29 winners were 7 or 8 years of age. Seven year olds have won 13 of the last 16. Exceptions were Champ and Might Bite both at 8 years, Don Poli at 6 yrs. You then have to go back to the 5yr old Star De Mohaison ’06 (with a big allowance). Three 6 yr olds, Florida Pearl ’98, Young Hustler ’93 and the Don in 2015. Those are the only three six year olds to have won since 1978. Capodanno 4th last year, Sporting John fell 2021, three six ran in 2020, best Alloha in third. 2019 Delta Work 3rd.

     

    5yr olds recently - None since Adriana Des Mottes 4th in 2015, Unioniste 3rd as fav 2012, Long Run 3rd 2010 at 11/4. Ten five year olds have run in the last 32 years, Star De Mohaison won and three others were placed. Star got a 10lb allowance in 2006. Now only 2lb and mares 7lbs. The three 6 yr olds winners were priced 11/8 fav, 9/4 2nd fav and 13/8 fav respectively in what were, with hindsight, uncompetitive renewals. A 1-2 for seven year olds in 2022, 2021, 2019 and 2018.

     

    PRICES - From '07 to '09 Cooldine, Albertas Run and Denman all won as jollies. Don Poli, Might Bite, Presenting Percy, Monkish and L'Homme Presse since. That's five in the last eight. Champ was morning paper fav, ended up third favourite. Going back, Nick Dundee, Royal Athlete, Mr. Mulligan, Harcon, Barton Bank, One Man, Keen Leader, Our Vic, Comply or Die and since 2009, Punchestowns, Time For Rupert, Long Run, Grand Crus, Unioniste, More Of That (6/4), Delta Work (15/8) and Alloha (5/2). These were all 3/1 or under and beat.

     

    24 of the last 30 were in the first four in the market. That means 6 weren't. Not a shock. Mind you, O'Faolains Boy, 12/1 in 2014 is the only winner above 8/1 in the last eleven. Might suggest we are due another one.

     

    THE REYNOLDSTOWN, YE OLDE BOGEY RACE - O'Faolains Boy 2014 joined Albertas Run 2008 in completing the Reynoldstown/Broadway double, first since Killiney ’73. 22 have tried, 11 started favourite at Cheltenham, only 6 others achieved a place. Last year Does He Know went to the Ultima well beaten by Corach Rambler who had fallen at Ascot. 2021 Remastered went NH Chase 5th, 2020 Copperhead 6/1, fell when beat. Mister Malarkey 4th 2019, Black Corton, fifth to Presenting Percy 2018. Bobs Worth '12, Nahthen Lad '96, Envopak Token, The West Awake and Kildimo all beaten in the Reynoldstown went on to win at Cheltenham. Ms Parfois, 2nd at Ascot, just outstayed by Rathvinden in the 4 miler.

     

    Back to the Reynoldstown. In 2016 Vyta Du Roc won at Ascot but 5th here. Minella Rocco (2nd at Ascot) took the 4 miler and Ballyalton (F) won the 2m 4f nov h'cap. Since 1996 only 10 horses have ran in the Broadway Chase after being beaten in a Reynoldstown. Bobs Worth only winner. Nothing beat at Ascot in the last three years came to this race.


    THE NEW BOGEY RACE - All 21 Kempton Feltham (now the Kauto Star Novices Chase) winners to come here have failed to do the double. Some have said this stat survives thanks to Darryl Jacob wrestling Might Bite to the ground at the last fence in the 2016 Kempton race when 'slightly' ahead of Royal Vacation. Otherwise this stat may have been consigned to dust. Bravemansgame a late withdrawal due to the ground. Ahoy Senor was second in both races. 2021 Shan Blue went unsuccessfully to Aintree. 2020 Slate House won at Kempton and then finished a distant last in this. I've stopped backing Slate House at last. In 2019 La Bague Au Roi took the easier 68k at the DRF, then Aintree. 2018 Topofthegame was second at Kempton and won here. Kempton 2017 Black Corton beats Elegant Escape and then only 5th to Presenting Percy. Another fortunate winner at Kempton after Fountains Windfall RIP fell going strongly 4 out. Annacotty well beaten here 2014, 2012 Dynaste was beat in the Jewson. Even Trabolgan the '05 RSA winner was beaten a short head at Kempton before coming here.

     

    It's an oft-quoted stat - Kauto Star winners are 0/21 in the Broadway, finishing 65P84366326 this century The last 6 winners to take on horses they beat at Kempton: Black Corton Royal Vacation Annacotty Grands Crus Joe Lively Ungaro all had the form turned round at Cheltenham. Thyme Hill 15 lengths from McFabulous.

     

    Last 19 Broadway (RSA) winners all placed at least in a Grade 1 or 2 chase. Not Might Bite but I am going to give it to him (Kempton). L'Homme Presse won a Dipper and a Scilly Isles. Monkfish two Leopardsown G1s, Champ fell in the Dipper but had previously won the G2 Berkshire Ch at Newbury. Presenting Percy second in G2 RedMills at Gowran. Blaklion won the G2 Towton at Wetherby.

     

    This century 'second season' novice chasers are 4 from 14. Gaillard du Mesnil

     

    Last season's Neptune Hurdle winner hasn't figured in the finish of this since The West Awake achieved the double in 1988. Both Denman and Champ finished 2nd in the Ballymore, before winning this. Samcro, Faugheen, Yorkhill went the Turners route. Envoi Allen fell in the Marsh at 8/15. Sir Gerhard

     

    Red Mills Chase Gowran Park over 2m 4f has been going since 1990. Presenting Percy the first to run there and then win here. At Gowran he was second to Our Duke on heavy ground. Presenting Percy also damaged the stat that 'In all Grade 1 chases going back to 2005 of the last 50 to have run on heavy ground in the last 30 days, only 6 placed, no winners.'

     

    Topofthegame joined Don Poli to be the exceptions in the last 57 winners had a run since 31 December. Don Poli won G1 Leopardstown on the 29th December. Goes back to Boxing Day now, that stat. Champ fell in the Dipper on New Year's Day.

     

    NORTHERN - For once, Ahoy Senor 2nd last year flying the flag for those stables north of the Watford Gap. 2020 Aye Right came down from Jedburgh. Rated 146 100/1 5th of six finishers. Apart from Hussard Collonges’ success in 2002, Royal Emperor placed ‘04 and According To John's 3rd in '07, 32 other Northern based have failed to reach frame in the last 15. Those to flop recently include Seeyouatmidnight, Corrin Wood, Vintage Star, Mr Moonshine, Wymott. '10 legend Knockara Beau finished 4th. 2020 Aye Right came down from Jedburgh. Rated 146 100/1 5th of six finishers. None 2021 and none in the previous three years before Aye Right.

     

    FORM Last time out - 43 from last 48 winners were 1st or 2nd last time (exceptions Kildimo 4th in a Reynoldstown, Lesley Ann Fell, Hanakham, 3rd in the Wincanton Gold Cup Trial and, after a gap of 16 yrs, Lord Windermere 3rd G1 PJ Moriarty, then Champ F). The better stat is that this century all bar Champ, Lord Windermere and Lord Windermere finished 1st or 2nd last time out.

     

    27 of last 30 had run no more than 5 times over fences. 27 from last 29 had run at least three times over fences (Topofthegame, three chases over two seasons). Exceptions to last Florida Pearl and Don Poli - but they were unbeaten over 2 chases. W Mullins doesn't care about stats,

     

    5 of the last 7 Irish Winners ran in the Flogas/Ladbrokes Chase on Dublin Festival Day. Monkfish first since Lord Windermere in 2013. Monalee was second at Cheltenham to Presenting Percy. Galopin des Champs, Faugheen went Marsh Chase instead.

     

    Neville Hotels Chase Xmas Leopardstown - Monkfish, Bostons Angel and Don Poli won both, No More Heroes 4th at Cheltenham when 5/2, Delta Work third when fav. 2020 Battleoverdoyen 7s, a distant 4th in the Broadway. Fury Road a late NR last year. Gaillard du Mesnil

     

    Young Hustler '93 last horse to win this with more than 10 previous chase runs. He had run in 13 chases. That's a lot.

     

    L'Homme Presse and Champ joined Lord Windermere, Cooldine, Brief Gale, Florida Pearl and Star De Mohaison to be the only 7 of the last 36 winners yet to be tried in a chase over at least 3 miles. L'Homme Presse had come from winning a Grade 1 Scilly Isles. Champ's ability to stay won it for him. Had won the 3m G1 Sefton Novice Hurdle at Aintree. From Cooldine backwards, they all won their previous start, all bar Star in a Graded race. Lord Windermere's notes say 'kept on well' in Moriarty. To be honest, you wouldn't have backed him in a fit three out here until Boston Bob fell at the last, with the race at his mercy. Of the other 29 of these only Topofthegame, Hussard Collonges (2nd twice, ‘staying on’), Nahthen Lad and Bobs Worth (both 2nd in a Reynoldstown) and Trabolgan (short head 2nd in a Feltham) had not been successful over that chase distance. Bobs Worth had won an Albert Bartlett.

     

    No winner since Hussard Collonges 2002 made their chase debut over 3 miles.

     

    Seven of the last 13 were beaten on chase debut.

     

    17 from last 23 'raced up with the pace' or 'tracked leaders'. L'Homme Presse led from the 7th fence. Champ not so, neither Percy. Monkfish and Might Bite very much so. Not O'Faolains Boy, Weapon's Amnesty, Bobs Worth or Lord Windermere. Last 23 hadn't run within the last 24 days. Percy and O'Faolains Boy at 25 days the most recent runner of the 23 (and he would never have won if Smad Place had been allowed to go on and make the pace. But time for me to let that one go...

     

    Last 24 winners had 85 completed starts over fences. Only seven unplaced completions, three of which were in Irish Grade 1 Chases. Lord Windermere 3rd of 6 beaten 1/2 length. Might Bite made a hash of the last when 2nd of 3 in his first chase, Blaklion was 4th of 7 in his, O'Faolains Boy was 2nd of 4 in his first chase. L'Homme Presse, Monkfish, Don Poli, Denman, Florida Pearl, and Rolling Ball in 1991 the last six to have 100% success rate over fences before this race. L'Homme Presse Monkfish Don Poli and Denman the only four in the last 16.

     

    The last 13 had all between 6 and 13 runs in total over hurdles and chases. L'Homme Presse 8, Monkfish 11, Champ 12, Topofthegame 10, Percy 13, Might Bite 9.

     

    Last 25 had made chase debut before Christmas

     

    THE LETTER F - Champ and Might Bite the first since Hussard last one to fall in any of their last three starts. Blaklion only other one in the last 11 to have fallen that season.

     

    No mares have won since Brief Gale in '95. 11 have tried. (None last three years, Drinks Interval 100/1 PU 2019, Briery Belle 25s and PU 2017, Adriana Des Mottes in 4th in 2015, only ones to run in last decade. The latter ran when as a five year old and got a 9lb allowance).

     

    BLINKERS CHEEKPIECES etc - No headgear winners in last 21 - Last year Beacon Edge alone in pieces, 7th and last. Castlebawn West well beat 2020, Delta Work 3rd 2019 in his usual hood, Full Irish PU 2017 Royal Vacation PU regularly wore blinkers. In 2019 five of the 11 runners wore some sort of headgear but neither of the first two home.

    BEATEN FAVS LAST TIME - Best race in Festival this century for beaten favourites last time winning. 4 from 27 qualifiers. Champ had been 4/9 in the Dipper when demolishing 2 out, Presenting Percy had been evens fav at Gowran. First since Trabolgan 2005 then Hussard Collonges in 2002. no qualifiers 2022.

     

    BREEDING - 28 of last 30 NH Bred. 21 from last 27 Irish NH Bred (Monkfish by Stowaway, Champ by Kings Theatre, Topofthegame by Fleminsfirth, Presenting Percy by Sir Percy (GB), fast ground Derby winner. Might Bite by Scorpion, Irish Bred. Blaklion by Kayf Tara (GB), Star De Mohaison and Hussard Collonges the French-bred exceptions. French Breds are now 0-36 over the last 15 years. Eklat De Rire F10s, last year only qualifier of the 6 runners. Bostons Angel sired by Winged Love, a dual-purpose sire).

     

    FRE BREDS - L'Homme Presse puts the stat to bed. One of four last year with Gaillard Du Mesnil 3rd and Farouk D'Alene falling when well in contention. FRE breds are now 1-40 since Star de Mohasion 2006, Hussard Collonges 2002 before that. 2021 Eklat De Rire F 10s, the only qualifier of the 6 runners. Allaho 5/2f (didn't stay?) and Easy Game F 10s, Delta Work 15/8f, Black Corton 5/1, Whisper 5/1, Accapella Bourgeoise 5/1, Roi Des France 10/1, Smad Place 13/2jf, Unioniste 5/2f, Grand Crus 6/5f the most recent shorter priced ones to try and not succeed. Gelino Bello, Gerri Colombe, James Du Berlais. 

     

    7 of the last 16 had won an Irish p2p.

     

    Since '94 no ex Flat horse has gained a place.

     

    TIMES - L'Homme Presse 6 35 in worsening conditions. Monkfish 6 11 in G to S Champ 6 29 in soft, 2019 6 17 in soft, 2018 6 32 also in soft, 2017 6 09 including that bit when Might Bite went missing. 2014's fast time of 6 mins dead would confirm a good pace and good ground. O'Faolains Boy, surprisingly for a son of Oscar, hadn't run over good ground since he won an Irish point.

     

    Conclusion - Previous times have not been much help as an indicator. However, let's not be negative. Best times for this years candidates so far:-

     

    Kauto Star - Thyme Hill 6 07 nine secs slower than Bravemansgame an hour later.2021 BMG had been 3 secs slower than Tornado Flyer. 2020 Shan Blue 2 secs faster than Frodon.

    Leopardstown Ladbrokes/Flogas

    Leopardstown Neville Hotels Chase Xmas Galliard du Mesnil 6 18 on soft, Fury Road 6 20 Monkfish 6 24, both on yielding ground

     

    COURSE FORM - Six of last 18 placed at least in a course chase that season but only L'Homme Presse and Blaklion of the last 11. Haven't included Champ in the six even though he was coming to win theDipper. Had been second in the Ballymore. Monkfish won an Albert Bartlett. Topofthegame had been touched off in the previous year's Coral Cup at 9/1. Percy strolled the Pertemps in 2017. Might Bite had won a £10k novice hurdle but had not impressed in two attempts at course novice chases. Bostons Angel PU in an Albert Bartlett, Cooldine 7th in the Bumper 2 years previous, Lord Windermere had never been here before, O'Faolains Boy 17l 4th in Albert Bartlett. Don Poli won the Martin Pipe hurdle. Ten of the last 11 winners either a C win or strong form from the previous Festival.

     

    13 of the last 16 had run at a previous Festival. Not L'Homme Presse, Might Bite nor Lord Windermere.

     

    Topofthegame joins Might Bite as being the first since Lord Noelie '00 to have raced two seasons over hurdles. The latter two had only one hurdle in one of those seasons. Topofthegame came back to hurdles from one unsuccessful chase. Rolling Ball in 1991 was the last winner of this to have previously spent two full seasons over hurdles.

     

    HURDLES RATING - Only L'Homme Presse (130) of the last eight not rated at least 143 over hurdles (Monkfish 152, Champ 152 Topofthegame 154, Percy 157, Might Bite 148, Blaklion 144, Don Poli 153. O'Faolains Boy 4th in an Albert Bartlett under 143, Lord Windermere 135, Bob Worth 150+ Bostons Angel 139, Weapons Amnesty 140+), 11 before that weren't. Galliard du Mesnil 150, Minella Crooner 146, Classic Getaway 139.

     

    26 of last 29 were novice hurdlers the previous season. Not Topofthegame. Sir Gerhard.

     

    The winners of all three G1 novice hurdles have never all returned to win their respective novice chase the next year. Not happening in 2023 either.

     

    ALBERT BARTLETT G1 HURDLE - Going 18 years. Blaklion, Bostons Angel and O'Faoloins Boy were beaten in the Albert Bartlett before coming to win this race. Monkfish, Bobs Worth and Weapons Amnesty both did the double. Minella Indo and Alloha did justice for the AB in 2020. Santini and Monalee placed in both races. Elegant Escape placed here after finishing 7th in an Albert Bartlett. No More Heroes 4th here after being 3rd in AB. That's 6 winners from the last 13. Last year Streets Of Doyen and Threeunderthrufive unpld. Ramillies, Journey With Me, Minella Cooner

     

    12 of the last 16 winners had all won listed/graded races over hurdles (not L'Homme Presse, Might Bite, O'Faolains Boy or Bostons Angel. Might Bite had won a £20k Cl2 at Kempton). Champ an Aintree G1. L'Homme Presse had only won a Chepstow nov h.

     

    Naas Business Club Novices Chase G3 January. No winner has come from that race. Most tend to go to the 4 miler. Wounded Warrior was third to Don Poli in 2015 after winning at Naas. Farouk D'Alene was second at Naas and might have been close here.

     

    TRAINERS - Nicky Henderson has now trained four winners including three of the last 11. And a second with Santini. Paul Nicholls has won three '06, '07 and 2019. All three winners ran at Exeter before the New Year. McFabulous, Stage Star, Gelino Bello.

     

    IRISH TRAINED - Willie Mullins ha trained five winners. Moves one ahead of Nicky H and Fulke Walwyn top the all-time Broadway leaderboard. Of Willie's other 20 runners in this, three were second, four thirds and two fourths. (Gaillard 3rd last year with Capodanno 4th, 2020 Alloha 3rd , no runner 2019, Al Boum Photo fell in third at the second last in 2018, Bellshill 3rd 2017, Shanehill 2nd 2016, 2015 Don Poli, 2014 Ballycasey 4th, 2013 Boston Bob fell 2 out when right there, 2012 Call The Police 3rd.

     

    Only 7 Irish trained victories since 1985 but 7 of the last 14 and four runners-up in Minella Indo, Shaneshill, Horner Woods and Lyreen Legend, 3rds in 2014 with Morning Assembly and with Delta Work, Alloha. All bar Presenting Percy of the last 7 Irish trained winners finished in the first three at Leopardstown over Christmas, four in a 3m G1, one in a 2m 1f G1 and one in a beginners chase. Gaillard du Mesnil.

     

    The last seven Irish trained were from 5 different trainers. Five of the Irish winners ran in PJ Moriarty/Flogas at Leopardstown DRF. Not Percy, not Poli.

     

    Gordon Elliott has yet to win this. However, Davy Russell was good at it. 12 rides, 3 wins, 4 placed, Farouk fell last year. Nico has had 3 rides, resulting in 2 wins.
     

    NEXT RACE>

     

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